Election day is Tuesday Nov. 3. There are two governor's races. Republicans are strongly favored to pick up the Virginia governor's seat along with all the down ballot races with state Attorney General Bob McDonnell.
In New Jersey, Governor Jon Corzine is tied in the polling with former state Attorney General Chris Christie. The race has gotten very nasty and a third party candidate may siphon enough votes to act as a spoiler. Obama is holding rallies for Corzine in the hopes of pushing him over the finish line.
In NY-23, the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. A strong third party candidate, Doug Hoffman looks to ride momentum and conservative anger into office.
Maine has a ballot measure on gay marriage.
There is another house race in California but that doesn't look to be as competitive.
THE NRCC and the RNC have now endorsed Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in NY-23. The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate. It's totally wild and the polling is very fluid. It should be an exciting election night.
Here is Dede Scozzafava's endorsement (http://watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/NEWS09/911019992)of the Bill Owens, the Democrat. She probably did it because Cuomo or Obama promised her something but it could also be she is pissed off the conservatives slammed her and some of the National Republicans left her for dead.
X
11-01-09, 03:51 PM
The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate."It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support," Scozzafava said in a written statement. "Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit." :hscratch:
I thought she dropped out of the race to prevent splitting the vote with Hoffman and thereby allowing the Democrat to win.
jfoobar
11-01-09, 04:55 PM
In NY-23, the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. A strong third party candidate, Doug Hoffman looks to ride momentum and conservative anger into office.
Wow, I had not heard that Scozzafava had dropped out. I came close to posting a thread about that race and how Steele and the RNC had basically turned their collective backs on her (obviously secretly hoping that Hoffman would win) because she had not been viewed as conservative enough.
Keep that steering wheel turned firmly to the right, Republicans. You may very well regret it someday soon. There are millions out there who are socially moderate/liberal but fiscally conservative who are just looking for either party to reach out to them.
JasonF
11-01-09, 04:58 PM
THE NRCC and the RNC have now endorsed Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in NY-23. The Republican candidate has endorsed the Democratic candidate. It's totally wild and the polling is very fluid. It should be an exciting election night.
Here is Dede Scozzafava's endorsement (http://watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/NEWS09/911019992)of the Bill Owens, the Democrat. She probably did it because Cuomo or Obama promised her something but it could also be she is pissed off the conservatives slammed her and some of the National Republicans left her for dead.
Are a quid pro quo and sour grapes really the only reasons you can think of that Ms. Scozzafava might endorse Mr. Owens? Might she not think Mr. Hoffman is too far to the right for the district? Might she not be concerned about Mr. Armey's dismissal, on behalf of Mr. Hoffman, of the concerns of voters in the district as "parochial"?
chowderhead
11-01-09, 05:09 PM
Are a quid pro quo and sour grapes really the only reasons you can think of that Ms. Scozzafava might endorse Mr. Owens? Might she not think Mr. Hoffman is too far to the right for the district? Might she not be concerned about Mr. Armey's dismissal, on behalf of Mr. Hoffman, of the concerns of voters in the district as "parochial"?
well, the quote X posted was her initial statement which seems pretty neutral and releases her supporters to support whoever they wanted. After having meetings and talking with various Democrats including apparently Sen. Schumer, she decides to release a more definitive letter of support for Owens. Seems pretty close to quid pro quo or sour grapes to me.
X
11-01-09, 06:03 PM
This seems to confirm that a lot of Republicans made the right decision about her.
TheBigDave
11-01-09, 07:18 PM
This seems to confirm that a lot of Republicans made the right decision about her.
:thumbsup:
No surprise. This wasn't sour grapes. I have no idea how she ended up on the Republican ticket.
chowderhead
11-01-09, 07:31 PM
:thumbsup:
No surprise. This wasn't sour grapes. I have no idea how she ended up on the Republican ticket.
Both Scozzafava and Hoffman submitted to interviews from the local county Republican committees in the area. All the Republican county chairs in the district got together and selected Scozzafava over Hoffman and others. Seems to me, this was a local decision and then national interests/groups got involved. Scozzafava turned out to be a horrible political candidate for many reasons but I thought Republicans were all about local control and local decisions.
X
11-01-09, 07:35 PM
Too bad there wasn't a primary to choose the candidate. The choices of smoke-filled rooms don't always appeal to voters so well.
JasonF
11-01-09, 08:28 PM
What makes you think the voters will prefer Mr. Hoffman? Ms. Scozzafava wasn't particular conservative by national GOP standards, but she was one of the more conservative members of the New York state assembly -- more conservative than the average Republican member of the New York state assembly. Simply put, trying to run Jesse Helms in New York is about as likely to be successful as trying to run Ted Kennedy in Mississippi. It just won't work.
Most of Scozzafava's voters don't like Owens or Hoffman, but they dislike Hoffman more than they dislike Owens.
What makes you think the voters will prefer Mr. Hoffman?If you're responding to me, where did I say Hoffman would have been the one who won the primary? A primary would most likely have sorted this out in the first place, whichever one won.
DeputyDave
11-02-09, 12:00 AM
I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).
I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.
What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.
Quack
11-02-09, 12:03 AM
I'll be covering the 23rd very closely as I'll be directing the news across all of upstate on election night for my station(s), Capital News 9 and News 10 Now.....long night in store I'm sure!
JasonF
11-02-09, 02:18 AM
I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).
I'll pre-spin it for you.
In Virginia, the Democrats nominated an idiot. Frankly, I will be shocked if Deeds manages to defeat McDonnell. Which isn't to say McDonnell wouldn't do well against a stronger Democrat -- he might have; I just don't know -- but the fact is, he's had it in the bag for months.
In New Jersey, both Corzine and Christie are less popular than syphillis. Daggett might be a factor, but the bottom line is that New Jerseyians will have to decide whether they hate Corzine enough to take a chance on Christie, who they apparently hate even more.
New York 23 is a mess. Scozzafava would have won easily in a two-candidate race. It's a district that's gone Republican for well over a century, and is what passes for conservative in the northeast. Now that it's Owens and Hoffman, who knows what will happen.
I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.
What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.
Go ahead and do that. Push Charlie Crist out of the party in favor of Marco Rubio, or make Mark Kirk tack so far to the right that his constituents no longer recognize him -- it will make it that much easier for Democrats to pick up those seats. And there's your positive spin on a Hoffman victory in New York 23 -- it reinforces the worst elements of the GOP and encourages the ongoing intraparty civil war.
kvrdave
11-02-09, 02:45 AM
I can't imagine how Corzine could get re-elected. I don't know anything about Christie, but I would rather be in California's fiscal mess than have to live in New Jersey. Don't they have something like a 10% income tax on gross wages and sky high property taxes, and a sales tax to boot? I would think that many middle class people end up paying well over 60% in taxes, social security, medicare, etc. Why would anyone want to live like that?
The only appeal I could ever see with NJ is that they aren't NY and if you wanted a cheaper life, you had to "pay" for it by living in NJ, but I don't think it is cheaper tax wise anymore.
DeputyDave
11-02-09, 05:48 AM
Keep that steering wheel turned firmly to the right, Republicans. You may very well regret it someday soon. There are millions out there who are socially moderate/liberal but fiscally conservative who are just looking for either party to reach out to them.
I believe the exact opposite. What the party does not need are more moderates. A Republican with true conservative values and beliefs (and most importantly the ability to express them) could electrify the party and draw in voters who were made to realize they really were conservative by Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et all.
The last thing I want is another McCain or Bush. What we need is someone who can inspire like Reagan did:
I can't wait to hear the spin if all three races swing towards the Republicans (or Conservatives).
I personally hate the thought that a conservative 3rd part may spring up. If it actually had a chance of being a viable party I would change my mind (I am a conservative, NOT a Republican after all), but all I think it will end up doing is pulling votes from the GOP and costing elections.
What needs to happen is what the ultra leftist, statist liberals did, reform the existing party. More real conservatives need to come forward and drive the GOP as far to the right as that car can go.
IMO the only difference between big government liberals and big government conservatives is where and to whom the money goes.
JOE29
11-02-09, 08:50 AM
I can't imagine how Corzine could get re-elected. I don't know anything about Christie, but I would rather be in California's fiscal mess than have to live in New Jersey. Don't they have something like a 10% income tax on gross wages and sky high property taxes, and a sales tax to boot? I would think that many middle class people end up paying well over 60% in taxes, social security, medicare, etc. Why would anyone want to live like that?
The only appeal I could ever see with NJ is that they aren't NY and if you wanted a cheaper life, you had to "pay" for it by living in NJ, but I don't think it is cheaper tax wise anymore.
I hear you, but a lot of people LIKE higher taxes. They think higher taxes will equal more and better services from the government. I am not one of those who think that but, I have had arguments with other people who think that way. Plus other people will vote D, just because of the D. This is true for a lot of government workers. I think that if Hitler was running for governor under D, they would vote for him because of the D after his name. ( I'm not saying Corzine is Hitler, he's not just to be clear. )
JasonF
11-02-09, 08:55 AM
"Jon Corzine: He's Not Hitler" would have been a hell of a campaign slogan.
classicman2
11-02-09, 09:04 AM
I hear you, but a lot of people LIKE higher taxes. T
I think a lot of people like higher taxes as long as it is somebody else who are paying those higher taxes.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 09:10 AM
Congratulations to Obama, the Democratic Party, and Democrats in general - you've convinced me to vote for a Republican in a general election for the first time since 1997.
I can't wait to see the numbers from the Northern VA suburbs. It should be drastically different than last November. The love affair is over here.
classicman2
11-02-09, 09:37 AM
The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.
X
11-02-09, 10:29 AM
"Jon Corzine: He's Not Hitler" would have been a hell of a campaign slogan.Corzine is pretty much using "Jon Corzine: He's Not Fat" for his slogan.
chowderhead
11-02-09, 10:49 AM
Corzine is pretty much using "Jon Corzine: He's Not Fat" for his slogan.
And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine. In the vast majority of elections, you want the election to be about the other guy.
X
11-02-09, 10:55 AM
And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine. Since it's an election, that seems to be a legitimate issue.
Brian Shannon
11-02-09, 10:56 AM
Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 10:56 AM
And Chris Christie is running on he is not Corzine. In the vast majority of elections, you want the election to be about the other guy.
It's usually a winning strategy if the incumbent isn't all that popular.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 10:58 AM
Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.
It's been insane. I've been getting about 3-4 calls per day over the last couple months. Not that it matters - I never answer my home phone (I should probably just get rid of it). Far more calls than I got last year for a presidential election in a toss-up state.
I wonder if the campaigns have access to past primary elections you cast votes in (not the actual vote, but which primary you voted in)....because if you were to see my profile, you'd think I'm the prototype toss-up independent since I have voted in several GOP primaries and several Democrat primaries over the last decade.
JasonF
11-02-09, 11:20 AM
The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.
Particularly in the South. If you look at the crosstabs on these approval polls, the President is relatively unpopular in the South and relatively popular everywhere else -- particularly the Northeast.
It's also worth noting that his "horrific" approval ratings are roughly comparable to the percentage of the popular vote he got.
Venusian
11-02-09, 11:22 AM
Atlanta could possibly (probably) elect their first white mayor in quite some time. Not sure why race should matter but it does to many
Red Dog
11-02-09, 11:24 AM
Atlanta could possibly (probably) elect their first white mayor in quite some time. Not sure why race should matter but it does to many
In addition to the Northern VA numbers, I'm curious to see what the black turnout here will be compared to last year. They're likely staying at home in droves.
kvrdave
11-02-09, 12:09 PM
In WA, our only real issue this year is the "everything but marriage" issue. I expect it will pass.
classicman2
11-02-09, 12:20 PM
The last poll I saw showed that Obama's rating among independents had declined - 45% approved; 47%disapproved.
Some would argue that number was the most important number if the president wants a second term.
Of course, things can (and probably will) change a bunch between now and 2012.
Artman
11-02-09, 12:22 PM
In WA, our only real issue this year is the "everything but marriage" issue. I expect it will pass.
Yeah, also can't wait to see 1033 go down in flames... King County Exec is a hot one, but I'm in Snohomish...
JOE29
11-02-09, 01:01 PM
Glad it is almost here, I can plug my phone back in on Wednesday. I just hope they clean up all the trash on my local roads but history tells me that they wont bother.
I know. It makes me feel very special to know that they love me so much to call me everyday and stuff my mailbox with their ads.
But then fast forward to Wednesday and it's like- where the hell did everybody go? What did I do that was so wrong for everybody to leave me?
kvrdave
11-02-09, 01:34 PM
Yeah, also can't wait to see 1033 go down in flames... King County Exec is a hot one, but I'm in Snohomish...
It probably will, but I'd love to see it pass.
X
11-02-09, 01:51 PM
Latest polling on NY 23...
Polls: Doug Hoffman leads in New York 23
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has taken the lead over Democrat Bill Owens according to the two most recent public polls in Tuesday’s closely-watched New York special election, continuing his month-long surge in the contentious House contest.
But the polls differ on the size of Hoffman’s lead, and on whether Republican Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens Sunday could push him over the top in the final 24 hours.
Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out of the race and endorsed Owens the next day. The state assemblywoman’s name, however, will remain on the ballot.
A Siena Research Institute poll, conducted on Sunday, shows Hoffman emerging as the frontrunner in the wake of Scozzafava’s withdrawal, but Owens remains within striking distance. Hoffman leads Owens by five points, 41 to 36 percent with six percent going to Scozzafava. But the number of undecided voters doubled from nine percent in last week’s survey to 18 percent, giving Owens the opportunity to win over disaffected Scozzafava supporters.
In Scozzafava’s regional base in St. Lawrence, Jefferson and Lewis counties, where she led in polls throughout the campaign, Hoffman is now tied with Owens at 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided.
“The majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Whichever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”
Inside the numbers, there’s a lot for Hoffman to be encouraged about. He is the only candidate of the three to have a net favorable rating, with 47 percent of districtwide voters viewing him favorably, while only 33 percent view him unfavorably. For the first time in the Siena poll, Owens has a net unfavorable rating, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.
Hoffman, however, has lost ground with independent voters since last week’s Siena survey, and they now favor Owens 43 to 37 percent after leaning towards Hoffman in last week’s survey. But the third-party candidate has consolidated his support among Republicans, winning 63 percent of GOP voters.
A poll released Sunday evening by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is even more encouraging for Hoffman, showing him with a commanding 17-point lead over Owens, 51 to 34 percent with Scozzafava retaining 13 percent. The poll, which surveyed 1,747 likely voters on October 31 and November 1—the most tumultuous period of the campaign—reported its findings in three stages: before Scozzafava withdrew from the race Saturday, after she withdrew but before she endorsed Owens, and after her Owens endorsement Sunday.
The PPP poll found Owens making up little ground, even after winning Scozzafava’s endorsement. Before she suspended her campaign, Hoffman led Owens by 18 points, and then by 14 points after she threw her support to the Democrat.
According to PPP, Hoffman holds large leads among both Republicans and independents: 71 percent of Republicans are backing him, and he holds a 52 to 30 percent lead over Owens among Independents.
One of the biggest differences between the two polls is the ideological makeup of the respondents. In its screen of likely voters, PPP expects next Tuesday’s electorate will be dominated by conservatives. President Obama only held a 39 percent approval rating among all respondents, with likely voters saying they voted for John McCain 51 to 43 percent. In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won the district with 52 percent of the vote.
By contrast, Obama holds a strong 59 percent districtwide approval rating in the Siena survey, with Republicans giving him a 40 percent approval rating.
I believe the exact opposite. What the party does not need are more moderates. A Republican with true conservative values and beliefs (and most importantly the ability to express them) could electrify the party and draw in voters who were made to realize they really were conservative by Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et all.
Here's a couple questions for you. Can the same kind of Republican win in Mississippi and Massachusetts? Is it a good idea to alienate, abuse, and abandon loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?
I find this all incredibly insane, but the Republicans seem to want to become a rump party of the South, so hey, whatever.
Dr Mabuse
11-02-09, 01:58 PM
Scozzafava being on the ticket was apparently a bit of 'insider' stuff in NY politics.
I've seen a few articles, and opinions, about how that whole thing played out.
Then she comes out and supports the Dem?
Something stinks with that.
X
11-02-09, 02:01 PM
... loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:06 PM
The 'love affair' seems to be waning in a number of areas.
I'll post the results from Loudoun and Prince William counties when they are posted. That's your bellweather. They decide elections in VA. To win a statewide VA election, one must get to 50% in these 2 counties - at least it's been that way in 6 major (Prez/Gov/Sen) statewide elections since 2002. These are basically independents - solidly middle to upper-middle class - generally open-minded on social issues. I tend to think many got caught up in Obamania last year. If they back McDonnell several pts over 50, who's quite conservative socially, that speaks volumes to me.
I'll also post Fairfax County results which is more liberal (but not as liberal as Arlington or Alexandria). If McDonnell does better than 45% there, that would be big. For frame of reference, the best a Republican has done in the previous 6 elections there is Bush-2004 with 46%. It's more liberal now than it was in '04.
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:06 PM
Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?
Oh come on. Scozzafava's voting record was actually a bit more conservative than other NY Republicans. She certainly was no RINO, at least by the standards of the NY Republican Party (who, lest we forget, initially wanted her to run in the election before the district was targeted for ideological cleansing).
jfoobar
11-02-09, 02:08 PM
Here's a couple questions for you. Can the same kind of Republican win in Mississippi and Massachusetts? Is it a good idea to alienate, abuse, and abandon loyal Republicans like Scozzafava?
I find this all incredibly insane, but the Republicans seem to want to become a rump party of the South, so hey, whatever.
Bingo. They can try and cash in in the short term on widespread angst over perceptions of how much money the Obama administration is spending and that will undoubtedly bear fruit, in the short term. However, the political ideals represented by people like Hoffman and the teabaggin' "base" do not represent a massive swath of the voting public.
X
11-02-09, 02:09 PM
Oh come on. Scozzafava's voting record was actually a bit more conservative than other NY Republicans. She certainly was no RINO, at least by the standards of the NY Republican Party (who, lest we forget, initially wanted her to run in the election before the district was targeted for ideological cleansing).I was referring to how they behaved after things didn't go their way.
I think "loyal" isn't the proper adjective to use for someone who turns that way.
chowderhead
11-02-09, 02:11 PM
Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?
shouldn't National Republicans have supported the Republican on the ticket or kept their mouths shut? It was the local Republican chairs who selected the nominee. Republicans are always talking about local and state control.
Edit: Siena polling has it 41% Hoffman, 36% Owens and 6% Scozzafava with 18% undecided.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:12 PM
Loyal? Kind of like how Benedict Arnold was loyal?
:lol:
X
11-02-09, 02:15 PM
shouldn't National Republicans have supported the Republican on the ticket or kept their mouths shut? It was the local Republican chairs who selected the nominee.As I said before, this problem probably wouldn't have been a problem if a primary had decided the nominee.
But I also think many Republicans are finding that supporting Republicans just because they have that label isn't a winning strategy. Many seem to be migrating to choosing candidates based on the candidate's principles which have been found to be sorely lacking in recent Republicans. Maybe that's an effort to scare some principles into currently elected Republicans and get people actually motivated to vote for them.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:17 PM
But I also think many Republicans are finding that supporting Republicans just because they have that label isn't a winning strategy. Many seem to be migrating to choosing candidates based on the candidate's principles which have been found to be sorely lacking in recent Republicans. Maybe that's an effort to scare some principles into currently elected Republicans and get people actually motivated to vote for them.
I think "not being the Democrat" is a winning strategy in VA this year. Granted, this is a purple state whereas NY is blue.
X
11-02-09, 02:19 PM
I think "not being the Democrat" is a winning strategy in VA this year. Granted, this is a purple state whereas NY is blue.Sounds like there are a lot of regretful voters in VA this year.
Do you know Obama's current approval/disapproval in VA?
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:20 PM
I was referring to how they behaved after things didn't go their way.
I think "loyal" isn't the proper adjective to use for someone who turns that way.
And by "go their way", you mean when the national committee meddled in the local party's affairs because they felt that Scozzafava wasn't ideologically pure, correct?
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:22 PM
Sounds like there are a lot of regretful voters in VA this year.
Do you know Obama's current approval/disapproval in VA?
I have no idea but the Gov election should basically reflect it.
chowderhead
11-02-09, 02:22 PM
those are the rules in NY. I didn't hear anybody complaining when other Republican county chairs selected conservative Jim Tedisco in NY-23. I would welcome more Doug Hoffman, Steve Laffey, Andrew Harris, Pat Toomey, Tim Walberg and other CfG challenges. Democrats are well known for circular firing squads ... why not continue the purge among Republicans?
Edit
Pharoh
11-02-09, 02:23 PM
As I said before, this problem probably wouldn't have been a problem if a primary had decided the nominee.
But I also think many Republicans are finding that supporting Republicans just because they have that label isn't a winning strategy. Many seem to be migrating to choosing candidates based on the candidate's principles which have been found to be sorely lacking in recent Republicans. Maybe that's an effort to scare some principles into currently elected Republicans and get people actually motivated to vote for them.
As evidenced by the PPP poll, in which Mr. Hoffman had an 18-point lead before the news broke that Ms. Scozzafava was exiting the race. Local Republican voters, far more energized by the candidacy of Mr. Hoffman, are showing their support. Shouldn't they, locally, be the ones to decide?
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:23 PM
How good could this Scozza person have been in a 1-1 race if she's only polling 6% in a 3-way race? Sounds like she would have been routed. I don't put much stock in polls but 6% is 6%. Sounds to me like the party officials were idiots in nominating her.
X
11-02-09, 02:28 PM
How good could this Scozza person have been in a 1-1 race if she's only polling 6% in a 3-way race? Sounds like she would have been routed. I don't put much stock in polls but 6% is 6%. Sounds to me like the party officials were idiots in nominating her.Well, you know why there was an opening there in the first place, don't you? And how quickly the White House got Scozzafava to endorse the Democrat.
Sounds suspicious all around.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:29 PM
Well, you know why there was an opening there in the first place, don't you? And how quickly the White House got Scozzafava to endorse the Democrat.
Sounds suspicious all around.
Actually I don't. I've turned my political radar off for several months.
Dr Mabuse
11-02-09, 02:30 PM
How good could this Scozza person have been in a 1-1 race if she's only polling 6% in a 3-way race? Sounds like she would have been routed. I don't put much stock in polls but 6% is 6%. Sounds to me like the party officials were idiots in nominating her.
The way people who are writing about it put it, she was a 'no win' candidate who pretended to be republican to kind of guarantee the Democrat won. Which is something that happens in NY, or that NY politics is known for? Is the way it's been presented by several articles and such I've read. I don't know enough about that form an opinion.
The conservative guy running anyway threw that 'insider' stuff off.
