Playstation 3 - delayed a year?

[Easy]

Can this be good for Blu-Ray? From the digital bits:

There's some interesting Blu-ray Disc news today. On Friday, Wall Street brokerage firm Merrill Lynch issued a report suggesting that the launch of Sony's Blu-ray compatible PlayStation 3 console could be delayed as much as a year from the company's initially anticipated Spring 2006 target date. We'd been hearing that the launch might be pushed back to November, but this could mean Spring 2007. What's worse, some cost estimates place the launch production cost of each PS3 unit as high as $900 ($230 for the Cell processor alone, along with another $350 for the Blu-ray Disc drive). That would mean a likely retail price for consumers at between $700-800. The news has set Sony's stock falling and actually impacted the entire Tokyo stock market on Monday. Sony has denied these reports, but has yet to announce official details on launch date and price. Ouch.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

[joshd2012]

Sony has already said that they are still planning on a Spring launch.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/690/690176p1.html

[Gil Jawetz]

And there's no way they would price it that high. Sony will take a massive loss on selling the units if it'll mean making Blu-Ray the dominant technology. It'll be a real battle for the long-term win.

[Fok]

I always wait a year or so before buying new consoles, usually the rerelease them after fixing problems and the price is then way better

[Qui Gon Jim]

The stock market doesn't usually react so strongly to unsubtantiable rumors. This news does back up rumors that have been going around for several months, both a delay and the high price.

There is only so much loss they can take on the hardware, and any loss taken has to be made up in the MSRP of the software. If XB360 is $300 cheaper and the games are signifigantly cheaper, then PS3 is a non-starter, and this will be a gigantic hole in the hull of the SS BluRay.

This news has enourmous ramifications if true.

[Qui Gon Jim]

Originally Posted by joshd2012

Sony has already said that they are still planning on a Spring launch.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/690/690176p1.html

Once again you leave out crucial information and spin this in a pro-Sony way. The sub headline is "Sony claims no PS3 launch change, but admits possible delay."

While they say they still plan on a spring launch, they admit there could be delays. They are in total damage control mode now. They don't even have hardware finalized, and Spring is about a month away. How do they plan on manufacturing and shipping in a month's time?

I doubt we'll see this in 2006.

[awmurray]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

The stock market doesn't usually react so strongly to unsubtantiable rumors.

...

This news has enourmous ramifications if true.

This is what I was thinking.

Meanwhile Toshiba is running around with the HD-DVD roadshow. The first to market advantage is aways a big one. BR had better shit or get off the pot.

[kaikara]

There is no way they are going to have the PS3 out even in Japan by Spring. They don't even have working demo units yet let alone the hold up with the standards for Blue Ray. They will be lucky to get this out in the summer and that would be Japan only. North America will see it earliest in the fall and more likely for the holiday season. If they miss that they will be in big trouble.

[Kumar J]

Launch in Spring in Japan?To date I have not even seen any promo's and even the stores are clueless on the release.Delayed for sure.Maybe End of this year.But Japan gets it first

[speedyray]

Yeah, to agree with others, Merrill Lynch does not just pull that out of their ass. They have some sort of credible research that led to that report. And yes, I see this as a major blow to camp BD - which I have said is way more vulnerable than most think. I still think BD has the potential to be better, but Toshiba is loving this development. Oh, and while we are on the topic of who is loving it - Microsoft has to be thrilled - they could be sitting pretty if Sony has trouble all the way up till Christmas.

[joshd2012]

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

The stock market doesn't usually react so strongly to unsubtantiable rumors.

But they sure did rally back only a few days later. So I guess that means stockholders realized the information was unfound?

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

Once again you leave out crucial information and spin this in a pro-Sony way. The sub headline is "Sony claims no PS3 launch change, but admits possible delay.

If Japan blows up today, there will be a delay. If Sony gets sold to China, there will be a delay. There is always a possibility for a delay due to uncontrollable circumstances. But like I said, and the article said, they are still planning for a Spring launch. Nothing has changed.

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim

I doubt we'll see this in 2006.

Care to put money on that?

Look, this is already being discussed in the Videogame Forum, so there is no reason to discuss unfound rumors in this forum as well. The fact is Merrill Lynch knows about as much as we do. They did indeed pull this out of their ass - infact, their estimates have increased $200 since last June. Nothing has changed in terms of the specs, yet the price got hiked. Just sit back and wait for an official announcement - there is no need to get so worked up about rumors.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by speedyray

Yeah, to agree with others, Merrill Lynch does not just pull that out of their ass. They have some sort of credible research that led to that report.

