"Blu-ray is dead" proclaims Robin Harrs.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by chanster

You can talk about percentage increases all you want, but the overall numbers - about 4% of market share - prove that most people just don't care at this point.

What is this 4% market share you speak of? (Yahoo blogs)

Pro-B

[Pizza]

Originally Posted by aynrandgirl

3) They didn't use standard CD cases. SACD cases are horrible. I have much the same complaint with Blu-ray cases.

Really? I love the SACD cases. I didn't like DVD-A cases as much because they were larger in size, but I feel the SACD ones were of higher quality than CD cases and made it feel you were getting something more and/or special.

[Pizza]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

So, my advice is to grab some Blu-ray movies from Amazon's B2G1 sale, and get a Blu-ray player during this holiday when we will see some deals. Grab some older titles, and read the reviews here on DVD Talk and HD Digest.

I am sincerely on the tip of the fence and have been keeping an eye open but when I see the prices on discs in the stores I can't help but be turned off. I almost bit on the current Amazon deal of 4 discs and $100 off with a PS3 but didn't like or need a single title offered. It also troubles me a bit that the apparent best player out there is a video game machine. But, I am keeping an open mind on it (I would love to have "Seventh Voyage of Sinbad" and "Young Frankenstein" in HD) and would probably strike if a strong deal appears like it did with HD DVD.

[PopcornTreeCt]

Originally Posted by Pizza

I am sincerely on the tip of the fence and have been keeping an eye open but when I see the prices on discs in the stores I can't help but be turned off. I almost bit on the current Amazon deal of 4 discs and $100 off with a PS3 but didn't like or need a single title offered. It also troubles me a bit that the apparent best player out there is a video game machine. But, I am keeping an open mind on it (I would love to have "Seventh Voyage of Sinbad" and "Young Frankenstein" in HD) and would probably strike if a strong deal appears like it did with HD DVD.

One of the things that sucks about Blu-ray compared to DVD, is that you can get good deals on DVDs at your local Target, Wal-Mart or Best Buy. However, this is pretty much non-existant for Blu-ray. I've never bought a Blu-ray at a B&M store.

[chanster]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

What is this 4% market share you speak of? (Yahoo blogs)

Pro-B

I guess from the article I read that was the subject of this post.

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=365

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by Pizza

I am sincerely on the tip of the fence and have been keeping an eye open but when I see the prices on discs in the stores I can't help but be turned off. I almost bit on the current Amazon deal of 4 discs and $100 off with a PS3 but didn't like or need a single title offered. It also troubles me a bit that the apparent best player out there is a video game machine. But, I am keeping an open mind on it (I would love to have "Seventh Voyage of Sinbad" and "Young Frankenstein" in HD) and would probably strike if a strong deal appears like it did with HD DVD.

If you're looking for the best machine, I'd get the Panasonic BD55K. Not cheap ($400), but much less than the HD-XA2 I bought. I agree, B&M stores need to drop their prices. They aren't helping Blu-ray at all by keeping prices high.

And the Amazon promo was pathetic. Few titles offered, and the worst players offered as well. Definitely avoid that "deal".

[droidguy1119]

Originally Posted by wd65733

Are you crazy??? $15?!?!?

Even standard DVD new releases are still around $15 and up.

Yet studios like Criterion and Lionsgate have offerings (the former all releases, the latter "Mad Men") where the DVD and the BD hit the market at the same price point. Other films like Artie Lange's Beer League and other titles (mainly from Echo Bridge) are $8.99 or even less. Warner just introduced a slew of catalogs (Eraser, Outbreak) at $14.99 and comparatively marked down some older catalogs (Bullitt, Enter the Dragon) to the same price. Studios can certainly afford to lower their prices to be DVD-comparable. They just don't want to. Fox, as mentioned often, is the worst at this, offering feature-free catalog titles by themselves (Man on Fire) and through MGM (Amityville, Carrie) for a ridiculous $34.99 or $39.99.

As much as Blu-Ray is a new format and we can't expect $5.00 Wal-Mart Blu bins, there is definitely an element of greed and price-jacking involved here. Just because we're enthusiasts doesn't make us saps!