X
11-02-09, 02:31 PM
Actually I don't. I've turned my political radar off for several months.http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1902377,00.html
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:33 PM
The way people who are writing about it put it, she was a 'no win' candidate who pretended to be republican to kind of guarantee the Democrat won. Which is something that happens in NY, or that NY politics is known for? Is the way it's been presented by several articles and such I've read. I don't know enough about that form an opinion.
The conservative guy running anyway threw that 'insider' stuff off.
It's a strategy that works in NYC. If you run as the Republican you only have to beat one person.
chowderhead
11-02-09, 02:37 PM
The way people who are writing about it put it, she was a 'no win' candidate who pretended to be republican to kind of guarantee the Democrat won. Which is something that happens in NY, or that NY politics is known for? Is the way it's been presented by several articles and such I've read. I don't know enough about that form an opinion.
The conservative guy running anyway threw that 'insider' stuff off.
Teabag or tinfoil?
Dede Scozzafava has been elected to the NY Assembly as a Republican since 1998. Yeah, I sure she pretended to be a Republican for over 10 years just so she could run as a stealth Democrat and siphon over Republican votes because she knew in 11 years, McHugh would resign to be Obama's Sec. of the Army.
Edit: That 6% is after she dropped out.
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:39 PM
How good could this Scozza person have been in a 1-1 race if she's only polling 6% in a 3-way race? Sounds like she would have been routed.
You're insane if you think NY-23 would have gone Democratic. That's not the issue here.
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:40 PM
Teabag or tinfoil?
Dede Scozzafava has been elected to the NY Assembly as a Republican since 1998. Yeah, I sure she pretended to be a Republican for over 10 years just so she could run as a stealth Democrat and siphon over Republican votes because she knew in 11 years, McHugh would resign to be Obama's Sec. of the Army.
Edit: That 6% is after she dropped out.
You really have to shake your head and wonder about people that spout that kind of nonsense. And that is exactly why the Republicans are in the mess that they're in.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:41 PM
You're insane if you think NY-23 would have gone Democratic. That's not the issue here.
I don't know anything about the district, but if a major party candidate is only polling 6% in a 3-way race, that's beyond awful - I don't care what district it is. If she was at 20-30%, okay I could buy that she'd have a chance in a 2-way race. Why should I believe such a person is capable of winning 50% of the vote in a 2-way race?
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:43 PM
I don't know anything about the district, but if a major party candidate is only polling 6% in a 3-way race, that's awful - I don't care what district it is. If she was at 20-30%, okay I could buy it. Why should I believe such a person is capable of winning 50% of the vote in a 2-way race?
As chowerhead pointed out, that 6% was after she dropped out of the race.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:44 PM
As chowerhead pointed out, that 6% was after she dropped out of the race.
What was she polling before?
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 02:49 PM
What was she polling before?
I don't feel like looking up exact numbers, but around 30%. Slightly below Owens and ahead of Hoffman.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 02:53 PM
I don't feel like looking up exact numbers, but around 30%. Slightly below Owens and ahead of Hoffman.
Ok. That certainly changes my assessment.
That being said, it looks like there is a sizeable number of people in that district who are sick of the party politics and party attempts (from both sides) to appeal to the least common denominator and couldn't care less if their vote means the GOP loses the seat.
Pharoh
11-02-09, 03:03 PM
How good could this Scozza person have been in a 1-1 race if she's only polling 6% in a 3-way race? Sounds like she would have been routed. I don't put much stock in polls but 6% is 6%. Sounds to me like the party officials were idiots in nominating her.
The thought obviously was that it is a Republican district, as JasonF pointed out earlier, so she would have won regardless.
I personally don't agree. It was a district that President Obama won by 5-points back in 2008, and while his approval rating is currently under 40% in the district, it is because of these dissatisfied voters that Mr. Hoffman will likely win. I don't think they would have voted in anywhere near the same numbers for Ms. Scozzafava.
Pharoh
11-02-09, 03:11 PM
Ok. That certainly changes my assessment.
That being said, it looks like there is a sizeable number of people in that district who are sick of the party politics and party attempts (from both sides) to appeal to the least common denominator and couldn't care less if their vote means the GOP loses the seat.
Of relatively recent polling, she had a high of 35% and a low of 20%, with 30% exactly being the last poll I saw.
However, she was under 50% favourable amongst Republicans in her district and was having huge problems raising monies.
The situation of the national party stepping in didn't take place in a vacuum.
JasonF
11-02-09, 03:23 PM
I'm curious to know what kind of GOTV Mr. Hoffman will have. There's onbviously a local Republican party aparatus in the district -- will it be available to Mr. Hoffman? How strong is the Democratic party apparatus in this district? Given the historically low turnout in special elections, Mr. Hoffman could be in serious trouble if the local Republicans don't put their weight behind him over the next 36 hours.
TheBigDave
11-02-09, 03:33 PM
I don't feel like looking up exact numbers, but around 30%. Slightly below Owens and ahead of Hoffman.
She was around 30% a couple weeks ago. But for the past week or two it's been a 2-man race between Owens and Hoffman. She was around 20% last week with the other two around 30%-35% each.
The latest poll I saw had her at %20 and Owens and Hoffman with the margin of each other around 30%, that was just before she dropped. I wouldn't read too much into the race though. The GOP candidate ran a horrible campaign, wasn't selected by the voters and it's a conservative district, so I don't see the events of this race reflecting much on the national party. Sure, you can say the Palin and other conservative endorsements of Hoffman indicate the party is being driven to the right or whatever, but then the DailyKos founder endorsed the GOP candidate over the Dem and then the GOP candidate endorsed the Dem candidate. If anything the endorsements just show how atypical this race is.
Regarding the Maine gay marriage initiative, Question 1. As background, in May the Governor signed a law allowing gay marriage in Maine, this was after several ballot measures narrowly failed over the years. Opponents quickly submitted enough signatures to put a "people's veto" on the ballot and so the law will not go into effect until after the voter's approve it by not passing the veto.
All the major newspapers have opposed the initiative. The anti-GM side has had a large TV campaign that almost exclusively talks about teaching homosexuality/GM in schools. The pro-GM has a counter-campaign that dismisses that as a non-issue and promotes the measure as non-discriminatory. The pro-GM campaign funds are almost twice the anti-GM funds.
Polling is slightly to the anti-GM side, but the major factor in this off-election year will be turn out. I have a feeling it will not pass (which means the law will go into effect), but who really knows what side is more motivated.
The other big init on the ballot is TABOR 2. TABOR (tax payer bill of rights) limits how the state and local gov can increase taxes. It was narrowly defeated in 2006. As in 2006 the opponents of this measure are basically anyone who gets money from the state and they are outspending the TABOR supporters 8 to 1. As with Q1 polls are split and turnout will be the key. I think TABOR probably has a better chance than 2006. The pro-TABOR base is highly motivated and will probably turn out. The huge spending advantage the anti-TABOR side has is more effective with a large turnout.
DeputyDave
11-02-09, 05:15 PM
IMO the only difference between big government liberals and big government conservatives is where and to whom the money goes.
Which is why I said "real conservatives".
Venusian
11-02-09, 05:39 PM
already talking fraud in Jersey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703932904574511612622116146.html
jfoobar
11-02-09, 05:57 PM
Of relatively recent polling, she had a high of 35% and a low of 20%, with 30% exactly being the last poll I saw.
However, she was under 50% favourable amongst Republicans in her district and was having huge problems raising monies.
A situation documented weeks ago and, by some anyway, largely blamed on lack of support by the RNC and other sources of assistance that would normally be available to the chosen Republican candidate in a Congressional race.
Yeah, she was a doofus of a candidate and probably not a very good independent fund raiser but I also find it difficult to believe that she would not have won with full GOP support.
crazyronin
11-02-09, 06:42 PM
The latest poll I saw had her at %20 and Owens and Hoffman with the margin of each other around 30%, that was just before she dropped. I wouldn't read too much into the race though. The GOP candidate ran a horrible campaign, wasn't selected by the voters and it's a conservative district, so I don't see the events of this race reflecting much on the national party. Sure, you can say the Palin and other conservative endorsements of Hoffman indicate the party is being driven to the right or whatever, but then the DailyKos founder endorsed the GOP candidate over the Dem and then the GOP candidate endorsed the Dem candidate. If anything the endorsements just show how atypical this race is.
Regarding the Maine gay marriage initiative, Question 1. As background, in May the Governor signed a law allowing gay marriage in Maine, this was after several ballot measures narrowly failed over the years. Opponents quickly submitted enough signatures to put a "people's veto" on the ballot and so the law will not go into effect until after the voter's approve it by not passing the veto.
All the major newspapers have opposed the initiative. The anti-GM side has had a large TV campaign that almost exclusively talks about teaching homosexuality/GM in schools. The pro-GM has a counter-campaign that dismisses that as a non-issue and promotes the measure as non-discriminatory. The pro-GM campaign funds are almost twice the anti-GM funds.
Polling is slightly to the anti-GM side, but the major factor in this off-election year will be turn out. I have a feeling it will not pass (which means the law will go into effect), but who really knows what side is more motivated.
The other big init on the ballot is TABOR 2. TABOR (tax payer bill of rights) limits how the state and local gov can increase taxes. It was narrowly defeated in 2006. As in 2006 the opponents of this measure are basically anyone who gets money from the state and they are outspending the TABOR supporters 8 to 1. As with Q1 polls are split and turnout will be the key. I think TABOR probably has a better chance than 2006. The pro-TABOR base is highly motivated and will probably turn out. The huge spending advantage the anti-TABOR side has is more effective with a large turnout.
What's pissing me off even more about local politics is how that fucking cockbiter, Matt Dunlap, thinks he's not obligated to fulfill his Constitutional duties.
You have 30 days to verify signatures, Mr. Secretary. Shit or get off the pot.
kvrdave
11-02-09, 06:53 PM
A situation documented weeks ago and, by some anyway, largely blamed on lack of support by the RNC and other sources of assistance that would normally be available to the chosen Republican candidate in a Congressional race.
Yeah, she was a doofus of a candidate and probably not a very good independent fund raiser but I also find it difficult to believe that she would not have won with full GOP support.
I haven't followed this at all. Is there any good read about the how/why she was selected? It seems hard to imagine given all that has been said about her.
Rare Breed22
11-02-09, 07:35 PM
In addition to the Northern VA numbers, I'm curious to see what the black turnout here will be compared to last year. They're likely staying at home in droves.
Actually from some of the reports I've seen, as well as things that I've heard from various blacks who supported him in the last election, the turn out may be quite low. It seems that it's not just white voters who have 'buyers remorse' many black voters also seem to have it as well when it comes to Obama ( mainly due to lack of job creation ).
What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.
Tracer Bullet
11-02-09, 07:42 PM
What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.
Mmhmm. Yeah. That'll happen.
JasonF
11-02-09, 07:49 PM
What's really fascinating is there seems to be a kind of 'quite' backlash against Obama growing among blacks that may very well spill over to the midterm elections in 2010, and grow enough by 2012 ( if the economy remains weak ) that you may see him challenged within his own party.
That is sheer fantasy. Take a look at the crosstabs on any Obama approval poll that breaks respondents down by race.
Deeds's problem vis-a-vis Obama is that 1) Obama brought many voters to the polls who won't necessarily show up when Obama is not on the ballot, and 2) Deeds hasn't done a very good job of aligning himself with Obama, which makes Obama supporters even less likely to vote for him (other voters may, of course, be more likely to vote for Deeds as a result).
