People always talk about the October Surprise. If we could somehow keep the current election from entering this one, what are some examples of such surprises (and their effects) in the past?
The way they are discussed, it is as if both campaigns always "save something up" for October that will doom the other candidate. It makes one eagerly await what is to come this year.
And yet, thinking back on previous elections... nothing really stands out?
wendersfan
09-17-08, 02:44 PM
In sort of a "reverse October surprise", in '68 Nixon had Anna Chennault disrupt the Paris peace talks so that the Democrats couldn't announce a peace treaty just prior to that election.
Thor Simpson
09-17-08, 02:50 PM
That's a pretty lame "surprise."
I can't think of anything earthshaking. It seems to me that an "October surprise" is nothing more than a typical news day... in October.
wendersfan
09-17-08, 02:54 PM
That's a pretty lame "surprise."It was a pretty lame election, and Nixon beat Humphrey by 500,000 votes. If anything encouraging had come out of those talks the week before the election there's no telling what might have happened.
al_bundy
09-17-08, 02:56 PM
1980, US hostages freed
Venusian
09-17-08, 03:00 PM
hostages were freed during the inauguration, right?
wendersfan
09-17-08, 03:01 PM
They came home the same day, yes.
General Zod
09-17-08, 03:01 PM
Any October military actions? Usually people rally around the flag and tend to support whomever is in office at the time.
sracer
09-17-08, 03:01 PM
hostages were freed during the inauguration, right?
October came late that year.
Thor Simpson
09-17-08, 03:05 PM
I remember when Saddam was captured, it was like an October surprise. I heard people lament that Bush would win for sure now. I guess October came 11 months early that year.
JasonF
09-17-08, 03:06 PM
There's a whole list of them here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise
The two that really stand out to me are president Reagan's alleged backroom deal to delay the hostage release in 1980 (this has been debunked) and the 2000 release of President Bush's DWI record.
Thor Simpson
09-17-08, 03:09 PM
The DWI record is the only thing that smacks of "October Surprisiness" to me. :(
Didn't even work.
bhk
09-17-08, 03:16 PM
The DWI record is the only thing that smacks of "October Surprisiness" to me. :(
Didn't even work.
It did work. Just not enough.
And the networks in 2000 pulled a Nov. surprise when they called Florida for Gore while the polls were still open.
classicman2
09-17-08, 03:26 PM
The DWI record is the only thing that smacks of "October Surprisiness" to me. :(
Didn't even work.
But it made the election a hell of lot closer than it would have been without the surprise.
matta
09-17-08, 03:28 PM
Sometimes, the "October Surprise" just means that candidates saved their best attack ads until October.
In terms of previous elections:
2006 - Mark Foley sex scandal broke
2004 - Osama's endorsement of Kerry
2000 - Bush's drunk driving arrest was released
1992 - Caspar Weinberger was implicated in Iran-Contra
1972 - Kissinger announced that there was "Peace at Hand" in Vietnam
1968 - LBJ announced that the bombing of Vietnam was over and that there was substantial progress towards peace
creekdipper
09-17-08, 11:28 PM
I predict that this year's "October Surprise" will be when Biden steps aside to allow Reggie Jackson onto the Dem ticket.
Although he might pull a Biden while stumping, saying something like, "I'm the straw that stirs the drink."
Shannon Nutt
09-18-08, 01:54 PM
I'm sure we'll see another Bin Laden video or audio tape in October. Nothing like the terrorists freaking out the country to get voters to hit the "panic" button and vote Republican again.
I'm sure Karl Rove is recording that tape as we speak. ;)
General Zod
09-18-08, 01:57 PM
I'm sure we'll see another Bin Laden video or audio tape in October. Nothing like the terrorists freaking out the country to get voters to hit the "panic" button and vote Republican again.
I'm sure Karl Rove is recording that tape as we speak. ;)
I knew someone would ignore the request to keep the current election out of this thread. I'm surprised it went as long as it did without a lame attack.
JasonF
09-18-08, 02:08 PM
I'm sure we'll see another Bin Laden video or audio tape in October. Nothing like the terrorists freaking out the country to get voters to hit the "panic" button and vote Republican again.
I'm sure Karl Rove is recording that tape as we speak. ;)
-ohbfrank- Thanks for the spoiler alert. Way to ruin the surprise. :sad:
Groucho
09-18-08, 02:08 PM
2004 -- reveal that Kerry is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
2000 -- reveal that Gore is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1996 -- reveal that Dole is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1992 -- OMG Clinton played the sax on ARSENIO!
1988 -- reveal that Dukakis is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1984 -- did the Democrats even run a guy this year?
Sean O'Hara
09-18-08, 02:52 PM
1984 -- did the Democrats even run a guy this year?
Wasn't it Walter Matthau and Geraldo Ferrer?
The Bus
09-18-08, 03:57 PM
Uhh... You're kidding right? It was Walter Mondale and Geraldo Rivera. Duh.
matta
09-18-08, 06:01 PM
Uhh... You're kidding right? It was Walter Mondale and Geraldo Rivera. Duh.
I would love to see Geraldo on a presidential ticket. "We're going to stop these dastardly deeds of deception that's permeated by preposterously pervasive pandering."
kvrdave
09-18-08, 06:14 PM
The DWI record is the only thing that smacks of "October Surprisiness" to me. :(
Didn't even work.
What are you talking about? Gore won, and everyone knows it.
classicman2
09-18-08, 06:30 PM
The DUI revelation made 'Florida' possible.
General Zod
09-18-08, 06:37 PM
I would love to see Geraldo on a presidential ticket.
"I found a secret room in the White House today. Apparently it hasn't been cracked open since John Adams was president! We'll be opening that room.. Who knows what treasures will be inside? What secrets will be inside? What REALLY happened during the formation of our country? Find out during my 4 hour special...."
creekdipper
09-19-08, 02:59 AM
"I found a secret room in the White House today. Apparently it hasn't been cracked open since John Adams was president! We'll be opening that room.. Who knows what treasures will be inside? What secrets will be inside? What REALLY happened during the formation of our country? Find out during my 4 hour special...."
Well, after all, Geraldo is something of a "National Treasure".
Breakfast with Girls
09-19-08, 09:04 PM
2004 -- reveal that Kerry is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
2000 -- reveal that Gore is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1996 -- reveal that Dole is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1992 -- OMG Clinton played the sax on ARSENIO!
1988 -- reveal that Dukakis is stiff, awkward, and impersonal
1984 -- did the Democrats even run a guy this year?I think I can guess who <b>Groucho</b> thinks is going to win in November.
Buy: