What to watch on election night: the Chronology

[Thor Simpson]

I'm curious what people think... at what point will we know when things are a done deal or a long night? What States will you be watching early in the evening to determine an Obama runaway, McCain comeback, or potential Bradley Effect collapse?

At what point in the evening do you anticipate the most drama and/or excitement?

Some polls have Washington as leaning Obama but not a shoe-in. I have serious doubts about that. But could Washington State be one of the focal points very very late in the evening if it comes down to the wire rather than Florida and Ohio?

[kvrdave]

:lol: you could call Washington State now. Did you see how much Obama beat Hillary by here? He killed her.

I doubt i will watch at all. I think it will be over early. I am only interested in one race, which was a nasty race in Oregon, and I am forced to watch the political ads.

[gmanca]

Indiana and Kentucky close at 6PM EST. If Obama wins or is very close in Indiana, IMO, he'll win the whole thing.

I'll be watching Virginia and PA very closely.

[The Bus]

I'm moving my other HDTV in the bedroom and watching concurrent CNN and ABC News footage, with Fox on the little TV. I will rub myself with a conction of hot oils and spices.

[VinVega]

Who knows when it will be over. I've been staying too late watching baseball lately, so I could use some rest. Hopefully, it's over early.

[Baron Of Hell]

I'm not watching. That part doesn't interest me. hmmmmm scratch that. I might be at a viewing party if there are any single women there also.

[Canadian Bacon]

I'm taking 3 days off so I can watch everything that goes on

any how it comes down to

yep you guessed it
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/02/election.hearing.ashcroft/map.florida.tallahassee.lg.jpg

[CRM114]

If it starts to turn to the typical Bush states for McCain, it could be a long night. If VA goes Obama, it's probably over. If PA goes McCain, likewise.

[Thor Simpson]

You think that if PA goes to McCain, Obama is done for? Even with Obama leading in so many other battlegrounds?

[gmanca]

Here's the fear scenario: the three states that in 04 went for Bush with less than 4 percent were Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Start with the 04 map and flip those three states to Obama and it's 269-269.

[DodgingCars]

Here's the fear scenario: the three states that in 04 went for Bush with less than 4 percent were Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Start with the 04 map and flip those three states to Obama and it's 269-269.

Colorado also went to Bush, but will likely go to Obama. Iowa is pretty solid blue right now. New Mexico is likely to go to Obama.

[Sierra Disc]

If Obama wins Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain is basically done for.

[DodgingCars]

If Obama wins Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain is basically done for.

538 has PA as +9.7 Obama and VA as +6.4 Obama. That's a lot of ground for McCain to make up.

RCP has PA as +11 Obama and VA as +7. Virginia was Bush's in 2004.

There are currently 10 2004 Bush states that are currently up for Obama. Of those RCP lists 5 still as toss ups (less than 5 points?), 4 as leaning Obama (5-8.9 points?), and one (Iowa) as solid Obama (currently +11.4)

I think Obama will easily get: Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and Iowa. It's possible he could get Florida and Ohio too, but those two are certainly the biggest battles (in terms of hard fights and EVs).

[DeputyDave]

I waiting to see which way California goes.

[starman9000]

I'm going to be in India and don't know what channels I will have available. Does anyone know if BBC or CNN international channels tend to have extensive coverage? Granted, I will hopefully be sleeping when most of the speculative early hours are going on, so it won't make much difference.

[Giantrobo]

< Will be too busy to watch due to stocking food, batteries, water, and porn. I've started to get paranoid about the possibility of civil unrest if Obama loses due to some "election weirdness".

[Michael Ballack]

Part of me wants to watch MSNBC since they are pro Obama and another part of me wants to watch Fox News if/when the republicans lose big time.

[Thor Simpson]

I'm going to be in India and don't know what channels I will have available. Does anyone know if BBC or CNN international channels tend to have extensive coverage? Granted, I will hopefully be sleeping when most of the speculative early hours are going on, so it won't make much difference.

I was in Italy during the 2000 election and the coverage seemed to be insanely detailed for an election in the US. People were gathered in bars and coffee shops watching.

Given India's interest in the US, I would imagine you will have no problem at all. BBC and CNN Inernational will likely be all over this.

[JasonF]

< Will be too busy to watch due to stocking food, batteries, water, and porn. I've started to get paranoid about the possibility of civil unrest if Obama loses due to some "election weirdness".

