Buy:RoyalTea
09-16-08, 05:14 PM
In many flag football leagues I've participated in, a touchdown is worth 6 points. There usually isn't an extra point, but if a team can score a conversion from the 5 yard line, it's worth 1 point; if a team can score a conversion from the 10 yard line, it's worth 2 points.
My question is, don't you have to be completely retarded to ever go for one point?
In the NFL, I think the success rate for extra points is over 95%. The success rate for 2-point conversions is less than 40%. (someone correct me if I'm wrong). Assuming those probabilities are correct, the expected value of an extra point is 0.95 and the expected value of a conversion is 0.80. Which is why teams will usually kick the extra point if it's not late in the game.
So, in flag football, to go for one instead of two is saying that scoring a TD from 10 yards out is at least twice as difficult as scoring a TD from 5 yards. I think the extra five yards makes it even easier to go for two than to go for one. But most of the time, people instinctively go for one.
My question is, don't you have to be completely retarded to ever go for one point?
In the NFL, I think the success rate for extra points is over 95%. The success rate for 2-point conversions is less than 40%. (someone correct me if I'm wrong). Assuming those probabilities are correct, the expected value of an extra point is 0.95 and the expected value of a conversion is 0.80. Which is why teams will usually kick the extra point if it's not late in the game.
So, in flag football, to go for one instead of two is saying that scoring a TD from 10 yards out is at least twice as difficult as scoring a TD from 5 yards. I think the extra five yards makes it even easier to go for two than to go for one. But most of the time, people instinctively go for one.