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View Full Version : Roulette strategy question


Mabuse
10-27-10, 06:38 PM
I always wondered if this would work. I don't see why it wouldn't, but I bet you guys will correct me.

Red or Black, your odds are almost 50/50 (I'm aware of the 0 and 00).
You put $2 on black
If you win you collect your money
If you lose, then you put $4 on black,
If you lose, then you put $8 on black.
At this point you're in for $14, and let's say it comes up black, you win $16 right? You just won $2 overall.

Why can't a gambler just keep repeating this? As long as you double down every time you lose you come out ahead. Even if you double down until you're putting down thousands of dollars (which could easily happen) you will eventually hit black and win it all back. Right? There must be a hole in my plan.

Groucho
10-27-10, 06:42 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29

Mabuse
10-27-10, 07:28 PM
This sentance stood out A smart pit boss would welcome a Martingale strategy player and comp him heavily so that he returns.
So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.

stevevt
10-27-10, 08:42 PM
This sentance stood out So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.

If you plan on doubling every time you lose in a 2-hour period and start with $2, make sure you bring along $2.305843009213694 x 10<sup>18</sup>.

At least that's what my calculator is saying, based on 1 spin per minute (and losing 60 times).

Groucho
10-27-10, 10:00 PM
I would say this is an excellent system to play if you have an infinite bankroll and infinite time in which to gamble with it. :thumbsup:

mgbfan
10-27-10, 10:05 PM
So while the system is not a sure thing, it seems like the best way to 1) play for a long time and 2) maximize your comps. Lots of free cocktails and maybe a free dinner. If I do $2 bets, doubling every time I lose, play for 2 hours, lose $50 and drink six cocktails while I'm playing, I'd consider that a pretty good deal. Probably the same price as sitting at the bar.
You're missing the point. Pitbosses would want to comp you for a reason--because that play would ultimately be MASSIVELY profitable to the casino. In your scenario, you lose $50. But that's not how Martingale works. You don't lose $50. You lose a bunch more. In fact if you follow your own system, it's virtually impossible to lose $50. You'll win a little or lose it all.

Bring $500 with you. Suppose this works for awhile and you're up to $550. Even then you're EIGHT spins away from broke. And if you think you can't lose 8 spins in a row, you're kidding yourself.

mgbfan
10-27-10, 10:11 PM
Double post sorry

Mabuse
10-28-10, 12:18 PM
If you plan on doubling every time you lose in a 2-hour period and start with $2, make sure you bring along $2.305843009213694 x 10<sup>18</sup>.

At least that's what my calculator is saying, based on 1 spin per minute (and losing 60 times).
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

It seems like a very slow way to win, but also a very slow way to loose (provided I had enough bank roll to continue doubling)

Bring $500 with you. Suppose this works for awhile and you're up to $550. Even then you're EIGHT spins away from broke. And if you think you can't lose 8 spins in a row, you're kidding yourself. But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens. But would I hit the table limit? What is the table limit usually? $2,000

Deftones
10-28-10, 12:24 PM
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

rotfl

casinos love people like you...

Jacoby Ellsbury
10-28-10, 12:25 PM
Ive only sat at a roulette table less than 5 times, and Ive seen a 50-50 come up 12 times in a row.

I played online one time and the last time I ever do that as it is blatantly fixed. I was using a similar theory as this one. I started betting a color and even/odd. I saw black come up about 18 times in a row and the last 12+ were even black numbers.

Some math geek will come along with the probability theorem and disprove my theory, but from what Ive witnessed its better to ride the wave rather than bet on something because its overdue. If black comes up 3 times in a row, bet black. That thing will keep going black for 5 more times.