You're black. You're supposed to be one of the people rioting if Senator Obama loses. ;)

[Giantrobo]

You're black. You're supposed to be one of the people rioting if Senator Obama loses. ;)

Racist. rotfl

[Thor Simpson]

You're black. You're supposed to be one of the people rioting if Senator Obama loses. ;)

You're supposed to be driving him to the polls.

[daniel18]

I'll be watching Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. I really don't expect Obama to win Indiana and Ohio - I don't care what the polls say on these two.

[Yeti4623]

I think if Obama wins, he gets no more than 27 states. I want a landslide, but I don't think it's going to happen.

[Thor Simpson]

I think if Obama wins, he gets no more than 27 states.

Must be getting big ones then if McCain captures the other 30.

[The Bus]

You're supposed to be driving him to the polls.

Giantrobo is not homeless. :mad:

[Thor Simpson]

Golly, does he have ID and everything?

[Breakfast with Girls]

Some polls have Washington as leaning Obama but not a shoe-in. I have serious doubts about that. But could Washington State be one of the focal points very very late in the evening if it comes down to the wire rather than Florida and Ohio?Washington :lol: Heck, Gregoire is ahead in the gubernatorial polls and she's hinted pretty strongly that she would institute an <em>income tax</em>. If Rossi can't beat that, McCain sure as hell can't win Washington. He has as much a chance carrying Washington as he does Oregon.

Anyway, I'll watch election coverage until early in the evening when Obama will be declared winner, then go make dinner.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Fox already declared McCain the winner so why do I need to watch the news?

[Thor Simpson]

Fox already declared McCain the winner so why do I need to watch the news?

Because while McCain already won, the Liberal Media has a plot to somehow deliver the election to Obama any way.

[spainlinx0]

I'll be listening to Ron and Fez's live election day broadcast. I guess I'll put on whichever channel they are live-synching with.

[Red Dog]

VA polls close at 7 p.m. If VA is called relatively quickly for Obama, the only drama left in the evening is the push for 60 in the Senate.

[Venusian]

Fox already declared McCain the winner so why do I need to watch the news?

While that might be a joke, others have declared Obama the winner:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/obama-wins-newspaper-declares/

[wewantflair]

While that might be a joke, others have declared Obama the winner:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/obama-wins-newspaper-declares/

Did you read the link? The article in question is completely tongue in cheek.

[Shannon Nutt]

I think if Obama wins, he gets no more than 27 states. I want a landslide, but I don't think it's going to happen.

Doesn't that depend on which states he carries? I though landslides were determined by electorial count, not by number of states.

BTW, I think Obama might get 30 states if everything goes his way. I don't see more than that though, so 25 to 27 is a pretty good guess...which should please the GOP if he gets 25 or less...

I can see it now:

"You got the popular vote AND the electoral count, but you didn't win a majority of the states! You have no mandate!"

[Ginwen]

Washington :lol: Heck, Gregoire is ahead in the gubernatorial polls and she's hinted pretty strongly that she would institute an <em>income tax</em>. If Rossi can't beat that, McCain sure as hell can't win Washington. He has as much a chance carrying Washington as he does Oregon.

Anyway, I'll watch election coverage until early in the evening when Obama will be declared winner, then go make dinner.

You've been watching too many Rossi commercials...
"Gregoire has suggested she thinks an income tax is a good idea and that one eventually will become reality in Washington. But she also has said repeatedly that now is not the time and she has no intention of pushing for one."

[flagstone]

Tuesday night? The Shield.

[wendersfan]

I can see it now:

"You got the popular vote AND the electoral count, but you didn't win a majority of the states! You have no mandate!"Obama isn't running against Hillary Clinton in the general.

[VinVega]

You know what really angered me WRT McCain? He keeps saying we'll be up very late on Election night. That alone lost him my vote. :grunt:

[Thor Simpson]

You know what really angered me WRT McCain? He keeps saying we'll be up very late on Election night. That alone lost him my vote. :grunt:

Relax, "late" for a 70 year old is like 6:30.

[Thor Simpson]

Here's a pretty good chronologly, more what I was looking for:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186

In 2000 and 2004, the outcome of the presidential race was unknown into the wee hours of the morning (and indeed for several weeks thereafter in 2000). This time, it is possible that we will be able to guess the winner of the presidential race relatively early in the evening. Regardless, there will be plenty to watch Tuesday night, particularly for those who can appreciate a good slugfest in the Senate. And lest we count John McCain out, we need only remember the polling disasters that befell states like New Hampshire in this year's primaries. Here, then, is what I will be watching each hour on election night.

