"Blu-ray is dead" proclaims Robin Harrs.

[musick]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

I see Blu-ray going the way of DVD Audio and SACD.

yep, high def

[chris_sc77]

Originally Posted by stingermck

Has anyone noticed recent commercials for new releases mentions and shows Blu-ray first, then DVD? Yup, used to be the other way around. That damn Blu-ray is just dying away.

That's because DVD sells itself. The studios have been promoting Blu-ray for years. Thats why there is an ad for it on every DVD when you start one up.

[Jamers]

Well I plan to keep buying at least 4-6 Blu-Rays per month. Maybe if I keep throwing money at them it will stay around a while.

[darkside]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

I see Blu-ray going the way of DVD Audio and SACD.

I love the HD video format, but I have major doubts of it catching on. This is Christmas number 3 for Blu-ray and I still can't sell a single person I know on the format. By DVD's third Christmas I knew many people getting into the format and it was a big buzz among my friends as they converted from VHS.

Not the case with Blu-ray. I have shown it to person after person and they all think it looks and sounds amazing, but are perfectly happy with DVD. This is anecdotal of course, but the sales figures haven't seemed to jump much since the death of HD DVD. Hell, I support Blu-ray and 90% of my purchases this year were on DVD. DVD just has more of the obscure titles I want and stuff like TV shows can be had at 50% less. Blu-ray is just not worth paying double for on TV shows.

I think the laserdisc analogy may end up being very close to the truth. The economy tanking is also going to hurt it this holiday season and honestly if it doesn't catch on this year do we really think Christmas 4 is going to be the one? I think things like the Wii and DVD show that people are perfectly happy with standard def content.

[Drexl]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

I see Blu-ray going the way of DVD Audio and SACD.

They are not analogous, IMHO. Music was further along in the technology of delivering content, to the point where DVD-Audio and SACD were not much better (multichannel aside). CD was already good enough that many people could not tell the difference. Video, on the other hand, had further to go, and HD video is a noticeable difference over SD video. The next video format will be a better equivalent to DVDA/SACD.

Of course, there is still the question of whether people care enough about the quality.

[cinemaman]

interesting. My main beef with Blu-Ray is

1) the PQ is inconsistently better than SD. Some striking, some 'eh', some not better
2) We can still find more features on SD than BD..
3) BD seems still to be in beta mode. I am getting real tired of hearing how brand new discs won't play, compatibility problems, etc.
4) the whole thing of the profiles is confusing and silly.
5) BD-Live is the single most inane concept I have ever heard about. People having to wait for long period of times just to download something to watch for a few minutes??
6) It's still too slow for me. Sorry - for early adopters, that is fine. But if this is supposed to be 'mainstream' now, they need to fix this.
7) double dipping already? Isn't it a little soon for this??

So I am supposed to pay 2x more money for a gamble on a significantly better PQ with less features on a disc that loads slower than SD and may not work for a title that may be double dipped soon? That is just nuts to me.

I really want to buy into this, but every time I read reviews and articles on this stuff, I end up being in the 'SD is just fine right now, thank you' category.

Sorry.. That's just how I feel right now.

[videoguy]

I wouldn't mind seeing an SD flash memory player & recorder become popular. They already exist on some machines in the form of AVCHD. In five years, a big enough SD card will only cost a couple dollars. Think of the advantages in storage!

[tonymontana313]

It all comes down to releases. I have a couple of friends that jumped to hi-def with Iron Man because they felt that they wanted the best possible version of the movie. Imagine how many more people are going to take the hi-def plunge with The Dark Knight.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by tonymontana313

It all comes down to releases. I have a couple of friends that jumped to hi-def with Iron Man because they felt that they wanted the best possible version of the movie. Imagine how many more people are going to take the hi-def plunge with The Dark Knight.

But will they go out and re-buy all of their DVDs in Blu-ray? Or buy all major Day and Dates in BD over DVD - even with the $10-$15 difference? That's what the studios want to happen but I just can't see it. I can see being selective with what you pick up, but many are already heavily invested in DVD and have no reason to dump their DVDs worth $1-$5 for a $20 BD. (This is not directed at you BTW)

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by True_Story1011

speaking of Pro-B, Does anyone know how many BD's he currently owns?

Good to see you too True_Story!

Too bad Toshiba did not see the announcement. Soon they will be disappointed again.

Pro-B

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by clappj

Pro-B please report to this thread immediately...

From someone with a slightly better record on the prediction front who this forum loves to hate:

Bill Hunt:

First things first this afternoon: We're pleased as punch to present Adam's penultimate Hell Plaza Oktoberfest review for this year: A little ditty from Mondo Macabro called The Watcher in the Attic. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for the piece de resistance of Jahnke's Halloween-y review efforts.

