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View Full Version : The Memorial Day 2012 Weekend Box Office Extravaganza Thread (5/25 - 5/28)


Matthew Chmiel
05-25-12, 03:08 PM
I've been sitting in front of a computer trying to think of a witty title for this weekend's thread. Fuck it, it's Memorial Day. How many of us are going to be at a computer once we get off work today?

http://i.imgur.com/sWpd3.jpg

'MERICA.

This will be the first weekend in a month that Marvel’s The Avengers has not dominated North American box office as #1. Instead, Sony Pictures’ Men in Black 3 is anticipated to top today at a giant release in 4,248 runs for the start of Memorial Weekend as Will Smith returns to the cineplex after a long hiatus. This is his first major starring role in four years, and what could have been a tired franchise was freshened by a time travel plot and Josh Brolin. The studio just announced the scifi comedy made $1.5M for its first midnight showings in 2,233 locations calling it “Good. Expect a big day today, and kids to drive a huge Saturday-Sunday-Monday.” Hollywood believes the popular laugher can scare up as much as $80M-$90M domestic and north of $200M worldwide for the four-day holiday. Meanwhile Alcon Entertainment’s horror genre acquisition Chernobyl Diaries distributed domestically by Warner Bros posted a larger than expected midnight opening with $525K from 1,325 locations. “This result is at the very high end of all horror comps,” an exec emailed me. ”Stay tuned… It could beat tracking for the weekend.” Immediately Hollywood began revising up its $15M estimates for the film whose theater count is 2,433 this weekend.

islandclaws
05-25-12, 03:37 PM
Me, since I work tomorrow. Then it's a 4-day Sun-Wed weekend. Woop. Woop.

No doubt MIB 3 will be tops, but I think Avengers will still have a solid #.

Even though Chernobyl Diaries looked lame, horror fans are desperate right now, so I can see this having a decent opening. With horror on the backburner for most studios at the moment, the few publicized titles that are getting out there seem to do well thanks to the drought. Then, studios will see this, demand more horror, and we'll have a glut of crap again with a few gems in the mix.

Shannon Nutt
05-25-12, 03:38 PM
Me, since I have no life and no prospects.

bluetoast
05-25-12, 04:26 PM
Me, since I have to finish up work for my classes. Really hope to be free by tomorrow night.

Hokeyboy
05-25-12, 04:29 PM
I will be here most of the weekend. (http://www.spookyempire.com/) Then at karaoke and the beach Sunday night through Monday. In my mind, I'm already gone...

fumanstan
05-25-12, 05:10 PM
Me, since i'll be playing Diablo :p

Matthew Chmiel
05-26-12, 02:27 AM
FRIDAY*10 PM UPDATE: A*lot is riding on this weekend’s totals for Will Smith (back at cineplexes after a 4-year hiatus) and Sony Pictures (reviving a*long dormant*franchise). So I can’t ignore when rival studios*claim that*Sony’s new #1 Memorial Weekend movie*Men in Black 3 is not looking quite as strong as*Hollywood thought domestically or internationally. At first this just seemed to be*sour grapes.*But now it’s clear that the scifi laugher looks to open in the range of $18M-$20M today and*only $65M to $75M for the 4-day North American holiday.*That’s not anywhere close to the $90M which Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open*its threequel. Even overseas, depending on who’s analyzing, MIB3 is a mixed bag. My Sony sources are quick to point out that it opened bigger in Russia than The Avengers. But rival studios tell me that “despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.” Those are*two comps which no studio wants to hear in the same sentence with its summer blockbuster.*The reason this is a problem is that MIB3 was very expensive to make.*The time travel elements of Etan Cohen’s*script had to be*re-worked by Jeff Nathanson who needed more time to pull off the tricky plot device.*So the film*shut down for*about six weeks, which is a rarity*for a major tentpole.*That caused the cost to skyrocket from a range of $225M (which is what Sony claims as the budget) to $300M (which is what rival studios say it really was). Between that and all the gross profit participants, every dollar counts.

