Josh H

I agree. It will have about the selection of these titles as Laserdisc. I was just saying it probably won't get to the level that DVD has, which is tons more than laserdisc ever had.

As for why, again most people on this site and others have said they'll only upgrade a select few discs. Thus one has to assume that joe six pack will be even less likely than the hardcore people here.

Adam Tyner

I don't buy into that logic prohibiting virtually anything but blockbusters/new releases coming to the format, though. I'd think it'd be the exact opposite -- the sort of people eager to invest in this sort of technology is probably more willing to seek out movies other than the $100 million summer blockbusters, and HD-DVD/Blu-Ray will cater to those needs the same way Laserdisc did.

Also, not everyone already has every movie they want on DVD.

Josh H

I didn't say that. I just said we'll definitely see all the blockblusters and new releases.

I just doubt for the more obscure titles that we'll ever get the broad selection we have on dvd as Joe Six Pack didn't buy these on DVD, the movie buffs did, and a lot of the people that did aren't going to upgrade their DVDs

And again the film selection on lasersdisc was no where in the ballpark of the titles available on DVD. I already agreed that hd would be similar to laserdisc, just not as broad as DVD.

And as for catering to these folk. That's not really true, those folk are the ones that will always by the best format, they don't need catered too. Why do you think the vast bulk of titiles already announced are blockbusters? They need to get the less enthusiastic people and joe six packs on board as they will make or break the format.

Most of the hardcore folk (barring the few oddballs trying to build libraries in the 1,000s) have most of them, and gauging from net posts aren't planning on upgrading the bulk of their collections.

Also, most joe six packs don't even have a list of movies they want. They aren't trying to build a library, they just buy the lastest movie the saw (or want to see) when they see it on sale.

I just don't think there will be the same level of demand for non-hit catalog titles as their was when DVD took off.

Adam Tyner

You're misunderstanding what I'm saying. Okay, here's an analogy: boutique stores tend to be in neighborhoods where people make a decent amount of money and are predisposed to an interest in more than what they can get at Target. They enjoy a small but loyal clientele who are willing to pay a premium for quality. I see HD-DVD/Blu-Ray as working the same way. The people who buy these players are likely to have a lot of disposable income and a great interest in a wide variety of film. You'll have a lot of people who shop at the big box stores (the summer blockbusters), sure, but there's still a healthy market for lesser known titles (arthouse, cult, etc.). The smaller labels haven't announced support yet because they have no political reason to lean behind a particular format the way the larger studios do. It'll come, and so will the lesser known titles.

To have as 'sexy' a list of launch titles as possible? That doesn't refute anything I'm arguing.

I don't think the former is a reasonable extrapolation. It certainly doesn't apply to me, at least. I have around a thousand titles in my collection, but there are many, many hundreds more I wish I owned instead.

I agree, except I see this as supporting my argument rather than refuting it. If someone missed a movie the first time around on DVD, they'll probably never buy it at all on that format. A release on HD-DVD/Blu-Ray will cause it to pop up again in circulars and new release lists, and that'll lead to more sales.

I'm looking forward to these things actually coming out so we can talk about something tactile and ease up on the speculation.

Josh H

I'm not misunderstanding you. The boutique situation is very much like laserdisc. If HD DVD is mainly sold in the boutique stores, then it will be a niche market item and definitely won't get the back catalog support that dvd has gotten. Most studios aren't going to put out films if they'll only sell to a niche market in these boutique stores, even less so if they factor in that many people bought their obscure films on DVD and aren't interested in upgrading.

Then you fall in the list of the oddballs with collections in the 1,000s. For the others, I was thinking more of the people with a few hundred who have most of the catalog titles they want. i.e. the people in between you guys and joe six pack in buying habits.


My point is that if the title was obscure and especially if didn't sell great on DVD, the studios will have even less reason to put it out on DVD. They will expect it to sell even less as the most of the people who passed on it will pass again and a lot of people that bought it on dvd already will just stick with the DVD and not upgrade.

Adam Tyner

I meant the boutique store as an analogy, not suggesting that that's where software will be primarily sold. My guess is that many retailers will stock HD-DVD/Blu-Ray software -- it'll just be a limited selection in a smaller area like UMDs unless/until they take off.

