"Blu-ray is dead" proclaims Robin Harrs.

[darkside]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The point is not to prove the existence of a number. The point of the argument is to prove that what is stated as a fact it backed by factual data. BD sales this year have consistently been over 4% and even though these numbers refer to the top sellers in both categories, DVD and BR, they are indeed representative. The only argument one could bring up to claim that they are not is the lack of hard numbers...which automatically dismisses the blogger's claim to begin with.

Pro-B

Got it. So basically you are always right and when you are wrong refer back to rule one. I have a real problem with you spinning stuff to fit your stance, but clobbering anyone that tries to work things out the same way if it doesn't. I disagree with you I better post 10 sources backing it up. You disagree with me you can rationalize it anyway you want.

The only fact is none of us know. It could be 4%, it could be higher or lower. I agree it looks like sales are on the upswing looking at the Nielsen's, but we really aren't sure how accurate those are. We had numbers all over the place on Iron Man.

I definitely agree with the fact that Blu-ray couldn't be in worse shape than Yahoo as posted later in the thread so maybe that is something to be positive about. I want BD to succeed so hopefully it finishes its third Christmas moving up. The Hulk number is encouraging, but are catalog things like Young Frankenstein or Casino fairing better? That is where I really want to see BD expand so I'm curious if the older films are still selling in the hundreds instead of thousands. I would have much rather bought the Complete Abbott and Costello Collection on BD, but there doesn't seem to be a place on the format for older niche films.

[Drexl]

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema

The timing is strange. BD has its best month for sales (Oct. '08) and a flood of doom and gloom articles start popping up.

Again, why is their even a discussion about the demise of a format whose sales are increasing and player pricing is dropping. We're barely through the important Q4.

I imagine they're gearing up for their end-of-year proclamations. In their estimation, since it hasn't taken a big chunk out of DVD yet, they see it as a failure.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by wd65733

Bluray achieves the greatest software sales yet in the month of October.

EAT IT, bluray doubters!!

Yes, thank Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk for that.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by darkside

Got it. So basically you are always right and when you are wrong refer back to rule one. I have a real problem with you spinning stuff to fit your stance, but clobbering anyone that tries to work things out the same way if it doesn't. I disagree with you I better post 10 sources backing it up. You disagree with me you can rationalize it anyway you want.

The only fact is none of us know. It could be 4%, it could be higher or lower. I agree it looks like sales are on the upswing looking at the Nielsen's, but we really aren't sure how accurate those are. We had numbers all over the place on Iron Man.

I definitely agree with the fact that Blu-ray couldn't be in worse shape than Yahoo as posted later in the thread so maybe that is something to be positive about. I want BD to succeed so hopefully it finishes its third Christmas moving up. The Hulk number is encouraging, but are catalog things like Young Frankenstein or Casino fairing better? That is where I really want to see BD expand so I'm curious if the older films are still selling in the hundreds instead of thousands. I would have much rather bought the Complete Abbott and Costello Collection on BD, but there doesn't seem to be a place on the format for older niche films.

Where is the spinning? The only official share percentages that have been produced by official parties have consistently shown Blu-ray being over 4%. Top sellers or not. This is a fact.

During the last three weeks/entering fourth Blu-ray has retained a ratio of over 10% market share against DVD. This is a fact.

Q4 has not ended yet so cumulative data revealing a market share of 4% or below has not been produced. This is a fact.

Both Iron Man and Hulk have beaten the expectations for entry sales on BD. BD has retracted larger than 4% sales from SDVD. This is a fact.

No official party has released market share data of total sales for both formats. Fact.

Now, Darkside, you tell me: which of the facts from the ones posted above you find as spinning? Which one gives you the comfort to believe a blogger claiming that current market share for BD is 4%? Is there a foundation for such a reality and if there is I would like to be pointed to the source.

With other words, before I dismiss the facts we have and agree with a statement which isn't quoting a source I would like to know where the faulty link is. This is how it works: you base your estimates on the data you have, not on feelings.

On the other hand, official parties that monitor the market and supply the only relevant percentages addressing shares have consistently been over 4% for BD and growing.

You point me where the spinning is and let's eliminate it together. Agreed?

Pro-B

[darkside]

Originally Posted by DthRdrX

The writer mentions something that has already been mentioned here. All the major problems were being pointed at the hardware.

This is the one place BD has to get it together. We can debate sales one way or the other, but there are real issues with hardware and software compatibility. The current issues with Fox discs is crazy. I rented For Your Eyes Only and couldn't play it on 2 of my 3 players. I guess I should be thankful I have 3 BD players. I wonder if most consumers will have that option.

Fox discs in general have seemed picky lately and I know my Sharp player won't play many of them and I haven't seen any firmware update to address it. Guess Sharp figures that $500 player doesn't have to play every disc.

Oh and Pro B you are on my ignore list now so save your talking down for other posters.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by darkside

Oh and Pro B you are on my ignore list now so save your talking down for other posters.

