Roulette Discussion

[C-Mart]

While recently in Vegas we got kind of hooked on Roulette. My wife has always liked Roulette, and I always thought it was too random.

Once while in Vegas with a friend he remarked "Look that one hit black 5 times! It has to hit red next." I looked at him and said "The wheel doesn't remember what numbers or colors come up, it could hit black 100 times in a row." Looking back I see that was a bit flawed (not untrue, just unlikely).

This most recent trip my wife was playing the numbers (spreading out about 8-12 chips per bet) and I was betting 4 on the 1-12. I thought it was especially funny when she would bet more than 8 chips and be hitting the quads which are a waste if betting more than $8. I started doing some math and realized that most bets have the same odds and the same payouts. Lets face it, you aren't going to bet the table minimum on just 1 number. If you bet$1 on 12 numbers and hit, you get back $36 (the $35 win and your original chip), which is a 2:1 payout - the same as betting on the 1-12, 13-24, or 25-36 spot, and the same odds of hitting, as you are betting on 12 numbers at a time. To get better payout you can bet less money or don't spread it out as much. So I started betting 8 $1 chips (fake - free online game) on a total of 13 numbers, never betting more than 2 numbers on one chip. If I hit a single number I get $36 (4.5:1 payout) and if I hit one of the split numbers then I get $18 back (2.25:1). I have better odds of hitting than the 12 number spaces as I am betting 13 numbers, and better payout if I hit (2.25:1 as opposed to 2:1).

Anyway, I know that no matter what the house has a 5% advantage, but I think I found a fun game that I can spread out the $$$ longer than if I were sitting at a blackjack table - and have a chance of winning a bigger single payout (short term I know), and I don't have to think very much to do it.

We got so enthralled with it that we bought a 14" used wheel off of eBay and I told my wife that I would put up my change jar as the bank against her any time. ;)

I tried a progressive betting system. (either doubling the bet on a loss or slowly bumping it up then bumping it back down after a win) With low bets it was great, as I was starting with $40 fake bucks I could get a lot out of a $2 minimum and usually ended up doubling my money. Once you start using one of those systems with larger sums it gets daunting to make the big bets.

I also think it is interesting that the numbers add up to 666, and the game is supposed to be the result of a deal with the Devil.

Any other things to discuss regarding Roulette?

[Red Dog]

I can't imagine discussing roulette except to say that you'll invariably see hot dumb chicks playing it rather than other games. That's not to say your wife is dumb.....or hot. ;)

[El Scorcho]

You can always find out how mathematically and logically retarded people are by watching and listening to them play roulette.

Not because it's a bad house game, but hearing things like you describe ("it hit black 5 times, it has to hit red next!"). And then seeing people move chips around all over the place.. 8-17-19-20-29-32 on the first roll that loses so they move to 1-16-18-27-33-36. Like that changes anything.

Personally, when I play this game (which is very rarely), I usually go with 9 chips. Play 4-corners bets on 6 of the chips and then play straight up numbers on the remaining 3. Gives me 27 of the 38 (71%) numbers in play, with 24 (63%) of the numbers acting as a way to sustain myself (break-even) while the remaining 3 (7.8%) giving me a big score for that roll.

Sure, the EV remains the same as betting 9 numbers straight up but one thing changes -- variance!

[C-Mart]

Personally, when I play this game (which is very rarely), I usually go with 9 chips. Play 4-corners bets on 6 of the chips and then play straight up numbers on the remaining 3. Gives me 27 of the 38 (71%) numbers in play, with 24 (63%) of the numbers acting as a way to sustain myself (break-even) while the remaining 3 (7.8%) giving me a big score for that roll.

Sure, the EV remains the same as betting 9 numbers straight up but one thing changes -- variance!

What is EV?

Sounds like a solid strategy as long as you hit one of your 3 individual numbers once in a while. Otherwise you are just breaking even or losing money... but I suppose that's the house edge which there is no way to break.

