Blu-ray Disc Sales Figures Discussion - Part II

[Drexl]

Regarding GizmoDVD's comment about Criterion from Part I:

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

So what your saying is when Criterion hits the market all the current DVD owners will rush out to buy Blu-ray players and snap up all the Criterion discs in record speed, right? Because they are the more affluent movie watcher and smarter then everyone else. Got it.

That weeks Nielsen should be pretty interesting to see. Can't wait to see The Love Guru selling more copies then 'insert random foreign film that only smart people watch'.

I don't think it's the sales so much as it is the perception. To those who collect DVDs but doubt BD will make it, having the last major distributor (a very respected one at that) involved sends the message that the format is here to stay, at least for a while. Even if they don't buy Criterion discs, just having them available is a good thing.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Drexl

Regarding GizmoDVD's comment about Criterion from Part I:



I don't think it's the sales so much as it is the perception. To those who collect DVDs but doubt BD will make it, having the last major distributor (a very respected one at that) involved sends the message that the format is here to stay, at least for a while. Even if they don't buy Criterion discs, just having them available is a good thing.

Understandable. My whole point was I doubt all the fence sitters will run out and buy a BD player because El Norte or The Wages of Fear was released. Obviously another member feels otherwise, but the Nielson charts will clearly show who is right, and who is wrong.

Criterion has less then 10 discs that I would ever consider buying from them on Blu-ray (that have been announced or previously released). Bottle Rocket may be my one and only purchase from them for a long time unless they crank out some Wes Anderson films.

[DVD Polizei]

I have to agree with GizmoDVD. Price is going to be a major factor if Criterion wants to sell Blu-ray titles outside of their fan club.

As far as perception, I know dozens of people who collect movies and who I consider typical movie collectors--not really dedicated but have a humble collection--and yet have never heard of them. Blu-ray won't add to any perception because Blu-ray owners to begin with weren't holding out for Criterion--they were holding out for the larger studios like WB and Universal. It's great Criterion is offering Blu, but let's switch this around a little.

If Critierion announced they were going Blu before Warner Brothers announced their Blu announcement back in January, how many of us would have said, "Holy shit! Criterion is going Blu! Well, that's it. Game over man. I'm going Blu."

Another issue is...will the picture quality really be that much better on most of the films Criterion will offer on Blu.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Obviously another member feels otherwise, but the Nielson charts will clearly show who is right, and who is wrong.

The member you refer to did not say that all the fence sitters will run out and purchase hardware/software. This is a statement you produced.

What I meant to say is in my post - the fact that Criterion will enter the market will certainly have an effect. A widespread effect(s) in fact: from psychological (raising BR awareness amongst consumers who up to this point may not have been enticed by the majors and their output) to promotional (giving confidence to other smaller distribs who may have not been certain about the format's future progression). If your perception about effect is limited only to immediate hardware/software spikes in sales then that is an altogether different issue. I believe Drexl's post clarifies precisely that.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Criterion has less then 10 discs that I would ever consider buying from them on Blu-ray (that have been announced or previously released). Bottle Rocket may be my one and only purchase from them for a long time unless they crank out some Wes Anderson films.

Fine.

Pro-B

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

I have to agree with GizmoDVD. Price is going to be a major factor if Criterion wants to sell Blu-ray titles outside of their fan club.

As far as perception, I know dozens of people who collect movies and who I consider typical movie collectors--not really dedicated but have a humble collection--and yet have never heard of them. Blu-ray won't add to any perception because Blu-ray owners to begin with weren't holding out for Criterion--they were holding out for the larger studios like WB and Universal. It's great Criterion is offering Blu, but let's switch this around a little.

If Critierion announced they were going Blu before Warner Brothers announced their Blu announcement back in January, how many of us would have said, "Holy shit! Criterion is going Blu! Well, that's it. Game over man. I'm going Blu."

While Criterion prices on DVD can be considered nuts ($40 for a title very few have ever heard of while Step Up 2 is $15), in Blu-ray land, if they do price their Blu-rays at their typical DVD rate, they would be (sadly) on the same level as Fox. Those already use to Criterion prices won't bat an eye at spending the same amount for the Blu-ray if they do in fact have the player.