I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.
Rare Breed22
11-02-09, 07:56 PM
Mmhmm. Yeah. That'll happen.
I'm not saying it's destined to happen or anything but if job growth is still sluggish by 2012, and say someone with the charisma of a Bill Clinton comes along and looks as if he or 'She' has a shot of winning you may very well see a shift.
Remember it wasn't that long ago that it was believed that the only way a black man could ever get elected president would be if he ran as conservative republican or that no one could ever beat the famous 'Clinton political machine'.
Red Dog
11-02-09, 08:14 PM
I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.
I think it's pretty silly to believe that it isn't a referendum on Obama in the critical counties I mentioned. Hell, look at me. Your guy and party has pissed me off so much that it's driven me to vote for a Republican which hasn't happened in over a decade. Now he didn't win my vote last year, but neither did his competition.
As for 2010, sure, a lot can happen between now and then, but I guarantee you if Democrats were to sweep these races, there would be a sentiment from folks like yourself that it is a good harbinger.
kvrdave
11-02-09, 08:26 PM
I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.
Escpecially when it looks like it would not be a good referrendum. :)
classicman2
11-02-09, 09:14 PM
I think the idea that any of tomorrow's races can be read as a referrendum on the Obama administration or a harbinger of 2010 is pretty silly.
Did you believe the off-year elections held when George W. Bush was president - many won by the Democrats - to be a harbinger?
btw: Red Dog is correct.
Artman
11-03-09, 01:43 AM
I did my moderate voting tonight :) I just can't be a team player... I cannot convince myself that one party is always right and the other is always wrong. How can anyone think like that?
jfoobar
11-03-09, 07:19 AM
I did my moderate voting tonight :) I just can't be a team player... I cannot convince myself that one party is always right and the other is always wrong. How can anyone think like that?
With these two parties? I would add a few more question marks to the end of your question so as to imply more incredulity.
JasonF
11-03-09, 09:01 AM
I don't think the Democrats are always right. Sometimes they are and sometimes they aren't.
The Republicans, however, are always wrong. ;)
Venusian
11-03-09, 09:05 AM
Voted this morning. Bridge was still out from the floods so I had to drive around a detour. I was the 15th voter about an hour and half into the polls being open. Only mayor and city council seat were on the ballot so I'm guessing a really low turnout
tcoursen
11-03-09, 10:06 AM
I really really hope NJ voters wake up and kick Corzine out of office. He has been such a horrible horrible govenor. Christie will be bad if he wins, but I don't think he will be as bad as Corzine. I just hope in 4 years the state of NJ finally gets somebody they can vote FOR instead of AGAINST, because that seems to be all this election is about.
Tracer Bullet
11-03-09, 10:22 AM
I don't think I'm voting today. I can't take this shit anymore. And the big race here is between an incompetent and a oligarch, and I can't bring myself to vote for either one of them.
America! Fuck yeah!
Red Dog
11-03-09, 12:28 PM
Here's how I'm voting in VA today. Republicans for Gov and Lt Gov. The Democrat for A.G. (I don't want the Republican anywhere near law enforcement, let alone be in charge of it). In my meaningless state rep race (I live in the People's Republic of Arlington), the sure-loser Republican.....seems to have a good libertarian streak. For county board (also meaningless), the Democrat - he graduated from my alma mater. I'll abstain on school board (only one person running anyhow).
I'll bat .600.
jfoobar
11-03-09, 12:37 PM
The Democrat for A.G. (I don't want the Republican anywhere near law enforcement, let alone be in charge of it).
But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots? :)
Shannon, OTOH, looks like he is 25 (he's actually 38).
wishbone
11-03-09, 12:40 PM
My county only has a referendum to vote on and that is to approve bonds to build a new hospital.Even if they don’t presume Wishard wants a tax increase, voters still might conclude that they’ll eventually be asked to cover payment on Wishard’s bonds. Cost overruns on recent public projects, such as the Central Library renovation and Lucas Oil Stadium, have soured the mood for further government spending. link (http://www.ibj.com/wishard-hopes-to-overcome-taxpayer-skepticism-in-referendum/PARAMS/article/10874)
Which is why I voted no but the referendum will likely pass.
JOE29
11-03-09, 12:49 PM
I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.
Tracer Bullet
11-03-09, 01:19 PM
I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.
But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots? :)
Shannon, OTOH, looks like he is 25 (he's actually 38).
I did see that. Even more motivation to vote against him. :lol:
Brian Shannon
11-03-09, 02:19 PM
I don't think I'm voting today. I can't take this shit anymore. And the big race here is between an incompetent and a oligarch, and I can't bring myself to vote for either one of them.
America! Fuck yeah!
But but but . . . this is what makes America great! :sarcasm: It is your civic duty to vote :rolleyes: I can't wait to go to the polls and be bombarded with rhetoric, scads of paper litter and signs accusing everyone running of lying and deceit!
And let's make sure we foist our political system on other unsuspecting countries around the globe! :clap:
But Cuccinelli has the FOP endorsement! Didn't you see the trio of stern-looking sheriffs on those TV spots?
Those three guys were laughable! rotfl
I feel the same way, pathetic waste of time and nothing will be different one day, week or year from now. That includes the signs that will be left to rot all over the county.
tcoursen
11-03-09, 02:23 PM
I just voted this morning in NJ. I was voting independant, but then last night it came out that the Democrats were helping the Independant with his campaign, so I switched at the last moment this morning and voted Republican.
I really don't like any of these people but with the Dems helping out the Independant I had to vote the other way.
I wish that story had come out a week ago rather than last minute. On the radio they were saying it was illegal for one campaign to fund another for the purposes of taking votes away from another candidate, which is exactly what this was. Corzine wasn't getting anywhere with his own adds and on his own record, so he had to fund the ind. candidate Dagget. I believe after the election once more of the final accounting is done on the campaigns more evidence of this is going to come out.
I also don't really like that in NJ this week is the teachers convention, so every teacher is off of work today and able to go vote, and they will all vote for Corzine. Very convient that that is scheduled for election day. The actual convention doesn't start till tomorrow, so why did they need off yesterday and today??????
Finally, they should make it illegal for state workers unions to support and endorse candidates. Private unions, like auto workers, sure fine, but state workers, no way. So he panders to them to get their support, but then when he becomes gov. he is supposed to now switch gears and negotiate their contracts ?????? That should be a conflict of interest shouldn't it be???
spainlinx0
11-03-09, 02:46 PM
Corzine has taken over Hulu. Every show I watch has an anti-Christie ad.
BKenn01
11-03-09, 05:48 PM
Here's how I'm voting in VA today. Republicans for Gov and Lt Gov. The Democrat for A.G. (I don't want the Republican anywhere near law enforcement, let alone be in charge of it). In my meaningless state rep race (I live in the People's Republic of Arlington), the sure-loser Republican.....seems to have a good libertarian streak. For county board (also meaningless), the Democrat - he graduated from my alma mater. I'll abstain on school board (only one person running anyhow).
I'll bat .600.
Ok, I know this is a libertarian thing and I have quite a few problems with some Republican philosiphy on legal matters, but I really dont see the Democrats as any better or trustwothy on law enforcement. Why would you trust a Democrat more?
Jason
11-03-09, 07:29 PM
Ok, I know this is a libertarian thing and I have quite a few problems with some Republican philosiphy on legal matters, but I really dont see the Democrats as any better or trustwothy on law enforcement. Why would you trust a Democrat more?
Probably because they might not have the hard-on for the drug war that republicans all seem to have.
X
11-03-09, 07:43 PM
Hmm... I wonder which "Republican" has been very anti-drug and created the office of Drug Czar"?
dick_grayson
11-03-09, 08:04 PM
Hmm... I wonder which "Republican" has been very anti-drug and created the office of Drug Czar"?
in Virginia?
crazyronin
11-03-09, 08:07 PM
Probably because they might not have the hard-on for the drug war that republicans all seem to have.
"Apparently I'm a Republican because my hard-on for the drug war is this big."
RoyalTea
11-03-09, 08:34 PM
Corzine has taken over Hulu. Every show I watch has an anti-Christie ad.
I haven't seen a single Corzine ad that explains why I should vote for Corzine.
tommy28
11-03-09, 08:55 PM
v. early......
Christie , Chris GOP 151,394 51%
Corzine , Jon (i) Dem 124,952 42%
the big train
11-03-09, 08:59 PM
You guys must really hate Corzine if you're going to put up with a guy named Chris Christie.
Sean O'Hara
11-03-09, 09:27 PM
You guys must really hate Corzine if you're going to put up with a guy named Chris Christie.
Guy who sounds like an analgesic cream, or a guy who sounds like a really lame new wave band ... tough call.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 10:12 PM
The AP is saying that Christie has won the election in NJ.
And in a surprise, the NY Mayoral race is now too close to call:
Mayor New York City
3530 of 6110 Precincts Reporting
NAME VOTES Pct.
William Thompson ((D)) 292,301 48%
Michael Bloomberg ((I)) 297,960 49%
BigDaddy
11-03-09, 10:20 PM
That Mayor race is crazy. I had no idea it was that close.
wildcatlh
11-03-09, 10:28 PM
FOX and CNN have also called NJ for Christie. I'm genuinely surprised.
BKenn01
11-03-09, 10:34 PM
What about the house race? The Dems are ahead with over 60k votes counted. I guess it depends where those votes are.
I really wanted a sweep tonight to move toward tanking health care reform......
DGibFen
11-03-09, 10:35 PM
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/1092/oopsd.jpg
Oops.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 10:42 PM
OWENS NOW LEADING HOFFMAN
Democrat ahead of Conservative by 3,007 votes
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2009
ARTICLE OPTIONS
A A A
print this article
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Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.
The Plattsburgh attorney has 42,019 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 39,012 votes.
Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 4,578 votes.
Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawarence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.
Hoffman leads in Oswego, Oneida and Madison counties.
Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won't be available tonight.
There is plenty left in St. Lawrence, but so far it hasn't gone well for Hoffman there. There simply aren't enough votes outstanding in the pro-Hoffman counties.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 11:18 PM
How and why?
http://www.foxnews.com/
-Click on WATCH LIVE: Christie Campaign Headquarters, then click on Fox News Radio at the top of the pop-up.
Why? Dunno, I've always like Colmes, even though I disagree with him ideologically.
kvrdave
11-03-09, 11:18 PM
The NY race was a clusterfuck in so many ways that I don't think it matters as to the "tone" of the voters. But NJ electing a Republican....who. You have to be one piece of shit Democrat to get beat by a Republican in NJ. :lol:
X
11-03-09, 11:20 PM
The NY race was a clusterfuck in so many ways that I don't think it matters as to the "tone" of the voters. But NJ electing a Republican....who. You have to be one piece of shit Democrat to get beat by a Republican in NJ. :lol:By tomorrow the NY race will become the most important race in terms of talking points if the Democrat wins.
DeputyDave
11-03-09, 11:22 PM
By tomorrow the NY race will become the most important race in terms of talking points if the Democrat wins.
Very true. Kind of flimsy to hang a hat on, though.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 11:26 PM
By tomorrow the NY race will become the most important race in terms of talking points if the Democrat wins.
I give you that and add this:
REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 182360 51.58%
No 171171 48.42%
X
11-03-09, 11:28 PM
REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 182360 51.58%
No 171171 48.42%Given that that's about the same as has occurred in every other state where it's been up to a vote, I don't think it is going to get that much national notice.
Just like the congressional election here in California.
