Be On the Lookout for Blu Ray Player Deals

[chanster]

Sounds like patience may be a good thing for those looking for affordable blu ray player prices?

Independent analyst Rob Enderle said the declining prices underscored consumer’s tepid response to Blu-ray, a frame of mind he said won’t improve with the bleak economic headlines.

“There are increasing concerns that this holiday season will be [retail’s] last real shot with Blu-ray,” Enderle said. “No one wants to be stuck with inventory. We are likely to see several vendors purge inventory before the quarter is done.”

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/high-def/blu-ray-player-prices-keep-falling-13582

[GenPion]

That makes it sound like if Blu-ray doesn't sell well this holiday season it's done for.

Which is a joke. No one will want to go back to standard DVD after experiencing Blu-ray. People just need more time to cross over.

[GizmoDVD]

That makes it sound like if Blu-ray doesn't sell well this holiday season it's done for.

Which is a joke. No one will want to go back to standard DVD after experiencing Blu-ray. People just need more time to cross over.

To be fair "no one" is a very, very small amount of people. The majority of people still buy DVD. I would never go back to DVD (purchashing) if BD died besides a few small select titles.

[pro-bassoonist]

O, dear. Good old Rob Enderle...yet another doom piece.

Pro-B

[fumanstan]

Can't imagine this holiday season being the turning point between life or death. But i'm going to need a new player when i move in November, so if it means continued drops in player prices, cool beans :)

[JimRochester]

I would agree that this year without the format war, and the extra added year to build interest, retailers I'm sure were hoping for a banner year for Blu Ray players. Whether the economy is a cause or an effect remains to be seen however either way, retailers just haven't seen the massive switch to Blu they were expecting after the demise of HDDVD. Now with the economy in the toilet (laid off for the second time this year) I'm sure sales will be tepid at best. I'm in total agreement that the failure of Blu to light up the register this Christmas in no means manufacturers will give up on the format. Even with discounting, there is just more room to play with on $200 - $300 BD machines than $40 - $80 upconverting machines.

[Josh-da-man]

That makes it sound like if Blu-ray doesn't sell well this holiday season it's done for.

Sony will hang onto Blu-ray like grim death.

[GizmoDVD]

Sony will hang onto Blu-ray like grim death.

Sad but true. They still make UMD movies.

[Qui Gon Jim]

O, dear. Good old Rob Enderle...yet another doom piece.

Pro-B

Ah yes. Attack the messenger. Classic.

All year, all we heard was "Wait for this holiday season!" Now everyone is hedging their bets. If BD fails to move some units, you will see those Walmart sections reduce. You may see those low-end hardware players bow out. BD may very well fall victim to a bad economic cycle.

However, prices are dropping. PS3 is rumored to be getting a price drop in the coming weeks.

I agree with the sentiment that this is the make it or break it year for BD. This is the format's shot at the mainstream.

[pro-bassoonist]

Ah yes. Attack the messenger. Classic.

In this specific case the messenger has been equivalent of the message. A little research on what the messenger has predicted in the past quickly reveals so.


All year, all we heard was "Wait for this holiday season!" Now everyone is hedging their bets. If BD fails to move some units, you will see those Walmart sections reduce. You may see those low-end hardware players bow out. BD may very well fall victim to a bad economic cycle.

Will or may which one is it?



I agree with the sentiment that this is the make it or break it year for BD. This is the format's shot at the mainstream.

Very good. Another point we do not need to debate. We will simply have to comment on your prediction a year from now. And in case it might be unclear to you or anyone else my stance on the article is that it is completely off: Blu-ray hardware and software will sell well this Christmas and we will see even better numbers in 2009.

Pro-B

[droidguy1119]

I agree with the sentiment that this is the make it or break it year for BD. This is the format's shot at the mainstream.That is only half true. If it fails during the holidays, then I guess it would seem like that, but if it succeeds, it would make 2009 the year when we'll really see what's happening.

[GizmoDVD]

However, prices are dropping. PS3 is rumored to be getting a price drop in the coming weeks.


Actually its droppingto $359 at Blockbuster for the 40GB. Dunno if that includes other stores though.

[vjack99]

That makes it sound like if Blu-ray doesn't sell well this holiday season it's done for.

Which is a joke. No one will want to go back to standard DVD after experiencing Blu-ray. People just need more time to cross over.

I'm skeptical that more time is the answer. I think the added cost of Blu-ray media is the main obstacle.