Groucho
10-28-10, 12:30 PM
But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens.Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBB

WallyOPD
10-28-10, 12:33 PM
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

It seems like a very slow way to win, but also a very slow way to loose (provided I had enough bank roll to continue doubling)

But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens. But would I hit the table limit? What is the table limit usually? $2,000

From the Wikipedia page Groucho linked above:

In 73 spins, there is a 50.3% chance that you will at some point have lost at least 6 spins in a row. (The chance of still being solvent after the first six spins is 0.978744, and the chance of becoming bankrupt at each subsequent spin is (1-0.526316)x0.021256 = 0.010069, where the first term is the chance that you won the (n-6)th spin - if you had lost the (n-6)th spin, you would have become bankrupt on the (n-1)th spin. Thus over 73 spins the probability of remaining solvent is 0.978744 x (1-0.010069)^67 = 0.49683, and thus the chance of becoming bankrupt is 1-0.49683 = 50.3%.)

So over 73 spins there's a >50% chance that at one point or another you'll be down $126 (and will need to place a $128 bet to continue your system, with a slightly <50% chance that you will win that bet).

I would be very careful about using this system if you're trying to just kill a couple hours without losing too much money.

Deftones
10-28-10, 12:40 PM
Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBB

obviously it is the first one, because there's no way it can hit black that many times!

Trevor
10-28-10, 01:39 PM
Reminds me of something I did in Vegas on a roulette machine to win two free buffets at one of the fancier places. Forget the details, but basically the more you bet the more points you won towards the meal. Basically spent $20 and an hour to get two $25 dinners. Not a big bargain, but it was sort of fun I guess.

starman9000
10-28-10, 01:45 PM
I would imagine that most people who use this system would run out of the stones to keep playing before they'd run out of bankroll.

notkevinbacon
10-28-10, 01:55 PM
<a href="http://photobucket.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v94/myworldisstatic/f5a1bfbd.jpg" border="0" alt="always bet on black"></a>

<b>Always</b> bet on black.

Dean Kousoulas
10-28-10, 03:13 PM
I've seen people use this method all the time when I browse the Roulette tables. People think it's foolproof because of the near 50/50 ratio, and they usually need to learn the hard way how dangerous this betting method is.

I would imagine that most people who use this system would run out of the stones to keep playing before they'd run out of bankroll.

Exactly. Let's say you're trying to win some decent money by starting your bets at $50 each. After 3 losing bets, you're looking at a $400 bet just to recover your loss + $50 profit.

As others said, you're either going to win a little or lose it all.

El Scorcho
10-28-10, 03:39 PM
http://www.okthen.com/martingale/5.gif

listen, you're not going to come up with a system to beat any casino game

especially not the martingale theory, which has been disproved a billion times over the internet

on a $5 minimum table, you're often going to see a $500 maximum bet. which means, you'll be able to cover $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, and $320 bets before you're not allowed to go higher. That's 7 losses in a row and quite easy to do if you sit down for a few hours.

if you're hell bent on drinking cheaply and slowly and minimizing the hit on the bankroll, play games that are slow dealing and low variance. Games like Pai Gow Poker, Let It Ride, etc. You may win a little, you may lose a little, but you're gonna be drinking a lot.

The golden rule: If you ever think you have a new betting system that will beat the casino (or someone tells you they do), you don't. Casinos have been offering games with mathematically proven house advantages that gamblers have been trying to "beat" for well over a century. There's nothing you can think of that hasn't been thought of and tried thousands of times before.

Red Dog
10-28-10, 03:51 PM
if you're hell bent on drinking cheaply and slowly and minimizing the hit on the bankroll, play games that are slow dealing and low variance. Games like Pai Gow Poker, Let It Ride, etc. You may win a little, you may lose a little, but you're gonna be drinking a lot.


Yep. Although I don't know about LIR. I've been killed in short fashion a few times on that. :lol:

I would also suggest Blackjack Switch for slow dealing & low variance.

Now Roulette is the game if you want to increase your chances of being at a table game with dumb hot chicks.

El Scorcho
10-28-10, 04:07 PM
Yep. Although I don't know about LIR. I've been killed in short fashion a few times on that. :lol:

I would also suggest Blackjack Switch for slow dealing & low variance.