Pharoh
11-03-09, 11:29 PM
It's over in NY-23. Owens the winner.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 11:29 PM
Give that that's about the same as has occurred in every other state where it's been up to a vote, I don't think it has much national importance.
Yeah, my bad. I was reading it at first as the gay marriage crowd was winning. :helpme:
So Maine will love the (medicinal) pot but hate teh gay.
DeputyDave
11-03-09, 11:35 PM
Yeah, my bad. I was reading it at first as the gay marriage crowd was winning. :helpme:
So Maine will love the (medicinal) pot but hate teh gay.
You stumbled onto the secret agenda: Pot leads to the gay.
DGibFen
11-03-09, 11:38 PM
You stumbled onto the secret agenda: Pot leads to the gay.
rotfl
Tommy Ceez
11-04-09, 12:02 AM
The NY race was a clusterfuck in so many ways that I don't think it matters as to the "tone" of the voters. But NJ electing a Republican....who. You have to be one piece of shit Democrat to get beat by a Republican in NJ. :lol:
This might be the first cannon shot in the VAMPIRE SQUID REVOLT
JasonF
11-04-09, 12:26 AM
The NY race was a clusterfuck in so many ways that I don't think it matters as to the "tone" of the voters. But NJ electing a Republican....who. You have to be one piece of shit Democrat to get beat by a Republican in NJ. :lol:
Not to dispute the notion that Jon Corzine is a shitty governor, but New Jersey elects plenty of Republican governors -- Tom Kean and Christine Todd Whitman to name the most famous ones in recent memory. In point of fact, since Governor Kean was elected in 1981, Republicans have controlled the New Jersey governorship for 16 out of 28 years.
kvrdave
11-04-09, 12:38 AM
Not to dispute the notion that Jon Corzine is a shitty governor, but New Jersey elects plenty of Republican governors -- Tom Kean and Christine Todd Whitman to name the most famous ones in recent memory. In point of fact, since Governor Kean was elected in 1981, Republicans have controlled the New Jersey governorship for 16 out of 28 years.
Go back further, and look at the point spread. And I am pretty much repeated what the Right Wing Cabal at CNN said. :shrug:
I watched a bit of Larry King and Jesse Ventura was on. That guy is absolutely nuts. I don't believe his IQ is over 90. He is a moron who can barely string words into a sentence. He makes no sense. What a loon.
kvrdave
11-04-09, 12:43 AM
rotfl
"The Body" just got smacked down by Ben Stein on the Constitution. All he could say in return was, "Sure, use a big word, but we all know what happened."
dork
11-04-09, 12:43 AM
I am pretty much repeated what the Right Wing Cabal at CNN said. :shrug:
Which one of them called Corzine a piece of shit? It was Gergen, wasn't it?
I watched a bit of Larry King and Jesse Ventura was on. That guy is absolutely nuts. I don't believe his IQ is over 90. He is a moron who can barely string words into a sentence. He makes no sense. What a loon.
In Larry's defense, he's like 140 years old... :sad:
JasonF
11-04-09, 12:50 AM
Go back further, and look at the point spread. And I am pretty much repeated what the Right Wing Cabal at CNN said. :shrug:
I watched a bit of Larry King and Jesse Ventura was on. That guy is absolutely nuts. I don't believe his IQ is over 90. He is a moron who can barely string words into a sentence. He makes no sense. What a loon.
How far back do you want to go? New Jersey adopted its current constitution in 1947. Since then, Democrats and Republicans have been trading the governorship back and forth every 8 years, except that Florio (a Democrat) only held it for four years between Kean and Whitman and Meyner and Hughes (both Democrats) held two back-to-back eight year terms in the fifties and sixties for a sixteen-year Democratic stretch.
For the love of God, when it comes to political analysis, don't believe anything you hear on cable news. They're a bunch of idiots who blather to hear their own voices. These are the same people who spent hours chasing a balloon because they got outsmarted by a wanna-be reality TV star.
X
11-04-09, 01:05 AM
With that fait accompli it kind of makes you wonder why President Obama campaigned for Corzine so many times, even up through last Sunday. He could have been out golfing.
wm lopez
11-04-09, 01:18 AM
With that fait accompli it kind of makes you wonder why President Obama campaigned for Corzine so many times, even up through last Sunday. He could have been out golfing.
Didn't Michael Moore make George W. Bush look like a fool for playing golf while America was at war in one of his movies?:confused:
X
11-04-09, 01:30 AM
Didn't Michael Moore make George W. Bush look like a fool for playing golf while America was at war in one of his movies?:confused:Way to keep the train of discussion going.
wmansir
11-04-09, 04:07 AM
The Maine gay marriage veto was approved, meaning no GM in Maine. The results were almost exactly the same as the previous vote on GM, 53/47 split. Turnout was pretty good for an off year election with over half of registered voters voting. I thought there would be a shift to the pro-GM side, possibly enough to swing it, but after I looked into a comment crazyronin made about the Sec of State validating signatures I became more doubtful.
When the GM law was signed by the Gov. in May the SoS said it would be extremely difficult for the opposition to get the required 55K signatures in time for the veto to appear on the fall ballot. The anti-GM side ended up with over 100K signatures, or well over 10% of the total number of registered voters. That indicated to me that the anti side would be coming out to vote.
I don't know what to chalk this vote up as. Maybe it's just the will of the people. I'm not sure how effective the anti-GM side's school teaching based campaign was, the pro-GM side had a well organized and funded campaign to counter it. My feeling is also that part of the vote was a rebuke of how the law was passed. The issue was voted down recently and several legislators who voted for it, and the Governor who signed it, were elected saying they opposed making gay marriage legal.
starman9000
11-04-09, 07:09 AM
I went 0-3 in my local election. I guess that gives me a free pass to complain that it's not my fault :)
DeputyDave
11-04-09, 07:17 AM
I went 0-3 in my local election. I guess that gives me a free pass to complain that it's not my fault :)
Kinda like I felt all year :)
starman9000
11-04-09, 07:29 AM
Kinda like I felt all year :)
Most of mine didn't really matter. I'm really annoyed at the councilman who won though, my ward has 2 colleges in it and he's a teacher at one of them. He used his position to get the kids to win (no policy involved, just repeating that "the other guy doesn't think college kid's votes matter" so they voted in droves to "prove him wrong")
Red Dog
11-04-09, 08:36 AM
Would have been nice to see Nanny Bloomberg lose. Oh well.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 08:43 AM
I'll post the results from Loudoun and Prince William counties when they are posted. That's your bellweather. They decide elections in VA. To win a statewide VA election, one must get to 50% in these 2 counties - at least it's been that way in 6 major (Prez/Gov/Sen) statewide elections since 2002. These are basically independents - solidly middle to upper-middle class - generally open-minded on social issues. I tend to think many got caught up in Obamania last year. If they back McDonnell several pts over 50, who's quite conservative socially, that speaks volumes to me.
I'll also post Fairfax County results which is more liberal (but not as liberal as Arlington or Alexandria). If McDonnell does better than 45% there, that would be big. For frame of reference, the best a Republican has done in the previous 6 elections there is Bush-2004 with 46%. It's more liberal now than it was in '04.
Here we go....
Fairfax: McDonnell 51%
Loudoun: McDonnell 61%
Prince William: McDonnell 58%
Huge numbers in the swing counties of Loudoun and PW and for Fairfax to go majority Republican is unheard of in recent history. I think it speaks for the general sentiment in those counties about what the Democrats are trying to do in Washington. Some Jeffersonianism migrating to the northern VA burbs.
classicman2
11-04-09, 08:59 AM
Lawrence O'Donnell says it was a great night for Democrats - winning the NY congressional seat.
I believe you'll find not too many folks in agreement with Lawrence. His assertion was laughed at on Morning Joe.
classicman2
11-04-09, 09:01 AM
The exit polls seem to indicate a huge shift among the independents in VA.
Venusian
11-04-09, 09:04 AM
Atlanta Mayor is going to runoff
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 09:13 AM
Would have been nice to see Nanny Bloomberg lose. Oh well.
That was never going to happen. The man spent $100M on this election.
Of course, it was a lot closer than anyone thought it would be. I doubt we'll see Bloomberg 2013.
wmansir
11-04-09, 09:22 AM
I don't think there is a lot to read into these results. The 3 elections that have been of national focus were all decided on local candidates/issues plus the NY race was a complete cluster f***.
I think maybe those moderate Dems in Congress might be a little more reluctant to back the WH though, since it looks less likely that The One can save their asses back home.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 09:44 AM
I don't think there is a lot to read into these results. The 3 elections that have been of national focus were all decided on local candidates/issues plus the NY race was a complete cluster f***.
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 09:49 AM
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
It's a lot simpler than that. The incumbent president in 2008 was a Republican. The economy sucked in 2008. Victory-non-incumbent.
The economy still sucks in 2009 (less so, but still really bad.) Victory-non-incumbent.
:shrug:
JasonF
11-04-09, 09:53 AM
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.
As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"
That's what it looks like to me. Both NJ and VA seem to have a history of lets go the opposite with the governor. It means something, I suppose, if you get caught up in the hysteria that Obama's win means Dems will never lose an election again, but what serious person believes that?
classicman2
11-04-09, 09:56 AM
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.
As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
Red Dog
11-04-09, 09:56 AM
It's a lot simpler than that. The incumbent president in 2008 was a Republican. The economy sucked in 2008. Victory-non-incumbent.
The economy still sucks in 2009 (less so, but still really bad.) Victory-non-incumbent.
:shrug:
Yeah, it's called buyer's remorse. So much that they said fuck it, and voted for a social conservative (which most certainly does not reflect the feelings in those areas).
It wasn't buyer's remorse for me, but I basically said fuck it and held my nose.
wmansir
11-04-09, 09:58 AM
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
But is it an ideological swing, or just a matter of turnout? As a test for "Obamania" it may be a moot point if he can't bring his Obamatons out to vote when he's not on the ballot.
classicman2
11-04-09, 09:58 AM
I think that most people are more concerned about jobs than they are about health care reform.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:02 AM
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.
As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"
What Democrat would have won here this year? Besides Mark Warner? Hell, of the 3 primary candidates, Deeds was the one with the best chance. He was the closest to the center. Crappy campaign or not, the Democrats were going to lose this. Accept that.
What did the exit polls say about Obama in those counties? Do you not agree those are the key counties in VA? I'm sure for most of the state, it didn't matter. I know it's part of your 'job' in this forum to spin everything toward Obamacrat sunshine and lollipops, but look at the actual results.
1997? Not particularly. Like I said in a previous post, Fairfax is more liberal than it was a decade ago.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:03 AM
All this "Obamania" talk is lazy, IMO. Certainly there was some of that, but there's no evidence that he won because everyone was wrapped up in a cult of personality. The guy won because the economy was in the shithole and he wasn't of the incumbent party.
JasonF
11-04-09, 10:07 AM
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
Obama was a non-factor for most voters, whether you're talking about the President himself or his policies. For those for whom he (or his policies) was a factor, they were pretty much evenly split between pro-Obama and anti-Obama in New Jersey, with a slight but statistically significant edge for anti-Obama in Virginia.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:08 AM
But is it an ideological swing, or just a matter of turnout? As a test for "Obamania" it may be a moot point if he can't bring his Obamatons out to vote when he's not on the ballot.
Those are the type of counties that drove Obama to his tremendous success last year. Those counties aren't filled with blacks or liberals, so turnout isn't much of a factor IMO (as opposed to state turnout - I'm sure black turnout was down significantly). These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:11 AM
Those are the type of counties that drove Obama to his tremendous success last year. Those counties aren't filled with blacks or liberals, so turnout isn't much of a factor IMO (as opposed to state turnout - I'm sure black turnout was down significantly). These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.