(I actually thought that betting 2 of the 3 12 number columns was a good way to go as I would win 2/3 of the time - ok, slightly less than 2/3 - but then I realized I was only getting a 3:2 payout and stopped that crap.

[El Scorcho]

EV stands for expected value. It's your long-term return on a bet if you played that same bet an infinite amount of times.

For instance, if you bet me $1 that a coin would be tails against my $2 that it would be heads, your EV would be

= you win $2 * 0.5 (the 50% of the time it's tails) = $1

- you lose $1 * 0.5 (the 50% of the time it's heads) = $0.50

= $0.50 per coin flip.

(if I ever gave someone 2-to-1 odds on a coin flip, please take my beer away and make sure i get home safely)

For roulette, since the house edge is something like 5%, your EV on a $1 bet is -$0.05. On every bet (outside of the 1-2-3-0-00 bet which is 7.8% house edge). On every roll. Forever.

Variance, though, is what keeps us coming back for more. We'll never reach the billion iterations of a bet in our lifetime to realize the true house edge of the game. But we'll go to a casino and play 50, 100, 200 (or whatever) bets of a game. The variance (I like to refer to it as volatility) of the game will help determine how big our wins will be and alternative, how big our losses will be.

For instance, a game like blackjack -- where payouts are 1-to-1 and each hand is almost a coin flip -- is a low variance game. You will likely lose but it will be a slow painful death if you keep your bets constant. Or you may win a little.

Contrast that with a game that has a large payout (like Let It Ride which pays a shitload if you hit a royal flush). You can lose pretty quickly but if you hit that one sweet hand, you're up a ton and only in a few hands. In the end, though, the house edge will remain the same after an infinite amount of hands.

It's those few times we've been on the good side of variance and left a trip with several hundreds or thousands in our pocket that keeps us coming back and dealing with the bad side. :)

[Deftones]

i don't think el scorcho has played roulette in years, ever since i made fun of him non-stop for doing so.

[atari2600]

roulette is fun to play but there really is no strategy. you could be blind and be just as good or bad at it than anyone else.

[El Scorcho]

True, I haven't really played more than a handful of spins in years. But what Deftones doesn't state is that if he ran as sick hot at Roulette as I did back in 2001-02, he'd be camped at those tables trying to keep the run going as well.

My first ever time in a major casino in Reno the day after I turned 21, I sat at a $0.25 chip Roulette wheel for 11 hours and walked (actually, staggered away drunk as hell) with $450.

[Jacoby Ellsbury]

Just my bodog.com roulette story where I was playing online which I rarely play casino online. I rarely play as I fear something like this might happen: An even numbered black number came up 12+ times in a row and it was black 19 times in a row and I kept betting red before I finally lost all my money. The longest run I ever saw in a casino was around 10-12 this was 19 blacks in a row on bodog the last 12 being even. I typically go against a streak, if it goes 3 times in a row I bet the opposite, whether its black/red, even/odd, first 18/last 18, when in actuallity you should probably ride the wave. I had some success my first time playing, winning about $350 at foxwoods, Ive probably lost the 5 or so times since.

[stevevt]

Just my bodog.com roulette story where I was playing online which I rarely play casino online. I rarely play as I fear something like this might happen: An even numbered black number came up 12+ times in a row and it was black 19 times in a row and I kept betting red before I finally lost all my money. The longest run I ever saw in a casino was around 10-12 this was 19 blacks in a row on bodog the last 12 being even. I typically go against a streak, if it goes 3 times in a row I bet the opposite, whether its black/red, even/odd, first 18/last 18, when in actuallity it doesn't matter in any way what you do.

Fixed it for ya.

[Jacoby Ellsbury]

you're not factoring luck. Probability doesnt apply when it comes to roulette

[Dean Kousoulas]

Roulette is my game of choice at a casino. Just something about the rush you get when that ball slows down and picks a number to land in...

