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View Full Version : Iphone coming to Verizon Jan. 2011


Mankal
06-29-10, 05:59 PM
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/bloomberg-verizon-to-offer-iphone-in-january-poll/36391

SOURCE BLOOMBERG:
"Apple’s iPhone, tied to AT&T as its exclusive carrier in the U.S. since it first hit the scene, will become available for the Verizon network, starting in January, according to a Bloomberg report that cites at least two sources who are familiar with the plans. (Techmeme)

The news - which is hardly the first time the rumor mill has launched Verizon-iPhone buzz - follows the release and record sales of the iPhone 4 through AT&T this month. As part of the release, AT&T allowed customers whose contracts were slated to expire this year to renew early - and lock themselves in as AT&T customers for two more years - to get the subsidized price from AT&T.

The exclusivity contract with AT&T has long been considered something that’s kept Apple’s device from growing at an even faster pace. AT&T’s service problems, especially in New York and San Francisco, has turned the company into the butt of late night jokes and generally been Apple’s weakest link. Verizon has said in the past that its network - considered to be superior to AT&T’s in most regions - is equipped to handle iPhone traffic.

More importantly, though, the three-year period that Apple and AT&T have stayed exclusive partners allowed competitors - notably Google with its Android devices - the time to develop alternative platforms and gain traction among consumers looking for a high-end smartphone like the iPhone, but on a different network.

Neither Apple nor Verizon confirmed the deal with Bloomberg."

SuperBatMan
06-29-10, 06:15 PM
We should just have one thread titled 'Verizon iPhone rumors' as this is about the 15th rumor about it.

At this point, I'll believe it when I see the iPhone listed on Verizon's site.

Deftones
06-29-10, 06:53 PM
we get this rumor every three months. :lol:

honestly, i'd prefer it not to. with all the issues ATT has with keeping up with data b/c of this damn phone, I don't want that on my provider too.

Giantrobo
06-29-10, 07:01 PM
Nooooooo!

TheNightFlier
06-29-10, 07:10 PM
we get this rumor every three months. :lol:

honestly, i'd prefer it not to. with all the issues ATT has with keeping up with data b/c of this damn phone, I don't want that on my provider too.

It's like clockwork. :lol:

At this point it wouldn't surprise me if it went to Sprint or T-Mobile.

Mankal
06-29-10, 07:48 PM
Sorry for crying wolf guys. I wasnt aware of this, and with a trusted source like Bloomberg, who'd know? :doh:

MODS: PLEASE FEEL FREE TO DELETE THIS THREAD UNTIL WE HAVE MORE CONCRETE EVIDENCE

raven56706
06-29-10, 09:10 PM
no concrete evidence... twikoff and i had a debate about this... no way does it get announced... this rumor has happened 25 times... just like the bestbuy employee who saw the iphone for sprint

jfoobar
06-29-10, 10:45 PM
This is a lead story on USAToday.com as well, but they are just citing the Bloomberg story as the source right now.

Ted Todorov
06-29-10, 11:22 PM
I don't believe it. Here is why:

While Bloomberg has been reliable in the past, the timing leads me to think that this is a false leak coming from a panicked over iPhone 4 sales figures Verizon*. Why false? Because unless Verizon's management has been living under a bolder for the last decade, they know that Steve Jobs is fully prepared to walk away from a deal if the partner leaks about it to the press. (Notoriously ATI video cards were pulled from a brand new PowerMac on the eve of MacWorld because they didn't keep their mouths shut a day or two before the Jobsnote.) Leaking six months ahead of time would downright suicidal. Thus, false leak.

*More accurately, Verizon is panicking over their "churn" figures which they no doubt get in real time.

It has been widely reported that 70% of the 1.7 million early iPhone 4 customers are upgraders from earlier iPhones. But what no one seems to be asking is what is happening to all those old iPhones. From all my anecdotal evidence (including asking here in the other thread) most will continue to be used as phones, having been handed down, gifted, sold, etc. And the new recipients of used iPhones are likely to be (now former) Verizon customers in the same proportion as the general population. So in fact Verizon doesn't have to worry about just 30% of those iPhone 4 buyers -- they have to worry about 90% (figuring the remaining 10% of old iPhones get turned into iPods or end up in a drawer).

Scary stuff if you are Verizon. Scary enough to make up a well timed story and feed it to Bloomberg.

al_bundy
06-30-10, 05:46 AM
On the other hand android is doing fairly well. I've also heard a lot of these stories cone from china where some contract manufacturer is about to go ipo. Pegatron I think

Superman07
06-30-10, 07:29 AM
Can we get a change to the title that adds a question mark? As others have said this is an additional rumor, and the title makes it sound like fact.

Ted Todorov
06-30-10, 09:04 AM
On the other hand android is doing fairly well. I've also heard a lot of these stories cone from china where some contract manufacturer is about to go ipo. Pegatron I think
There is no doubt that it is -- but it is not exclusive to Verizon. Upgrades to Android on Verizon are probably coming chiefly from within from flip phone or BlackBerry (particularly Storm) users.

To put it another way the iPhone is having a disruptive effect for AT&T. Android is having a positive effect for Verizon but it isn't any way comparable to what the iPhone is doing, and, my guess is, not enough to stench the bleed of customers from Verizon to AT&T for the iPhone, particularly in areas where AT&T doesn't suck.

RichC2
06-30-10, 09:23 AM
This is valid, but at the same time you have to remember until the Droid was released in November of '09, Verizon literally had no quality phones on their network (outside of a Blackberry or two). By that point the damage was done.

An iPhone for Verizon would be absolutely huge, I know I've been following it purely from a stock buyer prespective (it's just a phone, but there was a lot of truth to that Evo vs. iPhone spoof.) So we'll see, Verizon has been a pretty stable stock for the last few years, after the massive drop it took in 2008, keeping a pretty reasonable range, I imagine it would take off given the ammo that comes with having both the biggest network and the biggest phone.

D.Pham4GLTE (>60GB)
06-30-10, 10:18 AM
i'd gladly buy an iphone once they don't charge a monthly data plan. other than that, no iphone for me.

Groucho
06-30-10, 10:26 AM
And with that, Verizon joined the vast worldwide conspiracy against left-handers.

fumanstan
06-30-10, 11:05 AM
I believe this is as much as I believe Ted's conspiracy theory about how this was leaked because of Apple's sheer awesomeness.

Ted Todorov
06-30-10, 11:18 AM
I believe this is as much as I believe Ted's conspiracy theory about how this was leaked because of Apple's sheer awesomeness.
I wouldn't be coming out with any such theory if it weren't for all the previous, at this point demonstrably false, iPhone on Verizon leaks. It is a wild guess on my part, but that's where logic leads. Awesomeness has nothing to do with it -- raw sales figures do.

At any rate, I am not claiming any certainty about my theory and would love to hear what others think:

Where did this "leak" come from? What is the motive behind it? (Coming as it does ONE day after Apple announces record-breaking, analyst prediction killing iPhone 4 sales.)

nickdawgy
07-01-10, 12:57 PM
Wow cool. An overhyped phone on Verizon. I should sell my Incredible so I can have a snazzy front facing cam and fart apps.

Draven
07-01-10, 01:08 PM
Wow cool. An overhyped phone on Verizon. I should sell my Incredible so I can have a snazzy front facing cam and fart apps.

So true. Thank god the Droid doesn (http://www.droidfart.com/)'t have such immature applications.

Ted Todorov
07-01-10, 02:45 PM
The leak is a "negotiating tactic" (http://www.loopinsight.com/2010/07/01/about-this-verizon-compatible-iphone/)
Not sure how that works, but boils down to the same thing -- the leak is a fake.

