:lol:
weekend predictions/estimates
1 Inglourious Basterds $34,000,000 -- 3,165 -- $10,742 $34,000,000 1 The Weinstein Company
2 District 9 $18,000,000 -52% 3,050 +1 $5,902 $72,590,771 2 Sony/ TriStar
3 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra $11,700,000 -48% 3,953 -54 $2,960 $119,730,947 3 Paramount
4 The Time Traveler's Wife $9,500,000 -49% 2,988 0 $3,179 $36,923,249 2 Warner Bros./ New Line
5 Julie & Julia $9,000,000 -25% 2,463 +109 $3,654 $59,288,291 3 Sony/ Columbia
6 Shorts $6,500,000 -- 3,105 -- $2,093 $6,500,000 1 Warner Bros.
7 G-Force $4,500,000 -35% 2,561 -504 $1,757 $107,609,955 5 Disney
8 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $3,400,000 -34% 1,936 -835 $1,756 $290,160,375 6 Warner Bros.
9 Post Grad $2,800,000 -- 1,959 -- $1,429 $2,800,000 1 Fox Searchlight
10 The Ugly Truth $2,700,000 -39% 1,971 -762 $1,370 $82,737,450 5 Sony/ Columbia
NoirFan
08-22-09, 03:45 PM
Julie and Julia is doing quite well.
Deftones
08-22-09, 03:48 PM
Good for District 9. :up:
KillerCannibal
08-22-09, 04:15 PM
You may be right. Def the biggest opening of Tarantino's career. Good for him.
Glad to see D9 holding pretty well. It deserves to cross $100m.
chris_sc77
08-22-09, 05:18 PM
Hooray for Inglourious Basterds. It will probably sink like a stone next weekend but it should still be able to make it to at least $75-$85 million overall which is definitely a success. When was the last time Weinstien Co. had a number 1 movie?
Also glad to see RObert Rodriguez's new kiddie bullshit bomb. IS this his third bomb in a row after Grindhouse and Sharkboy....? Hopefully this will end his hobby of child movies and get back to making violent fun adult moves again. (C'mon sin city 2!!!!)
I have absolutely no idea what the hell Post Grad is. DIDnt even know that was something that existed.
G.I. JOE should make it to $150 million domestically which is most likely gonna ensure a sequel.
Julie and Julia is holding up very very well. So is Harry POtter. Wonder if that will hit $300 Million?
Suprmallet
08-22-09, 05:21 PM
Great for Tarantino and District 9. I'd be very happy if those numbers are correct.
Rypro 525
08-22-09, 05:39 PM
well bom has Basterds making 14 and change on friday alone (which also would count for the midnight screenings) which explain why the estimate is only 34 instead of higher
Ash Ketchum
08-22-09, 07:38 PM
I'm hoping good word-of-mouth will boost BASTERDS. I've been doing my part. I think a lot of the potential grown-up audience for it may have been put off by the emphasis on violence in some of the trailers, but there really isn't that much of it. (There are very few action scenes in it at all.) It definitely has appeal to adults wanting a well-thought-out film with intelligent dialogue and strong characters. When the word gets out, people will go.
musick
08-22-09, 08:41 PM
I'm hoping good word-of-mouth will boost BASTERDS. I've been doing my part. I think a lot of the potential grown-up audience for it may have been put off by the emphasis on violence in some of the trailers, but there really isn't that much of it. (There are very few action scenes in it at all.) It definitely has appeal to adults wanting a well-thought-out film with intelligent dialogue and strong characters. When the word gets out, people will go.
not too sure about that ... I saw a matinee show today (3:45) and it was packed with the average age in the room having to be over 60 yrs old
yes I had to check to make sure I didn't accidentally walk into Julia and Julia
mcfly
08-22-09, 08:43 PM
I'm still trying to see it this weekend but I've been too lazy and don't feel like fighting teenagers just to crawl my way in to theater itself.
I really can't wait. I'm shocked to see it do $34m - I didn't see that coming.
