"Blu-ray is dead" proclaims Robin Harrs.

[GreenMonkey]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

Yup. The margins on food and such are much higher than electronics. A general rule of thumb is that the further from the door, less for the store. Exceptions might be toys, where they anticipate adults walking with children through the aisles, etc.

I'm not sure about clothes, but it's not food.

Food normally has a terrible margin...it's there to get folks in the store to buy electronics, etc. The opposite of what most folks here are saying.

This is the opposite of what I always heard working at a Meijer (where most of my family still works). For non-midwesterners Meijer is the chain that kinda pioneered the whole supercenter concept.

I did a little googling for a story that cites that fact...I found one here... talking about this fact at a Walmart...

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pitt.../s_393735.html

There's an enormous truth there, says Michael Bergdahl, a McCandless retail consultant and former Wal-Mart executive, who authored "What I Learned From Sam Walton: How to Compete in a Wal-Mart World."

He explains that Wal-Mart uses groceries as a lure to bring people through the doors. Where a grocery store typically earns a profit margin of 1-2 percent, comparable with the grocery section of a Wal-Mart Supercenter, the general merchandise side of the store earns a wider 8-9 percent margin.

"When you blend the two sides of the store, Wal-Mart has such a tremendous advantage. They can drop their (grocery) prices and still maintain a significant 7 percent margin per store. When you get into a price war, it's not a fair fight."

Groceries are actually the loss leader to get folks into the store to buy stuff. Not the other way around. Groceries have terrible profit margins.

BTW I still think BD is going to remain a niche product - albeit a pretty large niche much bigger than laserdisc. I think people that insist BD will be supplanting DVD, ever, are totally and utterly wrong. DVD is here to stay and will remain the standard for some time (just like CDs). But I learned quite some time ago that many of the BD faithful around here simply won't believe this.

[Moopher]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

On release week? Doubtful. Iron Man sold 500k and TDK might hit 750k. I can't see it being a 1 Million week for it. Maybe a week or two after, sure. (My opinion of course). December is a busy month for people and with the Holidays + poor economy they may spend on other people first before thinking of themselves.

Iron Man and TDK will be 1 Million sellers by January for sure. But we can't count on two titles to carry the format either. After TDK we don't have very many big titles announced.

I apologize if I made it sound like I thought that would be in a weeks time. I really really doubt that as well. But who are we to even say.

And at the same time I completely agree that you can't rely on two movies to pull a format through to a successful future. But it helps. I'm sure there will be a few shining gems a long the way..hopefully.

[musick]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

Please remewmber that the BDA is likely paying stores for those huge sections, according to reports (and common practice). The will come a point of critical mass where the store's customers need the BD section in place more than the BDA does, and if that point does not come then sections will be reduced. Simple marketing.

BDA is paying what stores for what huge sections .... dvd?
my point was BD is doing quite well for what "limited" retail space it has in comparison to dvd

and pretty much all retail floor space is "paid" for in one way or another

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Not sure why you believe this. I share completely the opposite opinion - forcing people to buy two players so they could have access to all HD titles would have completely destroyed any chances for HD to become a mass format to begin with. If what you believe was the case then "neutral" owners would have represented a large number. Quite the contrary: they were the smallest fraction of the three groups. Ending the war was the right thing to do!

Neutral owners would have finally gone UN-neutral, depending on the competition's features of that particular format. This was a free marketplace, Pro-B. It forced the BDA and the DVD Forum to work on their respective formats and make them viable to the consumer, instead of dragging on. A few more years of dual formats, we probably would have seen some major advances in HD. Maybe Toshiba would have offered special features that a majority of HD owners wanted, or maybe Sony would have come up with a rock-solid solution for trouble-free playing with additional features HD DVD never had. Who knows. We'll never know, but historically, competition has favored the consumer and the technology in the long run.

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The consumer did decide and no matter how many times ex-HDDVD supporters come forward and claim that it did not the fact of the matter remains: Blu-ray sold more discs, established a significantly larger base, and the BDA beat Toshiba's camp in marketing/promotion in every possible department.

You obviously remember DVD. Right? So, how long did it take for consumers to finally catch on to DVD? It wasn't a few years, Pro-B. It was like 5 years. Maybe more, come to think of it. If you would have rushed the consumer into a decision only a few years after DVD was introduced, telling consumers VHS is no longer going to made--PERIOD--DVD would have had a much harder time. Like HD is now.