Timber
07-01-10, 02:48 PM
Mehh, I love my original Droid and by the time my upgrade is here again there will be a bigger better Droid that I'll be getting. Hell I'm still drooling over the Droid X.

nickdawgy
07-01-10, 06:38 PM
So true. Thank god the Droid doesn (http://www.droidfart.com/)'t have such immature applications.

How cute. Did you post from your iPhone?

Anubis2005X
07-01-10, 06:56 PM
So now we don't just have console fanboys, we have cellphone fanboys? Come on people...

fumanstan
07-01-10, 09:12 PM
So now we don't just have console fanboys, we have cellphone fanboys? Come on people...

Well, we have Apple fanboys first, which have been around for some time. It's just extending to other markets :p

Ted Todorov
07-01-10, 11:22 PM
Fandroids of the world unite!!!

There needs to be a term of art for people who call Apple products "toys". It is an insult that is old enough to drink and rent cars by now.

I mean seriously the computer holly wars are beyond silly, but better computers than religion, I suppose.

al_bundy
07-02-10, 09:13 AM
The leak is a "negotiating tactic" (http://www.loopinsight.com/2010/07/01/about-this-verizon-compatible-iphone/)
Not sure how that works, but boils down to the same thing -- the leak is a fake.


apple told verizon they want $$$ for the iphone.
verizon told them to pound sand.
apple leaks a story to generate excitement for a VZW iphone thinking VZ will pay the money they want.
verizon tells apple again to pound sand or accept a lower price since they have the upper hand

we had our few years where the phone rules and not the carrier. now that there are very nice android phones coming out the pendulum is going back to the carrier. not that much difference between iphones and android phones for most people

Mankal
07-02-10, 09:24 AM
apple told verizon they want $$$ for the iphone.
verizon told them to pound sand.
apple leaks a story to generate excitement for a VZW iphone thinking VZ will pay the money they want.
verizon tells apple again to pound sand or accept a lower price since they have the upper hand


I would think that Verizon would make up the rumor to prevent people from getting an Iphone on At&T now and holding off while Verizon stalls. Why would Apple leak out this false story, it is not going to boost their sales?

SonOfAStu
07-02-10, 09:36 AM
lol - so we can see how both sides "might" leak this information. Love seeing where the fanboys come down. rotfl

al_bundy
07-02-10, 10:14 AM
I would think that Verizon would make up the rumor to prevent people from getting an Iphone on At&T now and holding off while Verizon stalls. Why would Apple leak out this false story, it is not going to boost their sales?


apple is where Microsoft was around 2000. they are under pressure to grow earnings at a high rate, but the law of large numbers is against them. i doubt AT&T was the only one to take the hit for the early upgrade giveaway.

Apple needs to keep growing hardware sales. They probably wanted some ridiculous price per phone from verizon. i never believed that AT&T paid $600 per phone but say it was $400 or something close. Since Verizon can't keep Droids in stock they probably told Apple to pound sand.

Apple leaks a story so that everyone can scan the blogs for marketing purposes and see how everyone wants a verizon iphone. Since everyone runs Oracle financials and does the modeling before signing a contract, Verizon probably told Apple to go away until they come back with a price where they can make money as well.

since the 3G and 3GS all have been rumored to have hardware/software issues that play havoc with the AT&T network i wouldn't be surprised if AT&T is letting Apple do whatever they want either

Ted Todorov
07-02-10, 11:19 AM
The problem with al bundy's reasoning is that Apple would sustain far more damage to current sales with such a leak (people holding off on buying iPhone 4 when the Verizon iPhone is coming) which would be doubly damaging if it isn't coming to Verizon. All this so that a bunch of bloggers can guesstimate how many billion dollars Verizon would make from the iPhone as a way of convincing Verizon? Seriously?

not that much difference between iphones and android phones for most people
If that were true, there would be successful Android phones on carriers that also have the iPhone.
Hint: no such phones exist.
There would also be successful non-cell phone Android devices competing with the iPod Touch
Hint: no such devices exist.

fumanstan
07-02-10, 11:31 AM
I could easily see that with competition from Android, there's less reason for people to jump networks just to get an iPhone when there are comparable devices on other carriers. With iPhone 4 buyers mostly being folks who already are on AT&T because they own existing iPhone's, you could argue that leaking iPhone rumors could help curtail phone buyers from locking into another 2 year contract with their Droid so people wait.