Overseas, Sony claimed “some fantastic new openings around the world, led by Russia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Highlights: Russia was*”a sensational, dominant #1 opening grossing $3.5M, accounting for 85% of the box office. This is bigger than the opening day of Avengers and is Sony’s biggest opening day of all time.”*In line with Russia’s opening, Ukraine scored a big $314K and headed to finish with 3 times the opening weekend box office of Mission: Impossible 4. United Arab Emirates took in $427K, tracking 50% above*Will Smith’s Hancock. Latin America also*tracked ahead of M:I4’s opening weekend with*the big markets of Brazil and Mexico*opening tonight.*Yesterday Argentina took in $217K,*Peru $134K, and*Chile $62K. In Asia, Sony had*strong openings in Malaysia $369K, Hong Kong $341K, and Singapore $290K which should*end up above M:I4 as well as Pirates 4 come Sunday.

Tonight Sony doesn’t sound worried. “All around the world, the feeling is there is a big family audience which will be coming out over the weekend. While Western Europe continues to work to overcome some beautiful weather, we have the benefit of a holiday on Monday in various markets which should help boost our Sunday results there.” As for North America,*”Give us sometime to breathe here and wait for the kids to come out. Today will be good but Sat-Sun-Mon great.”

Holdover Marvel’s The Avengers is a solid #2 with about $9.5M today and $45M this 4-day weekend as the Disney movie’s foreign gross hits $752M foreign and $478M domestic coming into this weekend for a global cume of $1.2B. Universal’s Battleship is still moving slow, now sinking 65% from a week ago with only $2.8M today and $13.5M for the 4-day holiday.*High hopes for Dark Castle’s Chernobyl Diaries*deflated today to $3M*for Joel Silver’s*production company distributed by Warner Bros, and should open this weekend with*$11M.*That’s also about what Paramount’s disappointing holdover The Dictator*should total. Finally, Warner Bros’ loser Dark Shadows may only muster $2.1M today and $9.5M.

Wow. $300 million production budget? For a 106-minute film? Christ, Battleship's $210 million budget looks pitiful right now.

fitprod
05-26-12, 04:25 AM
Wow. $300 million production budget? For a 106-minute film? Christ, Battleship's $210 million budget looks pitiful right now.

That's OK, Sony's not that worried... After Universal compounds their horrible summer with Snow White and the Huntsman, everyone will be on Universal executive death watch.

fitprod

Tom Creo
05-26-12, 08:05 AM
Prediction: Sony will start to worry once the TASM numbers come in.

Solid Snake
05-26-12, 08:39 AM
Go, Marvel.

Mr. Cinema
05-26-12, 09:42 AM
None of the sites I read were predicting $90 million for the 4-day total for MIB 3. All were guessing $70-$80 million, which is exactly where it is going to end up.

Defiant1
05-26-12, 03:43 PM
A month into the summer movie season and we have only ONE bonafide hit and three big and expensive misfires (Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MiB3). Not looking good so far, Hollywood!

Mr. Cinema
05-26-12, 03:45 PM
Prediction: Sony will start to worry once the TASM numbers come in.
Prediction: Sony will be thrilled once the TASM numbers come in.

Mr. Cinema
05-26-12, 03:48 PM
A month into the summer movie season and we have only ONE bonafide hit and three big and expensive misfires (Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MiB3). Not looking good so far, Hollywood!
Next weekend probably won't help much and looking ahead, the rest of June looks weak. Prometheus however could provide a nice bump.

However, Spider-man and Batman will come to the rescue in July.

stingermck
05-26-12, 04:44 PM
Friday:

1 mib 3 $18,000,000
2 marvel's the avengers $9,684,000
3 chernobyl diaries $3,540,000
4 battleship $3,000,000
5 the dictator $2,780,000

musick
05-26-12, 05:03 PM
Moonrise Kingdom will be HUGE (well at least in 4 theaters it will be) ;)

Matthew Chmiel
05-26-12, 05:05 PM
Moonrise Kingdom will be HUGE (well at least in 4 theaters it will be) ;)
Hipsters. Hipsters everywhere.