The soundness of the Merrill Lynch report has been widely questioned.

Just read this article: Analyzing the Analysts: Merrill Lynch's Flawed Methodology

[gimmepilotwings]

But like I said, and the article said, they are still planning for a Spring launch. Nothing has changed

josh, do you think that Sony will have the ability to finish its hardware specs, test, manufacture, and sell the PS3 3 months from now, (and that is waiting until the end of spring)? I highly doubt it.

I can see a Oct/Nov release to try and be out before the Revolution comes out, but not anytime sooner than October.

[joshd2012]

Originally Posted by gimmepilotwings

josh, do you think that Sony will have the ability to finish its hardware specs, test, manufacture, and sell the PS3 3 months from now, (and that is waiting until the end of spring)? I highly doubt it.

I can see a Oct/Nov release to try and be out before the Revolution comes out, but not anytime sooner than October.

I don't believe that hardware specs aren't finished - especially since Sony announced that final SDK were sent early January. I do believe that they are waiting on AACS to finalize, which should happen soon. Maybe even the next version of HDMI, but that isn't necessary anyway and can be upgraded via firmware.

[speedyray]

Originally Posted by Grubert

The soundness of the Merrill Lynch report has been widely questioned.

Just read this article: Analyzing the Analysts: Merrill Lynch's Flawed Methodology

Your link is to a Playstation news site. No offense, but I thought reading your post I was going to a see and article where other business leaders question the report, not a bunch of fanboys. When your managing a funds worth billions, you try to get your research (key word not just internet guessing) right - this guy saying they have no idea about Sony's cost to produce components, etc. is probably dead wrong. I am sure they know a great deal more about it than he does. I am not saying that in general either person is correct, cause lynch may be dead wrong, but I will trust them over some fansite for sure.

[Spiky]

Originally Posted by joshd2012

I don't believe that hardware specs aren't finished - especially since Sony announced that final SDK were sent early January. I do believe that they are waiting on AACS to finalize, which should happen soon. Maybe even the next version of HDMI, but that isn't necessary anyway and can be upgraded via firmware.

So Sony is so wonderful that even when THEY say something about a delay, it can't be true? Isn't that a catch 22 that blows up your worshipping mind?

I have to say though, the stock market will certainly jump up and down on rumors. The fluctuations are hardly verification of anything. A steady trend would suggest something, but I doubt the PS3 is enough of Sony's bottom line to get any serious trend going in the stock price.

As for ML, I would hazard a guess that their pricing comments are pure speculation. But the delay is something with some obvious backing as Sony admits the possibility. And since mfgring should have started already, that's as good an indicator as you'll ever get.

And who says Revolution will be out on time?

This thread has so much empty speculation. (and I just added more) It's nice to have something to print in the news, but when it comes down to it we're just going to have to wait and see.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by speedyray

Your link is to a Playstation news site. No offense, but I thought reading your post I was going to a see and article where other business leaders question the report, not a bunch of fanboys. When your managing a funds worth billions, you try to get your research (key word not just internet guessing) right - this guy saying they have no idea about Sony's cost to produce components, etc. is probably dead wrong. I am sure they know a great deal more about it than he does. I am not saying that in general either person is correct, cause lynch may be dead wrong, but I will trust them over some fansite for sure.

Have you even read the article? It poses very valid reservations as to the sloppy writing in the report, the lack of technical knowledge the author shows in some of his points, and the foundation for some of the cost calculations. I may not have an MBA, but at least I know some arithmetic. And if Samsung is wiling to retail a Blu-ray burner for $500, there's no way Sony is going to have to pay $350 for a Blu-ray player.

[Spiky]

Your lack of an MBA is probably WHY you can do some arithmetic.

Unfortunately, many such reports (ML's) are an embarassment to grammar school. Another thing that hardly proves anything. And these are financial analysts, not technicians. They never have a good technical background for giving out details on mfgring process or whatever. FWIW, I agree that ML's article is suspect at best. But the fact it is suspect doesn't in any way suggest that the PS3 will be in your house come June. I mean, really.

The fanboys in their article go on ranting about IBM's mfgring process and the PS2. What does IBM have to do with Sony? I believe the issue with the process is that it is new to Sony, not the planet. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the PS2 was very expensive to build at first and sold below cost, and was delayed from original expectations, also. How is that a valid example to prove that neither of those will be true for the PS3?