There aren't any successful Android phones on AT&T because there are only shitty Android phones on AT&T. That and AT&T has ridiculous restrictions on the Android Market.

Or, the leak could have just made up by some idiot with nothing to do with anything. It could be all irrelevant.

Groucho
07-02-10, 11:33 AM
Think different! If Albert Einstein had a cell phone, it would be an iPhone!

The Cow
07-02-10, 11:38 AM
He would have an einPhone.

fumanstan
07-02-10, 11:40 AM
http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/1838/dogeinmt0.jpg

:D Sorry, just love this dog from Cowboy Bebop.

FantasticVSDoom
07-02-10, 11:40 AM
Or, the leak could have just made up by some idiot with nothing to do with anything. It could be all irrelevant.

Winner!!! I think this is exactly what it is...

Ted Todorov
07-02-10, 11:44 AM
Or, the leak could have just made up by some idiot with nothing to do with anything. It could be all irrelevant.
I just hope that Bloomberg wouldn't print a story based on someone who isn't really in a position to know such a thing. But considering how many news organization these days print Apple related rumors that they have clearly not independently verified, maybe I shouldn't count on too much journalistic integrity.

al_bundy
07-02-10, 12:32 PM
The problem with al bundy's reasoning is that Apple would sustain far more damage to current sales with such a leak (people holding off on buying iPhone 4 when the Verizon iPhone is coming) which would be doubly damaging if it isn't coming to Verizon. All this so that a bunch of bloggers can guesstimate how many billion dollars Verizon would make from the iPhone as a way of convincing Verizon? Seriously?


If that were true, there would be successful Android phones on carriers that also have the iPhone.
Hint: no such phones exist.
There would also be successful non-cell phone Android devices competing with the iPod Touch
Hint: no such devices exist.

everyone uses technorati and other services that scan the internet to gauge interest in a product. they've been doing it for years. bloggers don't have to guess the finances. technorati will tell a client how much interest there is about a product based on their scans. that's how t-mobile came up with their unlimited texting plan years ago. they were one of the first clients and back then the big complaint was per text charges

for apple the idea would be to leak a story like this and have technorati or whoever tell verizon how a lot of people want a verizon iphone in the hope of verizon paying up the price they want per phone. verizon will still tell them to pound sand if it's too much. and i think verizon is behind a lot of the death grip hysteria via grassroots internet marketing firms.


most of the popular apps are on both platforms or will be on both platforms soon. Android tablets are coming soon because the OS wasn't ready yet. dell is going to ship something around August.

Evo's and Incredibles are backordered. The Droid was a very popular phone and a new one is coming in a few weeks.

Android as a platform around the world is selling good enough to scare Apple about it's growth prospects. carriers don't really need to beg apple anymore for the iphone or give apple so much money that it would destroy their profits. apple needs to grow earnings at double digit rates or the stock will plummet. everyone knows this

Draven
07-02-10, 12:42 PM
Android as a platform around the world is selling good enough to scare Apple about it's growth prospects. carriers don't really need to beg apple anymore for the iphone or give apple so much money that it would destroy their profits. apple needs to grow earnings at double digit rates or the stock will plummet. everyone knows this

Does this mean you don't think that Verizon execs would murder their own mothers to get the iPhone? Cause you'd be wrong.

al_bundy
07-02-10, 12:48 PM
2 years ago they would, today they don't have to. there is a 1 month wait on the Incredible. longer than the iphone 4. and the Droid X is getting good buzz as well.