Full numbers for the top ten on Friday, plus estimates for the entire weekend:

1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, 4-Day Weekend $75M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, 4-Day Weekend $45M, Cume $523.5M

3. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, 4-Day Weekend $11.5M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), 4-Day Weekend $13.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), 4-Day Weekend $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

6. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $24.0M

6. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, 4-Day Weekend $9.5M, Cume $65.0M

8. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [1,233
Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.5M, 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $17.9M

9. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 10 [1,421 Theaters] PG13
Friday $565K, 4-Day Weekend $2.7M, Cume $395.7M

10. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 6 [786 Theaters] PG13
Friday $390K, 4-Day Weekend $2.0M, Cume $88.9M

BOM is reporting TWC's The Intouchables doing $28k in four locations (and a PSA of $7.2k). Surprising TWC is already reporting their numbers, but Focus isn't for Moonrise Kingdom.

musick
05-26-12, 05:09 PM
Hipsters. Hipsters everywhere.


what is this "hipsters" thing you speak of? people that like quality filmmaking?

RichC2
05-26-12, 05:55 PM
Rushmore pre-dates the Hipster movement, so I don't buy that.

Hokeyboy
05-27-12, 01:02 AM
"Hipster" seems to mean "Something I don't get and I'm really upset that other people do..."

Battleship is the anti-hipster movie..l

Matthew Chmiel
05-27-12, 03:23 AM
Rushmore pre-dates the Hipster movement, so I don't buy that.
Actually, the hipster movement is traced back to late-90s Williamsburg. So Rushmore was released right when the birth of the movement was occurring. Honestly, the pinnacle of the movement wasn't until mid-2000s.

Anyway, Deadline just mentioned Sony is reporting a $19.6 million Saturday for MIB3 which is pathetic considering the original film pulled in more ($20.2 million) on its first Saturday. Fifteen years ago. When the average cost of a movie ticket was five dollars and there was no 3D surcharge. Sony is now looking at $70 million by time Monday's business ends.

The Avengers, like always, is over-performing and is now expecting a $48.5 million four-day weekend gross. I can honestly see it squeaking right to $50 million as long if the Saturday-to-Sunday drop is nearly non-existent.

1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, Saturday $19.6M
3-Day Weekend $56M, 4-Day Holiday $70M

2. Marvel’s The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.7M, Saturda $14.6M
3-Day Weekend $38M, 4-Day Holiday $48.5M, Cume $525.2M

3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.0M (-65%), Saturday $4.0M
3-Day Weekend $10.7M, 4-Day Holiday $13.3M, Cume $46.8M

4. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.7M (-51%), Saturday $3.3M
3-Day Weekend $9.2M, 4-Day Holiday $11.5M, Cume $43.3M

5. Dark Shadows 3D (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.0M, Saturday $2.7M
3-Day Weekend $7.4M, 4-Day Holiday $9.4M, Cume $64.9M

6. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, Saturday $2.3M
3-Day Weekend $7.9M, 4-Day Holiday $9.2M

7. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.2M (-42%), Saturday $2.6M
3-Day Weekend $7.0M, 4-Day Holiday $8.7M, Cume $23.7M

:lol: to Chernobyl Diaries Friday-to-Saturday drop.

The Bus
05-27-12, 08:34 AM
Re: Men in Black 3

But rival studios tell me that “despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.”

RichC2
05-27-12, 08:43 AM
Actually, the hipster movement is traced back to late-90s Williamsburg. So Rushmore was released right when the birth of the movement was occurring. Honestly, the pinnacle of the movement wasn't until mid-2000s.

Anyway, Deadline just mentioned Sony is reporting a $19.6 million Saturday for MIB3 which is pathetic considering the original film pulled in more ($20.2 million) on its first Saturday. Fifteen years ago. When the average cost of a movie ticket was five dollars and there was no 3D surcharge. Sony is now looking at $70 million by time Monday's business ends.

The Avengers, like always, is over-performing and is now expecting a $48.5 million four-day weekend gross. I can honestly see it squeaking right to $50 million as long if the Saturday-to-Sunday drop is nearly non-existent.



