superdeluxe

First Numbers, Sherlock Holmes' Monday Number from Box Office Guru:

11.2M Monday , down 30% from Sun

73.6M in 4 days


Awesome hold for Holmes.

No movies are opening or expanding this weekend, so it Will be Avatar vs Sherlock Holmes vs Alvin again.

Things to keep in mind: 3rd highest weekend is 45.6 million held by Spider-Man

superdeluxe

More Numbers out:

$19m AVATAR
$12m ALVIN
$11.2m SHERLOCK

http://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice

Movie theaters sure were busy on Monday. WOW.

superdeluxe

Avatar actually increased from its 1st Monday to its 2nd Monday

Patman

That is sick! Avatar's first Monday take was $16.4 million. What if Avatar brings in $80 million in its 3rd weekend? How crazy would that be?

The Antipodean

I think I'm finally going to see Avatar this weekend, so I'll add to that third week total.

The Bus

Not surprising considering this is a week more people are off.

superdeluxe

None of the box office geeks are predicting that. Most are saying 55-65 million. Which would still beat the best 3rd weekend by 10+ million.

But yes it would be crazy if it actually increased.

Many of the box office folks are saying that this will hit 500 million.

superdeluxe

me too

superdeluxe

Monday Actuals are out:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart...9-12-28&p=.htm

Avatar: $19,418,139 (-19.9%)
Alvin: $12,096,892 (-20.1%)
It's Complicated: $4,272,760 (-34.5%)

Avatar increased 400k in the actuals.

Chew

Given the budget, doesn't it need to in order to turn a profit?

superdeluxe

For those that want to follow someone that nails box-office predictions more often than not, follow this guy: Xiayun

http://piaofang.blogspot.com/

He was 90k off the monday box office number, and predicts a increase tomorrow to 20 million.

He also posts his thoughts at world of kj

superdeluxe

Its budget was 500 million? I thought it was 300 million.

Doesn't matter anyways, as it has already cleared that in combined box office (well over 625 million)

islandclaws

I read somewhere that Avatar needed to do at least $500m worldwide to be considered a success in the long run. Since it's already done $125m+ more than that in 2 weeks, I'd say things are looking good.

Pretty damn impressive to get the 2nd highest non-holiday Monday on your second non-holiday Monday.

superdeluxe

xiayun predicts a 4.0 conservative multiplier, on its way to 543 million dom.

islandclaws

I don't see it doing $543. I think it'll have a steep fall once school is back in session, but I could possibly see it just cracking $500m if it keeps up this pace.

Chew

I believe the typical thinking is "twice the budget to be considered successful" to cover distribution/advertising.

wd65733

uh, sure, whatever.


People say this about every major blockbuster with a big budget "OMG it needs to make at least *insert insane amount of $* in order to make a profit otherwise it's doomed!!!!"

drama queens.

Troy Stiffler

Nobody has a set cost for Avatar's budget. Some say 300, 400 and 500 million. If it's like the Titanic stories I've read, Fox & Cameron & Company may not have rounded up everyone's invoices yet.

islandclaws

Well, uh, whatever. I wasn't the one saying it.

Lorenzo di Bonaventura said that G.I. Joe needed to make $300m WW in order to greenlight any sequels, so, yes, some films do need to make $X or else they're considered a failure in the eyes of the studio.

superdeluxe

I thought distribution/advertising was roled into the budget.

Chew

Maybe somebody can say for sure, but I've never heard that's included in a film's budget.

islandclaws

Typically, no.

Supermallet

Advertising is always considered a separate expense. Regardless, Fox is dancing a jig over the gross of Avatar and Alvin.

P.S. My theater was absolutely packed yesterday. I love it when a movie does well, but goddamn it was hellish working last night.

RoboDad

No one is saying anything like that in this case. It isn't a chicken little cry of the film being "doomed". It is a purely mathematical exercise to estimate the point at which the film becomes profitable for the studio.

After you factor in the negative cost of the film, the revenue percentage taken by theater owners and film distributors, and promotion/marketing costs, the general rule of thumb is that a film needs to make at least twice its negative cost at the box office before the studio begins to see any real profit from the production.

If the budget of the film was $250M, then it needs to make at least $500M at the box office before it is considered financially successful (i.e., profitable).

sauce07

Well G.I. Joe did $301 million, cutting it close.

Avatar is far into the profit by this point, Fox and James Cameron can sit back and start counting their billion. Plus they still have all the other stuff like DVD's, TV rights, merchandising and broadway musicals.