Verizon will take the iphone but i don't think they will agree to any ridiculous pricing if Apple pushes it. verizon pays a dividend and doesn't have to grow earnings by 20%. Android doesn't have to defeat the iphone. A dent in growth will send the stock plummeting and the top talent will leave due to their options being worthless. just like microsoft circa 2000 - 2003 or so

Apple is locked into the profit from the hardware and needs to keep growing hardware sales. not just replace hardware. this is why a lot of companies use the razor blades/loss leader model

and everyone knows that AT&T has a huge number of accounts tied up in family accounts that are hard to switch carriers. i think the percentage is alot more than verizon

Nefarious
07-02-10, 01:18 PM
If Verizon plays hardball they risk Apple going to Sprint or someone else with the phone next. Regardless of how well you think Verizon is doing, and they are doing fine, they dropped the ball big time by not getting the iPhone when they had the chance.

Whoever gets it next will get a big surge in customers as those who've had major issues with At&t's network will undoubtedly flock to them to see if its better. That coupled with the existing base wanting it will equal success. Verizon would be foolish to overplay the hand and think they wouldn't benefit and can risk letting it go to someone else.

RE: Incredible. I'd like to see what the manufacturing #'s are. I wouldn't be surprised if more iPhones are produced & sold in a week than there are Incredibles in an entire month. A longer wait does not equal greater demand. It could just mean poor supply & supply chain management.

As for the hardware replacement. Trust me, Apple is doing just fine. Check out this graph:

http://images.macrumors.com/article/2010/06/30/152826-admob_may_2010_android_ios.jpg

It shows that as of May 2010 there are 11 million + unique iPhones on the US market and 29 million worldwide. Apple has sold over 50 million. People upgrade and replace just fine. I'm on my 4th. I've owned one of every generation. I know I'm the exception but the numbers don't lie about the overall picture....despite what my signature says.

al_bundy
07-02-10, 01:22 PM
Droid Life had a rumor a few weeks ago that Sprint told Apple to pound sand with the iphone because Apple wanted too much money. they also had a rumor that VZ and Apple already signed the iphone contract so take it for what it's worth.

but even Sprint won't sign away for a deal where they don't make money. no reason to in mid 2010 when Android is doing fairly well. Google and HTC just need to fix their branding. like Verizon did with the Droid brand.

The Cow
07-02-10, 01:25 PM
What we have learned from this thread.. Al Bundy likes to use the words "pound sand".

rocketsauce
07-02-10, 01:30 PM
What we have learned from this thread.. Al Bundy likes to use the words "pound sand".

rotfl I was just thinking that!

Nefarious
07-02-10, 01:34 PM
What we have learned from this thread.. Al Bundy likes to use the words "pound sand".

rotfl I was just thinking that!


If you two don't like it then you know what you can do...you, too, can pound sand.

al_bundy
07-02-10, 01:46 PM
If Verizon plays hardball they risk Apple going to Sprint or someone else with the phone next. Regardless of how well you think Verizon is doing, and they are doing fine, they dropped the ball big time by not getting the iPhone when they had the chance.

Whoever gets it next will get a big surge in customers as those who've had major issues with At&t's network will undoubtedly flock to them to see if its better. That coupled with the existing base wanting it will equal success. Verizon would be foolish to overplay the hand and think they wouldn't benefit and can risk letting it go to someone else.

RE: Incredible. I'd like to see what the manufacturing #'s are. I wouldn't be surprised if more iPhones are produced & sold in a week than there are Incredibles in an entire month. A longer wait does not equal greater demand. It could just mean poor supply & supply chain management.