But there are a few factors here. To those that actually collect Criterion's (and there are, they buy every release), will they suddenly stop DVD and buy Blu-ray? Or buy both DVD and Blu-ray copies? Even if they buy a Blu-ray player, will they buy the other studio films?

I'm in the camp of Criterion won't make a lick of difference. A smaller studio like Weinstein or Anchor Bay has a better shot of selling more discs then Criterion ever will on Blu considering their catalog appeals more to the current Blu-ray demographic. Now, that may change in the coming months/years, but right now, The Mist or Evil Dead II has a much better chance of selling more titles then even one of the most requested to-do Criterion's in the past ten years, Bottle Rocket. But that's just one mans opinion.

As for Criterion going Blu before Warner...I don't see why they would have picked either side. I can't imagine they would care about online functions or gimmicky games and whatnot. They simply want to give film buffs the chance to own a unique movie. You can argue for both formats though...Blu had a 50GB disc (more space = more extras on the same disc), HD DVD had combo (a way to still collect DVDs but get an HD DVD version as well).

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

I have to agree with GizmoDVD. Price is going to be a major factor if Criterion wants to sell Blu-ray titles outside of their fan club.

How so? Criterion have announced that their BR releases will be carrying the same price tag as their SDVD releases.

Pro-B

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The member you refer to did not say that all the fence sitters will run out and purchase hardware/software. This is a statement you produced.

What I meant to say is in my post - the fact that Criterion will enter the market will certainly have an effect. A widespread effect(s) in fact: from psychological (raising BR awareness amongst consumers who up to this point may not have been enticed by the majors and their output) to promotional (giving confidence to other smaller distribs who may have not been certain about the format's future progression). If your perception about effect is limited only to immediate hardware/software spikes in sales then that is an altogether different issue. I believe Drexl's post clarifies precisely that.
Pro-B

Most typical consumers know nothing about Criterion. You could walk up to random people at Best Buy in the DVD aisle and ask them to name 3 Criterion titles and I could almost guarantee they would not know what you were talking about. Now, ask them to name the villains in Spider-Man and boom, you would get a response. The typical consumer is the one that wonders why they can't get Bourne Identity or Lord of the Rings on Blu-ray. They don't care about El Norte or any of the announced titles. Now, if Criterion manages to get the rights back to Armageddon...than yeah, they might care.

Now, from a studio way...yeah, it might help push the little guys to release in Blu (or at least think about it). But that's of course if those smaller studios can even afford to produce and press the discs (unless the BDA helps them out).

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Most typical consumers know nothing about Criterion. You could walk up to random people at Best Buy in the DVD aisle and ask them to name 3 Criterion titles and I could almost guarantee they would not know what you were talking about. Now, ask them to name the villains in Spider-Man and boom, you would get a response. The typical consumer is the one that wonders why they can't get Bourne Identity or Lord of the Rings on Blu-ray. They don't care about El Norte or any of the announced titles. Now, if Criterion manages to get the rights back to Armageddon...than yeah, they might care.

I already addressed your argument. Here it is again--Criterion are not concerned with most typical consumers, whatever that is meant to characterize. If they were they would have adjusted their pricing scheme accordingly when SDVD was at its peak. They did not.

Criterion are concerned with providing (arguably) the best possible presentation for the films they either own or have licensing rights for through Janus/second parties, as well as the most informative extras to supplant it.

Hence your analogy is irrelevant.

Pro-B

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

I already addressed your argument. Here it is again--Criterion are not concerned with most typical consumers, whatever that is meant to characterize. If they were they would have adjusted their pricing scheme accordingly when SDVD was at its peak. They did not.

Criterion are concerned with providing (arguably) the best possible presentation for the films they either own or have licensing rights for through Janus/second parties, as well as the most informative extras to supplant it.

Hence your analogy is irrelevant.

Pro-B

So if they only sell 500 copies of El Norte, Criterion would be happy and continue to release Blu-rays? They are a business and they are here to make money, not provide the best presentation to a film that garners no sales and no revenue. That's why I think they should have come out of the gate with a few more of their more well known titles (Wes Anderson films for example) before they went completely unknown. But I'm done. Were not going to agree so this is useless.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

That's why I think they should have come out of the gate with a few more of their more well known titles (Wes Anderson films for example) before they went completely unknown. But I'm done. Were not going to agree so this is useless.