[obidawsn]

All this makes me laugh. Whether you preferred HD DVD or Blu-Ray, you have to admit that the drops in prices of the HD DVD players were the right move. Toshiba knew that in order to get the majority of people into a product, they must have lower prices. That's why they let Wal-Mart out with these $99 A2's. They were hoping to get people to buy into HD DVD. It probably would have worked had they had a lot more software to back them up (not to mention more time to see if this plan would succeed). A lot of people jumped in HD DVD when the prices came down. Then they were stuck with a limited amount of movies to watch. The majority of the big movies were being released on Blu Ray. You had a select few, such as Transformers and Bourne Ultimatum, but that was about it. Imagine if it was this year. They would have had Iron Man, Indy 4, Kung Fu Panda, Incredible Hulk, Tropic Thunder and Mummy 3 (just a partial list of the Paramount and Universal titles that made it in the top 20 this year). And since Batman Begins was only released on HD DVD, there would have been a chance that the same would have been for Dark Knight. Last year BR had the luck of having the Sony, Fox and Disney titles that were huge last year where Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal didn't have many huge titles that were selling. That, on top of HD DVD being late in having good B1G1 sales on their movies, eventually led to BR selling more titles. Now we're stuck without HD DVD, and a format that is too expensive for the majority of people to get into.

With that said, I see BR player prices dropping. Granted they are mostly not profile 2.0, but they are dropping. They still have a way to go, but as has been mentioned many times before, previous formats have taken a few years to get down to the right price. It's just that everyone blamed HD DVD for BR not taking off, and expected BR to take off after HD DVD went away, but it hasn't. Had there not been a format war, would that given BR any more of an advantage by this point? Who knows? I mostly agree with the format war causing their to be a little competition and getting both sides to step up. We probably wouldn't have many of the features that BR is giving us, now, (at least through 2.0) had HD DVD not offered them first. And now people expect BR to fail if they don't get the prices down this year as HD DVD tried to do last year. Of course, I'm all for it. I'm sitting on an Enchanted Blu Ray (after using the $10 coupon in my DVD to get it for $15) because I really wanted it for when I got a Blu Ray player, and the coupon made it a good price being that Disney rarely marks their movies down much. Now I'm just waiting for an affordable Blu Ray player so I can play it along with other movies I want. I'm really having a hard time now, though, because I want to pick up Iron Man and other movies coming out in the next couple of months, but I don't see any reason to buy the DVD when I'll be wanting the BR in the next year or so. So if Blu Ray players come down to a decent price this holiday season, I might have to break down and get one. Right now, I'm not even sure if I'm worried about 2.0 since I don't have a great sound system, and I'm at a place where I can't hook it up to the internet, anyway (my internet is included where I live and they only give me one jack and won't let me hook a router up). Plus I don't know how many of those features I really care about, anyway. I guess it all depends on how much the players come down. But I know for sure I'll be out there if they drop one down to $100, even if it isn't 2.0. I'd be very surprised if it happened, but I would be there if it does.

[tofferman]

That makes it sound like if Blu-ray doesn't sell well this holiday season it's done for.

Which is a joke. No one will want to go back to standard DVD after experiencing Blu-ray. People just need more time to cross over.

For what its worth, I'm theoretically in the market for a Blu-Ray player and have been looking at both a standalone player as well as a PS3. However, whenever I see the prices ($20-35 per title not including a sale like Amazon has from time to time) for a particular title of interest, I shake my head and walk away.

Blu-Ray players may indeed drop to $100-200 this Holiday season, but the studio pricing for individual Blu-Ray movies is a joke, and a losing proposition in these tight economic times. A vast majority of consumers out there are more concerned with making their mortgage payment, car payment, day care payment, etc...let alone worrying about whether their job is secure.

A $25-35 Blu-Ray title, for most, is a luxury. If the studios think this format can survive at these price points, they are sadly mistaken.

[JimRochester]

For what its worth, I'm theoretically in the market for a Blu-Ray player and have been looking at both a standalone player as well as a PS3. However, whenever I see the prices ($20-35 per title not including a sale like Amazon has from time to time) for a particular title of interest, I shake my head and walk away.

Blu-Ray players may indeed drop to $100-200 this Holiday season, but the studio pricing for individual Blu-Ray movies is a joke, and a losing proposition in these tight economic times. A vast majority of consumers out there are more concerned with making their mortgage payment, car payment, day care payment, etc...let alone worrying about whether their job is secure.

A $25-35 Blu-Ray title, for most, is a luxury. If the studios think this format can survive at these price points, they are sadly mistaken.

Although I'll agree with much of what was said, LD's made it at 3 times the price 20 years ago. Although it never made it beyond a niche market, it sold enough to be viable. SD DVD had the advantage of the dot com boom where websites were dying to lose money just so they could brag of clientelle for advertising dollars. I would guess Blu will go beyond niche status but will be years from displacing SD DVD at these prices. Still too many people like my father in law What the hell do I need that for my VHS tapes were fine?

[Logic 7]

for what its worth, i'm theoretically in the market for a blu-ray player and have been looking at both a standalone player as well as a ps3. However, whenever i see the prices ($20-35 per title not including a sale like amazon has from time to time) for a particular title of interest, i shake my head and walk away.

Blu-ray players may indeed drop to $100-200 this holiday season, but the studio pricing for individual blu-ray movies is a joke, and a losing proposition in these tight economic times. A vast majority of consumers out there are more concerned with making their mortgage payment, car payment, day care payment, etc...let alone worrying about whether their job is secure.

A $25-35 blu-ray title, for most, is a luxury. If the studios think this format can survive at these price points, they are sadly mistaken.
+1

[mzupeman2]

I don't agree that this is a make it or break it year at all, it's not just blu-rays being affected by the economy, it's everything. Blu-ray penetration is getting better all the time, and the selection of discs is really nice already, and it's only going to continue to get better. More and more people still have to update their tv's at home, and they'll fall into the blu-ray market more and more as well. Blu-ray isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.

I, look forward to buying my first stand-alone player as soon as it's out... and I'm speaking of the Oppo.

[GenPion]

For what its worth, I'm theoretically in the market for a Blu-Ray player and have been looking at both a standalone player as well as a PS3. However, whenever I see the prices ($20-35 per title not including a sale like Amazon has from time to time) for a particular title of interest, I shake my head and walk away.

Blu-Ray players may indeed drop to $100-200 this Holiday season, but the studio pricing for individual Blu-Ray movies is a joke, and a losing proposition in these tight economic times. A vast majority of consumers out there are more concerned with making their mortgage payment, car payment, day care payment, etc...let alone worrying about whether their job is secure.

A $25-35 Blu-Ray title, for most, is a luxury. If the studios think this format can survive at these price points, they are sadly mistaken.

I agree that the prices on movies need to drop more in order to motivate people to invest in Blu-ray technology. However, if you look around these forums you should be able to find many good deals on Blu-ray's. The Columbia House B1G1 with Free Shipping that just occurred is a good example. While prices may be high at the moment decent sales are not impossible to find if you are willing to shop online. The average I have spent on Blu-ray titles (after having added up all my costs) is $13 a title. That's certainly more than what I have spent on DVD ($5 a title - including all my box sets!) but it's not so high a price for a new technology that is far superior to DVD (IMHO).

Prices will eventually drop. They always do. And when they do drop people will be ready and waiting to purchase their Blu-ray players and HDTV's.

[kenbenobi]

I'm skeptical that more time is the answer.
I think time WILL improve sales. But I base it on the February 29 digital TV switchover. Although people can get converter boxes, I feel many US homes will instead opt to upgrade to HDTV's this holiday season. And if they have a brand spankin' new HDTV, why not get a HD player!

But I should add that I'm anti-Blu. I bought into HD-DVD and own over 125 titles (mainly from clearance prices). If any store sells a BR player for $100, I'll jump on it, just so I can get titles I can't get on HD-DVD. But if BR fails, I won't shed a tear. However, I really don't think it will fail...

[GizmoDVD]

I think time WILL improve sales. But I base it on the February 29 digital TV switchover. Although people can get converter boxes, I feel many US homes will instead opt to upgrade to HDTV's this holiday season. And if they have a brand spankin' new HDTV, why not get a HD player!

But I should add that I'm anti-Blu. I bought into HD-DVD and own over 125 titles (mainly from clearance prices). If any store sells a BR player for $100, I'll jump on it, just so I can get titles I can't get on HD-DVD. But if BR fails, I won't shed a tear. However, I really don't think it will fail...

The switchover won't make much of a difference. If people were holding out getting a HDTV until that point, I don't see them spending the extra $200 on a BD player and $20+ on discs. Unless thy are given a free player (and even then, who says they will buy discs), the switchover won't even have an affect on BD SA or Disc sales.

[Qui Gon Jim]

The switchover won't make much of a difference. If people were holding out getting a HDTV until that point, I don't see them spending the extra $200 on a BD player and $20+ on discs. Unless thy are given a free player (and even then, who says they will buy discs), the switchover won't even have an affect on BD SA or Disc sales.[/QUOTE]

I agree. This is the most overplayed aspect of all of this. I also disagree that most people will be buying new sets. MOST people have nothing to worry about since they are getting the signal from cable or satellite and they need nothing new. It is only the OTA people who will be affected by this.

Although I'll agree with much of what was said, LD's made it at 3 times the price 20 years ago. Although it never made it beyond a niche market, it sold enough to be viable.
I don't think that a bad showing this year will mark the end of the format. I think it will relegate it to niche status, much like LD (and as I have been saying for years, that is not a bad thing).

I also agree that there are issues with the prices of media if they want to be mainstream. I really think that the studios are trying to close the barn doors after the horses are out. They have conditioned the public to expect things to eventually hit the sub-$10 mark pretty fast. I know it took DVD a long time to get there, but there were no sub-$10 bins full of VHS next to $30 versions of the same film.