Mr.Briggs
08-22-09, 10:39 PM
With $3.4 Million Half Blood Prince just crosses $290 Million domestically. For it to hit $300 Mill it'll have to crawl across the finish line on fumes.
stingermck
08-23-09, 02:47 PM
BOM
1 Inglourious Basterds Wein. $37,602,000
2 District 9 TriS $18,900,000
3 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra Par. $12,500,000
4 The Time Traveler's Wife WB (NL) $10,025,000
5 Julie & Julia Sony $9,000,000
6 Shorts WB $6,600,000 -
7 G-Force BV $4,205,000
8 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $3,515,000
9 The Ugly Truth Sony $2,850,000
10 Post Grad Fox $2,800,000
LickTheABCs
08-23-09, 03:09 PM
Great news for IB and District 9.
Jam Master Jay
08-23-09, 03:15 PM
Not too bad for D9 a less than 50% drop. Me and some buddies and doing a double feature on Tues seeing both District 9 and IB in the same night.
Suprmallet
08-23-09, 03:42 PM
$37 million for IB! That's fantastic.
anomynous
08-23-09, 04:39 PM
Remember, Basterds isn't 100% Weinstein.
So we have to wait for H2 to tank to find out their fate
Dr. DVD
08-23-09, 05:39 PM
Glad to see IB did well. Hopefully QT will won't take as big a break between this one and his next project as he did with Jackie Brown and Kill Bill.
DRG
08-24-09, 10:10 AM
With $3.4 Million Half Blood Prince just crosses $290 Million domestically. For it to hit $300 Mill it'll have to crawl across the finish line on fumes.
Order of the Phoenix had $275M at this point in its run (making a bit more for the 6th weekend at $3.65M) and ended up with $292M in the end, so $10M should be reachable. It is still playing on well over 1000 screens and hasn't even hit dollar theaters yet (which is usually the last $3-5 million for a big movie like this).
RobLutter
08-24-09, 10:23 AM
Remember, Basterds isn't 100% Weinstein.
So we have to wait for H2 to tank to find out their fate
Basterds was a 50/50 production with Universal IIRC... so Weinstein takes all domestic sales and Uni all international sales.
I think Weinstein also sold all DVD/BD rights to Universal as well (as they're REALLY strapped for cash apparently), so the US box office is what they're banking on 100%. Basterds cost $70M to make so if you consider that Weinsteins are responsible for half of that, they've already made their money back.
And I was hoping Weinstein would die so that someone would release Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair on DVD/BD. Damn. LOL.
I dunno... I didn't see Halloween Remake #1 but the trailer for H2 looks pretty positive. I think it might get creamed by The Final Destination 3D however (what idiot put both of those on the same weekend?!)
The Bus
08-24-09, 10:32 AM
Halloween was awful, and I'm someone who liked The Devil's Rejects.
RichC2
08-24-09, 11:01 AM
^ Same here. On top of that H2 has one of the most drawn out, ridiculously boring, suspenseless trailers I've seen in sometime.
Giles
08-24-09, 11:07 AM
I guess 'Ponyo' isn't doing very well.
RichC2
08-24-09, 11:40 AM
I guess 'Ponyo' isn't doing very well.
11 6 The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard ParV $2,650,000 -53.0% 1,849 +11 $1,433 $11,187,000 $10 2
12 9 Ponyo BV $2,429,000 -32.3% 927 - $2,620 $8,140,000 - 2
13 11 (500) Days of Summer FoxS $2,375,000 -20.0% 988 -60 $2,404 $22,171,000 $7.5 6
14 14 The Hangover WB $1,505,000 -24.3% 848 -337 $1,775 $268,308,000 $35 12
Hokeyboy
08-24-09, 11:48 AM
^ Same here. On top of that H2 has one of the most drawn out, ridiculously boring, suspenseless trailers I've seen in sometime.
I simply CANNOT BELIEVE that Zombie stooped to such unoriginal lows as to do the "slasher guy suddenly appears in the reflection of the medicine cabinet as it closes" bit (as shown in the trailer). Usually such idiocy is reserved for some swill along the lines of a direct-to-video "I Know What You Did Last Summer" sequel.
I'm not the biggest RZ-as-director fan, but I really thought he was above this.
Mr. Cinema
08-24-09, 01:53 PM
G.I. Joe is up to $120.5 mil in the US. I think it'll get close to $150 mil, but not sure it can surpass that. With kids going back to school soon, it may end up closer to $140m.
chris_sc77
08-24-09, 05:38 PM
Basterds was a 50/50 production with Universal IIRC... so Weinstein takes all domestic sales and Uni all international sales.
I think Weinstein also sold all DVD/BD rights to Universal as well (as they're REALLY strapped for cash apparently), so the US box office is what they're banking on 100%. Basterds cost $70M to make so if you consider that Weinsteins are responsible for half of that, they've already made their money back.
Actually here is how it breaks down according to Nikki Finke's Deadline Hollywood:
"Universal has both foreign theatrical distribution, and international and domestic home video, while Weinstein is self-distributing in North America and also has pay TV. There's a single-pot worldwide deal split 50/50."
chris_sc77
08-24-09, 05:43 PM
Oh and one more thing the actuals were actually just a bit higher:
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS = $38,054,676 (3-day weekend)
RichC2
08-26-09, 02:35 PM
Made an extra $8.7m since then (Monday - $4.5m, Tuesday - $4.2m), is at around $46.8m now.
Worldwide, the #3 grossing movie for the year is ... Ice Age 3 w/ $806m ($20m short of Transformers 2). I mean, it makes sense since it's all physical comedy and people love dinosaurs, but what the hell? Really?
Inglourious made $30m overseas over the weekend, add that to the $38m in the US and its weekend cume was around $68m. Not bad. Analysts are expecting a massive (up to 70%) drop this weekend, though (college, school kids being back) but we'll see.
Hokeyboy
08-26-09, 04:52 PM
Actually here is how it breaks down according to Nikki Finke's Deadline Hollywood:
"Universal has both foreign theatrical distribution, and international and domestic home video, while Weinstein is self-distributing in North America and also has pay TV. There's a single-pot worldwide deal split 50/50."
Interesting... for the film to be profitable for the Weinsteins on its theatrical run only... let's say they dropped $30m in marketing (not having to worry about foreign marketing or distribution at all) and took on half of the production costs $35m, that's a $65m cost. They get 25% of the worldwide haul (the other 25% to Universal, the other 50% to theaters).
So that's around a $260m worldwide haul for them to see profits on the theatrical run. They don't get home video (that's for Universal).. but for Pay TV, what can they get for this flick? $10m? $20m? $40m? I suppose that depends on how popular/lucrative the film is in theaters.
I think the movie might do better International business than previous QT flicks, given its European setting. $260m worldwide haul seems reasonable.
GizmoDVD
08-26-09, 08:44 PM
So it'll keep them afloat a bit longer until the screw up a few other films. Awesome.
chris_sc77
08-26-09, 10:00 PM
Well after Halloween 2 they have the Road which could be another big hit for them followed up by Nine which could also make some nbank and both of these (plus INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS) are definite awards contenders. The question is if they will have any money to market them for awards season at all.
GizmoDVD
08-27-09, 01:36 PM
I don't believe neither of those are even planned for a Theatrical release. If H2 fails, will they have enough money to even distribute them?
Rypro 525
08-27-09, 01:40 PM
Oh Nine will def get a theatrical release. Rob Marshall behind the camera, Daniel Day Lewis and Nichole Kidman (plus a bunch of others) singing
droidguy1119
08-27-09, 03:05 PM
Oh Nine will def get a theatrical release. Rob Marshall behind the camera, Daniel Day Lewis and Nichole Kidman (plus a bunch of others) singingI'm pretty sure if H2 bombs and Inglourious Basterds has a steep drop, The Weinsteins will basically be forced to sell Nine to someone else.
Rypro 525
08-27-09, 03:13 PM
Inglourious made $30m overseas over the weekend, add that to the $38m in the US and its weekend cume was around $68m. Not bad. Analysts are expecting a massive (up to 70%) drop this weekend, though (college, school kids being back) but we'll see.
with both h2 and final destination 4, i wouldn't be surprised. It would be nice if the Basterds actually beat one of those 2 movies this weekend
KillerCannibal
08-27-09, 03:33 PM
with both h2 and final destination 4, i wouldn't be surprised. It would be nice if the Basterds actually beat one of those 2 movies this weekend
Honestly, if good word of mouth keeps spreading, and those 2 films effectively "split" the horror pot, it's possible IB could win again.
I could see IB doing $18m, maybe. If H2 and FD4 each collect around $15m it might happen.
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