6 PM EST. Polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky.

Traditionally, these are the first states to get called by the networks, spotting the Republicans a quick 19 points in the Electoral College. This year, however, is liable to be a little bit different. Indiana is far more competitive than usual, and is probably the state with the greatest disparity in ground games: the Obama campaign has 42 field offices open there, whereas McCain neglected the state entirely until recently.

The responsible thing to do would be for the networks to hold off until at least 7 PM to project Indiana, when polls have closed in Gary and the northwestern part of the state just across the border from Chicago—where Obama hopes to rack up huge margins among black and working-class voters. If for some reason the state is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that probably means we're in for a long night. If, on the other hand, the state is called for Obama in the first hour after the polls close, that could indicate that the force of Obama's field operation has been underestimated, and that McCain is in for a catastrophically poor evening. (Speaking of which, Indiana's equivalent on the Senate side of things might in fact be Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell remains the favorite but where he could be vulnerable in the event of an anti-incumbent wave.)

7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.

Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we're really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain's favor.

Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.

On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire—closer than any current polls—we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect.

7:30 PM EST. Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina.

The dynamic to look for in these states involves early voting: more than twice as many people have voted early in North Carolina as did in 2004, and nearly three times as many in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio. Recent polling indicates that Obama may have a lead of 20-30 points among early voters in Ohio and a 10-20 point lead in North Carolina. If Republican turnout is at all depressed on Election Day—because of anything from bad weather to low morale—that may be too large a deficit for McCain to make up.

8 PM EST. Polls close in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Missouri.

Use caution when interpreting the results from these three states; Missouri in particular is notorious for nearly having been called prematurely both in the 2006 senate race and in this year's Democratic primary. In each state, Barack Obama will rack up huge vote totals in the cities (Philadelphia, Detroit and St. Louis respectively) while trying to hold his own in the rest of the state. If the city numbers come in first, Obama's margins will be exaggerated. If the rural numbers come in first, Obama's prospects will be much better than they appear.

But Pennsylvania in particular is the one to watch. If Barack Obama holds onto Pennsylvania—the only state where John McCain seems to have been closing the gap over the last week of the campaign—then winning virtually any red state (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri) would probably clinch the election for him.

9 PM EST. Polls close in Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Wisconsin and Minnesota should be called fairly quickly for Obama; if they aren't, that's a sign that something has gone truly wrong for the Democratic ticket. New Mexico looks like a safe Obama-state too, but since its vote-counting is notoriously slow, it may take longer to call. The key number to watch in Minnesota should be the difference between Obama's margin of victory and Al Franken's tally in his Senate race against Norm Coleman. If Franken is staying within 5-7 points of Obama as the vote begins to roll in—say, for example, Franken leads by 2 while Obama leads by 7—then Obama's coattails should carry Franken into the Senate. If not, the race may be Norm Coleman's to lose.

Colorado, meanwhile, is the last of what I'd characterize as this year's "Big Three" states (the others are Pennsylvania and Virginia). If Pennsylvania and Virginia have split their votes (and Obama hasn't picked up Ohio or Florida), then Obama probably wins if he wins Colorado, and loses if he doesn't.

10 PM EST. Polls close in Nevada, Iowa, Montana and New York.

This is the earliest point at which the race might be officially called for Barack Obama—there just aren't enough electoral votes out there, even if he's swept every swing state, to get him to 270 until New York's 31 come in. But assuming that we don't know the outcome of the election by this time, Nevada, where Obama has expanded his lead and where much of the state has already voted, could be Obama's ace in the hole—possibly offsetting a loss in Pennsylvania if paired with other pickups like Colorado and Virginia. The key area to watch in Montana is Washoe County (Reno), which John Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 but where the Obama campaign has registered thousands of new voters. If Obama wins Washoe, that means the state—and probably the country—is his.

11 PM EST. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington.

None of these states are in play in the presidential contest this year. The status of the race, however, could have a potential impact on California's Proposition 8, which seeks to protect the legal status of same-sex marriage. If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote against Prop 8.

Finally, even if the presidential race has been called by that point, Democrats looking for a little schadenfreude may want to stay up late until the midnight poll close in Alaska, where Ted Stevens is almost certain to be bounced from his Senate seat by Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Should the Democrats pull out an upset in Georgia or Kentucky, it may be Stevens' seat that gets them over the top to a 60-man majority.

[Wazootyman]

Relax, "late" for a 70 year old is like 6:30.

Right after Wheel of Fortune airs!

[Brian Shannon]

I'm curious what people think... at what point will we know when things are a done deal

I believe that some network will call the election for Obama at 7:01pm est.