[musick]

Originally Posted by PopcornTreeCt

One of the things that sucks about Blu-ray compared to DVD, is that you can get good deals on DVDs at your local Target, Wal-Mart or Best Buy. However, this is pretty much non-existant for Blu-ray. I've never bought a Blu-ray at a B&M store.

interesting since it was very simple to aquire a $10 off BD coupon at BB for the last couple weeks

picking up Kubrick catalog at $4.99 a pop

I don't disagree that current pricing is too high but deals are there to be had (even at b&m) if you look hard enough

[musick]

Originally Posted by Pizza

It also troubles me a bit that the apparent best player out there is a video game machine.

why let it trouble you
if you don't like the gaming aspects don't use them
I never used my dvd player as a cd player

[applesandrice]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Then it is perhaps a good idea that you look up one, see when was the last time major blockbusters came in "full screen", and how they sold. In my opinion, at this point it is not even worth arguing whether or not "full-screen" represents a large number of the market.



Once again, don't ask me to realize, show me numbers, and make be agree with your point. Aside from Walmart where some old catalog titles are still occasionally being sold as "full screen" the overwhelming majority of big releases is in OAR. As far as Best Buy goes "full screen" releases are practically gone (how many "full screen" releases do you see on release day regularly?). As far as catalog titles go they are, I would argue, 99% gone.




See above.



I disagree with you because the DVD market shows otherwise and that is all that matters. OAR is the standard and arguing otherwise is just silly.



OAR DVDs became the norm long before wodescreen TVs were as common as you believe. And the studios helped quite a bit by not catering to the small number of "full screen" supporters long time ago.l To even claim that nowadays there is a sizable group of customers who still influence the studios to consider "full screen" support is, again, silly. OAR is the norm, not the other way around.



These folks are absolutely, undoubtedly, unimportant at the moment. They won't be important as to where HD moves in the future as well. Really, I am simply lost with your concern about "full screen".




You must be reading a different text as I most certainly disagree with your stance on practically everything. The opinion I agree with so far is the one shared by Jon2. I believe that as the market expands and Blu-ray improves its performance DVD numbers will continue to decline to a point where content will eventually be restricted.



Time will tell!

Pro-B

Pro-B, these are just a few up-coming titles which will have their very own "full screen" standard definition releases. These are not a few catalogue titles left over in a bin at Wal Mart -- these are major releases.

The simple point is that with a large enough consumer base still demanding "full screen" DVDs, Blu-ray has a lot to overcome.

I'm not going to argue this with you any further. If you want sales numbers, I'm sure you know where to find them.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by applesandrice

Pro-B, these are just a few up-coming titles which will have their very own "full screen" standard definition releases. These are not a few catalogue titles left over in a bin at Wal Mart -- these are major releases.

Here's a very simple suggestion for you: Take a look at VideoEta for the entire month of October. Find out how many releases came out in Widescreen and how many in Full Screen. Let us know if OAR releases were less than 95%.

Originally Posted by applesandrice

The simple point is that with a large enough consumer base still demanding "full screen" DVDs, Blu-ray has a lot to overcome.

Sorry, it is not a simple point. If it was we would not argue it. Fact of the matter is: the "full-screen" market is so unimportant and irrelevant to Blu-ray's future that it is not even worth arguing it any further (another suggestion: take a look at the latest article posted in Variety where Mr. Kornblau and other CEOs discuss what market demographic Blu-ray needs to tackle next.)

Originally Posted by applesandrice

I'm not going to argue this with you any further. If you want sales numbers, I'm sure you know where to find them.

You are certainly free to walk away. Yet, you brought up "full-screen" releases into this discussion so if you cannot supply your claims with the proper piece of information confirming your analysis then I think that it is indeed pointless to argue any further.

Pro-B

[darkside]

What I would like to see is a chart of BD disc sales vs Full Screen DVD disc sales on all the new releases that still have Full Screen versions. I have a feeling Full Screen DVD would win. Of course getting real BD sales numbers to compare to anything is tough.