Indeed. This is a good point to part ways on Criterion and their future plans.

I don't believe that the following list of announced films and their creators - Godard, Truffaut, Bertolucci, Clouzot, and Reed amongst others - can be referred to as completely unknown:

The Third Man
Bottle Rocket
Chungking Express
The Man Who Fell to Earth
The Last Emperor
El Norte
The 400 Blows
Gimme Shelter
The Complete Monterey Pop
Contempt
Walkabout
For All Mankind
The Wages of Fear

Ciao,
Pro-B

[DVD Polizei]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

How so? Criterion have announced that their BR releases will be carrying the same price tag as their SDVD releases.

Pro-B

Is this what you're referring to:

Alongside our DVD and Blu-ray box sets of The Last Emperor, we’ll also be putting out the theatrical version as a stand-alone release in both formats, priced at $39.95

That doesn't sound like all their Blu-ray titles are going to be the same price as their SD DVD counterpart. All it tells me is The Last Emperor will be released from Criterion in the theatrical version (a stripped-down Criterion version), and that version will be priced the same on both formats.

If you're referring to something else, let me know. I don't see any other announcements about Blu on Criterion's website except one little bleep of a page--I was expecting a little more info from their news release.

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

I don't believe that the following list of announced films and their creators - Godard, Truffaut, Bertolucci, Clouzot, and Reed amongst others - can be referred to as completely unknown

Ok, how about virtually unknown.

I'd love for more people to easily recognize these names, but to be honest, most do not--at least in the United States, which says something, but I'll leave that MPAA & US Studio discussion for another time. Most DVD collectors on this forum do not, either. I mean really, where's the Criterion Talk forum. A majority of DVD viewers are more into current pulp and television. It's not wrong or right or bad or good, but it's just how it is.

Criterion fills a niche within a niche of movie collectors. Maybe they can achieve a higher publicity status going Blu-ray. It's going to be tough, being what they already are.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei

That doesn't sound like all their Blu-ray titles are going to be the same price as their SD DVD counterpart. All it tells me is The Last Emperor will be released from Criterion in the theatrical version (a stripped-down Criterion version), and that version will be priced the same on both formats.

If you're referring to something else, let me know. I don't see any other announcements about Blu on Criterion's website except one little bleep of a page--I was expecting a little more info from their news release.

From Criterion's own site:
http://www.criterion.com/blu-rayannounce.html

May 8, 2008

We’ve got some exciting news for this fall: our first Blu-ray discs are coming! We’ve picked a little over a dozen titles from the collection for Blu-ray treatment, and we’ll begin rolling them out in October. These new editions will feature glorious high-definition picture and sound, all the supplemental content of the DVD releases, and they will be priced to match our standard-def editions....

Ciao,
Pro-B

[BuckNaked2k]

I think adding Criterion is a nice feather in the cap of Blu-ray, and little else.

I would be curious to see sales figures for their last X number of releases. I don't know how well their titles sell, but the numbers can't be huge. Pricing their upcoming Blu-rays at the same price-point as the corresponding DVDs was either a stroke of genius or an absolute necessity.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that we few enthusiasts on this and other like-forums are in any way representative of the general public when it comes to the Criterion Collection, and the high regard in which it is held.

[Coral]

I haven't purchased a Blu-Ray player yet as there are very few movies on the format so far that I want to own an HD copy of. I've purchased 2 wanted titles early because the price is nice, and there are 2 more titles I want that are available but I'm waiting for a price drop. When there are enough titles (maybe 10-20) that I really want out on the format, that's when I'll buy a player.

With Criterion releasing on Blu-Ray, the odds of me buying a player sooner than later increases exponentially. There are probably around 100 titles in the Criterion collection that I would love to have on Blu-Ray. But I have to agree that Criterion is a niche market and won't make a big dent in Blu-Ray adoption. As someone else mentioned, it's a niche within a niche. It'll attract more cinephiles to the format (not a large group) and does give the format that added prestige.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Criterion has less then 10 discs that I would ever consider buying from them on Blu-ray (that have been announced or previously released).

Out of close to 450 titles available in the collection you can't find 10+ titles worth owning? Is this only because most of the films are either foreign or independant films? Have you watched many of the films? We all have different tastes in movies, I'm just curious.

[BuckNaked2k]

07/06/2008 numbers released:

HomeMediaMagazine

Blu-ray sales DOWN 11.45% over previous week to $7.86 Million.....7% of Top 20 vs. DVD Top 20.

DVD was DOWN also, losing 6.26% over previous week.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Coral

Out of close to 450 titles available in the collection you can't find 10+ titles worth owning? Is this only because most of the films are either foreign or independant films? Have you watched many of the films? We all have different tastes in movies, I'm just curious.

Nope. The only ones I can think of off the top of my head are Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, Royal Tennebaums, Life Aquatic, Chasing Amy and Brazil. From there, I'd even stretch it a bit to films they no longer own (or can produce...not sure what the term is) like Armageddon, Silence of the Lambs, Robocop.... Yeah, that's it.

I worked at Hollywood Video (well, the game side) for a few years and for some odd reason we had a pretty decent collection of Criterion DVDs (maybe 50-60) and I would often take one of them home with whatever the flavor of the week DVD release was. I'm no stranger to Criterion, their films just don't wow me. And yes, I would always check to see who would rent out the Criterion DVDs...and it wasn't many...at all. That's why I was amazed that we actually had a pretty big selection of titles.

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by BuckNaked2k

I think adding Criterion is a nice feather in the cap of Blu-ray, and little else.

I would be curious to see sales figures for their last X number of releases. I don't know how well their titles sell, but the numbers can't be huge. Pricing their upcoming Blu-rays at the same price-point as the corresponding DVDs was either a stroke of genius or an absolute necessity.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that we few enthusiasts on this and other like-forums are in any way representative of the general public when it comes to the Criterion Collection, and the high regard in which it is held.

You hit the nail right on the head here. It may be sad that the talent under the Criterion banner is not more widely recognized, but it is what it is.

[pro-bassoonist]

Blu-ray Is Booming; Wall Street Analysts Are Blooming Idiots

One analyst says Wall Street doesn't understand the home video industry, he's right.

By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (July 14, 2008) -- Consumers have spent $194 million on Blu-ray high-def discs in the first six months of 2008 -- a 350 percent over sales of both Blu-ray and HD DVD titles in the first six months of last year.

That's according to an article by The Hollywood Reporter.

The publication adds that Blu-ray sales revenue alone should triple the amount of digital downloading revenue in 2008. One analyst says the high-def disc's advantage is evidence that Wall Street doesn't understand the tech industry.

Many Wall Street analysts have said digital downloads -- downloading movies over the Net directly to your home TV -- will soon replace both Blu-ray and the standard-def DVD.

"Most analysts are techno-geeks with plenty of money and not much time, while most Americans are not technically savvy, and they have plenty of time but not much money," said Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research. "The fact is, despite what many on Wall Street seem to think, there is very little digital downloading going on. We're talking about $118 million in 2007 spending, and about $254 million this year -- so against a $24 billion packaged media market (Blu-ray and standard-def DVD) it's really not making much of a dent at this point."

The Hollywood Reporter writes that unit sales of Blu-ray discs were up 340 percent in the first half of 2008, with the number of discs sold around 7.4 million.

I Am Legend is the leading high-def disc seller with 305,000 unit sales, followed by National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets with 145,000.


Swanni's Commentary:

Tom Adams could not be more right. From DVRs to the Apple TV to Interactive TV to now Blu-ray, Wall Street analysts have been dead wrong on predicting the future of nearly every new TV technology.

They have said millions of people would buy products from their TV screens using Interactive TV remote controls; they have said people would stop watching ads because of the DVR (they also said TiVo would conquer the world); they have said the Apple TV would become a cultural phenomenon; and now they are saying that digital downloads will take over the living room.

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

Financial analysts, many of which are based in New York and have incomes that far exceed the average person, do not understand the average home viewer; they see the industry through their eyes only, and therefore, too often hype new tech products as the next big thing.

Why? Because they think the products are "cool."

But digital downloads is their latest mistake with the analysts saying millions of home viewers will soon connect their TVs to Net-capable devices.

However, the analysts forget two things: most Americans are not tech-savvy and are confused by Internet TV devices. And two, it takes too damn long to download a high-def movie over the Net.

It will still be a few years before Blu-ray becomes a mass audience product. But it will be years and years and years before digital downloads are ready for primetime.

All I can say is that any investor who listens to a Wall Street analyst on TV technology issues should have his head examined because you're guaranteed to lose your money.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu071408.htm

Home video biz holding up
DVD, Blu-ray sales strong despite down economy

By Thomas K. Arnold

July 13, 2008, 05:44 PM ET

Data from DVD and Blu-ray Disc sales and rentals shows the home video business is holding up well despite the down economy, the high price of gas and any consumer shift toward the Internet.

Consumer spending on DVDs and Blu-ray in the first six months of the year, purchases and rentals combined, was up 1.6% from spending in first-half 2007, according to Home Media Magazine's market research department. The first-half 2008 tally: $10.77 billion, compared with $10.6 billion a year ago.

Spending on disc purchases rose 1.1%, from $6.8 billion to $6.87 billion. Rental spending rose 2.6% from $3.8 billion in the first six months of last year to $3.9 billion, according to Home Media Magazine market research calculations.

Unit sales were up a healthy 1.1% as well, with consumers buying an estimated 412.3 million discs in the first six months of the year, up from 407.9 million discs in first-half 2007, according to studio reports.

Home entertainment industry analyst Tom Adams isn't surprised about the continued health of the packaged media business, despite Wall Street's negative perceptions.

"Most analysts are techno-geeks with plenty of money and not much time, while most Americans are not technically savvy, and they have plenty of time but not much money," said Adams, president of Adams Media Research. "The fact is, despite what many on Wall Street seem to think, there is very little digital downloading going on. We're talking about $118 million in 2007 spending, and about $254 million this year -- so against a $24 billion packaged media market it's really not making much of a dent at this point."

Blu-ray sales alone should amount to at least three times what digital downloading is expected to bring in this year. In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $194 million on Blu-ray purchases, according to studio estimates -- a gain of nearly 350% from the $43 million that came from HD disc sales in the first six months of 2007, when growth was stymied by a format war between Blu-ray and rival HD DVD.

Unit sales of Blu-ray Discs in first-half 2008 were up 340% from the first six months of 2007, according to Nielsen VideoScan data. Nielsen numbers are based on point-of-sale data from most big retail chains with the notable exception of Wal-Mart and Sam's Club. Factoring in Blu-ray Disc sales at those two retail chains, studio estimates peg the number of Blu-ray Discs sold in the first six months of this year at 7.4 million units.

Adams said he expects the packaged media business to be more resilient than other businesses during the tough economic times the country is facing. He notes that in the early 1990s, the last time the country faced a recession, the video-rental business held its own. Today, the home entertainment business relies mostly on sales rather than rentals, he said, "so the question is will the $15 movie be as recession-proof as the $3 rental was in the last serious recession -- and why wouldn't it be? When you're cutting back on luxury items like trips to Hawaii and Europe, and lots of other stuff that has to get cut because of the high price of gas, buying a $15 movie to watch over and over again and add to your collection seems to be a great alternative to more expensive ways to entertain."

The year's top-selling DVD was 20th Century Fox's "Alvin and the Chipmunks," which sold about 5.3 million units, according to Home Media Magazine market research estimates. Disney's "Enchanted" was second, with an estimated 4.8 million units, followed by Warner's "I Am Legend" at No. 3 (4.2 million units), Paramount's "Bee Movie" at No. 4 (3.9 million units) and Disney's "National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets" at No. 5 (3.8 million units). These figures do not include sales to rental dealers, which can boost total unit sales significantly; all in, "Alvin" has sold more than 7 million DVDs.

The top five renters: Lionsgate's "3:10 to Yuma" at No. 1, followed by "I Am Legend" at No. 2, Paramount's "No Country for Old Men" at No. 3, Universal Studios' "American Gangster" at No. 4 and Lionsgate's "Good Luck Chuck" at No. 5.

"I Am Legend" is the top-selling high-definition disc release of the year, with unit sales of 305,000. Next comes "National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets," with unit sales of nearly 145,000, followed by "No Country for Old Men" (137,000 units), No. 3; Warner's Blu-ray Disc release of "300" (133,100), No. 4; and "3:10 to Yuma" (115,000), No. 5.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...98128170626f30

Pro-B