[Michael Corvin]

I think the added cost of Blu-ray media is the main obstacle.




Blu-Ray players may indeed drop to $100-200 this Holiday season, but the studio pricing for individual Blu-Ray movies is a joke, and a losing proposition in these tight economic times. A vast majority of consumers out there are more concerned with making their mortgage payment, car payment, day care payment, etc...let alone worrying about whether their job is secure.

A $25-35 Blu-Ray title, for most, is a luxury. If the studios think this format can survive at these price points, they are sadly mistaken.

This two guys have hit the nail on the head. The studios could give away Blu-ray players with a purchase of a bag of M&Ms and it wouldn't matter. As long as BD discs are nearly twice as expensive as their DVD counterparts they won't make any in-roads to success. The divide is even wider on catalog titles. The title that always comes to mind for me is I, Robot. I can get a loaded SE DVD for $5 or I can get the Blu for $30. Sure as GenPion points out below, with a little legwork I can 'find' a deal on it, but DVD succeeded because of the impulse buy. $30 is not in impulse range.

While prices may be high at the moment decent sales are not impossible to find if you are willing to shop online.

This doesn't amount to a hill of beans. If a regular consumer can't walk into any store and get a decent deal on a movie they want, the format will never succeed.

[Mr. Cinema]

HD DVD's #1 fanboy, Rob Enderle, is an "Independent" analyst? :lol:

[Mr. Cinema]

Ah yes. Attack the messenger. Classic.

All year, all we heard was "Wait for this holiday season!" Now everyone is hedging their bets. If BD fails to move some units, you will see those Walmart sections reduce. You may see those low-end hardware players bow out. BD may very well fall victim to a bad economic cycle.

However, prices are dropping. PS3 is rumored to be getting a price drop in the coming weeks.

I agree with the sentiment that this is the make it or break it year for BD. This is the format's shot at the mainstream.
This isn't BD's make or break year. 2009 will be. Why? Because the format has only had full studio support for a whopping 3 months.

BD does need a strong Christmas going in to 2009 and I think it will be strong. The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Transformers, Indy 4, Wall-E, and others will be strong sellers throughout the year. Player prices are falling. Hopefully they reach the $200 price point on a consistent basis next year.

[jeffrey r]

BD does need a strong Christmas going in to 2009 and I think it will be strong.

I have plenty of HD-DVDs and Blu-rays, so I've bought into this, but I don't think I share your optimism. You do realize that the "holiday season" starts in like 2 months...The economy is in the tank, those with money are losing plenty of it in the market, those without money aren't feeling any better. Add to that the fact that at least in my world, I hear nobody talking about blu-ray, I hear no buzz about it, I hear nobody saying they are planning on jumping into blu-ray. Sure there are exceptions, but I don't see a big dramatic shift in favor of blu-ray in the next 2-3 months. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see it.

Many people that I know who actually collected DVDs have stopped for the most part, but as we've all discussed many times before, most people think that DVD is plenty good enough in any case. Unless blu-ray players become truly a "bargain" like HD-DVD players were last season, I don't see huge amounts of players being sold. And the terribly high disc prices at BB and other B&M stores is a big impediment. Your average person doesn't know about the Columbia House sale we just had.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. Should be interesting.

[GizmoDVD]

All year, all we heard was "Wait for this holiday season!" Now everyone is hedging their bets. If BD fails to move some units, you will see those Walmart sections reduce. You may see those low-end hardware players bow out. BD may very well fall victim to a bad economic cycle.

Yeah, we've been hearing it since HD DVD died and now...its being post-poned to next year. Wasn't this suppose to be BD's "breakout" year? Why is it being delayed?

[mzupeman2]

You know guys, DVD didn't just 'break out' overnight. I remember for a couple of years buying DVD's, it didn't really feel solidified, but I kept buying them anyway as many people did. I had no idea what would happen with my 'investment'. But we're much more into discussing all these things online now, so news travels faster, and people thanks to DVD have been spoiled into expecting perfection and quick turn around at every corner. Blu-ray is doing just fine. The sections at the stores I see them at just keep getting bigger and bigger, and I see people more often than not, browsing through the titles. But with a hampered economy, of course it's tough.

On top of the hampered economy, companies are still able to sell players at the price points that they're at. Once that part of the market slows down to a point where they're finding it pointless in doing so, and at the same time searching for cheaper ways to make their players, the prices are going to go down in order to reach the larger market. As long as they're making money selling players as it is, they're not going to just jump the prices down. They'll milk all they can for now, and then reduce later. I mean, me, I was waiting for player prices to hit $250... for a GOOD player that would be comparable to my PS3. I'm still waiting. But whoah, what's this? Oppo is making a blu-ray player? Now I'm willing to spend the $500-$800 they're supposedly going to ask.