I will agree though that the Full Screen market isn't coming to BD anyway and isn't the problem. They will probably still be using their SD TVs for years to come. It is getting all the HDTV owners to buy BD that is the problem. A large number of my friends and family have 1 or more HDTVs. At least 50 people I can think of off hand. Not a single one of them has a Blu-ray player or from what I can tell intends to get one. Some finally have HD cable and Xbox360s and are finally experiencing real HD content, but BD doesn't seem to be on their radar.

How does Hollywood reach these people? Is it just price cutting? I honestly don't get it.

[DVD Polizei]

Get Smart, indeed.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by darkside

What I would like to see is a chart of BD disc sales vs Full Screen DVD disc sales on all the new releases that still have Full Screen versions. I have a feeling Full Screen DVD would win. Of course getting real BD sales numbers to compare to anything is tough.

Leave the feelings for a different discussion. Let's deal with facts:
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/11/01...nding-october/

Who'd a thought that The Incredible Hulk would sell so well? We sure didn't, as we predicted sales to be down more than 1.26 percent, on this week's Nielsen VideoScan chart courtesy of Home Media Magazine. Thanks to the Hulk, Blu-ray managed to net $17.71 million this week, which makes October the biggest month in history. In fact, consumers spent $76.86 million in October alone, which is more than all of August and September combined -- it will be very interesting to see if Blu-ray can keep this up through the last two months of the year though. For whatever reason the green monster was a hotter seller on Blu-ray than DVD, as it outsold Indiana by about 4:1, which is about twice as much as the DVD version managed against the same competition. This showed up on the Blu-ray title share chart, as the Hulk stole over 18 percent away from its DVD version, which to our memory is the best of any day-and-date title ever. The fun is over next week though, as there are only so many comic book movies around, and the next one isn't due for about a month. But when the latest Batman does hit the shelves, watch out, as it should easily outsell every Blu-ray title to date including the mighty Iron Man.

With the trend described above do you really believe that a "full-screen" market can be in any way possible comparable to it? Once again, it is absolutely ridiculous to even suggest so let alone argue about it!

Originally Posted by darkside

I will agree though that the Full Screen market isn't coming to BD anyway and isn't the problem. They will probably still be using their SD TVs for years to come. It is getting all the HDTV owners to buy BD that is the problem.

No one is even discussing such a "full-screen" factor! Quite the opposite, the CEOs of the major studios are looking at the affluent families as their next target, not the "full-screen" consumer, or whatever description you wish to use, which apparently is thriving at Wallmart and the likes:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...ryId=2520&cs=1

When Toshiba finally gave up on the HD DVD format earlier this year, many in Hollywood breathed a sigh of relief. With a distracting format war out of the way, they figured, there would be nothing to stop consumers from making the switch to high definition DVDs.

But while Blu-ray won its battle with HD DVD, it's still unclear whether it will win the war for consumers' hearts. Sales are up substantially, particularly for male-oriented f/x heavy titles like "Iron Man," but from a very small base. Prices for players are falling rapidly, below $250 at many retailers currently and on their way to under $200 by Thanksgiving weekend. But in the face of a slumping economy, are consumers ready to spend even a couple of hundred dollars for an upgraded viewing experience, not to mention $10 more per disc?

"I am cautiously optimistic," says Universal home entertainment topper and Blu-ray booster Craig Kornblau. "But I would be wildly optimistic if the environment was what it was six months ago."

At the Consumer Electronic Show in January, soon after Warner Bros. essentially killed HD DVD by committing to Blu-ray, format backers predicted $1 billion in software sales for 2008. As of the end of September, however, sales had reached around $300 million, according to Variety sister pub Video Business. Q4 is expected to be huge, but even if the 200%-plus growth Blu-ray has seen so far this year grows, $1 billion is almost certainly out of reach. (Overseas, Blu-ray perf is about even with the U.S. in Japan, while the European market is about one year behind.)