As for the hardware replacement. Trust me, Apple is doing just fine. Check out this graph:

http://images.macrumors.com/article/2010/06/30/152826-admob_may_2010_android_ios.jpg

It shows that as of May 2010 there are 11 million + unique iPhones on the US market and 29 million worldwide. Apple has sold over 50 million. People upgrade and replace just fine. I'm on my 4th. I've owned one of every generation. I know I'm the exception but the numbers don't lie about the overall picture....despite what my signature says.

i never said apple was in trouble. and i think both platforms will grab around 40% of the market each and let the other category have the rest. unlike what happened after windows took over in the 1990's.

eric schmidt said they are selling something like 20,000 plus android phones a day worldwide. apple needs to keep growing revenue and profits at double digit rates which becomes harder and harder every year. MS grew profits by 10% to 15% a year on average over the last 10 years and the stock still sank because it was at a slower rate than the 1990's. a lot of smart people left to go work at Google and other start ups because their options became worthless. Apple risks the same thing and everyone knows this so they don't have to sign a contract with apple that leaves apple with all the profits. a lot of the engineers that designed the original iphone came from Palm after the company started to implode

i'm not saying verizon will never get the iphone, it's just that apple isn't in the same position as a few years ago and verizon doesn't have to agree to demands that will let them take too much risk for little or no profit. there is formidable competition and everyone knows they are under pressure to grow. which is why they tried to sell bumpers to customers instead of letting others sell the accessories like in the past. and it's the reason why apple reversed their position on using other development tools to the point where it only excludes flash. gameloft and others probably told steve jobs he's crazy if he thinks they will code games manually in C

Ted Todorov
07-02-10, 02:08 PM
Reality check: iPad blasts past Android in usage share (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/ipad-blasts-past-android-in-usage-share/8829)
The iPad has been out for three months (the 3G version for two) and is already leading all Android devices put together in usage share.

To me that shows that Apple continues to outgrow Android -- it isn't anywhere close to starting to catch up.

So far as Apple/Verizon -- the only thing I know about that isn't wild eyed speculation are the public statements. Verizon stated publicly in 2010 that they want the iPhone. Apple has never said anything about wanting Verizon. Beyond that, if and when a Verizon iPhone ever gets (or doesn't get) announced, we will know more.

My personal wild guess: T-Mobile will be the first new US iPhone carrier after AT&T. No, I have no evidence of any kind.

I do think that Apple has a CDMA iPhone sitting in in labs, ready for mass production, but I would think this above all for a potential China Mobile partnership.

Anubis2005X
07-02-10, 02:39 PM
I'm not even sure what the term "pound sand" is supposed to mean?

rocketsauce
07-02-10, 02:57 PM
I'm not even sure what the term "pound sand" is supposed to mean?

Pound Sand

"The origin of the expression go pound sand is from a longer expression, not to know (have enough sense to) pound sand down a rathole. Filling rat holes with sand is menial work, and telling someone to pound sand down a hole is like telling them to go fly a kite. The expression dates to at least 1912 and is common in the midwestern United States."

fumanstan
07-02-10, 03:11 PM
Reality check: iPad blasts past Android in usage share (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/ipad-blasts-past-android-in-usage-share/8829)
The iPad has been out for three months (the 3G version for two) and is already leading all Android devices put together in usage share.

To me that shows that Apple continues to outgrow Android -- it isn't anywhere close to starting to catch up.

So far as Apple/Verizon -- the only thing I know about that isn't wild eyed speculation are the public statements. Verizon stated publicly in 2010 that they want the iPhone. Apple has never said anything about wanting Verizon. Beyond that, if and when a Verizon iPhone ever gets (or doesn't get) announced, we will know more.

My personal wild guess: T-Mobile will be the first new US iPhone carrier after AT&T. No, I have no evidence of any kind.

I do think that Apple has a CDMA iPhone sitting in in labs, ready for mass production, but I would think this above all for a potential China Mobile partnership.

AdMob data has the combination of all Android devices leading the iPhone now in the US recently. Worldwide is another story though, and this is before iPhone 4 which im sure will change things considerably. Either way, I don't see how anyone can say Android isn't catching up to the iPhone, the marketshare has been increasing steadily as far as I've seen.

http://phandroid.com/2010/06/30/android-iphone-dominate-2-years-of-mobile-admob/

Ted Todorov
07-02-10, 05:21 PM
Yes Android market share has been increasing -- indeed Android is an unqualified success.

I think that it is fair to say though that Android's climb to stardom has happened at the expense of WinMo, Palm, Nokia and lately RIM, not Apple's iOS.