Now Roulette is the game if you want to increase your chances of being at a table game with dumb hot chicks.

LIR you should last a while so long as you're on a full 7 person table where everyone takes their sweet ass time. At a 7 person table you probably play about 1 hand every 90 seconds, maybe even longer.

At a 3.5% house edge, you can expect to lose about 17.5 cents per hand in EV. Let's say you get 40 hands per hour... you're "paying" about $7/hr to play there. Assuming no $1 side bets.

With the side bets, you'll pay $.25 per hand, so an extra $10/hr.

It's a high variance game so perhaps its not the best example... it's just the slowest non-pai gow game I coudl think of.

Mabuse
10-28-10, 04:14 PM
Which sequence is more likely to occur:

BBRBRRBRBRRB

-or-

BBBBBBBBBBBBThey're both equally likely to occur.

El Scorcho, in your graph what is "Flat Betting"?

Red Dog
10-28-10, 04:27 PM
LIR you should last a while so long as you're on a full 7 person table where everyone takes their sweet ass time. At a 7 person table you probably play about 1 hand every 90 seconds, maybe even longer.

At a 3.5% house edge, you can expect to lose about 17.5 cents per hand in EV. Let's say you get 40 hands per hour... you're "paying" about $7/hr to play there. Assuming no $1 side bets.

With the side bets, you'll pay $.25 per hand, so an extra $10/hr.

It's a high variance game so perhaps its not the best example... it's just the slowest non-pai gow game I coudl think of.


That's true. I never play it anymore because I've had little luck at it. And my quicker exits were probably at tables that weren't crowded. And I always did the side bet, even though the house edge sucked.

I'm going back to Vegas next weekend. I think Flamingo has Mississippi Stud. Very similar to LIR. Might give it a shot. Oh how I miss their Caribbean Stud table - always won on that table. :(

Like I said Blackjack Switch is a good one for long term low variance play. I've rarely lost a lot playing that. Pretty easy to break even on hands between the switching, offering post-switching doubling and splitting, and even the dealer-push-22.

El Scorcho
10-28-10, 04:41 PM
They're both equally likely to occur.

El Scorcho, in your graph what is "Flat Betting"?

betting $10 a spin and never varying

Deftones
10-28-10, 04:41 PM
good luck finding blackjack switch in any place that's not named o'sheas or casino royale. :lol:

Red Dog
10-29-10, 09:42 AM
good luck finding blackjack switch in any place that's not named o'sheas or casino royale. :lol:

I've played it at Bill's and Excalibur. :shrug: Bill's has had it (2 tables) for at least a year now. I played it at Excalibur in August. It's getting popular. I would imagine if Excalibur has it, at least a few of the other MGM-Mirage casinos have it too.

Deftones
10-29-10, 10:18 AM
I think it's only in the 2nd tier casinos and a few of the downtown ones. Now, I haven't been to vegas in a year, so it could be in more places, but it was never in any of the main casinos.

El Scorcho
10-29-10, 02:10 PM
ya it's starting to gain more traction with the harrah's properties

i'm not a huge fan because it requires memorizing an even larger decision tree to play properly and if the dealer gets hot, it becomes doubly crippling. plus pushing on 22 is retarded.

I don't think it will ever really catch on for two reasons:

1) gimmicky 21 games (super fun 21, spanish 21, etc.) become too complicated for a casual player just looking for blackjack
2) I believe blackjack switch only has room for 5 players as opposed to 7 at a normal blackjack table

Red Dog
10-29-10, 02:17 PM
I haven't seen it in Harrahs properties (unless you count Bills) - at least not at Harrah's or Flamingo.

I just go by regular BJ strategy but play more conservative on the doubles and splits. Switching strategy isn't that hard - it's usually pretty obvious.

It seems pretty popular from what I've seen. I think people like it because it's more fun than regular BJ, but you likely won't see higher dollar tables for it.

Most regular BJ tables are 6 now. So it's one less spot.

mhg83
11-06-10, 09:33 AM
Would it be a better strategy if you switch colors each spin?

Deftones
11-06-10, 09:47 AM
Would it be a better strategy if you switch colors each spin?

would it be better if you are flipping coins and switched sides each flip?

the short answer is no for each, because there is no memory involved in the game.

mgbfan
11-06-10, 12:53 PM
Would it be a better strategy if you switch colors each spin?

I presume that's a joke.

Deftones
11-06-10, 01:27 PM
i wouldn't presume anything with him. :lol:

mhg83
11-06-10, 02:21 PM
I presume that's a joke.

No I'm serious. I tried this strategy with video roulette and it works:

$1,000

$5 red win
$10 black lose
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black win
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black lose
$80 red win

I ended up with $1,025 a gain of $25.

stevevt
11-06-10, 02:30 PM
No I'm serious. I tried this strategy with video roulette and it works:

$1,000

$5 red win
$10 black lose
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black win
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black lose
$80 red win

I ended up with $1,025 a gain of $25.

I'm sold.

Deftones
11-06-10, 04:18 PM
No I'm serious. I tried this strategy with video roulette and it works:

$1,000

$5 red win
$10 black lose
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black win
$5 red win
$10 black lose
$20 red lose
$40 black lose
$80 red win

I ended up with $1,025 a gain of $25.

that's brilliant. i wonder why nobody has thought of that before.

El Scorcho
11-07-10, 02:33 AM
http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/626271/2/istockphoto_626271_endless_money_1_u_s_dollar.jpg

Dean Kousoulas
11-07-10, 09:15 PM
You're thinking too small Scorcho...

http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/1289904/2/istockphoto_1289904-100-bills-background.jpg

Groucho
11-07-10, 10:32 PM
mhg83 is on the right track.

RBRBRBRBRB is more likely to occur than RRRRRRRRRR or BBBBBBBBBB because there's a 50% chance that either will come up!

starman9000
11-08-10, 11:44 AM
That's not even using the 'system' right is it? Shouldn't those $10 Black losses be $5 black losses?

mgbfan
11-08-10, 12:28 PM
My mistake, when I look at the system it does look flawless.

starman9000
11-08-10, 01:28 PM
Really it's perfect, though you should split a bet on 0/00 about once ever 20 spins to cover that scenario.

El Scorcho
11-08-10, 02:42 PM
i'm headed to vegas in 12 days for an entire week

you're all welcome to stay for free at my casino after I nickel-and-dime the roulette wheel using this strategy for an entire week and end up buying the place

ENDLESS MONEYS

Deftones
11-08-10, 04:20 PM
i'm headed to vegas in 12 days for an entire week

you're all welcome to stay for free at my casino after I nickel-and-dime the roulette wheel using this strategy for an entire week and end up buying the place

ENDLESS MONEYS

hey. that's funny. i will also be in vegas in 12 days, although not for an entire week.

starman9000
11-08-10, 04:25 PM
i'm headed to vegas in 12 days for an entire week

you're all welcome to stay for free at my casino after I nickel-and-dime the roulette wheel using this strategy for an entire week and end up buying the place

ENDLESS MONEYS

Aren't you worried we are going to steal all your money with this new system? Or will you ban roulette? (just a warning, I think I can modify it for Black Jack)

El Scorcho
11-08-10, 04:33 PM
Aren't you worried we are going to steal all your money with this new system? Or will you ban roulette? (just a warning, I think I can modify it for Black Jack)


I will be adding 3 new spots on the wheel:

000, 0000, and 00000

suck it!