:lol: to Chernobyl Diaries Friday-to-Saturday drop.

Yeah, I have family in the area, familiar with it.

Friday-to-Saturday drops are pretty normal with R-rated horror movies, Chernobyl is no different, but for once it goes along with an exceptionally poor audience rating. MIB 3 is doing pretty solid business for a 10 year sequel to a horrible movie, Avengers is making a killing. Men in Black 1 opened on 4th of July weekend in '97, in a pre-"bombard you every week with a new special effects extravaganza!!!" market (that year, 15 movies broke $100m, 3 broke $200m) while Will Smith was a rising star. Definitely had a lot more going for it.

Unfortunately for Contact is decided to come out the weekend after MIB, which seems odd. Nothing about that one really shouted "Summer movie" though it was a quality flick.

Mr. Cinema
05-27-12, 11:33 AM
MIB 3 basically followed the "Batman and Robin" of the series. I think the numbers are okay. It may hold up pretty well considering June is a rather lean month.

Rypro 525
05-27-12, 11:47 AM
The Avengers will make more in the 4 day weekend then Battleship has made in 2 weeks

Defiant1
05-27-12, 02:15 PM
Battleship just sunk. It could end up with a lower domestic gross than John Carter. I guess there won't be a Hungry Hungry Hippos movie now.

B5Erik
05-27-12, 09:42 PM
I went to the first showing of MIB3 this morning in the same theater I saw The Avengers in 3 weeks ago. (Same auditorium/screen.) Where the showing of the Avengers was about 95% sold, the showing today of MIB3 was maybe 25% full.

That's too bad, because MIB3 is actually pretty darned good. It's fun.

Rypro 525
05-28-12, 12:41 AM
idiot question. I noticed Moonrise Kingdom did 509k in only 4 theaters with a per screen average of $127,250. How is that mathmatically possible or do the specialty theaters in LA and NY that showed it this weekend hold like 500 or 1000 people and every screening sold out

Matthew Chmiel
05-28-12, 03:22 AM
idiot question. I noticed Moonrise Kingdom did 509k in only 4 theaters with a per screen average of $127,250. How is that mathmatically possible or do the specialty theaters in LA and NY that showed it this weekend hold like 500 or 1000 people and every screening sold out
The four theaters its playing at are playing it on two screens (the Arclight in Hollywood actually has it on three screens).

127250 divided by 3 (days) divided by 13 (average ticket price) = 3263 people attended each theater per day.

The film is only 94 minutes long, so most theaters have at least ten showtimes a day. Except the Arclight. Today they have 21 showings of it available.

sharkstank
05-28-12, 11:09 AM
Looks like I had MIB3 pegged with my 60 million dollar weekend prediction, forgot about Memorial Day though. I plan on checking it out tomorrow, wonder if it will have legs.

I really am not sure how Snow White will do this week. Doesn't look great fro Piranha 3DD though. Wonder if Avengers will top 30 mil next weekend.

Shannon Nutt
05-28-12, 01:18 PM
Even though MIB 3 made $70 million since opening, that's got to be considered a mild disappointment for SONY, right? It seems to be doing well overseas, however.

Mondo Kane
05-28-12, 02:03 PM
It seems to be doing well overseas, however.

What's been going on with the big box-office business overseas lately? Are lap dances part of the viewing experience over there?

Solid Snake
05-28-12, 02:12 PM
Only in Japan, Spain, and Germany. Not sure about the others.

RichC2
05-28-12, 03:16 PM
It's more than just a lapdance in Japan.

Mr. Cinema
05-28-12, 03:22 PM
MIB3's worldwide gross is estimated at $202 million.

Artman
05-28-12, 05:18 PM
Even though MIB 3 made $70 million since opening, that's got to be considered a mild disappointment for SONY, right?

More than mild I'd say, but Sony will talk up the foreign grosses as that market has grown quite a bit since MI2. Like so many other films, it might make up for the low domestic turnout.

Shannon Nutt
05-28-12, 07:22 PM
What's been going on with the big box-office business overseas lately? Are lap dances part of the viewing experience over there?

Apparantly 3D is huge now overseas - far more than here in the States. One of the reasons Paramount decided to yank GI JOE to get it converted. Heck, even John Carter made over $200 million overseas.

Solid Snake
05-28-12, 07:25 PM
Yeah, but how much of JC's bank was 3D?

I loved JC but so saddened by it's bank.

Supermallet
05-28-12, 08:22 PM
I didn't love JC but it didn't deserve its box office fate.

keyed
05-28-12, 09:16 PM
Apparantly 3D is huge now overseas - far more than here in the States. One of the reasons Paramount decided to yank GI JOE to get it converted. Heck, even John Carter made over $200 million overseas.

I don't know about huge, but I know if it's not a big theater, you don't have a choice on which you're seeing. When I was in Colombia last month, I went to two different chains. Both theaters would have one screen for a movie, and the obvious choice for the theater is to screen the 3D version to make more money.

Dragon Tattoo
05-28-12, 09:39 PM
Apparantly 3D is huge now overseas - far more than here in the States.

Duh. That's what happens when you don't get a choice.

The US is one of the few countries where theaters even offer 2D options for 3D movies.

Matthew Chmiel
05-28-12, 10:51 PM
I really am not sure how Snow White will do this week. Doesn't look great fro Piranha 3DD though. Wonder if Avengers will top 30 mil next weekend.
TWC is only throwing Piranha 3DD in 75 theaters come Friday.

Burnt Thru
05-29-12, 03:05 AM
Duh. That's what happens when you don't get a choice.

The US is one of the few countries where theaters even offer 2D options for 3D movies.
Which countries do you think only offer up 3D movie screenings?

Supermallet
05-29-12, 03:38 AM
Fredonia.

The Valeyard
05-29-12, 03:59 AM
Anvilania.

Dragon Tattoo
05-29-12, 04:30 AM
Which countries do you think only offer up 3D movie screenings?

Japan for sure, along with China, Korea and most of Europe.

mostaccioli
05-29-12, 06:34 AM
What's been going on with the big box-office business overseas lately? Are lap dances part of the viewing experience over there?
i would think people would prefer the bootlegs over there.

Hokeyboy
05-29-12, 09:26 AM
Latveria.

sharkstank
05-29-12, 10:46 PM
TWC is only throwing Piranha 3DD in 75 theaters come Friday.

Wow, I didn't know that, thought it was still going to get a wide release

musick
05-30-12, 11:31 AM
idiot question. I noticed Moonrise Kingdom did 509k in only 4 theaters with a per screen average of $127,250. How is that mathmatically possible or do the specialty theaters in LA and NY that showed it this weekend hold like 500 or 1000 people and every screening sold out

The four theaters its playing at are playing it on two screens (the Arclight in Hollywood actually has it on three screens).

127250 divided by 3 (days) divided by 13 (average ticket price) = 3263 people attended each theater per day.

The film is only 94 minutes long, so most theaters have at least ten showtimes a day. Except the Arclight. Today they have 21 showings of it available.

MOONRISE KINGDOM BREAKS BOX OFFICE RECORDS
Posted by Peter Bowen | May 29, 2012
Wes Anderson's MOONRISE KINGDOM rose this weekend to set a new box office record. Pulling in an estimated 4-day weekend gross of $669,486.00 in 4 theaters (between Los Angeles and New York), MOONRISE KINGDOM broke the number for the highest recorded per-theater average for a live-action movie released domestically. The previous record was held by Dreamgirls, which opened in 2006. And prior to that the record was held by BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. Focus CEO James Schamus commented on the record-breaking weekend: "MOONRISE KINGDOM is a story of love's improbable triumph, and for Wes Anderson and his team a labor of love from start to finish. How wonderful it is to congratulate him, on behalf of everyone at Focus, for this remarkable, record-breaking opening."

http://focusfeatures.com/moonrise_kingdom/news?bid=moonrise_kingdom_breaks_box_office_records