Unless we start playing games like only comparing Android in the US (cause you know HTC is such an American company and Google can hardly be found abroad) or only vs. phones (Android is not a phone, it is an operating system, just like iOS). If you compare Android vs. iOS in terms of devices in use, or data usage stats or what have you -- Android is far from catching up to the iOS.

Android may end up surpassing iOS in the future, but that simply isn't anytime soon, nor is it a given. Neither Google nor Apple are going to be stagnant -- this is a fast moving race. Apple will introduce more iOS based products. Some may be quite successful.

sherm42
07-02-10, 09:33 PM
I hope the iPhone goes to Verizon. Not because I want to be on Verizon. I want all the millions of people always complaining about AT&T to take their iPhone to Verizon, and watch as Verizon's network gets slammed.

Meanwhile, AT&T's network will better than ever from the lighter loads from all the people who leave. It will be amusing to see people bash Verizon as not being prepared for the millions of people being added to their network.

Ted Todorov
07-03-10, 09:33 AM
I hope the iPhone goes to Verizon. Not because I want to be on Verizon. I want all the millions of people always complaining about AT&T to take their iPhone to Verizon, and watch as Verizon's network gets slammed.

Meanwhile, AT&T's network will better than ever from the lighter loads from all the people who leave. It will be amusing to see people bash Verizon as not being prepared for the millions of people being added to their network.
Couldn't agree more. Indeed ideally the iPhone should be on all four major networks and Apple should sell an officially unlocked GSM version in the US (as it does in Italy, Belgium, Hong Kong, etc.). Choice is good!

nickdawgy
07-04-10, 12:19 AM
I'm not even sure what the term "pound sand" is supposed to mean?

I always thought it meant to go fuck yourself :lol:

Pretty dumb expression.

Gizmo
07-04-10, 12:58 AM
If you two don't like it then you know what you can do...you, too, can pound sand.

Common term in the car business.

Ted Todorov
07-04-10, 04:38 PM
I've given the notion that carriers in general and Verizon in particular holds power over cell phone makers and Apple in particular some more thought and decided it is totally bogus.

Simple thought experiment: Apple tomorrow releases the iPhone through T-Mobile and Sprint while keeping AT&T (this is entirely in Apple's hands -- both carriers would jump at the chance and let Apple have 100% control).

Lots of people refuse to use AT&T (or any given carrier). The subset that refuses to use anyone who is not Verizon is substantially smaller.

How long before Verizon gives Apple everything it wants? One week or two?

Also, the notion that Verizon is unwilling to do a deal with Apple is a little bit bizarre -- Vodaphone owns 50% of Verizon and it sells the iPhone quite happily.

My conclusion: Verizon will get the iPhone the day after Steve Jobs decides to give Verizon the iPhone.

Apple's biggest problem, by a long shot, isn't finding new carriers -- it is making iPhones and iPads fast enough.

al_bundy
07-04-10, 10:36 PM
carriers offer a subsidy. no one is going to sell the iphone at a loss and give all the money to apple

Ted Todorov
07-06-10, 12:00 PM
carriers offer a subsidy. no one is going to sell the iphone at a loss and give all the money to apple
???? I know people suggest some bizarre things around here but who is suggesting that carriers sell the iPhone at a loss?

No one knows for sure how much Apple gets per iPhone and it is a pretty good bet that it differs from carrier to carrier. I've seen guesses of ~$625 per iPhone which would be either a $326 or $426 subsidy in AT&T's case depending on 16GB pr 32GB model. Again I emphasize this is guesswork on some analyst's part. Clearly this level of subsidy allows for plenty of carrier profit over the course of a 2 year ~$2000 contract (some are less, other are more, I seen $2K bandied about as the average).

The general assumption is that the per phone subsidy drops in non-exclussive carrier situations, although Apple has denied that during earnings calls.

In any event I am under the impression that Apple and Verizon are way more likely to disagree about control than about money.