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HD Talk The place to discuss HD DVD, Blu-ray and all other forms and formats of HD and HDTV.

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Old 12-15-16, 03:32 PM   #26
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

Yeah, eventually, most people (everyone?) will have 4K TVs (my next one will be) and UHD players will be ubiquitous. So UHD discs will be the only logical choice left. BUT, I (and many others) aren't re-buying most (any?) of our blu-rays as UHD discs.
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Old 12-15-16, 03:37 PM   #27
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by AaronSch View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomStranger View Post
I expect about 50-60% of Blu-ray consumers will eventually migrate to UHD...
And that assumption is based on what evidence?
Flipping a coin?

Rolling two 10-sided dice?

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Old 12-15-16, 03:41 PM   #28
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Yeah the political sub-forum is crazy busy right now. How times have changed.
Wonder if this message board would be complete dead, if the "other" section didn't exist at all.
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Old 12-15-16, 03:49 PM   #29
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by AaronSch View Post
I've bolded text for emphasis. The word "most" does not mean "all." That's for Adam.
I'm wounded. While you're at it, could you clarify this?

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Originally Posted by AaronSch View Post
Adam took this discussion down a road that happens so often in public discourse. Focus on one statement like a laser beam to discount the overall argument I was making. It's disingenuous and intellectually dishonest.
I certainly don't want to be intellectually dishonest, so if you could explain how I'm discounting your overall argument (bearing in mind that I have limited expectations for UHD BD sales and am not making any outrageous claims about the quality relative to BD), I would appreciate it. I'll take that into account in the future.

On another note, if you could provide some information about UHD BD being forced down people's throats, in particular the many who resent that fact, that'd be great too. Thanks!
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Old 12-15-16, 04:17 PM   #30
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

The fears surrounding UHD-Blu right now echo a lot of the same discussions back in 2006-2009 about Blu-ray. I had my share of resistance too.

The introduction of 1080p had the added advantage of enticing consumers with a slim, wide TV replacing their bulky CRT TV - which I think was probably more compelling than the HD specs themselves.

For me, the prices dropping and availability of titles eventually roped me in.

Today, I still buy more DVDs than I do Blu-ray simply because DVD has more titles and they're cheaper. When I see a title like "Invaders From Mars" (1986) on DVD for $2, I buy it. The same title, if you can find it, on Blu-ray is $20+ - I'm not going to pay that much for a title like that.

For me, 4K-UHD is a drug I don't want to get addicted to. I've bought titles in VHS, DVD & Blu-ray and I really don't care to subscribe to the fruitless quest for "the best" while discarding hundreds of perfectly good discs for a slight uptick in quality.

I recently bought "Uncle Buck" on Blu-ray for $2. I played the DVD and then the Blu-ray on my 40" Sony from 7 feet back and I honestly couldn't differentiate one from the other. "Uncle Buck" is obviously not a great example but on a modest system, the DVD looks just fine.
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Old 12-15-16, 04:35 PM   #31
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by orangerunner View Post
The fears surrounding UHD-Blu right now echo a lot of the same discussions back in 2006-2009 about Blu-ray. I had my share of resistance too.
(From an historical perspective).

My primary resistance to hd-dvd and bluray a decade ago, was from reading the technical descriptions of the AACS encryption system. At the time, I knew very well that there would be no easy way to directly crack the government grade AES encryption used in AACS. (In contrast, the dvd CSS encryption algorithm was so poorly designed, that it could be cracked very easily within seconds using a "known plaintext attack").

Besides apathy, my secondary resistance to 4Kbluray nowadays still has to do with the 4Kbluray encryption system not being easily cracked.
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Old 12-15-16, 05:02 PM   #32
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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I'm wounded. While you're at it, could you clarify this?
Nope, I have no desire to get into a pissing match with you. It's just not worth the effort.
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Old 12-15-16, 05:04 PM   #33
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by PhantomStranger View Post
I expect about 50-60% of Blu-ray consumers will eventually migrate to UHD. The others will shift toward streaming platforms.
I think you're being very generous with those numbers. I'd be surprised if more than 25% migrate over.

Anecdotally (and not really related to the migration predictions), I only recently realised that 4 different friends/co-workers had no idea UHD-BD even existed. They all have Blu-Ray players and 2 of them actually have 4K TVs - but none of them knew about UHD-BD. They weren't interested in it anyway after I informed them about it - as they all moved onto streaming anyway and don't buy discs anymore.

It appears the studios need to do more marketing if they want to have any shot at all with this format.
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Old 12-15-16, 05:14 PM   #34
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by Coral View Post
Anecdotally (and not really related to the migration predictions), I only recently realised that 4 different friends/co-workers had no idea UHD-BD even existed.
It's pretty easy to miss. I haven't seen a single TV spot. I don't think any of the regular Blu-ray discs I've picked up have had any inserts or anything plugging UHD BD. Ditto for the on-disc promos we used to get about Blu-ray. I've seen plenty of 'em in all sorts of stores, but by and large, they haven't been showcased with any real fanfare. Even when you're searching Amazon for a movie, the UHD BD version will often just be listed as "Blu-ray" in the list of different formats, with the "Ultra HD" part in less prominent print afterwards.

I could very easily imagine people who don't keep up with this sort of thing having no idea it exists.
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Old 12-15-16, 05:27 PM   #35
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

I might have started buying 4K discs on more than just exclusive Steelbooks if it only required me to upgrade my TV eventually. But since I'd need to replace my Xbox One (not a big deal), upgrade my receiver and replace all my connections to and from my mounted TV, there's just no way I'd ever be interested in doing that.
Blu Ray and HDTV is certainly "good enough" for me.
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Old 12-15-16, 06:17 PM   #36
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

Yes, I know, this chart has been around forever. Lest we forget:



Hell, at a bit over 10' viewing distance I'm barely seeing the benefit of 1080p! But if I ever move out of my house and into a studio apartment I'll run out and get a new display and UHD player for sure! To quote John Adams, "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."

Last edited by AaronSch; 12-15-16 at 06:49 PM.
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Old 12-16-16, 10:00 AM   #37
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

That chart generally leads to huge debates in the Home Theater community which we don't need to get into here. However, I would like to say that for many of "us" the 4K resolution (or lack thereof on many titles) of UHD isn't the most important aspect of it. For many, it comes in behind HDR, WCG and Object Based Sound (Dolby Atmos/DTS:X).
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Old 12-16-16, 10:33 AM   #38
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by BSTNFAN View Post
That chart generally leads to huge debates in the Home Theater community which we don't need to get into here. However, I would like to say that for many of "us" the 4K resolution (or lack thereof on many titles) of UHD isn't the most important aspect of it. For many, it comes in behind HDR, WCG and Object Based Sound (Dolby Atmos/DTS:X).
Yes, I would say that 80% of the visual upgrade is the HDR and the WCG/10 bits that go along with it. The other 20% is resolution (which is title dependent and how big your TV is and/or how close you sit). Most of the UHD releases so far are from 2K DIs and many of those are among the best looking upgrades.

Really surprising that anyone that's been following UHDs thread like this for a while still look at the upgrade from strictly a resolution standpoint.

Last edited by bruceames; 12-16-16 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 12-16-16, 11:01 AM   #39
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

If you want the touted visual and aural benefits of 4K, it pays to do your research before running out and plunking down $30—save some dough when you can (unless you are enamored by the black 4K cases).

From the review of the UHD a-hem, 4K version of "Suicide Squad" via Blu-ray.com:

Quote:
...I have been watching 4K discs since the format's debut last March, including review discs and others, but Warner's 2160p, HEVC/H.265-encoded UHD of Suicide Squad provided a unique experience, as I stared at the screen trying to make out any improvements over the standard Blu-ray. [/B]Since the film was completed on a digital intermediate at 2K, it isn't surprising that the 4K discs offes no increase in visible resolution, but the HDR encoding (so heavily touted in Warner's ubiquitous promo for UHD) typically supplies a more vivid image through improved contrast and black levels. Not so with Suicide Squad.
And from the Blu-ray review:

Quote:
Warner's 1080p, AVC-encoded Blu-rays (one each for the theatrical and extended cuts) feature accurate black levels necessary to render those environments with depth and fine detail. Against the often monochromatic backgrounds, certain elements routinely "pop" with flashes of intense, saturated color...Densities are excellent, and the image is free of interference, distortion or artifacts. Warner has mastered both discs with an average bitrate of just under 25 Mbps, with capable encodes.
So I ask myself, what's the point of even releasing it on this new format when there is no evident benefit? I continue to be underwhelmed by UHD.

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Originally Posted by BSTNFAN View Post
...I would like to say that for many of "us" the 4K resolution (or lack thereof on many titles) of UHD isn't the most important aspect of it. For many, it comes in behind HDR, WCG and Object Based Sound (Dolby Atmos/DTS:X).
That may be true, but that's not how they are marketing this format. It's the "4K" and to a lesser degree, "HDR." If those elements fail to impress then the format is doomed. Most people are impressed by the visual image. A niche group of home theater enthusiasts will not be enough to bring prolonged success to this format. Ask most people about Dolby Atmos/DTS:X and they'll look at you cross-eyed. If the studios are losing interest in Blu-ray and licensing their titles to small boutique distributors, how the hell does UHD have a prayer of seeing even a fraction of the thousands of Blu-ray titles now available? I'm still waiting for a number of titles available on DVD to make it to Blu-ray. I'm sorry, but this format looks more like a boondoggle with each passing day.

Last edited by AaronSch; 12-16-16 at 11:46 AM.
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Old 12-16-16, 11:18 AM   #40
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

I know someone that has some of the Bourne Identity UHD's and says that they offer no improvement to the BD - it's a "why bother" type of release.

OTOH, Pacific Rim and Lucy - I can't stop hearing good things about.
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Old 12-16-16, 11:34 AM   #41
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Originally Posted by Why So Blu? View Post
I know someone that has some of the Bourne Identity UHD's and says that they offer no improvement to the BD - it's a "why bother" type of release.

OTOH, Pacific Rim and Lucy - I can't stop hearing good things about.
It is so hit and miss that it is hardly worth the effort. It won't take long for this format to lose steam as the public realizes there is no discernible benefit apparent in many of these so-called, 4K releases. That's a real danger for its chances of long term success. The studios should have been far more judicious in what they released. I just can't see how the hell it will ever catch fire. Incremental benefits just won't compel the masses and no perceived benefit at all will be a stake through this format's heart.

My buddy was over at Best Buy this morning doing a price match on "Hell or High Water" and said there are a ton of "Suicide Squad" 4K steelbooks languishing on the shelves. Not a hot title before Christmas...

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Old 12-16-16, 12:11 PM   #42
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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I'm not debating it, but barely one year in, it's starting to show traction. The problem is, most material that exists there is very little in 4K. As 4K continues to increase, so will good releases. Now will it survive long enough to have a good amount of native 4K material to sell? Time will tell. Not condemning it yet, but it's a steep hill to climb. One good thing it has going for UHD is that as of now, UHD discs look better than when streaming the same material. Not to mention the level of data needed to stream.
I guess that would depend on how you define traction. If you mean there are discs available that very few people are buying, then I guess the answer is yes, it is showing traction. Albeit, very little traction. I just dont see it. Going into stores I don't see people picking up these titles the way they pick up dvds or blue rays. I guess it doesn't help that many of them are priced rather crazily.
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Old 12-16-16, 12:13 PM   #43
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

I am tired of removing blu-rays from my throat. I wish I could find the responsible party and put an end to it.

I grab my 4k movies, that I still don't even have a player for yet, for around 20 bucks and they come with a blu ray version that I can play now. I don't have to be concerned about "saving my money" because I am getting fooled as to what I am really getting. There is so much more to 4k discs than just resolution itself. I can see that in the HDR capabilities of my 4k set when playing certain video games.

Do you happen to have any Chewly gum for sale?
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Old 12-16-16, 12:20 PM   #44
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

I have about 30 discs, and of those, about 10 so far are re-buys. I got them solely for upgraded picture and inclusion of Atmos (and in the rare instance, DTS:X). For my dollar value, the upgrades are really worth it so far, mostly because of the sound. I have a full 7.2.4 setup, and the mixes are really different and improved. I plan to continue on double dipping on titles where I know a vast improvement (and maybe more extras) has been made. But as of now, the investment is paying off more in the audio department than with 4K.
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Old 12-16-16, 12:50 PM   #45
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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I guess that would depend on how you define traction. If you mean there are discs available that very few people are buying, then I guess the answer is yes, it is showing traction. Albeit, very little traction. I just dont see it.
The last numbers I saw had UHD BD quadrupling Blu-ray unit sales when the first few months of their lifespans are aligned. Admittedly, Blu-ray was in the middle of a format war, which prevents any comparison from truly being apples-to-apples, but those are hardly dismal numbers. Below are a few quotes from an article last month.