Pro-B

[musick]

given the % of retail floor space dedicated to BD vs that of dvd plus the limited availabilty of BD catalog titles vs that of dvd plus the comfort/familiarity factor of dvd I would say it is doing just fine in comparison with sales of dvd

[jiggawhat]

I think the main problem for BD now is the economy. Nothing else comes close. Not player prices, not disc issues, nothing.

What's surprising, however, that it's actually doing quite well how bad the economy is. Most of the pundits think it's the other issues related to the format when it's the outside factors that are hurting it.

[DVD Polizei]

Yeah, I mentioned this earlier about sales doing rather well, and this increase could be due to consumers staying at home more--because of unemployment--and wanting to purchase movies to escape reality. Can't blame them, really. I'd do it.

[namja]

About this time last year, pretty much everyone blamed the format wars for the slow adoption of HD movie sales (whether it was Blu-ray or HD DVD). Now that there's nothing to blame it on, people are starting to say that this (the current poor sales level) was expected. Hmmmm.

I can't watch anything on SD anymore. I won't do upconvert either. It's either Blu-ray or an HD feed from Directv, or I simply won't watch it. Hopefully HDTV sales this Christmas will also make a significant boost to BD player sales. Otherwise, it's going to be a really tough road ahead.

[DVD Polizei]

Well, last year at this time, I was a proponent of the format war, because in my opinion, it gave more publicity to HD. I still believe if the format war went on longer, we'd have many more adopters, and second, if dual-format machines became expected, we could have seen a gradual direction of consumers preferring Blu-ray or HD DVD naturally. This would have been the more prudent direction to obtaining a firm single HD format. Where the consumer would decide.

But instead, some particular movie studios decided to want some quick solutions to profits, and put out the propaganda machine into overdrive, saying the consumer "had spoken".

[JimRochester]

It's all about titles. When the big titles come out they sell huge regardless of the firmware problems. I still think that HD DVD hung too much around the neck of Bourne and Transporters. Had they started laying out release dates for movies like Indiana Jones and Beverly Hills cop, I think they would have had more credibility vs. just dropping their pants on the hardware.

[Damed]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Yes, thank Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk for that.

Don't forget Indiana Jones.

FTR, I still don't own Iron Man OR TIH, as I refuse to pay $25+ for a single movie.

[tonymontana313]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Yes, thank Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk for that.

Well you also had big releases around this time last year as well. Having the biggest sales month ever shows growth in IMO.

[Mikael79]

I thought that the article had a lot of very valid points.

It's easy for us to think that firmware upgrades are easy as pie, but then I think about the chances that someone like my 53 year-old father would be able to do it - and it's about 5%.

Disc prices are still way too high. Customers shouldn't have to browse online and in-store ads for decent prices - they should be readily available.

Before Blu-ray and HD-DVD launched, I remember reading about how much content they'd be able to fit on one BD-ROM, but look at an example like Pushing Daisies - both formats have 3 discs, but the Blu-ray version is usually about 40% more expensive. I understand why it's better to give the Blu-ray transfers more room to breathe in regards to compression, but do most customers care/know that?

I think the article should be seen as a positive - we've done our part by investing in the technology early, and now it's up to manufacturers to follow-up to make sure the format is healthy and thrives.

[Jim]

Originally Posted by Mikael79

It's easy for us to think that firmware upgrades are easy as pie, but then I think about the chances that someone like my 53 year-old father would be able to do it - and it's about 5%.

I'm not 53, but close enough - we're not that lame! It would be more of an issue for my parent's generation, although I could get my dad or my father-in-law through it.

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by musick

given the % of retail floor space dedicated to BD vs that of dvd plus the limited availabilty of BD catalog titles vs that of dvd plus the comfort/familiarity factor of dvd I would say it is doing just fine in comparison with sales of dvd

Please remewmber that the BDA is likely paying stores for those huge sections, according to reports (and common practice). The will come a point of critical mass where the store's customers need the BD section in place more than the BDA does, and if that point does not come then sections will be reduced. Simple marketing.

[BuckNaked2k]

I had to talk my Dad through a fw upgrade for his PS3 over the phone.....man, THAT was not easy!

[candyrocket786]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Well, last year at this time, I was a proponent of the format war, because in my opinion, it gave more publicity to HD. I still believe if the format war went on longer, we'd have many more adopters, and second, if dual-format machines became expected, we could have seen a gradual direction of consumers preferring Blu-ray or HD DVD naturally. This would have been the more prudent direction to obtaining a firm single HD format. Where the consumer would decide.

But instead, some particular movie studios decided to want some quick solutions to profits, and put out the propaganda machine into overdrive, saying the consumer "had spoken".

[cinemaman]

on a somewhat related note, I think part of the problem is the ridiculously low prices for DVDs that we have been spoiled with. I was at Big Lots the others and debating whether a SE of a major film was worth $3. I had to stop myself to realize what I was thinking. We are at the stage of pricing where $3 for a SE (ANY SE) may be too much? And if I am thinking this about $3 DVDs, how will I react to $25 BRD?