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The quick solution to profits was actually a move initiated by Paramount and not Warner as you suggest. Had they remained neutral the war would have ended even faster.The post-war rhetoric that Warner took money is just as misleading as the notion that somehow the consumer did not decide which format is to be the successor of SDVD. There really isn't any need to go back to all war-theories that never came to fruition.

Pro-B

Pro-B, do we really have to bring up Warner again and their obvious incentives to go Blu? Just before CES 2008, WB couldn't find its ass if you gave them a map, a GPS, and a mirror. No, somebody offered them something. And it wasn't a map. Although I'd offer one to them now.

But anyway, I disagree with you. What we can agree on, is Blu-ray is gaining momentum. And this is good for HD in general.

[AGuyNamedMike]

Sorry, I'm too busy watching my BDs to read some nobody's stupid blog.

[Mikael79]

Originally Posted by Moopher

Every format is going to or has put out movies people rarely buy.. You should know, you bought Zombie Strippers.

Zing! Pretty good for a relative newbie!

[tonymontana313]

Seriously, I'll go ahead and enjoy my new releases and catalogs on Blu-ray while a certain few can proclaim it's dead from the top of their lungs. But when it comes down to it, I'll take 1080p and lossless over 480i and lossy any day of the week!

[darkside]

Originally Posted by tonymontana313

Seriously, I'll go ahead and enjoy my new releases and catalogs on Blu-ray while a certain few can proclaim it's dead from the top of their lungs. But when it comes down to it, I'll take 1080p and lossless over 480i and lossy any day of the week!

I'm definitely not buying dead. The laserdisc thing was what struck me as a possibility. Hopefully though it does have a solid 4th quarter and all the BD is dying stories on Yahoo and Cnet will go away. If those stories get all over the press and cause potential consumers to avoid the format it is a self fulfilling prophecy.

I am renting more now due to higher disc costs so I'm hoping we see more deals in 2009 though to be honest I'm glad I didn't buy most of the stuff I rented. Who would have though BD would save me money with its higher cost. I'm happy the blockbusters are doing well, but I would like to see the classic films like Young Frankenstein post percentages that are respectable as well. I want more classic stuff (still patiently waiting for Lawrence of Arabia since seeing it in the BD demo in 2006) and more of those films will get me spending more money on purchases. That is the area though I'm worried won't get enough support from BD buyers. Wish we could know how Godfather and stuff like Young Frankenstein and Bonnie and Clyde did on Blu-ray.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Neutral owners would have finally gone UN-neutral, depending on the competition's features of that particular format.

I am totally lost as I don't understand the point you are attempting to make. First you supported the notion of duality then you conclude that the natural progression is becoming "un-neutral". Warner put to rest any such concerns by providing the fastest and least painful solution. So, your point?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

This was a free marketplace, Pro-B. It forced the BDA and the DVD Forum to work on their respective formats and make them viable to the consumer, instead of dragging on.

Agreed. And this is the reason why Toshiba folded it. The BDA beat them in marketing and promotion and won. I am unsure again what your point is. As to competition: I share the opinion that especially in terms of hardware advancement it brought the worst out of a few well known manufacturers (Samsung).

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

A few more years of dual formats, we probably would have seen some major advances in HD.

On this one I must disagree. The majority of the extra features both HDDVD and Blu-ray touted have not proven to be a key point in HD's adoption by the masses. This also appears to be the mantra many ex-HDDVD supporters argue on this and other forums: that there are not enough revolutionary advancements Blu-ray offers over SDVD. Do you have anything particular in mind that you believe would have proven to be a key factor in the future? I ask because even though the critics have been vociferous they do not seem to have any idea what the revolutionary advancements could have been?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Maybe Toshiba would have offered special features that a majority of HD owners wanted, or maybe Sony would have come up with a rock-solid solution for trouble-free playing with additional features HD DVD never had. Who knows. We'll never know, but historically, competition has favored the consumer and the technology in the long run.

I tend to agree with you that no one knows. But from what we have seen thus far it seems like the overwhelming majority of HD enthusiasts who are truly interested in HD becoming the norm, not the bitter ex-HDDVD supporters and "neutrals" who are on a mission to appease hurt egos by belittling the format, have been primarily concerned with top-notch audio and video treatment. I personally still support the same philosophy I followed during the war: solid audio/video treatment is what is important to me. Everything else, interactivity, extras, etc is unimportant and pointless if the above two categories aren't handled adequately. Seeing how people react to Warner's audio mishaps I think that this a truer than ever observation that applies to the market we wish to build.

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

You obviously remember DVD. Right? So, how long did it take for consumers to finally catch on to DVD? It wasn't a few years, Pro-B. It was like 5 years. Maybe more, come to think of it. If you would have rushed the consumer into a decision only a few years after DVD was introduced, telling consumers VHS is no longer going to made--PERIOD--DVD would have had a much harder time. Like HD is now.

Agreed. But you fail to point the fact that DVD did not have a direct competitor (DIVX was not it). You also continue to believe that the consumer did not choose. Finally, you also believe that extended neutrality would have benefited the consumer. On the above two points I disagree with you. In fact, as I noted earlier to you Paramount simply delayed the inevitable. One of the key reasons DVD succeeded was because there was a united family of distribs willing to support the format. I thought and I still believe that together with the unified hardware support Blu-ray boasted it was the format to bet on. Obviously, your neutrality stance on the issue suggests that you disagree.

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Pro-B, do we really have to bring up Warner again and their obvious incentives to go Blu?

Look, it just so happens that the overwhelming majority of the people who insist that Warner took a payoff and the consumer did not win happen to be ex-HDDVD supporters. I am sorry to say it but on this forum alone we have argued a number of times why Warner went Blu. For many it is obvious why - it unified the market. Yet, the only obvious for the HDDVD camp fact is that Warner took a payoff and the consumer lost. This is a very illogical stance to say the least which effectively contradicts the fact that the BDA beat Toshiba in marketing and promotion and secured better sales. They also secured a better consumer base via the PS3 (which is definitely paying off as we are on track to witness 2 million $ sellers, something it took DVD a long time to achieve. And yes, Blu-ray has been on its own for less than yer, with all of the majors behind for an ever shorter period of time. These are very important details the critics fail to mention, let alone compare to SDVD). Plain and simple there were more Blu-ray potential customers than there were HDDVD customers and regardless of the price cuts Toshiba initiated the red camp never managed to compete adequately.

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

Just before CES 2008, WB couldn't find its ass if you gave them a map, a GPS, and a mirror. No, somebody offered them something. And it wasn't a map. Although I'd offer one to them now.

I am unsure about your reference.

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

But anyway, I disagree with you. What we can agree on, is Blu-ray is gaining momentum. And this is good for HD in general.

I understand. This being said, Blu-ray is indeed the only game in town now and for anyone who claims to be interested in the advancement of HD Blu-ray is the format to support. Plain and simple there is one horse to bet on.

Pro-B

[tonymontana313]

Originally Posted by darkside

I'm definitely not buying dead. The laserdisc thing was what struck me as a possibility. Hopefully though it does have a solid 4th quarter and all the BD is dying stories on Yahoo and Cnet will go away. If those stories get all over the press and cause potential consumers to avoid the format it is a self fulfilling prophecy.

The problem is there is no alternative for the hi def aficionado so even if you think Blu-ray is on shaky legs, Blu-ray is the only option to get full hi-def right now.

[BigDaddy]

Originally Posted by The Bus

I haven't seen the point of buying the same amount of discs in BD (or HD DVD) as I did in the past with DVDs. The prices are simply much, much higher. I think 80-90% of my purchases were during DDD sales, first week sales, or once the title had reached the sub-$10 bin. Not many movies are worth $20, let alone the $25 to $40 you sometimes see at Best Buy, etc. I mean, give me a fucking break. Remember the Titans for $30? Best Buy is one of the main B&M stores where most people who are coming into the format are going to be seeing the selection and prices.

The economy certainly isn't helping, and if anything will make sure DVD retains its popularity as it is super-cheap right now.

And no matter the Blu-ray, it doesn't and can never compare to a great theater experience.

I just want lower software prices. Catalog titles should carry a max $20 MSRP unless it's something like Blade Runner where there's more than two discs.

Agreed I remember the end of August of 2000 is when Best Buy started putting out a lot of new dvd's at 15.99. I remember Braveheart being one of the first.

[awil1026]

Originally Posted by candyrocket786

I've noticed that my "Regular" Target Stores have the electronics section in the back and the "Super" Targets have it next to the door.

A brand-spankin new Super Target here has electronics in the back. I've seen it in the front next to the doors at other Supers, though.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

The bottom line is that if another item can increase the bottom line more than BD, then they will move it. Target is especially fickle, so your words could come back to bite you using them as an example more than other retailers.

Well, I'd tell you what. I agree with you, there are items that will be moved, but for Walmart these two items would be CDs and DVD:

http://homemediamagazine.com/high-de...-blu-ray-13819

By Erik Gruenwedel | Posted: 03 Nov 2008
egruenwedel@questex.com


Report: Wal-Mart Replacing Music with Blu-ray


Wal-Mart Stores is rapidly downsizing shelf space for music CDs while increasing availability of Blu-ray and consumer electronics in select locations, according to a new report.

The Bentonville, Ark.-based retail behemoth, citing a 23% drop in CD sales during the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, continues to scale back inventories of music packaged media; supplanting it with electronics and movies.

“We believe Wal-Mart is increasing its exposure to consumer electronics, video games and Blu-ray, and reducing floor space devoted to CDs and standard DVDs,” said Richard Greenfield, analyst with Pali Capital, in a note.

Greenfield said the chain’s floor space devoted to DVD, including Blu- ray, ranged from up modestly to down slightly.

Pali reported that an accelerated rate of sales decline for CDs combined with the slowing of digital unit sales had resulted in Q4 total unit sales declining 11.6%, compared to a 11.3% decline during the previous year period.

Total music sales fell 5% to 7% in the first three quarters of 2008.

In an analyst meeting last week, John Fleming, chief marketing officer with Wal-Mart, said electronics would be getting space expansion in stores due to the decline in physical packaged media.

“In electronics, where all the digital products are getting space expansions, and some of the physical packaged media, CDs, movies, are coming down dramatically so that we can space the growth categories,” Fleming said.

Greenfield said Wal-Mart’s continued exposure to music would be limited to exclusive CD releases such as AC/DC’s Black Ice & No Bull, which included a Web site and sales opportunities for related content such as DVDs, video games and gear.

“As packaged media continues to fade, Wal-Mart is focused on acquiring exclusive rights to music content, which enables it to sell multiple products to a consumer at one time; not just an $11.99 CD,” Greenfield wrote.

He said Wal-Mart’s scaled-back interest in music coupled with the potential bankruptcy of Circuit City Stores, a top music CD retailer, portends a bleak 2008 holiday season for the music industry.

Edward Woo, analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles, concurred and said consumer demand for physical CDs would continue spiraling downward.

“The demise of specialty music stores gives you a good idea that the market is shrinking fast,” Woo said.

Pro-B

[GizmoDVD]

Well clearly that's it people. Wal-mart has taken a turn to kill DVD and CD by promoting Blu-ray. We all know how well that went last year for HD DVD.

Of course the whole article is talking about the demise of CD's, you just cherry-picked that they added Blu-ray to the mix along with videogames and other consumer electronics. Guess we'll know soon enough if Blu-ray is a success or not. 2 more months left of Q4! Can't wait to see if they hit their 1 Billion dollar goal for the year.

[Josh-da-man]

Wal-Mart's music selection is absolute shit. In all of the Wal-Mart's near me, it's about 1/3 country-western, 1/3 latin, and 1/3 everything else. And they won't sell PA CDs, so there's an incentive to avoid them for music needs. (No self-respecting metalhead is going to buy and "amended" copy of Slipknot's new album there.)

[Moopher]

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man

Wal-Mart's music selection is absolute shit. In all of the Wal-Mart's near me, it's about 1/3 country-western, 1/3 latin, and 1/3 everything else. And they won't sell PA CDs, so there's an incentive to avoid them for music needs. (No self-respecting metalhead is going to buy and "amended" copy of Slipknot's new album there.)

No self-respecting metalhead would buy that album to begin with.. Hahaha

But honestly it's not horrible, because if the vulgarities are not clear, they don't amend the CD's. I've bought Dimmu Borgir, Cradle of Filth and Devildriver with no amendments on them. It's not THAT terrible.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Well clearly that's it people. Wal-mart has taken a turn to kill DVD and CD by promoting Blu-ray.

It is a step in a direction some here thought would be reversed if we were to put Target in the mix. It is pretty obvious the market is moving in a different direction.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

We all know how well that went last year for HD DVD.