The BDA's Dan Schinasi:

Quote:
In all, more than 80,000 Ultra HD Blu-players from all makers have been sold since the first player was introduced by Samsung last February, Schinasi said.
(This would seem to not include the Xbox One S, which I think is fair, although I bet that muddies the attach rate waters.)
Quote:
As for software sales, the industry has generated more than $25 million in sales revenue and is on the way toward reaching the 1 millionth disc sales number. Ultra HD Blu-ray discs typically sell for between $22.95-$29.95. The numbers eclipse sales of standard Blu-ray Disc sales at a comparable point in the two formats’ rollouts.
Quote:
“The attachment rate of content to players (which at its peak was 8 to 1) is significantly higher for Ultra HD Blu-ray than it was for regular Blu-ray,” Schinasi said. “The sales performance so far has exceeded a lot of the studios’ expectations.”

Sony's Don Eklund:

Quote:
“Sony Pictures is very happy with the Ultra HD Blu-ray performance so far. It’s succeeded their expectations,” said Don Eklund, Sony Corp. new format promotion senior VP. “That doesn’t mean it’s been a windfall by any stretch, but it’s doing better than was forecast.”
Don't misconstrue that as me saying that Ultra HD Blu-ray is some sort of astonishing, runaway success, but by all accounts I can find, UHD BD is performing better than expected (although I'm sure those expectations were very modest).

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Going into stores I don't see people picking up these titles the way they pick up dvds or blue rays.
Well, there are only around 100 UHD BD titles on the market compared to however many tens of thousands on BD. It's a new format, so the install base is very small compared to the ten year old Blu-ray. I wouldn't expect them to fly off the shelves in that same way.

I've read that UHD BD sales are significantly higher than 3D BD these days, not that that's not all that high a bar to clear, unfortunately.

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I guess it doesn't help that many of them are priced rather crazily.
New titles usually come at a $5 premium, and that seems reasonable to me.

Catalog titles are a tough pill to swallow, though. Looking at Amazon, Mad Max: Fury Road is $8.99 on BD but $29.99 on UHD BD. Oblivion is $8.06 on BD and $22.50 on UHD BD. Pacific Rim is $9.99 for the 3D BD set but $31.99 on UHD BD. That'll hopefully change over time, just as it has with DVD vs. Blu-ray, but I don't see a lot of BD->UHD BD upgrades in my future.
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Old 12-16-16, 01:48 PM   #46
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

Adam created this thread and falsely labeled me as its OP. What a pathetic move to attribute a new thread to me without my permission or say in the titles name. This website is near death. There are few who post at DVDTalk any longer so I too will say good day. I have far better things to do. Adam you are a total schmuck.

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Old 12-16-16, 02:13 PM   #47
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

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Adam created this thread and falsely labeled me as its OP. What a pathetic move to attribute a new thread to me without my permission or say in the titles name.
Incorrect. I moved largely off-topic posts out of one thread and into another. Because posts are sorted chronologically, I don't have a way to 'inject' another post at the top or to specify a different OP. I could've edited your original post with an explanation, and in hindsight, maybe I should've done that. (I did put an explanation in the source thread, though.) I edited an explanation into the first post and updated the subject to match.
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Old 12-16-16, 02:16 PM   #48
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

The mods keep moving my posts!
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Old 12-16-16, 02:28 PM   #49
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re: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray really worth the upgrade? (split from the DVD/BD sales thread)

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The mods keep moving my posts!
Idiot moderators
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Old 12-16-16, 02:59 PM   #50
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Re: Blu-ray and DVD sales - um, okay, I guess the % doesn't keep going up

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Edit! Aaronsch took great issue with discussion being moved to its own thread, so maybe that whole ordeal is best forgotten? Some off-topic discussion is totally fine, but if it seems like its own extended conversation, it's better off in its own thread.
No Adam, once again you got it wrong. I had no issue with a new thread being spun off. What I took issue with was your creation of the thread with a snarky title and then conveniently made me the first post which gives the appearance that I created it with that title. And yes, I rightfully took issue. It was a spineless thing to do but at least you edited yourself. Good day.
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