I always play the outsides. It's as close to a coinflip as you are going to get, and at least you get half your bet back when it lands on 0/00. Last time I was in AC, my friend and I put down $100 each and turned it into $1,000 in about a half hour. A very lucky run!

One of the smartest things the casino ever did was putting up that board with the last 20 or so numbers that hit. I love watching the people pay attention to it, thinking it will give them a little hint on what will come out next.

[atari2600]

you're not factoring luck. Probability doesnt apply when it comes to roulette

you're kidding, right?

[C-Mart]

My math on my chosen bet pattern was way off. Turns out the payout is only 1.25:1 on the split bets and only 3.5:1 on the single number bets, yet I'm only betting on 13 numbers total. I guess red/black or odd/even, etc... are probably the best bets in the game... but nothing beats those moments when your number hits and you get 35 chips stacked on that 1 chip bet.


you're not factoring luck. Probability doesnt apply when it comes to roulette


you're kidding, right?


In the short term it doesn't have much effect. Only when you get thousands or millions of spins do the effects of probability truly apply. For the small amount of time you are sitting at the wheel, it could roll the same number over and over again.

[El Scorcho]

My math on my chosen bet pattern was way off. Turns out the payout is only 1.25:1 on the split bets and only 3.5:1 on the single number bets, yet I'm only betting on 13 numbers total. I guess red/black or odd/even, etc... are probably the best bets in the game... but nothing beats those moments when your number hits and you get 35 chips stacked on that 1 chip bet.


wrong, each and every bet on the table with the exception of the lone 0-00-1-2-3 combination bet carries the exact same house edge (5.26%). Split bets, single number bets, corner bets, outside bets, inside bets.. they're all the same!

[atari2600]

My math on my chosen bet pattern was way off. Turns out the payout is only 1.25:1 on the split bets and only 3.5:1 on the single number bets, yet I'm only betting on 13 numbers total. I guess red/black or odd/even, etc... are probably the best bets in the game... but nothing beats those moments when your number hits and you get 35 chips stacked on that 1 chip bet.




In the short term it doesn't have much effect. Only when you get thousands or millions of spins do the effects of probability truly apply. For the small amount of time you are sitting at the wheel, it could roll the same number over and over again.

i know but on any given spin the probability of hitting a number, color, even/odd is always the same.

[C-Mart]

wrong, each and every bet on the table with the exception of the lone 0-00-1-2-3 combination bet carries the exact same house edge (5.26%). Split bets, single number bets, corner bets, outside bets, inside bets.. they're all the same!

Right, but I had mistakenly thought that I found a payout better than the 2:1 betting on one of the 12-number columns because I was getting slightly more than 2:1 and betting on a total of 13 numbers. The payout was actually only slightly better than 1:1. In actuality it is like you say that every bet is the same you just have to balance how much you want to win/lose with how quickly you want to win/lose it.

i know but on any given spin the probability of hitting a number, color, even/odd is always the same.

Right, but usually when people talk about Roulette and probability they mean something along the lines of "It hit red 5 times, there's a higher probability that it will hit black next time" when in reality it is like you say - the probability of hitting any given space on the wheel is exactly the same on any given spin of the wheel.

I'm getting a roulette wheel, and every time we play I'm going to keep track of what numbers come up and track it in an excel sheet. I did the same thing once with a 2d6 roll. I rolled hundreds of times and came up with the bell shape that you would expect.

[Adrian_Monk]

I'm getting a roulette wheel, and every time we play I'm going to keep track of what numbers come up and track it in an excel sheet. I did the same thing once with a 2d6 roll. I rolled hundreds of times and came up with the bell shape that you would expect.

Actually getting a roulette wheel seems terribly unnecessary to perform an experiment since you can just use a roulette simulation program online. Of course that is unnecessay as well since you are making a graph of 38 outcomes (assuming a wheel with 0 and 00) which are completely equal in likelihood. Your graph would simply be a horizontal line.