And to top the discussion here, there ARE players that are in that lower price range, and they're only going to get cheaper. BUT, I think all the aficionados on a forum like this are looking at the higher end equipment with all the features, which is still very pricey, and the average joe six pack won't care about that and they'll take the cheapest player on the shelf, no matter how old the model.

Just give it time people, yeesh. HD ITSELF is still a growing market, let alone blu-ray.

[GizmoDVD]

You may want to check and see how many DVD players were sold 2.5 years into its life compared to Blu-ray. DVD, by far, outsold Blu-ray in ever single way.

Here, from TDB:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

At the end of 1999 4,019,389 were sold. Now, that does NOT include PC DVD-ROM drives or PS2 systems (since it did not launch yet). Wanna guess how many Stand alone BD players have sold? Less then 1 million today. I won't even show you how many PS2 systems sold in 2000...because that would just pull DVD farther ahead then Blu-ray. Lots of people like to point out how "similar" Blu-ray was to DVD when it first launched, but they are far from it. We were able to get DVDs for $1, hell several of them thanks to the dot com boom. I'm sure Mr Cinema, Jim, Chanster can vouch for that :lol:

[Qui Gon Jim]

This isn't BD's make or break year. 2009 will be. Why? Because the format has only had full studio support for a whopping 3 months.

BD does need a strong Christmas going in to 2009 and I think it will be strong. The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Transformers, Indy 4, Wall-E, and others will be strong sellers throughout the year. Player prices are falling. Hopefully they reach the $200 price point on a consistent basis next year.
I'm calling shenanigans. Every day since WB jumped ship, you have been saying "this holiday BD has no competition, wait and see" and now that things are bleak across the board, it's "wait till next year"? It has been about "wait till q4. Just Wait" all year.

You are far further in the tank than Rob Enderle, whoever he is.

[pro-bassoonist]

Many people that I know who actually collected DVDs have stopped for the most part, but as we've all discussed many times before, most people think that DVD is plenty good enough in any case.

You are probably closer to pinpointing the reasons why the BR market will move forward than you think:

1. DVD's revenue is declining. While it is still the main source of revenue for the majors its long-term viability is very much in doubt (and for those selected few who think that it isn't then you would have to pick your poison, are you seeing physical media dying or not? There are posters here who see DVD continue to be a viable market and at the same time downloadind taking over).

Downloading, much to the disappointment of a few members on this forum will not replace physical media any time soon, so something has to keep the physical market growing. Blu-ray is it. There isn't an alternative for the studios (as well as the manufacturers which is why they battled so fiercely) so no matter what the state of the economy is in the next 24 months Blu-ray will grow, how fast is the key question (in fact, those who follow closely how BR has evolved will notice that a strong international awareness is also preset and as of this moment international buyers are focused on the US market).

2. Beyond Blu-ray and the physical market there is uncertainty. A different physical media format will not be adopted by the studios and this is the end of all things material. Once again, this will probably force a few posters here to shift uncomfortably in their chairs but the notion that the studios will somehow miraculously embrace the interactive/online market and abandon Blu-ray requires one to have a very wild imagination, and more. The downloading "sales" percentages (you want to talk dismal?) are laughable, the infrastructure for a "mass" market isn't there, and propriety restrictions will be worked on for some years to come. This is reality, this is what is happening now. On top of everything else a downloading only market (what an insane idea) won't force the majority of those who drive the SDVD and BR markets to switch. On the opposite, anyone who believes that it is more likely that casual consumers will adopt downloading or whatever other non-physical technology might come along instantly and abandon the player-disc model in a foreseeable future are very much contradicting themselves. At least as far as the technical proficiency of these "mass" consumers is concerned which often times has been brought up here as a major obstacle for Blu-ray.

Pro-B

[Qui Gon Jim]

You may want to check and see how many DVD players were sold 2.5 years into its life compared to Blu-ray. DVD, by far, outsold Blu-ray in ever single way.

Here, from TDB:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

At the end of 1999 4,019,389 were sold. Now, that does NOT include PC DVD-ROM drives or PS2 systems (since it did not launch yet). Wanna guess how many Stand alone BD players have sold? Less then 1 million today. I won't even show you how many PS2 systems sold in 2000...because that would just pull DVD farther ahead then Blu-ray. Lots of people like to point out how "similar" Blu-ray was to DVD when it first launched, but they are far from it. We were able to get DVDs for $1, hell several of them thanks to the dot com boom. I'm sure Mr Cinema, Jim, Chanster can vouch for that :lol:

Absolutely. Also, stand alone sales are crap. PS3 is buoying the whole thing. As I said, I believe if BD does not stun at retail this year, then those ever-growing store displays will disappear as fast as the UMD ones did when sales were stagnant.