You keep saying this, but do you have any evidence?
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:12 AM
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
I admit I'm being lazy with my language....I think the results I posted reflect an anti-Democrat in Washington sentiment (so more than just Obama).
JasonF
11-04-09, 10:14 AM
I will say this for New Jersey: it took more than a year, but finally a Goldman executive lost his job because of the Wall Street clusterfuck.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:15 AM
You keep saying this, but do you have any evidence?
I compared the numbers that Obama received in these areas compared to '01 Warner, '04 Kerry, '05 Kaine, and '06 Webb. For example, in Prince William, Obama got 58% compared to Kaine and Webb's 50. That's a huge jump.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:16 AM
I compared the numbers that Obama received in these areas compared to '01 Warner, '04 Kerry, '05 Kaine, and '06 Webb. For example, in Prince William, Obama got 58% compared to Kaine and Webb's 50. That's a huge jump.
So what? How does that in way indicate that those voters were duped by some sort of cult of personality?
JasonF
11-04-09, 10:19 AM
I admit I'm being lazy with my language....I think the results I posted reflect an anti-Democrat in Washington sentiment (so more than just Obama).
I think that's part of it, although I think it has more to do with voting against the party in power than any kind of ideological analysis. But Virginia has a history of electing a governor from the party out of power in Washington, so it's not surprising that they decided to send a Repubican to Richmond while there are Democrats in D.C. But again, I agree with Tracer -- this has a lot more to do with reacting to a bad economy by switching horses than it has to do with an analysis of or reaction to the particular horses.
Also, we all know the real referendum on Obama was the election in CA-10. ;)
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:19 AM
So what? How does that in way indicate that those voters were duped by some sort of cult of personality?
I can't read minds, but for a vote to go from 50 to 58 to 42 in that county over 3 elections with the 58 going for the most liberal of the 3 suggests that personality played a big role.
You don't think personality plays a role in elections? Go back over the last few decades of presidential elections. Has the candidate with the less engaging personality ever won? Note: I consider Bush and Gore a push.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:21 AM
I think that's part of it, although I think it has more to do with voting against the party in power than any kind of ideological analysis. But Virginia has a history of electing a governor from the party out of power in Washington, so it's not surprising that they decided to send a Repubican to Richmond while there are Democrats in D.C. But again, I agree with Tracer -- this has a lot more to do with reacting to a bad economy by switching horses than it has to do with an analysis of or reaction to the particular horses.
Also, we all know the real referendum on Obama was the election in CA-10. ;)
You're right. It's not surprising at all. What is surprising are the actual numbers (particularly in the counties I listed), and that these numbers were for a social conservative.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:23 AM
I can't read minds, but for a vote to go from 50 to 58 to 42 in that county over 3 elections with the 58 going for the most liberal of the 3 suggests that personality played a big role.
But you said yourself that NoVA has become more liberal over the past decade or two. That's number 1.
Number 2 is the simple fact that economy was absolutely terrible last Election Day.
Number 3 is the fact that Obama simply ran a better campaign than McCain.
This time, all politics was local
By Nate Silver, Special to CNN
November 4, 2009 8:46 a.m. EST
Editor's note: Nate Silver runs a popular election analysis Web site, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, and was named a member of the Time 100 list of the world's most influential people in 2009.
(CNN) -- "All politics is local." That four-word statement, originally uttered by former Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill, is one of the favorite clichés of political pundits everywhere. But it's seldom respected when it matters most.
Consider, for instance, the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, which conservative Democrat Bill Owens won in spite of partisan and nonpartisan polling that had shown Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman with a solid lead.
Almost overnight, Hoffman became a sort of folk hero among conservative activists around the country, a decidedly ordinary-looking man who seemed poised to take an extraordinary path into Washington. Some 95 percent of his fundraising came from outside the district.
Hoffman, indeed, had some initial success. The original Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race after polling showed her trailing both Hoffman and Owens. But when push came to shove, Hoffman lost.
Why? Because those activists -- however well-meaning they might have been -- misunderstood the district. The 23rd is a Republican district, but it is not a particularly conservative one, having split its vote between Barack Obama and the moderate Republican John McHugh last November.
If Nancy Pelosi is regarded suspiciously in the 23rd, so are Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson, who cut commercials and robocalls on behalf of Hoffman. What the voters there wanted was a candidate who understood them. Owens -- superior to Hoffman in his command of local issues -- provided the best approximation.
Alternatively, consider the outcome in New Jersey, where Republican Chris Christie knocked off incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. This election is being touted as a referendum on Obama, who took a risk -- a bad one, indeed -- by campaigning on behalf of Corzine.
But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.
Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign; every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached. Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the race.
Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption).
There is a much stronger case that national factors were in play in Virginia. The voters who turned out there Tuesday were more likely to have supported John McCain than Obama last year. Obama carried the state by 6 percentage points last year. But exit polls found that 51 percent of this year's voters in Virginia were people who had voted for McCain.
Even a strong Democratic candidate would have struggled under the circumstances. But Democrats also made a mistake in thinking that Creigh Deeds, who hails from rural Bath County on the West Virginia border and wears his upbringing on his sleeve, would be the best candidate to represent them in the state.
In many other states -- Ohio, say -- it's the rural, working-class vote that swings elections. But that's not the case in Virginia, which is one of the wealthiest and most suburban states in the country. There, suburban moderates such as Mark Warner tend to do better. Deeds might have been the right candidate -- but he was in the wrong state.
State-level politics, indeed, routinely differ from national ones. That's why you have Democratic governors in red states such as Oklahoma and Wyoming, but Republican ones in blue states such as Vermont and Hawaii.
That does not mean that local elections can't tell us anything about national trends -- the White House would be feeling better, certainly, if Democrats had won New Jersey, and likewise Republicans if they'd won NY-23. But usually the party that applies a one-size-fits-all approach to local races is the losing one.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nate Silver.
JasonF
11-04-09, 10:25 AM
You're right. It's not surprising at all. What is surprising are the actual numbers (particularly in the counties I listed), and that these numbers were for a social conservative.
I haven't been following the race too closely, but with the exception of being pro-choice (asmittedly a large exception for many people), Deeds seemed fairly socially conservative as well. Was there that much difference between the two of them on social issues?
starman9000
11-04-09, 10:26 AM
I can't read minds, but for a vote to go from 50 to 58 to 42 in that county over 3 elections with the 58 going for the most liberal of the 3 suggests that personality played a big role.
You don't think personality plays a role in elections? Go back over the last few decades of presidential elections. Has the candidate with the less engaging personality ever won? Note: I consider Bush and Gore a push.
So because the Democrat running for governor had a worse personality than the Republican, it proves that they hate Obama's policy?
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:28 AM
But you said yourself that NoVA has become more liberal over the past decade or two. That's number 1.
Number 2 is the simple fact that economy was absolutely terrible last Election Day.
Number 3 is the fact that Obama simply ran a better campaign than McCain.
And let's not forget the mess of Palin's VP nod.
Last decade and I specifically said Fairfax Co. I'm referencing 3 elections dating back to 2006. The area hasn't changed in 3 years. 50 (Webb) to 58 (Obama) to 42 (Deeds) in Prince William. That's more than just the economy (no doubt a factor).
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:32 AM
Last decade and I specifically said Fairfax Co. I'm referencing 3 elections dating back to 2006. The area hasn't changed in 3 years. 50 (Webb) to 58 (Obama) to 42 (Deeds) in Prince William. That's more than just the economy (no doubt a factor).
Whatever, I don't care enough to keep going around in circles with you.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:34 AM
So because the Democrat running for governor had a worse personality than the Republican, it proves that they hate Obama's policy?
I don't think Deeds had a worse personality than McDonnell. Both were pretty bland if you ask me. Now Deeds did run a worse campaign - he went negative, but frankly, his hands were tied given the political environment (much like McCain last year).
I think the numbers demonstrate serious discontent in those counties with what's going on in Washington. The voters in these counties (not so much Fairfax) are fairly independent. Whether that's a harbinger for the national scene next year - that's up for each person to judge themselves.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 10:41 AM
Whatever, I don't care enough to keep going around in circles with you.
This is probably a good time for me to end my brief re-entry into this forum (except for Supreme Court stuff). Good times.
starman9000
11-04-09, 10:43 AM
I think the numbers demonstrate serious discontent in those counties with what's going on in Washington. The voters in these counties (not so much Fairfax) are fairly independent. Whether that's a harbinger for the national scene next year - that's up for each person to judge themselves.
I guess that's what I am unsure on. You are there, so you have a better feel of things I'm sure, but I've been amused out here in conservative country that people are treating these 2 elections as this massive triumph, when they appear to me to be following the trend for the area for the past 20-30 years.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 10:44 AM
This is probably a good time for me to end my brief re-entry into this forum (except for Supreme Court stuff). Good times.
:lol:
I was thinking the same thing. No wonder it's been so quiet in these parts lately.
classicman2
11-04-09, 10:49 AM
I guess that's what I am unsure on. You are there, so you have a better feel of things I'm sure, but I've been amused out here in conservative country that people are treating these 2 elections as this massive triumph, when they appear to me to be following the trend for the area for the past 20-30 years.
I'm more amused by some folks that say it was a Democratic triumph.
starman9000
11-04-09, 10:51 AM
No doubt, but even CNN doesn't say that, so I can't say I've seen a lot of that sentiment. And no cable for me means no MSNBC, which I assume is going with that take (looks like their website doesn't)?
Sean O'Hara
11-04-09, 10:54 AM
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.
As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"
And McDonnell was a crazy Christian right nutball who wants to ban women from working and lock up teh gays -- as reported extensively in the WaPo, which is the main paper for Fairfax. For Fairfaxians to still vote for McDonnell after that is major, and whether or not they saw the election as a referendum on Obama doesn't change the fact that this bodes ill for the Dems in Virginia.
X
11-04-09, 11:14 AM
Also, we all know the real referendum on Obama was the election in CA-10. ;)Speaking of which... kind of interesting results there.
Garamendi, the Democrat (and current Lt. Governor) who has been in California politics forever, only got 53% of the vote in a safe, heavily Democrat district. Democrat registration is 18 percentage points higher than Republican in that gerrymandered district.
Garamendi doesn't even live in the district but that issue never got traction during the campaign. A big campaign issue was his favoring national health care.
The previous Democrat he is replacing never got below 65% of the vote after the district was gerrymandered.
CRM114
11-04-09, 11:50 AM
A local county council race winner (R) gave this statement: "We put together a good team of candidates that the voters responded to and we seem to have capitalized on a national mood for change."
Puleeaze.
CRM114
11-04-09, 11:51 AM
This is probably a good time for me to end my brief re-entry into this forum (except for Supreme Court stuff). Good times.
You too? :lol: I've not posted in this forum much lately myself.
kvrdave
11-04-09, 11:54 AM
Let's just put it this way.....if you are a liberal, then the election meant nothing about Obama or the mood of the people, yet the presidential election did. If you are conservative, this election was about Obama and health care.
Close thread, plz.
CRM114
11-04-09, 11:56 AM
If its about the "mood of the people" then "the people" are a fickle bunch. :lol:
Dr Mabuse
11-04-09, 11:56 AM
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?
What do these outcomes mean?