I do respect their position, esp due to this paragraph. (below) But this is the norm with financial analysts, y'all just have to accept that. PSINext is just lashing out because they're frustrated since they don't know when it is coming out.

This is not to say of course that I have numbers to put forth in place of these... but I think in the end that in itself is the point. I don't know the numbers, so I'm not writing about them. Merrill also doesn't know the numbers, uses flawed methodologies and logic to reach numbers, and then publishes analyst reports based on those numbers.

Speculation. Speculation. Speculation. We can argue about the news, but that doesn't change the fact that none of us knows anything substantial.

[joshd2012]

Originally Posted by Spiky

So Sony is so wonderful that even when THEY say something about a delay, it can't be true? Isn't that a catch 22 that blows up your worshipping mind?

My "worshipping mind", eh? If that is true, then what kind of person does it take to alter news to fulfill some predesposed notion that Sony is evil? From the article:

Originally Posted by IGN

However, it has also admitted that some areas of the system's specifications have yet to be finalized, and if finalization is delayed, the system's launch could be pushed back.

Nowhere does it say "hardware". By definition a "system" is more than just "hardware". So like I said, I do believe the hardware is done, which is direct response to your question about how Sony was going to finalize the hardware in the next 3 months.

So before you go around making accusations, I suggest you actually read what you are writing, before making a complete ass of yourself.

Originally Posted by Spiky

This thread has so much empty speculation. (and I just added more) It's nice to have something to print in the news, but when it comes down to it we're just going to have to wait and see.

That, I can agree with.

[Spiky]

I gotta say, I can't believe Sony responded to this report in the first place. These companies never say anything until it's meaningful press release time. Very unusual.

[Spiky]

Originally Posted by joshd2012

My "worshipping mind", eh? If that is true, then what kind of person does it take to alter news to fulfill some predesposed notion that Sony is evil? From the article:

We are talking about a delay. Not the evilness of Sony. I don't generally like their products, but I don't think they are evil. Now, Microsoft.....

FWIW, I like the PS series. I am in love with their latest Vaio notebooks and will be begging for one (or a MacBook) at work this year.

Originally Posted by joshd2012

Nowhere does it say "hardware". By definition a "system" is more than just "hardware". So like I said, I do believe the hardware is done, which is direct response to your question about how Sony was going to finalize the hardware in the next 3 months.

Huh? I said nothing about hardware separate from software. You are denying the possibility of a delay, even though Sony is saying it is possible. A delay is a delay. No gamer give two shakes for whether it is firmware, game software, or the hardware.

Originally Posted by joshd2012

So before you go around making accusations, I suggest you actually read what you are writing, before making a complete ass of yourself.

I don't even know what you are talking about. Perhaps you are the one needing this advice?

[joshd2012]

Spiky, let me condense what the converstation was, so that you can follow. Because you obviously must be feeling a little A.D.D. today.

Originally Posted by gimmepilotwings

josh, do you think that Sony will have the ability to finish its hardware specs, test, manufacture, and sell the PS3 3 months from now, (and that is waiting until the end of spring)? I highly doubt it.

Originally Posted by joshd2012

I don't believe that hardware specs aren't finished - especially since Sony announced that final SDK were sent early January. I do believe that they are waiting on AACS to finalize, which should happen soon. Maybe even the next version of HDMI, but that isn't necessary anyway and can be upgraded via firmware.

Originally Posted by Spiky

So Sony is so wonderful that even when THEY say something about a delay, it can't be true? Isn't that a catch 22 that blows up your worshipping mind?

Originally Posted by joshd2012

Nowhere does it say "hardware". By definition a "system" is more than just "hardware". So like I said, I do believe the hardware is done, which is direct response to your question about how Sony was going to finalize the hardware in the next 3 months.

Huh? I said nothing about hardware separate from software. You are denying the possibility of a delay, even though Sony is saying it is possible. A delay is a delay. No gamer give two shakes for whether it is firmware, game software, or the hardware.

So as you can now see, I never said there couldn't be a delay, just that it wouldn't be because of hardware, as gimmepilotwings suggested. Do you follow now?

[Adam Tyner]

Not surprisingly, another thread marred by evangelism. This got old a long, long time ago, and it's annoying to see the same people do the same thing over and over again. Keep the PS3 discussion in the video game forum for now.