Red Dog
11-11-10, 08:49 AM
Oh and you can add Bellagio to those that have blackjack switch now (so it must be a MGM Mirage thing now). Although they have it $15 (on a Monday morning no less) compared to the $5 you'll find at Bill's and Excalibur. :lol:

Deftones
11-11-10, 10:25 AM
i never gamble at the bellagio because i look like a homeless person when i'm in vegas. and i have that much money, too.

DVDKrayzie
11-12-10, 07:43 PM
I would say this is an excellent system to play if you have an infinite bankroll and infinite time in which to gamble with it. :thumbsup:

Which you would still lose your money because in the real world, casinos have maximums as well as minimums (for this very reason). So the time you reach the table max and lose you can't use this strategy anymore to catch up and now you're really stuck.

There are so many holes in the martingale strategy it's ridiculous to even try. When I dealt roulette, people tried this ALL the time and they would usually either run out of money (very rarely would they even have the $ to cover the maximum bet $5000 anyway) or they would win about $50. So risk all your money to win $50? Yea we'd comp you well!

Also where the heck can you bet $2 friggin dollars on the outside? All the casinos around here is $5 minimum outside/inside.

The amazing thing is how many people think roulette is a "50/50" game. or even CLOSE to it. Roulette has one of the highest house edges out there coincedentally--ESPECIALLY with a double 00 wheel.

If you really want to use the martingale, go use it on baccarat (banker bet only), even after commission, the house edge is like one-fifth of roulette and there are no decisions or strategies, just leaving it up to chance at a game that is actually "closer" to true 50/50 odds.

With that being said, only games worth playing in a casino if you know what you're doing are certain blackjack games (which are getting rarer and rarer lately) and poker. And whoever said that about the chicks at roulette was right, hot white chicks love that stupid game for some reason.

Mabuse
02-04-11, 05:58 PM
http://www.okthen.com/martingale/5.gif



I was just re-reading this thread. Doesn't this graph prove my point? I could show up with $20,000 and I would lose the money very slowly. I could play 1,000,000 spins and only lose $5,000. How long would it take to play 1 million spins? Let's say it could be done over a three day weekend (it probably couldn't, but let's say it could).

So I could show up on a Friday with $20,000...flash it around, set myself up at a table and begin this joke of a system. With that kind of dough wouldn't I be comped the rainman suite, have all my meals comp'd, get tickets to the show, and drink all the booze I want? And over the three day weekend it only cost me $5,000. That's not a bad deal.

Look at the first hash mark on the x axis. That's 100,000 spins. That's a shit load of spins, and you lose a lot slower than someone making straight bets.

This is a no win strategy. Over a long enough timeline you will be broke, but imagine all the shit they'd give you while you were on the ride down. The thing that hamstings this method is the table limit. What is the table limit in Vegas?

pinata242
02-04-11, 06:31 PM
That graph goes to 10,000 not 1,000,000. Off by a factor of 100. Are you sure you're comfortable with math?

At any rate, assuming the previously-mentioned 1-minute/spin estimate, 10,000 minutes is right about 7 days.

The 1,000,000 iterations is how many times they ran the simulation and averaged them out.

Groucho
02-04-11, 06:35 PM
If you go in with $20,000 and start betting Martingale with $5000 you'll be out of money after two spins. :lol:

pinata242
02-04-11, 06:42 PM
From the source of that 1,000,000 iteration average: http://www.okthen.com/martingale/

Check out these 2 different scenarios (each 1 of the 1,000,000):

http://www.okthen.com/martingale/1.gif http://www.okthen.com/martingale/2.gif

DVDKrayzie
02-04-11, 06:45 PM
So I could show up on a Friday with $20,000...flash it around, set myself up at a table and begin this joke of a system. With that kind of dough wouldn't I be comped the rainman suite, have all my meals comp'd, get tickets to the show, and drink all the booze I want? And over the three day weekend it only cost me $5,000. That's not a bad deal.