Now, while I have obviously benefited from these cheap prices, it really is incredible. Regardless of why (mass production, overflowing inventory, DVD as a commodity, etc.) it is rare where I spend more than $5 for a movie. Even the 4/$20 PVD at BBV seems high for those films now.

Not sure how many other people feel the same way I do, but this can't be good for BRD. My point is that - at least from my perspective - BRD is not just " a little more" expensive than DVD. If my base is $3-$5/movie, then BRD is easily - what - 4 to 8 times more expensive? That places an unreasonable high expectation/standard on BRD. Honestly, can anyone justify that a BRD is 8 TIMES better than SD? That's a hard one to explain to my wife..

Just thought I would share that.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

Please remewmber that the BDA is likely paying stores for those huge sections, according to reports (and common practice). The will come a point of critical mass where the store's customers need the BD section in place more than the BDA does, and if that point does not come then sections will be reduced. Simple marketing.

Sadly, I don't think most people understand this. Target is not going to devote an entire row (150 titles) + a TV showcasing Blu-ray just for their benefit. Its because they are getting paid to do it. Just like Best Buy was, and just like Circuit City (R.I.P). I'm curious to see after the holidays if the section remains the same or gets reduced back down.

[foofighters7]

Look, fact of the matter is this.

MOST consumers will go with the slightly worse picture if its not THAT bad and save them 6-10 bucks +. Not to mention the cost of having to actually buy another video player.

I thought the idea of HD and BD was dumb to begin with anyways.. Dont act like its all a completly new thing, and demand higher prices... Start selling the BD players as cheap as the dvd players, charge the same for the BD as for DVD and make sure people understand the differences..they might not make great amounts of money right off, but as people realize the advantages they will start switching..

RIGHT NOW,, HELL NO!! The average buyer will not leap onto the BD bandwagon because of cost vs. reward.

FOR ME- Its not worth it to me to switch to BD. I'm fairly happy with the look of most DVDs. Yeah some are crap and some are fine...

I was very early on the DVD bandwagon because I seen all the advantages and plus the price vs. reward was WELL worth it, because of all the extras that can go on dvds as well as a better picture...

not so with BD. Its just not worth it right now.

[Trevor]

Originally Posted by cinemaman

on a somewhat related note, I think part of the problem is the ridiculously low prices for DVDs that we have been spoiled with. I was at Big Lots the others and debating whether a SE of a major film was worth $3. I had to stop myself to realize what I was thinking. We are at the stage of pricing where $3 for a SE (ANY SE) may be too much? And if I am thinking this about $3 DVDs, how will I react to $25 BRD?

Now, while I have obviously benefited from these cheap prices, it really is incredible. Regardless of why (mass production, overflowing inventory, DVD as a commodity, etc.) it is rare where I spend more than $5 for a movie. Even the 4/$20 PVD at BBV seems high for those films now.

Not sure how many other people feel the same way I do, but this can't be good for BRD. My point is that - at least from my perspective - BRD is not just " a little more" expensive than DVD. If my base is $3-$5/movie, then BRD is easily - what - 4 to 8 times more expensive? That places an unreasonable high expectation/standard on BRD. Honestly, can anyone justify that a BRD is 8 TIMES better than SD? That's a hard one to explain to my wife..

Just thought I would share that.

Some good points, but you are using some big time faulty logic.

You are comparing the sale/hunt prices for SD DVDs to the list prices of BRs.

I'll give you that it is easier to find bargain SDs, but one can easily average $10 per BR thru the same hunting/saavy shopping that you are doing to find $3 SDs.

So the ratio is not 8 times greater, but about 3.

Now that ratio is for us bargain shoppers willing to be patient, use CH, etc

Joe Public sees tons of $5 SDs, new releases $15-20, but $20-30 BRs.

Edit to add: strike that last line, it needs clarification, see my next post.

[JimRochester]

Originally Posted by Jim

I'm not 53, but close enough - we're not that lame! It would be more of an issue for my parent's generation, although I could get my dad or my father-in-law through it.

At 50 years old, yes I think I can handle it. But as I said, my parents generation have trouble with these things. My parents have an HDTV, my in-laws still have an old tube TV. My parents always have the wrong aspect ratio on the TV and don't use the HD channels even though they pay for HD cable. "Too much trouble", and "why do they constantly need to be changed?". They like to turn it on and have it work.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Sadly, I don't think most people understand this. Target is not going to devote an entire row (150 titles) + a TV showcasing Blu-ray just for their benefit. Its because they are getting paid to do it. Just like Best Buy was, and just like Circuit City (R.I.P). I'm curious to see after the holidays if the section remains the same or gets reduced back down.

I don't expect to see a decrease. There will be even more titles released next year. They have to go somewhere. It's not just the movie expansion, but the players as well. Target is now carrying 4 players (counting the PS3) and Walmart has about 4-5 as well.