I must be missing the obvious parallel here. HDDVD never had the type of exposure Blu-ray is currently enjoying at Walmarts around the country. And this exposure is getting even bigger according to the report above.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Of course the whole article is talking about the demise of CD's, you just cherry-picked that they added Blu-ray to the mix along with videogames and other consumer electronics.

I find the fact that DVD's exposure would be reduced and Blu-ray's presence increased notable. Only because a lot here are convinced that the 5$ bins are a key factor in Walmart and the studios' portfolio. These new developments seem to suggest otherwise. Feel free to disagree.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Guess we'll know soon enough if Blu-ray is a success or not. 2 more months left of Q4! Can't wait to see if they hit their 1 Billion dollar goal for the year.

There is no need to guess. There have been multiple sources, including the latest Variety article posted on this forum, showing that these estimates are adjusted due to the economic crisis. With other words, you could expect the CEOs to announce that Blu-ray is doing quite well if they secure the two million $ sellers. And I personally believe that this is indeed more than likely.

Pro-B

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by LickTheABCs

It doesn't, but I'm not going to declare that Blu-ray is dead because a movie that nobody is expecting to do well, doesn't do well. Just like I'm not going to believe in 2 years that Blu-ray will overtake DVD, because a Blu-ray that everyone expected to sell well, actually sells well.

Careful, you will be branded with open-minded thinking like that.

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by tonymontana313

The problem is there is no alternative for the hi def aficionado so even if you think Blu-ray is on shaky legs, Blu-ray is the only option to get full hi-def right now.

Great point. I think people (here) come down mostly in one of two camps:

Those that are OK with BD being an enthusiast format

and

Those who believe that BD will supplant DVD.

You can be a BD supporter and not believe it will ever be more than an enthusiast's format, contrary to what some are preaching.

[Damed]

So October's weekly average was 19 million, with Iron Man, TIH and KOTCS.

Let's see if they can hit 12 million in November. I doubt it.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by Damed

So October was almost 18 million, with Iron Man, TIH and KOTCS.

Let's see if they can hit 12 million in November. I doubt it.

?

October
week 1: $26.84 mil
week 2: $14.37 mil
week 3: $17.94 mil
week 4: $17.71 mill

total: $76.86 million

[Damed]

Sorry, my bad. Meant to say average week. Will edit.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

It is a step in a direction some here thought would be reversed if we were to put Target in the mix. It is pretty obvious the market is moving in a different direction.


I must be missing the obvious parallel here. HDDVD never had the type of exposure Blu-ray is currently enjoying at Walmarts around the country. And this exposure is getting even bigger according to the report above.


I find the fact that DVD's exposure would be reduced and Blu-ray's presence increased notable. Only because a lot here are convinced that the 5$ bins are a key factor in Walmart and the studios' portfolio. These new developments seem to suggest otherwise. Feel free to disagree.



There is no need to guess. There have been multiple sources, including the latest Variety article posted on this forum, showing that these estimates are adjusted due to the economic crisis. With other words, you could expect the CEOs to announce that Blu-ray is doing quite well if they secure the two million $ sellers. And I personally believe that this is indeed more than likely.

Pro-B

It's almost too cute.

[chanster]

Actually that article that Pro B posted about Wal Mart seems to support the idea that retailers are getting on board with digital delivery, while "packaged media" is slowly on its way out.

If you strip away the analyst quote and just look at what the actual Wal Mart exec says:

In an analyst meeting last week, John Fleming, chief marketing officer with Wal-Mart, said electronics would be getting space expansion in stores due to the decline in physical packaged media.

“In electronics, where all the digital products are getting space expansions, and some of the physical packaged media, CDs, movies, are coming down dramatically so that we can space the growth categories,” Fleming said.

Last time I checked, Blu Ray discs still only contain movies. It seems from the quote that video games are definitely getting an expansion.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by chanster

Actually that article that Pro B posted about Wal Mart seems to support the idea that retailers are getting on board with digital delivery, while "packaged media" is slowly on its way out.

If you strip away the analyst quote and just look at what the actual Wal Mart exec says:

Last time I checked, Blu Ray discs still only contain movies. It seems from the quote that video games are definitely getting an expansion.

I was hoping someone else would point that out along with

As packaged media continues to fade,

I guess that only goes to help prove that Downloads are on their way!