[C-Mart]

Actually getting a roulette wheel seems terribly unnecessary to perform an experiment since you can just use a roulette simulation program online. Of course that is unnecessay as well since you are making a graph of 38 outcomes (assuming a wheel with 0 and 00) which are completely equal in likelihood. Your graph would simply be a horizontal line.

I'm not getting a roulette wheel to perform an experiment. I'm getting a roulette wheel because both my wife and myself enjoyed playing roulette and would like to be able to do so at home. And the computer roulette is just not the same as having the real thing.

[Adrian_Monk]

Agreed, but what is the excel spreadsheet for? Just to see how far off your particular outcomes are from the expected outcomes?

[C-Mart]

Agreed, but what is the excel spreadsheet for? Just to see how far off your particular outcomes are from the expected outcomes?

Pretty much. You don't get much chance when at a casino for a couple hours to truly track a roulette wheel. Perhaps the one I get will have a weakness that I can exploit. It is used after all. :D

[Adrian_Monk]

Pretty much. You don't get much chance when at a casino for a couple hours to truly track a roulette wheel. Perhaps the one I get will have a weakness that I can exploit. It is used after all. :D

Hahaha... Hey then you can beat your wife when you guys play together! Of course winning money from her is just like taking money from yourself.... Bummer. :|

[atari2600]

R
Right, but usually when people talk about Roulette and probability they mean something along the lines of "It hit red 5 times, there's a higher probability that it will hit black next time" when in reality it is like you say - the probability of hitting any given space on the wheel is exactly the same on any given spin of the wheel.


oh i see what you are talking about. its funny that people can actually think that. i never look at that board with the past numbers on it.

[C-Mart]

Hahaha... Hey then you can beat your wife when you guys play together! Of course winning money from her is just like taking money from yourself.... Bummer. :|

Very true. I got the wheel and there is a weakness, though I didn't need an excel sheet to find it. The metal wheel piece is slightly bent along the edge, and sometimes the ball will sit in the groove between the wheel and the base. When it does, sometimes it will find that bent part and stay there, dropping only when the wheel gets really slow - right into either the 19, 8, or 12.

[El Scorcho]

So you bought a heavily biased wheel and are now going to run 10,000 iterations on it for what purpose again? :lol:

[C-Mart]

Because I can?
Because its there?
Because its fun?

Actually I probably won't - too much work

[Alyoshka]

roulette is fun to play but there really is no strategy. you could be blind and be just as good or bad at it than anyone else.

I guess one of the fun things about it is that you can ask people walking by what their birthday is and get them involved. Put a chip on that number and strike up a conversation. It's a lot easier to meet people that way then at the blackjack table. Although, I prefer playing blackjack.

[Vandelay_Inds]

While there is no strategy whatsoever involved in roulette and every bet is as favorable as any other, I find it is the most enjoyable casino game. Probably precisely because of its neutrality, it can create the illusion of foretelling its outcome.

[atari2600]

I guess one of the fun things about it is that you can ask people walking by what their birthday is and get them involved. Put a chip on that number and strike up a conversation. It's a lot easier to meet people that way then at the blackjack table. Although, I prefer playing blackjack.

hey dont get me wrong - i play roulette. i enjoy it. i just know there is no strategy behind it.

[Adrian_Monk]

There is one important strategic facet to roulette. Since every bet available has the same EV, the difference between the bets is variance. If you bet in such a fashion to make the variance = 0, then you will simply lose an amount equal to the house edge on every single spin. This is accomplished by betting every number (including 0, 00) equally. If you choose (foolishly) to use this betting strategy, then your expectation will be the same as anyone else who plays roulette, but you can't ever win. This is not the only strategy that makes it impossible to win either. Clearly, there is some strategy to roulette after all.

[mgbfan]

I feel dumber for having read that.

[Lunatikk]

use the Martingale betting system