Well your comps arent based on your buy in at all (unless you show up with like a million dollars and promise action). It's based on your average bet, time and house edge for exactly this reason. So your $5 action won't really get you much. People used to try this all the time. People would also get mad when they'd lose $10,000 or something and it was only cause they bet $5000 twice ever or something and would be stunned when they barely had any comps. $20,000 isnt really that much to "flash" around anyways. Go into the higher pits and this is just 1 buy in from 1 payer. $20,000 hands yea sure.

mgbfan
02-05-11, 12:20 AM
LOL that we're still discussing this. Are there really people still thinking it's in any way a good idea?

moorehed
02-05-11, 05:46 PM
I just wait until it's come up red 10x in a row then i bet the house on black. Aint no way it could go red 11 times in a row. This always works for me.

El Scorcho
02-06-11, 12:00 AM
I was just re-reading this thread. Doesn't this graph prove my point? I could show up with $20,000 and I would lose the money very slowly. I could play 1,000,000 spins and only lose $5,000. How long would it take to play 1 million spins? Let's say it could be done over a three day weekend (it probably couldn't, but let's say it could).

So I could show up on a Friday with $20,000...flash it around, set myself up at a table and begin this joke of a system. With that kind of dough wouldn't I be comped the rainman suite, have all my meals comp'd, get tickets to the show, and drink all the booze I want? And over the three day weekend it only cost me $5,000. That's not a bad deal.

Look at the first hash mark on the x axis. That's 100,000 spins. That's a shit load of spins, and you lose a lot slower than someone making straight bets.

This is a no win strategy. Over a long enough timeline you will be broke, but imagine all the shit they'd give you while you were on the ride down. The thing that hamstings this method is the table limit. What is the table limit in Vegas?

that graph is the average of 1,000,000 separate trials, with each trial consisting of 10,000 spins each.

at any rate, the martingale system is god awful -- if you wanna believe your own thoughts and ignore the million articles on the internet saying it's a disaster, go ahead

mhg83
02-06-11, 10:48 PM
Okay so the martingale system is flawed. I tried out a new startegy that's similar but instead of betting on the same color, you change colors every spin:

I started out with $1,000

$5 black lose
$10 red win
$5 black win
$10 red lose
$20 black lose
$40 red win
$10 black win

final payout was $1,020. Walking away with $20 is pretty good for only 7 spins

Groucho
02-06-11, 10:52 PM
:lol: Can you really not see that that's the exact same strategy?

pinata242
02-06-11, 11:08 PM
What are you talking about, Groucho? If he stuck with black it would have been:

$5 black lose ($995)
$10 black lose ($985)
$20 black win ($1005)
$5 black win ($1010)
$5 black lose ($1005)
$10 black lose ($995)
$20 black win ($1015)

He came out $5 ahead with that strategy! That's like 33% more money!

Although... Hmm... I guess if he bet black the second time, we don't know that it would have actually been a loss (red). Maybe he was fated to win the second spin either way. Is there a system that factors in fate?

mgbfan
02-07-11, 12:55 AM
Okay so the martingale system is flawed. I tried out a new startegy that's similar but instead of betting on the same color, you change colors every spin:

I started out with $1,000

$5 black lose
$10 red win
$5 black win
$10 red lose
$20 black lose
$40 red win
$10 black win

final payout was $1,020. Walking away with $20 is pretty good for only 7 spins

This seems to be flawless to me. There is no mathematical way that this could possibly not work. I think Vegas casinos are in for a bruising!

drmoze
03-06-11, 07:31 PM
But in a near 50:50 black/red bet who is wrong 60 times in a row? That would never happen.

It seems like a very slow way to win, but also a very slow way to loose (provided I had enough bank roll to continue doubling)

But eight consecutive losses is rare. Let's say I had $10,000. I could loose 12 times in a row, which almost never happens. But would I hit the table limit? What is the table limit usually? $2,000

Please see my .sig below. Line 1.

Mabuse
03-07-11, 01:15 PM
If I ran this place you would get banned for a bump like that. What a looser.