Okay... now then... I promised you guys a rant about the Blu-ray Disc format, didn't I? Well, here it is. Lock the doors and batten down the hatches...

As you may know, there have been a couple of recent reports online that the Blu-ray format is D.O.A. or otherwise doomed to failure. The most recent such proclamation is an alarmist piece by ZDNet's Robin Harris, that has resulted in a small flood of e-mails from readers today, some concerned, many skeptical and all curious as to our reaction.

Look, folks... let's have a little perspective here. People have been predicting the death of Blu-ray Disc for more than two years now. And many of those doing so were either staunch HD-DVD supporters previously or simply NEVER saw much of a future for Blu-ray or high-definition discs. Harris, it seems to me, falls into the latter category. He's a fine guy, I'm sure, but from what I've read of his work, he's never really been much of a videophile. He's a storage guy. Hard drives. It says so right there in his bio: "Robin Harris has been selling and marketing data storage for over 20 years in companies large and small." There's nothing wrong with that, and more power to him. But I don't expect him to be any kind of advocate for a home video format, other than one based around a downloading model. And he's hardly the person to best judge the future of what is, at its very essence, a HOME VIDEO FORMAT.

That's not to say that Harris doesn't make some valid points. The BDA's licensing fees are too high, and there are still too many barriers (not the least of which is cost) to smaller content producers adopting the format. I'll give you a few more obstacles the format faces: Blu-ray Disc player and movie prices are still too high. Studios should cut software prices across the board by $5 to $10. Profile 2.0 players should become standard and cheap, and fast. The need to continually update player firmware for title after title has been very frustrating, most recently with the James Bond Blu-rays. That's not a big deal if you have a PS3, but if you have a profile 1.0 or 1.1 player, it means either downloading and burning a firmware update disc, or calling the manufacturer's tech support line and requesting one be sent to you by mail. That's a pain in the ass, and the industry needs to figure out a way to make it easier. The economic slowdown and the lengthy format war haven't helped either. I do think the industry should take a look at Harris' recommendations for what a more "forward looking strategy" for the Blu-ray format ought to look like. I actually agree with a couple of them.

But let's get real here. Blu-ray is NOT dead. It's not close to death. It's not even remotely sick or ailing. Saying otherwise is simply a clever ploy to get a LOT of people to read your columns. Look folks, Blu-ray is still essentially a NEW format to most people. This is the format's FIRST YEAR of unopposed exposure to consumers - the first year it hasn't been embroiled in a bitter format dispute with HD-DVD. The standard DVD format didn't begin to really take off until well over a year after its Divx pay-per-view nemesis finally died. It's worth noting that my prediction has ALWAYS been that Blu-ray and DVD would co-exist for many years, and that Blu-ray would gradually increase its market share over time. If I had to guess, I think the mix a few years from now is going to be 50% DVD, 30-40% Blu-ray and some smaller percentage of downloading. Blu-ray isn't going to replace DVD, the single most successful format in the history of consumer electronics, and anyone who thinks otherwise is out to lunch. But Blu-ray's future is plenty bright, folks.

Let's look at this from another perspective. One month ago, Paramount's Iron Man became the first Blu-ray Disc release to sell 500,000 units in its first week of release. Industry sources tell me that the title has CONTINUED to sell well and is closing in on 1 million units sold. If Iron Man doesn't get there first, Warner's mega-smash hit The Dark Knight is on deck for release on Blu-ray Disc on 12/9. Does anyone think it isn't going to fly off the shelves too? Either way, by the end of the year (almost certainly by the end of January), one of these two titles - and quite possibly BOTH - could hit 1 million units sold. That milestone will have been reached just a little more than two years after the Blu-ray format was launched. Do you know how long it took DVD to have its first million selling title? Just under THREE years - The Matrix, which debuted on the format in late 1999. Seems like Blu-ray's right on track to me.

The format's got LOTS more going for it too. First, player prices are finally dipping below $250, right on track with the pace in the early days of DVD. Best Buy has its Insignia brand BD player priced at $249, and a Samsung player on sale for $229. Multiple retailers are expected to be selling Blu-ray players for LESS than $200 on Black Friday and for the holiday season. According to Video Business, Sears will be selling Sony's BDP-S350 for just $179.99 and Samsung's BD-P1500 for $199.99, both profile 2.0/BD-Live ready players. Look for other BD player deals at select retailers to follow, some as low as $149.

Second, look at all the great titles available! You know, earlier this year many of the studios were telling me that big titles were coming for the holidays, and that the floodgates were really going to open in 2009, but I STILL didn't expect the torrent of great titles we're seeing now. Consider the new releases alone... Transformers, Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, The Dark Knight, Cloverfield, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, Hancock, Wall-E, Sex and the City, Tropic Thunder, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Rambo, There Will Be Blood, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Kung Fu Panda, Casino Royale and many, many others.

Now consider the AMAZING catalog titles that have been (or will soon be) released on Blu-ray... SIX vintage James Bond films, ALL of the Austin Powers films, Sleeping Beauty, Blade Runner, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, The Godfather Collection, ALL of the Terminator films, Starship Troopers, all of the Planet of the Apes films, all of the Pirates of the Caribbean films, Casablanca, How the West Was Won, L.A. Confidential, JFK, all of The Matrix films, FIVE Stanley Kubrick films including 2001, The Nightmare Before Christmas, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, the Omen films, Bonnie and Clyde, the Die Hard films, ID4, the Mission: Impossible films, Dawn of the Dead, the Dirty Harry films, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, Superman and the Superman II: Director's Cut, the Spider-Man films and on, and on, and on.

In his piece, Harris claims there are few quirky indie films on the format - are you KIDDING me?! Has he seen Transsiberian, Sukiyaki Western Django, Mongol, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Persepolis, Shinobi or any of the MANY such titles now available or coming soon? What about the documentary titles? Baraka, Planet Earth? The TV titles? Heroes, Lost, Sarah Connor Chronicles, Torchwood, Pushing Daisies, Band of Brothers?

You think all of those titles are impressive? Look at the tip of the iceberg of what's coming next year: The Star Trek films, Braveheart, Pinocchio, The Lord of the Rings films, King Kong (1933), The Wizard of Oz, Ben Hur, North by Northwest, the Ghostbusters films, Lawrence of Arabia, Gone with the Wind, the Rush Hour films, The French Connection, Napoleon Dynamite, Office Space, Raging Bull, Ronin, the new Battlestar Galactica TV series and HUNDREDS of others. That's just scratching the surface. There are titles that I KNOW FOR A FACT are in the works for release on Blu-ray in 2009 that will blow your minds, but I can't mention them by name yet. MAJOR catalog releases. For god's sake, folks... The Final Countdown is on Blu-ray! Are you kidding me?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

The question isn't, "Is Harris right?" The question is, "Is Harris even PAYING ATTENTION?" Of course not. He's fine guy... but he's A DATA STORAGE GUY. He's not a film guy. He's not a home video industry expert. Make no mistake, the Hollywood studios are 110% behind the Blu-ray Disc format, folks. So are the hardware manufacturers, and so are all the major retailers. They're going to blow the doors off this format in 2009 in terms of amazing releases. And watch for prices on hardware and software to get even more affordable in the coming year. Blu-ray is going to be around for quite a long while, I don't care what Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Robin Harris tell you. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO BE A MOVIE FAN. PERIOD.

Blu-ray is dead?! Yeah, right! And I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you.

As Charlie Brown might say, "Good grief..."

Pro-B

[DVD Polizei]

Bill is right on the things in his response above, but I still disagree with him on other responses in the days of HD DVD vs. Blu-ray.

Prices of Blu-ray discs was my main concern, and they do have an attractive decline curve of pricing, but you can't expect to buy the latest release every single week and have a wallet left. Regardless, a flagship Blu-ray player is $400 and maybe less by the holiday season, which is great news for me. This will certainly speed up my purchase, and I might get a BD55 by the end of this year rather than Q1 2009.

Blu-ray discs are still, overall, a little pricey. However, overall, they are more affordable to a wider group of adopters than DVD was. I remember when I paid $20-$30 and even $35 for a DVD. Average price for a new release I think is around $22. So, this is in line with the early days of DVD and I might say, a little better when taking into consideration the flagship Blu-ray player prices as I paid $1200 for my Sony flagship DVD player back in the late 90's. Cough.

[Nick Martin]

This forum hates Digital Bits?

That's news to me.

[Darknite39]

This is unrealistic now, but whenever the typical movie reaches that magic $10 price point (or maybe more for a new release packed with features--e.g., I happily paid over $30 for Zodiac when it came out on HD), I'm going to be sitting this one out.

[droidguy1119]

The two things I think that would really kick Blu-Ray up a notch:

1) Lower disc prices. It's not necessarily the hardware that people are unwilling to shell out for. $250 is a fairly reasonable price, IMO -- a video game system costs much more than that. But as Bill says, if discs dropped $10 across the board (I like Warner's $15 catalog titles), that would really push me to buy more blu. I've been selling stuff off in anticipation of replacing them with blus, but I find myself not pulling the trigger on the other end, and it's because I don't want to pay $30 for a movie on a home video format when I could probably get the same video on DVD for a third of that. $25 for digibooks/deluxe editions, $20 for new releases, $15 for catalog releases, and most importantly no more $40 catalog titles, Fox.

2) Consistency. Here are a few bullet points. DTS-MA or Dolby TrueHD on anything and everything, especially new titles. Porting the DVD features. All players at least 1.1, preferably 2.0 with clear, on-the-box identification. No DNR. Etc., etc., etc.

[Brian Shannon]

Lots of good points in the article and I agree with Cinemaman.

I am still content to wait and if downloads continue to gain momentum, I will just upgrade to FIOS and download what I want to watch.

[FantasticVSDoom]

Fact is nothing is going to be the "next dvd"... Even if BD replaces it, dvd was a one time shot. BD will just be the evolution of that product.

Player prices falling really doesnt mean anything. It didnt help HD-DVD. The real issue is the price of the discs themselves. Once that falls more, then you will see the format really take off (obviously this is my own opinion). Sure there are deals out there, but it takes a lot more patience to either wait for sales, or search around. And most people don't really care that much for the purchase of such a luxury product to put that much time in effort into it. They want to be able to walk into Best Buy or Walmart and find the movie they want at a decent price. Also, I agree with Cinemaman. For fucksake already, this is BDs 3rd year in existence, why does it still seem that this product was just released a month ago? All the fucking issues and inconsistencies are a major pain in the ass. Fact is, when BD gets it right, you can see the justification in the higher price. However, this is usually not the case.

And finally, I hate hate hate when writers say "people don't need Blu-Ray!!!" Well they don't need DVD either, but that doesnt stop people from buying them. The market is ready for the upgrade, it just takes someone intellegent enough to see this and plan accordingly.

[rexinnih]

At first I thought it was Robert Harris and I was worried. Robin Harris, some interesting points but fundamentally flawed.

[steebo777]

Since streaming or on-demand can't provide me uncompressed audio yet, I will be sticking with Blu-ray/HD-DVD perosnally. Solid points in the article though, I really do think 'the war' hurt both formats a lot worse than they thought it would.

[Damed]

If they want bluray to take off, they need to make both the hardware and the software within a reasonable margin of it's dvd counterparts. Expecting the masses to spend noticably more on a player, and 2-3 times the amount per disc is a recipe for failure.

[candyrocket786]

Originally Posted by cinemaman

interesting. My main beef with Blu-Ray is

1) the PQ is inconsistently better than SD. Some striking, some 'eh', some not better
2) We can still find more features on SD than BD..
3) BD seems still to be in beta mode. I am getting real tired of hearing how brand new discs won't play, compatibility problems, etc.
4) the whole thing of the profiles is confusing and silly.
5) BD-Live is the single most inane concept I have ever heard about. People having to wait for long period of times just to download something to watch for a few minutes??
6) It's still too slow for me. Sorry - for early adopters, that is fine. But if this is supposed to be 'mainstream' now, they need to fix this.
7) double dipping already? Isn't it a little soon for this??

So I am supposed to pay 2x more money for a gamble on a significantly better PQ with less features on a disc that loads slower than SD and may not work for a title that may be double dipped soon? That is just nuts to me.

I really want to buy into this, but every time I read reviews and articles on this stuff, I end up being in the 'SD is just fine right now, thank you' category.

Sorry.. That's just how I feel right now.

You pretty much nailed it for me.

This format was marketed as the Ultimate Successor to DVD so you think studios would offer their consumers a "definitive version" of their films on Blu-Ray.

Yeah right

[candyrocket786]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

But will they go out and re-buy all of their DVDs in Blu-ray?

Probably not. Epic Action and Sci-fi films maybe.

Let's just say I didn't go apeshit when Universal released "In Good Company" on HD-DVD, especially when I already owned the DVD.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Or buy all major Day and Dates in BD over DVD - even with the $10-$15 difference? That's what the studios want to happen but I just can't see it. I can see being selective with what you pick up, but many are already heavily invested in DVD and have no reason to dump their DVDs worth $1-$5 for a $20 BD. (This is not directed at you BTW)

I think consumers are wiser with DVD/BD pricing. Why buy a title on release day, when I get it $10 cheaper 6 months from now?

[Brian Shannon]

Originally Posted by candyrocket786

I think consumers are wiser with DVD/BD pricing. Why buy a title on release day, when I get it $10 cheaper 6 months from now?

Or wait for one of the inevitable re-releases that are guaranteed to happen.

[Maxflier]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

And again dont pay attention to my signature.

Just a suggestion, but perhaps you could change your signature or drop it completely instead of contradicting yourself and coming off as a hypocrite?

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by candyrocket786

I think consumers are wiser with DVD/BD pricing. Why buy a title on release day, when I get it $10 cheaper 6 months from now?

There is no guarantee that Can't Hard Wait BD will be $10 cheaper at BB 6 months from now (unless its combined with a coupon), but its almost certain you will be able to grab the DVD $10 cheaper (then the original "sale" price on release week for both formats). I wound up passing many times on Day and Date DVDs years ago because 1-3 months later it could be had for half price at the same store. Can't say the same for BDs.