Beyond the economy, there are several potential factors noted by insiders:

n Following the end of the hi-def format war, it took several months for manufacturers to start expanding player production to match the new HD DVD-free environment.

n While many retailers discount DVDs as much as $5 off of the wholesale price to drive customer traffic, they're not yet doing the same for Blu-ray. Result is that standard DVDs are often as cheap as $13 their first week, but Blu-ray discs never drop less than $25 and are often $30 or higher, resulting in a huge price differential that consumers have a hard time justifying. "It's a bigger gap than it should be given the wholesale price," notes one homevid exec.

n Sony's PlayStation 3 remains mired in third place behind the Nintendo Wii and Microsoft's Xbox 360 and hasn't proven to be as big a booster of Blu-ray movie sales as some had predicted. Hopes that the videogame console, which costs $100 to $200 more than its competitors, would get a price cut for the holidays were recently dashed.

n Hype around digital distribution may be putting off some consumers from making the switch to Blu-ray. Even though revenue from Internet downloads remains miniscule, it has gotten a disproportionate amount of attention in the media and may be convincing some consumers that disc-based movies won't be around wrong, making Blu-ray a bad investment.

The implications for not hitting $1 billion in sales this year are more than bad PR. Industry sell-through spending is down 3.5% as of September, and the biz hopes to avoid a second consecutive year of declining homevid spending. Studios are counting on Blu-ray growth to offset declines in standard-def DVDs. But, just as with the $1 billion goal, many insiders say flat revenue is the best-case scenario and another year of single digit declines is more likely.

"At the end of the day, people will profess to be pleased given the state of the economy even though we didn't get to the billion-dollar goal," says one experienced homevideo exec. "Where exactly we end up is going to depend a lot on 'The Dark Knight,' quite honestly."

Warner Bros.' superhero sequel, the year's top grossing film with nearly $1 billion worldwide, is seen by many as the bellwether for Blu-ray. Already, superhero pics are proving to be a favorite for format consumers. "Iron Man" broke records in its opening week by selling over 500,000 Blu-ray copies, about 7% of its total. Blu-ray has repped more than 10% of disc sales for "Speed Racer" and "Journey to the Center of the Earth" and more than 14% for "The Incredible Hulk."

Execs at several studios agree that "Dark Knight" is sure to dominate the Blu-ray charts for at least a month after its Dec. 9 release and break sales records.

The question is not only "By how much?," but whether it will be a major driver for consumers to buy hardware as well. If so, the effects will be felt throughout the biz as new Blu-ray households buy other movies.

"The retail response has been extremely positive and we feel that given its street date in conjunction with what we expect to be aggressive hardware promotions and marketing, if there's a consumer on the fence about whether to buy Blu-ray, 'Dark Knight' could be a title that tips the scales," says Dorinda Marticorena, senior veep of worldwide marketing and hi-def for Warner Home Entertainment.

Thus far, Blu-ray hasn't had nearly as much success beyond the type of movies that appeal to men and feature digital effects that really pop in hi-def.

Comedies and family pics typically sell 5% to 7% of their discs in the format. Disney's re-release of "Sleeping Beauty," which was specifically done to boost Blu-ray, is believed to be selling only modestly so far.

Even CGI-animated pics, which benefit the most from high definition, aren't yet exploding. In a recent interview, DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg said Blu-ray sales "will likely be small" for upcoming release "Kung Fu Panda," though he added that his company will still give it significant support.

Other homevideo execs say that Disney's "Wall-E," which appealed more to non-family auds, could perform better. But overall, the consensus is that affluent families are the next market Blu-ray has to capture now that it is largely done with techies and cinephiles.

Studios are hoping to expand to that and other market segments with a marketing campaign being spearheaded by the "True Blu" group, which is part of the DVD-supporting Digital Entertainment Group. It will soon be launching its multimillion-dollar campaign with the support of most studios pushing the idea that Blu-ray's time has arrived.

Just how wide an audience does that campaign have to reach to be a success? Not as many as Blu-ray critics might claim. Homevideo execs say that for the foreseeable future, especially in the face of an economic slump, they don't need to convince the entire country to go Blu. Just the heavy DVD-consuming demographics, like young males, movie fans and families.

"If you look at the way our business works, 10% of the consumers represent over half the buys," notes Kornblau. "If we get just 5% or 6% penetration and they're all heavy buyers, that could mean 20%-25% of our business become Blu-ray."

So, think very carefully about what is written above. The plan is to penetrate 5% to 6% of the active consumers who drive the numbers for DVD. Not to capture 30-40% of the total market to compete with DVD. (Now you could begin speculating where niche ends and mass begins...). When the former happens, and with the studios in control of content it is more than feasible, the latter will follow. And in case it isn't clear whatever that minuscule "full-screen" percentage of customers is that some are apparently concerned with it, the percentage, does not belong to the former, it belongs to the very bottom of the market the CEOs are trying to revive.

It is a pretty simple scheme really, and it worked perfectly with VHS-SDVD. And the only factor working against it is the economy! For now.

Pro-B

[MBoyd]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Get Smart, indeed.

Ah . . . exactly how I watched it on my flight to Vancouver . . . except also MOS.

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Perhaps it is a shame to you. I believe that it is simply a technical issue which as the market expands and the technology matures will be taken care of adequately. SDVD also underwent similar issues and I personally believe, as I have stated before, that the progression route BD follows is very similar, if not identical, to that of SDVD from approximately 10 years ago.

Give me a break. BD is 3 years old. Discs should not come out that don't play in every player, period. I can't fathom how any can even think this is spinnable in a positive way. I never, EVER had to update firmware on a DVD player. EVER. BD needs to stabilize a standard platform and stop fucking with it.

I agree that price and perceived incremental quality are obstacles for BD, but ease of use is also a huge problem.

[Qui Gon Jim]

I heart percentages. SPINAROONIE!

[chanster]

The only percentage that is important is the one I quoted from Robin Harris and Pro-B somehow forgot to quote and find a way to say isn't true.

Blu Ray has "4% share of US movie disc sales." Period. Not enough, not 20% - 25% of market share, and I'm guessing that the power buyers they hope to entice have already gone over to Blu Ray and are not buying as much as they hope.

[Coral]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

I never, EVER had to update firmware on a DVD player. EVER. BD needs to stabilize a standard platform and stop fucking with it.

Niether have I or any of the 100+ people I know with DVD players.
My 10 year old player has played every single disc I threw at it without problems - and it gets used a lot. A few players have problems with DVD-R/DVD+R media - but never any retail movies.

BD definitely has a big issue with compatability - there's no way to spin that. Fortunately the average consumer won't notice this frustration because they're staying away from the format anyways.

[BuckNaked2k]

FWIW, I updated the firmware on my Denon DVD-3910 a few times, but that was mostly to add functionality for stuff like SACD, etc.

[GizmoDVD]

Since we have a BD is dead thread

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...fortune/4.html

9 Biggest Flops of the Year

#4 - Blu-ray

Unlike the Beta vs. VHS video format battle two decades ago, Sony won this war over the next generation of DVDs. But the victory over Toshiba's HD-DVD standard didn't help move Sony's pricey DVD players off store shelves. "The format war was a good excuse [for consumers] to put off [their next DVD] purchase," said Majestic Research analyst Richard Klugman. "Now people are asking: 'Is it worth it?'"

They thought it was a bigger flop the Vista!

[tonymontana313]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Since we have a BD is dead thread

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...fortune/4.html

9 Biggest Flops of the Year

#4 - Blu-ray


They thought it was a bigger flop the Vista!

Looks like another opinion piece.

You know, I try to stay out of the the arguing and such but I have to ask, why do we continue giving opinion pieces as the OP article continued attention? If Blu-ray was dead or a flop, why do we continue to have great releases and even better releases in 09?

Digital Downloads are in a worse position than Blu-ray, yet I don't see as many doom and gloom prophecies about it.

[Breakfast with Girls]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Since we have a BD is dead thread

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...fortune/4.html

9 Biggest Flops of the Year

#4 - Blu-ray


They thought it was a bigger flop the Vista!

You're reading it backwards. They think Vista was a bigger flop than Sony's Blu-ray player.

[tonymontana313]

Incredible Hulk on BD sold 19% of all Incredible Hulk discs sold and Blu-ray had 12% of all sales last week.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/11/01...nding-october/

[Moopher]

I'm really shocked about the Hulk, then again I did blind buy it because I had seen a good commercial and read a great review! I liked it way more than Iron Man.