A small store can thrive with high margins, appealing content, and loyal patronage. By the same token, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray discs may enjoy those same advantages. I don't think an average DVD consumer is necessarily interchangable with an average HD-DVD/Blu-Ray consumer; early adopters are more likely to be spending a lot of money on software and, I'd imagine, are proportionally more likely to buy lesser known titles.

Another advantage is that with a smaller amount of software available initially, lesser-known titles stand out more. They aren't competing against as many titles, so they're on stronger footing if they're one of 90 available titles than one of 55,000.

Re-releases of catalog titles can also draw attention to films that more recent entrants into DVD might have missed on that format. I know I'm one of those people where if I don't buy a DVD the week it comes out, I'll probably never buy it; Blu-Ray and HD-DVD give me a chance to start with a clean slate, and I'm excited about that.

Also, although these titles will need to be encoded, manufactured, and distributed, there are already HD transfers for a mind-bogglingly large number of movies, extras have already been been compiled for many of those, etc....that ought to make the risk of releasing on HD-DVD/Blu-Ray at least a little less daunting.

Synapse Films has The Image (an extremely uncommercial title) and Lemora: A Child's Tale of the Supernatural listed on their website as their first HD-DVD releases (although I'd imagine they're using "HD-DVD" in the generic sense, not necessarily meaning that specific format), so at least one of the smaller companies that specializes in cult films is thinking about it. I think you'll also see a lot of day-and-date releases of newly-released or re-released catalog/obscurities on HD-DVD and Blu-Ray when they hit DVD.

I agree that it'll probably be a while, if ever, until HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has as deep a catalog of titles as DVD, but then again, I remember saying the same thing close to ten years ago when DVD was on the horizon against Laserdiscs, so who knows?

Josh H

True. I just think the studios aren't going to bother with lesser known titles as they want the eye candy titles that will get joe six pack to buy into the format. Not the titles that will only sell to early adopters who already bought in.

I don't think they'll start with many lesser known titles until the format is really catching up to DVD and they think they'll be able to sell a lot of them. And even then I don't think we'll see as many as we have on DVD due to my previous argument that they won't sell as well since so many fans already own them on DVD and won't upgrade.



Things have never worked that way. Early titles ignore the film buff early adopter and are aiming to get joe six pack mainstram consumer to buy into the format.

You're totally right logically, but studios want to wait until theres a huge installed base before putting out niche titles to try to maximize sales by assuming more of that niche has players at that point. They've never been smart enough to figure out that the early adopters are probably more into those films and will be more likely to buy them when there's not much to choose from as you suggest.

Adam Tyner

There's more to the spectrum than the same five or six corporations.

Criterion started releasing titles a little over a year after DVD launched. Smaller companies like Simitar, Image, and Elite had announced their first DVDs before there were even players in most parts of the country. I'd expect the smaller studios to swoop into HD-DVD/Blu-Ray in much the same way, although the competing formats might cause some to sit on the sidelines for longer than they ordinarily might.

Josh H

Oh, I agree there will be titles for Criterion etc.

Again I never said there wouldnt' be any. Just that I expect it to be more like Laserdisc than the amazingly deep selection available on DVD.

Qui Gon Jim

But as Adam said, there are so many films ready to go for HD/BR, they just need to be manufactured. I won't say that they will be deep as DVD right away, or ever for that matter, but the mix of title will be for all tastes. If there is a buck to be made, someone will make that buck.

Cartload

The way I see it, VHS to DVD is like me getting up in the morning and putting on glasses. Everything goes from a blurry mess to clear vision.

DVD to HD is like getting that new prescription. Everything looks crisper and more defined when you first wear that new pair of glasses.

Josh H

That's all I'm saying.

I also feel a lot of catalog titles that are on DVD won't get any special treatment on HD. They'll just be pushing them to the people who want an HD transfer. So I doubt they'll bother with new extras. Just repackage the old ones (in HD or not) or release them barebones.

The exception being the titles that have barebones DVD releases they might do a new SE of, but I don't see it happening much for non-blockbuster titles that had commentaries and documentaries before on DVD.

BeanDip0001

1080p with an HD source is something that needs to been seen to be understood. probably the way people felt when the change from b&w to color tvs took place. i mean it is like you're actually "looking out the car window" just think of what things will be like in 20 years.