I would also like to see the word "HD DVD" banned from all discussion of the future of the BD format. Too often those in the BD tank fall back to finger pointing at what happened in the past. The format is dead. Time to move on and make a point without that crutch.

[pro-bassoonist]

Yeah, we've been hearing it since HD DVD died and now...its being post-poned to next year. Wasn't this suppose to be BD's "breakout" year? Why is it being delayed?

Then you should comment specifically on the words of those who made you hear whatever it is you heard. Not use generic statements and ask questions that do not necessitate any answers.

The people who claim that this is a make it or break it year for Blu-ray are the same people who haven't seen the format's progression clearly. Nothing surprising here, really. Especially, when Rob Enderle's biggest client is Microsoft. As I mentioned earlier his article is well in tune with his past predictions.

Pro-B

[GizmoDVD]

Do you only show up here when a negative article is posted?

[Qui Gon Jim]

You are probably closer to pinpointing the reasons why the BR market will move forward than you think:

1. DVD's revenue is declining. While it is still the main revenue for the majors its long-term viability is very much in doubt (and for those selected few who think that it isn't then you would have to pick your poison, are you seeing physical media dying or not? There are posters here who see DVD continue to be a viable market and at the same time downloadind taking over). Nope. Many of us see room for a physical format and a download medium. That physical format is here, and it is ubiquotous. DVD. What YOU see is BD totally replacing DVD. I think there is a greater chance of downloads replacing DVD than of BD replacing DVD. The reality of how I see it is that the three will live in harmony, with BD being the lest popular, but best quality.

Downloading, much to the disappointment of a few members on this forum will not replace physical media any time soon,
No one is saying soon. Unless you mean 10 years as soon. Again twisting and hyperbole to prove a point.


so something has to keep the physical market growing. Blu-ray is it. There isn't an alternative for the studios (as well as the manufacturers which is why they battled so fiercely) so no matter what the state of the economy is in the next 24 months major Blu-ray will either grow, how fast is the key question (in fact, those who follow closely how BR has evolved will notice that a strong international awareness is also preset and as of this moment international buyers are focused on the US market).

Someone has to buy them to make the market grow. If the economy continues along the same path, and BD prices remain a premium, then BD will level off. And again, that is not a bad thing. If YOU are comfortable with the prices you are paying, and YOU can afford it, why do you care if J6P buys BD eschewing all else? If they are making the movies you want, who gives a shit?

[Qui Gon Jim]

Do you only show up here when a negative article is posted?

Pretty much, yup.

[Hammer99]

This isn't BD's make or break year. 2009 will be. Why? Because the format has only had full studio support for a whopping 3 months.

BD does need a strong Christmas going in to 2009 and I think it will be strong. The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Transformers, Indy 4, Wall-E, and others will be strong sellers throughout the year. Player prices are falling. Hopefully they reach the $200 price point on a consistent basis next year.Regardless of whether it's this year, next year, or even 2010, the usual trolls who have no intention of supporting the format will show up, embarrass themselves, and continue to be a laughing stock within the HD community. So as long as I can keep buying BDs and enjoy threads like this, it's all good.-biggrin-

[GizmoDVD]

Regardless of whether it's this year, next year, or even 2010, the usual trolls who have no intention of supporting the format will show up, embarrass themselves, and continue to be a laughing stock within the HD community. So as long as I can keep buying BDs and enjoy threads like this, it's all good.-biggrin-

Yep! Silly us - buying discs and players and actually having an opinion on the format. We should all be hugs and kisses :lol:

[mzupeman2]

Absolutely. Also, stand alone sales are crap. PS3 is buoying the whole thing. As I said, I believe if BD does not stun at retail this year, then those ever-growing store displays will disappear as fast as the UMD ones did when sales were stagnant.

I would also like to see the word "HD DVD" banned from all discussion of the future of the BD format. Too often those in the BD tank fall back to finger pointing at what happened in the past. The format is dead. Time to move on and make a point without that crutch.

There's nothing wrong with the PS3 being the centerpiece for blu-ray right now. I bought a PS3 as a blu-ray player first, and a video game system second. I use it incredibly often for blu-rays, and it's been months since I've even contemplated putting a game in it. The PS3 is currently the best on the market, hopefully that will change sometime in the next year, but it's more than adequate. It's not like running DVD's on the old PS2.

Another thing I find startling, is how you're able to compare the penetration of blu-ray, to the penetration of UMD. UMD was something that was applicable only when using your PSP for travel, and a lot of people don't want to buy movies like that for a video game handheld system. Comparing what happened there, with the first lone high definition physical media that is blu-ray, is just silly and probably ignorant to boot.

Blu-ray isn't struggling. It's just not zipping off as fast as DVD did. There was a different economy back then, first of all. You can throw all the sales numbers you want at me. But take that economy compared to this economy, into consideration. Also take into consideration, DVD was able to benefit EVERYONE with a TV. Blu-ray, benefits those who already have HDTV's, and at this point, that's not everyone. If you want DVD type numbers for blu-ray right now, it's not going to happen.

The market for HDTV's is a slow penetration itself, as is the channels available that have HD. Does that mean that high definition TV's and high definition in general should be abandoned because it wasn't adopted as quickly as something else may have been? No. It's a growing market, and it's growing all the time. Eventually, most people will have HDTV's, and then, more and more cable companies will offer more and more high definition channels. People will see the change, and people will care for standard content less and less. DVD and blu-ray, two different ball-games. I'll reiterate once again that blu-ray is doing just fine, and the holiday season isn't make or break. If people want high def physical media, blu-ray is it. HD-DVD is dead and gone, and I was an HD-DVD supporter mind you. If another physical media disc comes out, it will fail. Blu-ray is an upgrade, and it's the only place for people to go to if people want to look for an upgrade.

Give it time. You can't, just CAN NOT, compare the whole DVD take-off to blu-ray, every circumstance is different in every way.

[Hammer99]

Yep! Silly us - buying discs and players and actually having an opinion on the format. We should all be hugs and kisses :lol:Your sig says that you have 98 BDs and 2 BD players, so I wouldn't say that you have no intentions of ever supporting the format.:)

[Qui Gon Jim]

Regardless of whether it's this year, next year, or even 2010, the usual trolls who have no intention of supporting the format will show up, embarrass themselves, and continue to be a laughing stock within the HD community. So as long as I can keep buying BDs and enjoy threads like this, it's all good.-biggrin-

Re you insinuating that I don't have a BD player and discs just because I don't post it for all the world to see? Silly goose.

[Qui Gon Jim]

There's nothing wrong with the PS3 being the centerpiece for blu-ray right now. I bought a PS3 as a blu-ray player first, and a video game system second. I use it incredibly often for blu-rays, and it's been months since I've even contemplated putting a game in it. The PS3 is currently the best on the market, hopefully that will change sometime in the next year, but it's more than adequate. It's not like running DVD's on the old PS2.

Another thing I find startling, is how you're able to compare the penetration of blu-ray, to the penetration of UMD. UMD was something that was applicable only when using your PSP for travel, and a lot of people don't want to buy movies like that for a video game handheld system. Comparing what happened there, with the first lone high definition physical media that is blu-ray, is just silly and probably ignorant to boot.

Blu-ray isn't struggling. It's just not zipping off as fast as DVD did. There was a different economy back then, first of all. You can throw all the sales numbers you want at me. But take that economy compared to this economy, into consideration. Also take into consideration, DVD was able to benefit EVERYONE with a TV. Blu-ray, benefits those who already have HDTV's, and at this point, that's not everyone. If you want DVD type numbers for blu-ray right now, it's not going to happen.

The market for HDTV's is a slow penetration itself, as is the channels available that have HD. Does that mean that high definition TV's and high definition in general should be abandoned because it wasn't adopted as quickly as something else may have been? No. It's a growing market, and it's growing all the time. Eventually, most people will have HDTV's, and then, more and more cable companies will offer more and more high definition channels. People will see the change, and people will care for standard content less and less. DVD and blu-ray, two different ball-games. I'll reiterate once again that blu-ray is doing just fine, and the holiday season isn't make or break. If people want high def physical media, blu-ray is it. HD-DVD is dead and gone, and I was an HD-DVD supporter mind you. If another physical media disc comes out, it will fail. Blu-ray is an upgrade, and it's the only place for people to go to if people want to look for an upgrade.

Give it time. You can't, just CAN NOT, compare the whole DVD take-off to blu-ray, every circumstance is different in every way.

FWIW, I agree with most of what you are saying here. The point I am trying to make here is that BD IS trying to gain a hold during a completely different economic environment than DVD had to deal with and thatis no fault of anyone involved with the format.

However, you can't look at the positive trends of BD vs DVD and ignore the negative ones to prove a point. I am big on full disclosure.

Finally, I am not really comparing BD to UMD on a "use" basis. When PSP launched, many of the big retailers had dedicated sections of UMD movies. Most of those retailers have abandoned their support because of what they consider to be weak sales. It COULD happen to BD if sales don't reach a level that a place like WalMart is used to. I can say that I have never seen anyone but me buying a BD anywhere, at any store.

And this brings me to a final point: I am not saying BD is done for. I am saying it is a POSSIBILITY that BD could be in trouble if this Q4 does not turn out well. I don't pretend (as some others do here) that my opinion on the future is what will come to pass. I feel it is better to discuss this stuff, even the negative aspects, in hopes that someone who has input is monitoring these discussions. Burying my head and acting like all is well with the format does no good whatsoever. I really do feel that the current pricing of BD is putting future success at risk. Perhaps that is the intended business model? Who knows?

[pro-bassoonist]

FWIW, I agree with most of what you are saying here. The point I am trying to make here is that BD IS trying to gain a hold during a completely different economic environment than DVD had to deal with and thatis no fault of anyone involved with the format.

However, you can't look at the positive trends of BD vs DVD and ignore the negative ones to prove a point. I am big on full disclosure.

Finally, I am not really comparing BD to UMD on a "use" basis. When PSP launched, many of the big retailers had dedicated sections of UMD movies. Most of those retailers have abandoned their support because of what they consider to be weak sales. It COULD happen to BD if sales don't reach a level that a place like WalMart is used to. I can say that I have never seen anyone but me buying a BD anywhere, at any store.

And this brings me to a final point: I am not saying BD is done for. I am saying it is a POSSIBILITY that BD could be in trouble if this Q4 does not turn out well. I don't pretend (as some others do here) that my opinion on the future is what will come to pass. I feel it is better to discuss this stuff, even the negative aspects, in hopes that someone who has input is monitoring these discussions. Burying my head and acting like all is well with the format does no good whatsoever. I really do feel that the current pricing of BD is putting future success at risk. Perhaps that is the intended business model? Who knows?

Other than generic talk I don't see how else one could perceive your posts. Regardless of how much you agree or disagree with what is said as every single point you have made so far has been a rehashed post-war rhetoric.

Furthermore, pretending that you are concerned about the format by asking rhetorical questions, just as another poster does, to channel nothing but the aged doom-and-gloom agenda does not support your case. (Or, it does but you have to place it in a different context). Not because those of us who disagree with you have their heads buried in the sand but because you talk about success and failure by continuing to speculate with generic ifs and mays. So far, I have not read a single sentence from you clarifying what success and failure means to you (and would mean to you this Holiday season) yet you seem to go into great lengths explaining what Walmart could do, how this will be a break it or make it Q4 for the format, etc. Not that your definitions would matter in the larger scheme of things but it would greatly help us understand why we are entering the "break it or make it" phase.

And to back all of your speculations the only argument you have offered thus far is I can say that I have never seen anyone but me buying a BD anywhere, at any store.

On the flip side it is very easy to argue why we are not heading where you think we are: there won't be another physical mass format and this much should be clear even to those who didn't follow the market during the last 18 months.

Therefore, it seems awfully naive to think that your words are questioned because of anything else but lack of credibility.

Pro-B

[mzupeman2]

Well I won't get further into this debate because I think at this point it has the potential to turn nasty, and I really don't want anything to do with that. However, I see plenty of people around the blu-ray sections in the stores I go to so....

[GizmoDVD]

However, I see plenty of people around the blu-ray sections in the stores I go to so....

As do I, but lets flip that a bit - how many people do you see looking at normal DVDs? How many people buy DVDs from Grocery stores or other places that don't sell Blu-ray? By far much, much more.

[mzupeman2]

.... Are you serious? You're comparing the penetration of blu-ray with DVD's at the current time? Alright, I'm out. Obviously there's not going to be any reasoning with you what-so-ever. If you're going to just get plain silly, I'm out. Have fun debating everyone.

[DVD Polizei]

Since this economic slowdown is not specific to Blu-ray enthusiasts, I'm going to preduct Blu-ray's success--however we define it I guess--is merely going to be postponed. The only way a product dies is if there is sufficient growth outside the product which is thought to be doomed and those consumers spend on the competing product. I just don't see this happening at the moment. Even $50 DVD players are going to be on the shelves, and will collect dust. We are not going to have a massive consumer buying frenzy we've seen in previous years and Blu-ray won't be the only product taking a hit.

We MIGHT see VOD become more popular during this economic problem, however.

[fumanstan]

Yikes, while I only started really reading these threads when HD-DVD died and I started buying Blu-ray's, it seems it's the same folks bantering over and over again. To me, it seems like a lot of it is due to the difference in expectations as far as how well Blu-ray should be doing to various parties. Is it supposed to be ahead of DVD's pace of growth? Is it supposed to be past that? And does HD-DVD's existence change the time line of said growth?

Seems like the gauge of Blu-ray's success really depends on how you view where it is and where it's supposed to be. I agree with mzupeman2 though; I don't think you can really compare Blu-ray with DVD, and that it's going to be here to stay for awhile as the primary High-Def format. When studios stop releasing new releases in Blu-ray day and date with DVD like they have lately, then i'll start to worry, since as far as I can tell that's been the case for the last few months.

I wish everyone would chill out though, it's really making this forum annoying to read when every article is nitpicked to death and the opinions of others are shut down over and over again. This stuff is hurting my mojo.