CRM114
11-04-09, 11:58 AM
Christie will be a complete disaster in Jersey just like Corzine and just like McGreevey. He will then lose his re-election because Jersey is a total mess. Interesting how a state with such high income people would be in such a fiscal mess. Now they are all moving here. :( Jersey drivers are the WORST.
Pharoh
11-04-09, 11:59 AM
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?
What do these outcomes mean?
Reality?
Elections are no longer about President Bush.
starman9000
11-04-09, 12:04 PM
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?
What do these outcomes mean?
A sweep is a sweep. Suck it Obama.
JasonF
11-04-09, 12:13 PM
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?
What do these outcomes mean?
They mean that Christie will be governor of New Jersey, McDonnell will be governor of Virginia, and Owens will represent NY-23. I think anybody trying to read broader trends than that is a fool.
Pharoh
11-04-09, 12:23 PM
They mean that Christie will be governor of New Jersey, McDonnell will be governor of Virginia, and Owens will represent NY-23. I think anybody trying to read broader trends than that is a fool.
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base, and the fact that President Bush as a scapegoat is no longer relevant as meaning anything.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 12:27 PM
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base
A what now?
classicman2
11-04-09, 12:54 PM
I believe one thing is for certain - Obama didn't have a hell of lot of influence over the voters in VA & NJ.
JasonF
11-04-09, 01:17 PM
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base, and the fact that President Bush as a scapegoat is no longer relevant as meaning anything.
That Republican base motivated itself right the hell out of a seat that's gone to the GOP for as long as there has been a GOP. Well done!
So, of the four elections people have focused on, we have two governorships in states that traditional send the party that is out of the White House to the state house and both did so, in both cases by tossing out the incumbent party during a time of economic toruble. We have one reliably safe Democratic seat that stayed with the Democrats and one reliably safe Republican seat that flipped to the Democrats despite the best efforts of Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Armey, and other prominent conservative/Republican voices that had thrown their weight behind the Tea Party candidate. Clearly, this all spells doom for President Obama.
TheBigDave
11-04-09, 01:18 PM
Instead of watching the election results, Obama watched a movie about himself:
Looks like the news report is incorrect. Here's an update from NewsBusters:
A tipster contacted NewsBusters questioning that report and after having acquired a transcript of the press gaggle, we have confirmed that the Fox News report was incorrect and Gibbs did not make any such statement......
Clearly Gibbs was simply referencing the HBO documentary as evidence that the President does not routinely watch election returns.
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"
I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 01:42 PM
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"
I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 01:42 PM
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"
I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Corzine's defeat had nothing to do with Obama. He was an unpopular governor.
This was an Election Day about local issues.
Pharoh
11-04-09, 01:56 PM
That Republican base motivated itself right the hell out of a seat that's gone to the GOP for as long as there has been a GOP. Well done!
So, of the four elections people have focused on, we have two governorships in states that traditional send the party that is out of the White House to the state house and both did so, in both cases by tossing out the incumbent party during a time of economic toruble. We have one reliably safe Democratic seat that stayed with the Democrats and one reliably safe Republican seat that flipped to the Democrats despite the best efforts of Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Armey, and other prominent conservative/Republican voices that had thrown their weight behind the Tea Party candidate. Clearly, this all spells doom for President Obama.
Please point out where I stated there was doom for President Obama and the Democrats.
And I will disagree over how safe the NY-23 seat was, despite the histrionics of history. Ms. Scozzafava was far from a shoo-in victor; I think she would have lost a close race. Or do you simply choose to ignore what I posted about President' Obama's performance in that CD?
And playing the what-if game for a moment, had Mr. Hoffman been the listed Republican he would have won handily. Frankly, I think he did remarkably well given the circumstances. Note, I am not arguing one way or the other on whether the GOP should have done what they did.
Numanoid
11-04-09, 02:06 PM
These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.Which part were they duped on?
Hope - hmmm...there's still hope.
Change - change obviously came, and is definitely coming big-time in the form of healthcare.
Making history - he certainly did that.
Again, where's the duping? The fact that eight years of Bush administration fuck-ups haven't been fixed in the first ten months? :lol:
CRM114
11-04-09, 02:38 PM
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"
I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
tcoursen
11-04-09, 02:53 PM
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
This was really only the first time an incumbant ran since Whitman also, so it isn't like there have been a string of incumbant defeats.
I think it is funny that Corzine lost. It is so funny to now here democrats talk about what a bad candidate he was. Well were was all that talk back during the primaries when he could have been replaced? Oh, that's right, the state dems were too busy taking his money.
And he should really be a democrats wet dream candidate, no? He is for ALL the liberal causes. Loves to spend money on education. Loves big government. Loves Unions. So how exactly is he a bad democrat candidate?????
JasonF
11-04-09, 03:09 PM
Please point out where I stated there was doom for President Obama and the Democrats.
Only my first paragraph was in response to you; I apologize for not making that clearer.
JasonF
11-04-09, 03:15 PM
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
Perhaps more importantly, no candidate for New Jersey governor has won election while his or her party controlled the White House since 1985. You have to go back to 1973 for that to have happened in Virginia.
That said, I'm skeptical of reading too much into statistics like the above. Elections are highly idiosyncratic contests between two particular candidates at a particular point in time. I believe peoples' opinions of Corzine and Christie (or McDonnell or Deeds) and their respective policy positions swamp any thoughts on dividing the state house from the White House, or sending a message to Washington, or any of the other factors people are bringing up to try to explain these elections.
CRM114
11-04-09, 03:15 PM
This was really only the first time an incumbant ran since Whitman also, so it isn't like there have been a string of incumbant defeats.
I think it is funny that Corzine lost. It is so funny to now here democrats talk about what a bad candidate he was. Well were was all that talk back during the primaries when he could have been replaced? Oh, that's right, the state dems were too busy taking his money.
And he should really be a democrats wet dream candidate, no? He is for ALL the liberal causes. Loves to spend money on education. Loves big government. Loves Unions. So how exactly is he a bad democrat candidate?????
I never said he was a bad candidate. Don't know where you got that? I only said Jersey has a lot of problems and this defeat has nothing to do with a referendum on Obama.
CRM114
11-04-09, 03:16 PM
Perhaps more importantly, no candidate for New Jersey governor has won election while his or her party controlled the White House since 1985. You have to go back to 1973 for that to have happened in Virginia.
That said, I'm skeptical of reading too much into statistics like the above. Elections are highly idiosyncratic contests between two particular candidates at a particular point in time. I believe peoples' opinions of Corzine and Christie (or McDonnell or Deeds) and their respective policy positions swamp any thoughts on dividing the state house from the White House, or sending a message to Washington, or any of the other factors people are bringing up to try to explain these elections.
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
tcoursen
11-04-09, 03:22 PM
I never said he was a bad candidate. Don't know where you got that? I only said Jersey has a lot of problems and this defeat has nothing to do with a referendum on Obama.
Sorry, you didn't say that and didn't mean to imply that you did. The second part of my post was a general comment on how the TV and radio today various commentators have talked about him being a bad candidate and how democrats knew that, and how despite knowing that Obama backed him, etc.
I do agree though that his loss had NOTHING to do with Obama. Obama is still popular here in NJ.
tcoursen
11-04-09, 03:28 PM
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
Yes, but it is that way in a very very very large part to the democrats that have run the state at all levels for a long time now.
When was the last time Newark had a republican mayor?? You would think the people would get tired of the same old party that does nothing for the city, but no they keep electing the same people and somehow get away with blaming the other party.
Christie will be a one termer. The only thing he may be able to do is possibly get rid of some of the state employees and maybe get new hires into 401Ks rather than the poorly funded state pension. But he is already coming into office facing a 6-10 BILLION dollar deficit next year because of how Corzine did the budget this year. So one way or another NJ will find out very fast what Christie is going to be.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 03:37 PM
I believe one thing is for certain - Obama didn't have a hell of lot of influence over the voters in VA & NJ.
This one he did. Granted, not in a positive way. ;)
classicman2
11-04-09, 03:38 PM
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
That's easy to say now.
CRM114
11-04-09, 03:55 PM
It's easy when you understand the state and the conditions that are driving their residents into MY state.
JasonF
11-04-09, 03:56 PM
This one he did. Granted, not in a positive way. ;)
Out of curiosity, what effect do you think the fact that Virginia has a Republican governor will have on the Obama administration? Put differently, how do you think the difference between McDonnell and Deeds will play out in terms of the actions of the federal government?
CRM114
11-04-09, 03:57 PM
Sorry, you didn't say that and didn't mean to imply that you did. The second part of my post was a general comment on how the TV and radio today various commentators have talked about him being a bad candidate and how democrats knew that, and how despite knowing that Obama backed him, etc.
I do agree though that his loss had NOTHING to do with Obama. Obama is still popular here in NJ.
Corzine was never going to dig the state out in one term. And when he uttered the words "Hold me accountable" he sealed his own fate. Christie is promising things he won't be able to deliver as well.
kvrdave
11-04-09, 03:58 PM
That Republican base motivated itself right the hell out of a seat that's gone to the GOP for as long as there has been a GOP. Well done!
From everything I have read and heard, the net affect is the same. She would have voted with the Democrats more often than Snowe. It seems like a hollow victory, but if that is all one can manage, you take it where you can get it.
JasonF
11-04-09, 04:12 PM
From everything I have read and heard, the net affect is the same. She would have voted with the Democrats more often than Snowe. It seems like a hollow victory, but if that is all one can manage, you take it where you can get it.
Please, please, please stop believing the nonsense you hear on Glen Beck. Dede Scozzafava is anti gun-control, anti drug-law reform, anti-labor, pro-police, anti-regulation, and pro-business. These are all broad-brush descriptions, of course, but largely accurate. She is certainly to the left of, for example, the Republican delegations from the deep South or the inter-mountain West, but she is well to the right of virtually every Democrat in Congress.
Yes, but it is that way in a very very very large part to the democrats that have run the state at all levels for a long time now.
When was the last time Newark had a republican mayor?? You would think the people would get tired of the same old party that does nothing for the city, but no they keep electing the same people and somehow get away with blaming the other party.
Christie will be a one termer. The only thing he may be able to do is possibly get rid of some of the state employees and maybe get new hires into 401Ks rather than the poorly funded state pension. But he is already coming into office facing a 6-10 BILLION dollar deficit next year because of how Corzine did the budget this year. So one way or another NJ will find out very fast what Christie is going to be.
I think Newark is much improved. Camden is the real shithole of NJ.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 04:20 PM
Out of curiosity, what effect do you think the fact that Virginia has a Republican governor will have on the Obama administration? Put differently, how do you think the difference between McDonnell and Deeds will play out in terms of the actions of the federal government?
I'm not stupid enough to think it would make a difference to Obama/Democrat federal policy. :lol: I suppose if this state opt-out in federal health care is available, it could make a difference there.
Part of my motivation to vote for McDonnell (a candidate I didn't particularly care for much outside of a few platform points that I agreed with) was simply to send a 'message' that I think the Democrats in Washington who currently hold all the power are complete reckless idiots. I've resigned myself to the fact that this is the only I can make my voice heard to those idiots, not that they really care or see my 'message.'
dork
11-04-09, 04:22 PM
Dede Scozzafava is anti gun-control, anti drug-law reform, anti-labor, pro-police, anti-regulation, and pro-business.
So Democrats are anti-police and anti-business? It's not too early to pick a campaign slogan for next year!
classicman2
11-04-09, 04:25 PM
So Democrats are anti-police and anti-business? It's not too early to pick a campaign slogan for next year!
You beat me to it. That's exactly what I was going to post.
dork
11-04-09, 04:28 PM
You beat me to it. That's exactly what I was going to post.
When the two most respected posters in the forum agree on something, it is clearly a universal truth.
wmansir
11-04-09, 04:28 PM
Please, please, please stop believing the nonsense you hear on Glen Beck. Dede Scozzafava is anti gun-control, anti drug-law reform, anti-labor, pro-police, anti-regulation, and pro-business. These are all broad-brush descriptions, of course, but largely accurate. She is certainly to the left of, for example, the Republican delegations from the deep South or the inter-mountain West, but she is well to the right of virtually every Democrat in Congress.
http://themoderatevoice.com/50319/dede-scozzafava-the-real-record/
How is she anti-labor? She supports the EFCA (with or without Card Check, depending on who's asking) and was endorsed by several local unions, including the NYS Teachers Union and the UAW. And the one her husband is the head of, if you want to count it.
"The Moderate Voice: An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents"
I bet it's a real party on that site. :lol:
classicman2
11-04-09, 04:34 PM
but a lot of what Scozzafava stands for resembles an old school conservative.
Does 'old school conservative' mean a Rockefeller Republican?
Red Dog
11-04-09, 04:37 PM
Does 'old school conservative' mean a Rockefeller Republican?
It sure as hell doesn't to me.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 04:37 PM
Does 'old school conservative' mean a Rockefeller Republican?
I think it means either not being either batshit crazy or filled with impotent rage, but we have what we have.
Basically, we have Olympia Snowe and a couple of dudes in like Pennsylvania.
classicman2
11-04-09, 04:46 PM
What is an old-school conservative?
Do you have to return to the days of Calvin Coolidge to find one?
Was Dwight Eisenhower an old-school conservative?
JasonF
11-04-09, 04:48 PM
How is she anti-labor? She supports the EFCA (with or without Card Check, depending on who's asking) and was endorsed by several local unions, including the NYS Teachers Union and the UAW. And the one her husband is the head of, if you want to count it.
She opposed, for example, a bill to give farmworkers the right to organize. As I said, calling her "anti-labor" was a broad brush statement on my part, but not without some justification.
classicman2
11-04-09, 04:51 PM
Perhaps JasonF could petition to have his user name changed to 'broad brush?' :)
kvrdave
11-04-09, 04:52 PM
Please, please, please stop believing the nonsense you hear on Glen Beck.
I didn't hear any of it on Glenn Beck.
If she is what you claim she is, she would not have endorsed the Democrat.
JasonF
11-04-09, 04:55 PM
By the way, to answer Red Dog's question of how Bob McDonnell could have done so well in Northern Virginia, here is one of the campaign signs his campaign gave out in that part of the state:
If she is what you claim she is, she would not have endorsed the Democrat.
If that's why you think she endorsed the Democrat, I think you're pretty blind to what went on there.
classicman2
11-04-09, 04:59 PM
The reason she endorsed the Democrat - she got pissed off.
kvrdave
11-04-09, 04:59 PM
If that's why you think she endorsed the Democrat, I think you're pretty blind to what went on there.
Then enlighten me. Why does such a staunch Republican drop out the day before the election and endorse the Democrat?
JasonF
11-04-09, 05:00 PM
I didn't hear any of it on Glenn Beck.
If she is what you claim she is, she would not have endorsed the Democrat.
I wanted to avoid cutting and pasting a block of text from some dude's blog, but let me expand on the broad statements I made regarding Scozzafava with a block of text from some dude's blog.
Since there are many conservatives that have flooded the blogosphere with basically falsehoods about Dede Scozzafava, the GOP candidate for NY-23, I thought I would repost in its entirety a blog post I found on the liberal blog called the Albany Project. Since many conservatives hard argued that Scozzafava is a radical leftist, you might think this blog would love her right? Well, read on and find out.
A lot of people, including people here in New York, have made the same argument. Part of it has to do with a lack of research on Scozzafava. The other half of it is a lack of information on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who conservatives call “liberal” and some progressives like Markos have called a “Blue Dog.”
After reading Markos’ post multiple times, it seems he uses the following as important points for his “liberal” labeling of Scozzafava.
robert.harding :: NY-23: Scozzafava’s Record At A Glance
- She has been endorsed in the past by the very progressive Working Families Party.
- She is pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, which puts her at odds with the conservatives in the Republican Party.
- She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it.
First, those three points. The Working Families Party does endorse Republicans and allow them to run on their line. It happens, but they are more likely to back a Democratic candidate. Living in New York, my state senator is George Maziarz. He has been endorsed by the Working Families Party in the past because of his connections to people within the WFP.
For Scozzafava, being backed by the WFP can be contributed to a few things. She ran unopposed in 2008 and was not on the Working Families line when she ran for re-election in 2006. She also was not on the line in the 2002 general election. The only times since redistricting in 2002 that she appeared on the WFP line was in 2004 and 2008. In both elections, she ran unopposed. Therefore, the WFP endorsements were more by default than anything. It’s not as if she had to fight for those endorsements with another candidate.
The pro-choice and pro-marriage equality positions are very good and is a breath of fresh air for a Republican. But just as we don’t like it when Republicans try to define us based on social issues, we should not be guilty of the same when it comes to determining whether someone is progressive or not. Is she progressive on these issues? No doubt. But don’t judge a book by its cover.
The last point of Markos: She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it. In New York, that can be seen as a good and/or bad thing. There are good taxes and fees, bad taxes and fees and others that are somewhere in between. Any good progressive in New York will tell you that not all taxes are good and that not all taxes are bad. There is a middle ground. The problem in New York is that we have had too many regressive taxes and not enough progressive taxation. So giving Scozzafava credit for being liberal on this is misguided for the reasons I have shown.
But aside from Markos’ points, I also wanted to address some of the past votes Scozzafava has cast in the Assembly .
- An important issue for progressives in New York has been Rockefeller Drug Law Reform. A bill (A.6085) was passed in the Assembly and a deal was reached with both houses to reform the broken drug laws that led to extreme sentences for some of the most minor offenses. The roll call vote shows that Scozzafava voted against these reforms.
- Earlier this year, the Assembly passed a comprehensive gun package to combat gun violence and put laws in place to provide for better tracking of guns and provide for more accountability. The package includes 13 bills that were passed in the Assembly. Of those 13 bills, Scozzafava voted for only one. That bill was A.7733 and its purpose is to “Authorizes courts to revoke firearms license and seize the weapons of certain individuals.” Essentially, if the person is a threat to the public, courts could take away the firearms license and weapons of that person.
It is safe to say that Scozzafava is pro-gun and clearly anti-gun control of any kind. (I would give her credit for the single “Yea” vote, but it was a unanimous vote in the Assembly. Every Republican voted for it.)
Also, keep in mind that the package came after the shootings in Binghamton, which was a national news story and led to immediate action in the Assembly.
- Scozzafava’s record on the environment is mixed, at best. She voted against the Bigger Better Bottle Bill, but voted for the Green Jobs bill that was unanimously passed in the Assembly. The Assembly passed a package of environmental bills earlier this year. Of the 14 bills included in the package, Scozzafava voted for six of the bills and against eight of them. These were bills that were supported by progressives and the Democratic conference in the Assembly.
- Scozzafava voted against the Farmworkers Bill of Rights that passed the Assembly. This was seen as a pro-labor and pro-worker bill to support farm laborers who face unpleasant conditions in some instances.
- Voted against a bill that would provide additional compensation for police officers in New York City that use a foreign language in the course of their duties. She also voted against legislation that would give the attorney general jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute police misconduct.
- Voted against regulating the use of “no-knock” warrants and monitoring the use of all search warrants.
- Cast a vote against the 2010 Campaign Finance Reform Act, which would provide “for optional partial public financing of certain election campaigns in this state.” (Here is more on this legislation she voted against.)
- Voted against a bill that would require restaurants (with 15 or more outlets in the U.S.) to post the caloric information of menu items. Also voted against a bill banning trans fats in restaurants.
- Voted against legislation that would strengthen New York’s laws against unfair debt collection practices. Also voted against “legislation requiring debt collection firms to provide consumers a written “Debtor’s Bill of Rights” along with their initial debt collection communication.”
- Voted against expanding foreclosure protections. This bill included protections for tenants in property that is being foreclosed.
- Among the many areas, one area that Scozzafava seems to have a consistent record of voting “no” in is housing. This year, the Assembly has passed 20 pieces of legislation related to housing. Of those 20 bills, Scozzafava voted against several of them. The bills she voted against include: A rent increase cap, rent increases linked to inflation rate, Section 8 housing being included in rent regulation, landlord rental unit recovery, affordable housing preservation, excessive rent increase shield and expansion of the Loft Law.
The reality is this: When people say “don’t judge a book by its cover”, you should take their advice. The “cover” on Scozzafava was that she was this progressive Republican because she was backed by the WFP, supported a woman’s right to choose and has been a supporter of marriage equality. But the “book” tells the whole story (as it usually does). Scozzafava has a few positions that are more liberal (on abortion and marriage equality) but most of her positions are, at best, moderate-to-conservative. More often than not, however, she is a conservative.
One more thing: This statement on Scozzafava’s website came after President Barack Obama’s health care address a couple of weeks ago. One of the ideas she pushes? Tort reform. Not exactly the progressive approach to solving the health care crisis, but it’s one of the first (if not THE first) things brought up by Scozzafava.
The conclusion I draw from looking over numerous pieces of legislation is that Scozzafava on most issues is nothing more than your average Assembly Republican. Most of the votes that she did support the Democratic (or progressive) positions came when the whole Assembly voted unanimously for a bill. Scozzafava’s conservative positions are not reflected in the mainstream media, where she is labeled a “liberal” because of her stances on two social issues that, while important, should never define any candidate and should never be the sole indicator of a candidate’s ideology.
I see Scozzafava as someone who is far from the Glenn Becks of the world. But that doesn’t mean she is not conservative. The modern-day conservative is a different breed, but a lot of what Scozzafava stands for resembles an old school conservative. At best, she’s a moderate with conservative leanings. At worst, she’s a conservative Republican whose liberal stances on two social issues have given her an inaccurate label.
Would she be a Susan Collins-type, as Markos suggested? Probably not. Her record has shown that she hasn’t really been willing to buck the GOP party line on big issues (unless the whole GOP goes along with it). There are worse Republicans than Scozzafava, but she isn’t someone I would depend on to cross party lines and vote on a Democratic (and/or progressive) issue.
- She has been endorsed in the past by the very progressive Working Families Party.
- She is pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, which puts her at odds with the conservatives in the Republican Party.
- She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it.
Budgets never require it. They often require cutting costs.
Red Dog
11-04-09, 05:11 PM
By the way, to answer Red Dog's question of how Bob McDonnell could have done so well in Northern Virginia, here is one of the campaign signs his campaign gave out in that part of the state:
Location location location. Hmmmm. Gee could that fact have slipped my mind before I posted my analysis? I wonder why NoVa's own Jim Webb, from Falls Church, didn't score near 60% in Loudoun and PW then 3 years ago. I could ask the same about Alexandrian Mark Warner in '01.
Tracer Bullet
11-04-09, 05:21 PM
Then enlighten me. Why does such a staunch Republican drop out the day before the election and endorse the Democrat?
The reason she endorsed the Democrat - she got pissed off.
That's certainly one reason. Another reason is that she probably felt like she was thrown under the bus by the national party and the teabaggers.
A bigger reason is that this election was about local issues, and Owens actually is familiar with the district that he will be representing come January.
Buy: