Box Office Predictions: The Dark Knight

[hapgilmore]

Opening Weekend: 160 mil

Total Domestic: 350 mil

[Cornelius1047]

I'm probably gonna be proven ridiculously wrong and misguided, but I'm calling it. This will beat Spider-Man 3 and open at $154.7 million. Total domestic? I'll go with $335 million.

K

[kstublen]

160 million domestic.

EDIT: That total was meant to reflect opening weekend.

[tucker]

Opening Weekend: 167.3 mil

Total Domestic: 391 mil

IMAX: 92 mil


i will adjust numbers one more time prior to tdk release

[Patman]

$158 million opening weekend.

$408 million total domestic.

[outcastja]

Friday: $64 mil
Saturday: $52 mil
Sunday: $41 mil
Opening Weekendl: $157 mil

Total Domestic: $346 mil

[RoboDad]

My guess (domestic):

Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m

The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.

[Seantn]

People certainly have some high expectations for this film. Will you all deem it a "disapointment" if it 'only' makes something like $225-250 million (which would be great)?

[Doc MacGyver]

My guess (domestic):

Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m

The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.


Don't forget, though, that there are basically an entire day's worth of sold-out showings at many theater starting at midnight on Thursday and rocking straight through the night into Friday. However, these gains will probably be offset by the 2.5 hour runtime causing fewer showings overall.

With the buzz for this, though, the movie is going to do well. It will certainly earn enough to be considered a success AND it's critical buzz is off the charts. It will warrent a sequel and it will (from the sound of it) give us THE DEFINITIVE Batman film.

Anything on top of that is gravy.


-Doc

[chris_sc77]

Well, Im gonna say:
3-Day Opening Weekend: $156 million
Overall Domestic: $437 million
international Box Office: $363 million

TOTAL= $800 million

[fitprod]

Opening weekend: $85 Million
Full domestic run: $175

fitprod

[scott1598]

opening: $115-$125, would love to see $150
total dom: $350-$375, would love to see over $400

i think the very dark storyline will prevent many parents who took kids to the Spideys from this one (at least on opening).

[Jackskeleton]

Imax 3 am shows have been selling out... yeah, this is going to smash the spider.

[Shannon Nutt]

Opening Weekend: $83 million
Total Domestic: $230 million

I don't doubt this is going to be a GREAT movie...what I doubt is that a large portion of the mainstream will go to see it again, since it's more of an epic drama than "summer popcorn flick'. A lot of people are going to be turned off by it.

Keep in mind, folks that if THE DARK KNIGHT rakes in close to $100 million on opening weekend, that will be TWICE what BATMAN BEGINS did on its opening weekend.

[fumanstan]

Opening $130 million weekend.
Total Domestic - $340 million

[dhmac]

My (soon to be way far) prediction:

Opening Weekend Gross: $120 million

Total Domestic Gross: $260 million

[KillerCannibal]

Using the Pirates films as a barometer to gauge the success of TDK, since DMC was huge thanks to pent-up demand for a further tale:

Opening weekend: $162m
Domestic: $377m (I think it could have a shot at breaking $400. PotC: DMC did and that was a long film too)
Overseas: $390m

Overall: $767m

[Autotelik]

Opening 130mil
Total Domestic 330mil

[Daytripper]

Hey, I'm all over this. But didn't the last one make just 200M plus some change? Is it really possible this can make 100 plus million more? I was actually surprised "Begins" did as little business as it did. I just wrote it off as too dark for most (??) And this looks ten times darker. Goody :) So I just don't know anymore.

[chris_sc77]

Hey, I'm all over this. But didn't the last one make just 200M plus some change? Is it really possible this can make 100 plus million more? I was actually surprised "Begins" did as little business as it did. I just wrote it off as too dark for most (??) And this looks ten times darker. Goody :) So I just don't know anymore.
Well, I think anticipation for this is above the level of Batman Begins.
It's not crazy to think this could do $100 million more than Batman Begins or possibly twice what BB did.
Other sequels that did quite a bit more than the original/predecessor:
Austin Powers 2
Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Rambo 2
T2
Matrix 2

[Mr. Cinema]

I think Spider-man 3 will still have the opening weekend record after TDK debuts. The big difference between these 2 films is Spidey 3 kicked off the Summer season with 0 competition. TDK will still be dealing with several Summer movies playing in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th weekends. The following week, Step Brothers and The X-Files both open. The week after that, The Mummy 3 opens. All of those films could do very well on opening weekend.


Spider-man 3 opening weekend numbers:

It earned $151 million, the rest of the top 10 combined for about $27.5 million.

Spider-man 3's first 3 day earnings:

Friday: $59.8 million
Saturday: $51.3 million
Sunday: $39.8 million

The numbers above are also the highest single day totals ever for those specific days.

I think TDK will beat the original Spider-man's opening and come in with $115 million. It'll end up at or very close to $300 million. Indy 4 wins the Summer box office competition.

On a side note, Tim Burton's Batman earned $251 million in the US during its run. Adjusted for inflation, it comes to $433 million, which puts it at #47 all-time.

[Brack]

I think anyone who's predicting $400m+ domestically is out of their mind, though I'd love to be proven wrong.

[slabinskia]

I will go with $120m opening weekend. I am going to say 415m domestic.

While this is a darker film and it has a long runtime, it is still a PG-13 rated batman movie so it can't be THAT dark and long runtimes have not stopped movies in the past.

[Mr.Scary]

160 million domestic.

:lol: :whofart:

Really?


I'll go with 270 domestic.

[BJacks]

While this is a darker film and it has a long runtime, it is still a PG-13 rated batman movie so it can't be THAT dark and long runtimes have not stopped movies in the past.Don't be fooled by the rating (which means nothing nowadays in terms of violence)...TDK is an extremely dark film. Heath Ledger can make himself scarier than Jason Voorhees just with his voice and laughter.

[johnnysd]

I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.

[Daytripper]

I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.

Actually, I think the opening weekend will break all records. But will it continue to make money? The reviews so far are pretty damn stellar. So this has potential.

[LivingINClip]

Well, the way I figure it is..

Midnight shows are selling out. 3:00 am shows were ordered. Those sold out and now places are having 6:00 am showings. That in my opinion, gives it a huge chance to break a lot of records.

It'll beat Iron Man easy.

[raven56706]

i'll go out in a limb and say over $120 mil.....i expect this movie to be big

[GreenVulture]

I think anyone who's predicting $400m+ domestically is out of their mind..
Anybody quoting over $250 million domestic is out of their mind. It'll open big for sure, but there is a bit of competition coming Bruce Wayne's way in the next few weeks or so.

[Rizor]

I'm gonna go with an opening of about $135 mill and a domestic run of about $350 mill.

[dogmatica]

Two. Dollars.

[BJacks]

I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.There's no way in hell TDK does less numbers than Iron Man. TDK has bigger stars, considerably more mainstream buzz, a bigger franchise name and near-universal critical acclaim.

[Brack]

Anybody quoting over $250 million domestic is out of their mind. It'll open big for sure, but there is a bit of competition coming Bruce Wayne's way in the next few weeks or so.

I dunno. It should clear BB's gross, as well as adding at least $50m due to high anticipation and Ledger's death.

[Ram]

Opening Weekend: $160 million

Total Domestic: $360-375 million

Worldwide: $550-575 million

Oh Yeah. Believe the hype! :johnwoo:

[fumanstan]

Anybody quoting over $250 million domestic is out of their mind. It'll open big for sure, but there is a bit of competition coming Bruce Wayne's way in the next few weeks or so.

Really? I'd say $225-250 is about the minimum I would expect from this movie. Considering the first movie made $200 million, there's absolutely no chance it will make less then that for a lot of reasons.

The first has received a ton of good word of mouth on DVD and TV broadcasts, and there's a ton of more interest then in the new franchise since the first movie came out. Anyone that was confused about a new Batman versus the last Schumacher movies is long gone.

Early reviews have been spectacular.

Heath's death has garnered a lot of interest, especially with articles and reviews commenting on potential Oscar nominations.

IMAX and midnight showings already selling out points to a huge opening.

I've been seeing TV spots everywhere, and the marketing push for this seems bigger, better, badder then before.

Really, i'd be surprised if this doesn't hit at least $250 million.

[Brent L]

I'm just going to go all out wacky here:

Opening Weekend: $170 million

Total Domestic: $375-400 million

This movie is going to be huge, and I think it'll do more than many people expect. The 12am showings are selling out, 3am showings are selling out, and now they're being forced to offer 6am showings.

[GreenVulture]

Well, since you've made a list of why you think it'll easily clear $250 million, let me make my own list of why it might struggle to hit that amount:

- Yes, Ledger's death will undoubtedly bring in lots of curious moviegoers, but these are people who will probably watch the movie once and leave it at that. In other words, they can't be counted on for repeat business.

- It's no secret that Americans are cutting back on luxuries and socking away their disposable income rather than spending it. $10 for one ticket might not sound like much, but when you add in extra tickets for spouses/children, refreshments, etc., you could easily be looking at $50 or so just for one movie; that is a lot (hell, I'm looking at spending $25 for an IMAX ticket and riding BART, and that's just for me).

- From the reviews, The Dark Knight is a violent, dark, downbeat movie. Movies of this type rarely do very well at the box office, regardless of the subject matter.

- People here and in other places are falling into the trap of thinking that whatever they obsess over, the general public will. This has been proven time and time again to be a false and quite stupid assumption.

- Just look at the general pattern most summer movies are taking this year: giant opening, HUGE numbers, and then a steep decline in attendance the following week, with the numbers gradually shrinking with each passing week. Indiana Jones eventually slumped over the $300 million mark (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm), but it took almost 2 months to do that, and I would argue that it has more broad appeal than Batman, and a huge fanbase.

- Like I mentioned before, there is competition on the way: The X-Files, the newest teamup between Will Ferrell and The Guy Who Directed Anchorman and Talladega Nights*, the newest comedy from the Judd Apatow Army, and The Mummy 3, all of which will have the same appeal to most moviegoers as TDK does**. Think about it: you're an average person who probably goes to a movie once a week (or every other week)...why would you go see TDK again when you can go see a newer movie?

But I wouldn't worry; I doubt Dark Knight is going to cost anyone at Warners their job.

(* - Yes, I know the director is Adam McKay. But most people don't.)

(** - I would probably throw in Mamma Mia! to this list, but I doubt the audiences for that and TDK will overlap that much. Either way, it was a very smart counterprogramming move.)

[Deftones]

I can't see it beating Spiderman 3's records, or any other for that matter. Maybe it'll hit $300 million, but I think that will be a stretch due to the dark subject matter and content. I'd love for this movie to kick the ass out of all records, but it just won't happen.

[majorjoe23]

I would love to be proven wrong, but I don't see this making over $300 million domestic. I'm sure it will be awesome, but Spider-Man and Iron Man had the advantage of not being incredibly dark.

$275 is my realistic domestic guess.

[mcfly]

Spider-Man 3 has the biggest 3-day.. what does TDK have to make to beat that?

[anyanka323]

Friday - $45 million
Overall Opening Weekend - $100 million
Overall - $325 million

Mamma Mia is good counterprogramming to The Dark Knight. I plan on seeing both movies next week if I can.

[BJacks]

Indiana Jones eventually slumped over the $300 million mark (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm), but it took almost 2 months to do that, and I would argue that it has more broad appeal than Batman, and a huge fanbase.In 2008 -- among audiences that really deliver (and deliver with repeat viewings) -- I think Batman has greater universal appeal than Indiana Jones, a character that was out of the spotlight for 19 years. Young people (and especially women) don't care about Harrison Ford, they do care about Christian Bale and Heath Ledger. And Michael Caine will bring in their horndog grandmothers, so it really hits on all cylinders.

[outcastja]

If it doesn't beat Spidey's opening weekend, I have a good feeling it will at least beat the opening day. Like people here have said, 3:00am showings are sold out, that didn't even happen for Spidey 3 around here in SoCal. And there are tons of reports from websites saying, this is selling at a record pace at movietickets and on fandango.

I don't think the dark nature of the film or running time will hurt the opening weekend either. It's still being promoted for kids with all the toys (just look at the display at Toys R Us (http://bp0.blogger.com/_2kjisMm3M9Y/SGzOAJiiuUI/AAAAAAAAEFM/xP4HIImvLwI/s1600/toysrus%2Bdark%2Bknight%2Bdisplay%2Bokla.jpg) ), the Dominos tie-ins, Reese's Peanutbutter cups, etc. And the movie is only 10 minutes longer than Spidey 3.

[Cornelius1047]

Spider-Man 3 has the biggest 3-day.. what does TDK have to make to beat that?

Spider-Man 3 opened at $151 million, I believe. So let's say $152 million. I have faith it can do that, but I've been proven wrong before. I certainly never expected Pirates 2 to beat the original Spider-Man.

K

[redrum]

i don't remember them having showings at 3 and 5 in the morning for spiderman 3.

this is gonna make a lot of money.

[GreenVulture]

In 2008 -- among audiences that really deliver (and deliver with repeat viewings) -- I think Batman has greater universal appeal than Indiana Jones, a character that was out of the spotlight for 19 years. Young people (and especially women) don't care about Harrison Ford, they do care about Christian Bale and Heath Ledger. And Michael Caine will bring in their horndog grandmothers, so it really hits on all cylinders.
Why yes, what woman wouldn't swoon at the sight of Christian Bale in an outfit that covers and obscures his features from head to toe. And really, what female wouldn't have sweet, romantic dreams later that night after seeing a dead actor portraying a man caked in white makeup, with stringy green hair and a mouth with a horrible scar on either side of his face, whose favorite hobby is murdering people in between bouts of acting completely insane.

As for Michael Caine, I suppose there's three or four women living somewhere in England who simply must go see anything he's in, so Nolan obviously used his financial smarts when casting Alfred.

The majority of this people are seeing the movie for two things: because they are morbidly fascinated with Ledger's death, and because it's Batman, not because it's Christian Bale. Any tall, physically fit male actor with a modicum of acting talent could have been squeezed into the Batsuit, and you would have had the same box office results Warners got on Begins and will get on Dark Knight.

[DthRdrX]

It should break 250 million easy. I think Hellboy is probably going to suffer the most as a result of the close release dates. I wouldn't be surprised if the X-files and The Mummy bomb.

[Mr. Cinema]

Spider-Man 3 has the biggest 3-day.. what does TDK have to make to beat that?
I posted Spidey's individual 3 day numbers on page 1, which are huge.

[majorjoe23]

It should break 250 million easy. I think Hellboy is probably going to suffer the most as a result of the close release dates. I wouldn't be surprised if the X-files and The Mummy bomb.

I expect the Mummy to bomb. Is Brendan Fraser a big enough star that he needs two starring roles in three weeks?

I expect X-Files will be more of a sleeper film, making $70 mil or so.

[cruzness]

Opening weekend : $142 mil
Domestic : $413 mil
Worldwide : $757 mil

[james2025a]

I am sure that the movie will make 100 million opening weekend, however people seem to be forgetting that its a long movie (almost 3 hours) and as such you are not going to be able to get as many showings per day as you would with many other movies. So this will hurt its weekend box office. I think that the movie will do very well and will make around $400 domestically.

[Rainet]

The irony is that Indy and Spidey 3 got luke-warm reviews however killed at the box office while The Dark Knight is being hailed as the next Godfather in most reviews. So if it doesnt even hit $300 million i would find it very sadly amusing. I see it clicking at $350 domestic. I would love to see this hit $400 even though that's highly unlikely. But strangers things have happened.

I am not even focusing on the opening weekend estimates because it's going to do well no matter what. What i will be focusing on is the 2nd weekend and beyound. It's all a matter of legs. The Imax is already sold out around here. So i won't be able to see this at the imax till the following weekend anyway. There may be many others in my case scenerio. Should be an interesting month.

[Rainet]

deleted (sorry bad clicker)

[Rainet]

deleted

[Brack]

yep, yep, yep.

[Doc MacGyver]

- People here and in other places are falling into the trap of thinking that whatever they obsess over, the general public will. This has been proven time and time again to be a false and quite stupid assumption.


Last night, a couple of my roommates and I went out for drinks with some female friends of ours, and unprompted one of them said to one of the others, "I cannot wait for Batman."

This is a <i>gorgeous</i> girl who is not dating any of us and has no one to impress. immediately her friends piped in with, "Oh me too" and "totally."

Well after the blood returned to my head, my first thought was, "This flick is going to be huge."



-Doc

[Brack]

Last night, a couple of my roommates and I went out for drinks with some female friends of ours, and unprompted one of them said to one of the others, "I cannot wait for Batman."

This is a <i>gorgeous</i> girl who is not dating any of us and has no one to impress. immediately her friends piped in with, "Oh me too" and "totally."

Well after the blood returned to my head, my first thought was, "This flick is going to be huge."



-Doc

marry this girl. ;)

[GuessWho]

The 12am showings are selling out, 3am showings are selling out, and now they're being forced to offer 6am showings.Kinda ridiculous.

it's not like you'll be seeing a different movie if you wait a week. or month.

[Doc MacGyver]

marry this girl. ;)



Ha. well after her comment last night, I'm sure as hell workin' on it. If I end up banging this chick because of Batman, I'm going to start praying to my "Why So Serious?" poster.

-other-



-Doc

[hapgilmore]

For anyone predicting less than 100 mil opening weekend, you are out of your mind. After thinking about it, I am changing my prediction from 130 mil to 160. This is going to beat SM3. The hype is ridiculous, has any movie ever had this much? The argument that "Begins only made about 200 mil, so this can't make that much more" is stupid. After the awful Batman and Robin, audiences did not care to see any more Batman flicks. Once the good word of mouth came, Begins became more and more popular, especially on video. The Dark Knight is going to be HUGE, period. The argument about it being "too dark for general audiences" is stupid too. Parents don't care about a movie being dark, if its PG-13, they will let their kids see it (and if they don't, they are lame as hell). No matter how dark it may be, people want to, and are going to, see this movie. The long run time will not affect it, another dumb argument. Just look at Spider 3, Pirates 2 and 3, and Titanic for proof of that. I actually think this could go way higher than 160, but I'll stick with that for now (I may change my mind again before release day).

[RichC2]

I hope it kicks ass and takes names, the exacts are too iffy due to too much information from different prespectives (sold out showings? Sure, but none are around here, not even the midnight IMAX showings. The Friday night IMAX showings are the only showings currently sold out.)

The movie should be big, and I hope to hell it beats Spider-man 3, though that would be asking a LOT ($151m is INSANE), at the very least I hope it beats Pirates of the Caribbean 3 ($114m and that was a poor sequel to a terrible movie.)

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see it well under $100m.

[acubfaninmd]

opening weekend $165-$175 Million
Total Domestic $500-$550 Million
Worldwide $750 Million

[fumanstan]

Kinda ridiculous.

it's not like you'll be seeing a different movie if you wait a week. or month.

I don't think it's that ridiculous. People want to see it as soon as possible.

[KillerCannibal]

The fact that a thread about the film's box office predictions has reached 3 pages and growing should be some kind of indicator to people just how well this thing is going to do.

Again, I think Pirates of the Caribbean is the template to use here. The first one opened with about $45m (about the same as Batman Begins), but good word of mouth boosted it's box office take significantly. Now, it did finish with $100m more than Batman Begins, but the pent-up demand for more PotC films gave DMC a $135m opening, and that movie was almost 2 1/2 hours. Seeing as how TDK has that much demand built up, and ticket prices are maybe a buck more expensive, I could easily see it beating that total. Plus, they didn't have to schedule 3am and 6am screenings for DMC because it was selling out like crazy... That says it all.

[Shannon Nutt]

For anyone predicting less than 100 mil opening weekend, you are out of your mind.

Are you telling us to "mark your words"? Because we've been down that road before here on DVD Talk. :)

Personal opinion: yeah, it could do 100 million over the 3-day, but I think it's going to be closer than a lot/most think.

And there's NO WAY it does $400 million total domestic. You can mark MY words on that. ;)

[hapgilmore]

^ Yes, mark my words.

[outlander78]

I wonder what will happen once word of mouth gets around. Based on DVD Talk's review, this is a bleak movie more like Godfather or Heat than typical comic book based action movies. I liked Godfather and Heat very much, and the film sounds promising, but I wonder what the general reaction to a Batman movie which subverts action will be? How did Superman Returns to in theaters?

[Mr. Cinema]

I predict that if The Dark Knight doesn't earn $800 million in the US, doesn't receive 20 Oscar Nominations, and Heath Ledger doesn't win an Oscar and that his performance as the Joker isn't ranked #1 in the history of film, that DVD Talk will just shut down.

[Doc MacGyver]

I wonder what will happen once word of mouth gets around. Based on DVD Talk's review, this is a bleak movie more like Godfather or Heat than typical comic book based action movies. I liked Godfather and Heat very much, and the film sounds promising, but I wonder what the general reaction to a Batman movie which subverts action will be? How did Superman Returns to in theaters?


Did Superman Returns get the reviews this sucker is? This movie isn't actionless... look at teh trailer to see that... but apparently this IS a different animal... Look at Pirates. The action set pieces got so ridiculous that I lost interest. I'd much rather have just watched Depp be Jack Sparrow for a while. Evidently, that's the case with Ledger's Joker.

Also, the tension is supposedly unbelievable. You're never at ease the entire movie. People actually enjoy that fear and unrest. Look at There Will Be Blood. barely anything happens the entire flick, but no one cares because you're mezmorized by DDL and you're gripping your armrests the whole time.

I'm not saying it's going to bring the sales records tumbling down into obscurity, just saying that the picture will do just fine.



-Doc


EDIT:

I predict that if The Dark Knight doesn't earn $800 million in the US, doesn't receive 20 Oscar Nominations, and Heath Ledger doesn't win an Oscar and that his performance as the Joker isn't ranked #1 in the history of film, that DVD Talk will just shut down.


:lol: :rock2:

[Mr. Cinema]

If Nolan doesn't come back for the third film, I feel sorry for whomever has to follow up this one. I'd say the bar is set a tad high, based on the hype/reviews.

[fumanstan]

Yeah, Superman Returns is kind of a different beast since audience reaction has been mixed. Same with Indiana Jones. We'll see how people react to this one.

[d2cheer]

I like the first one but actually have no ambition to see this one. I waited for the first on DVD and will with this. Not really sure why... maybe it is because my son has no interest in this at all or the fact the Batman character really does nothing for me.

After I dragged him to the Indiana Jones movie I doubt he will go with me to anything else he is not interested in...

That said, my guess based on the hype I doubt it will make more than the Indy opening which is about 100 million, after that it will all depend on competition and word of mouth. I don't think $250-285+ is out of the question.

If you recall Each Spider-Man opened bigger but made less...

[The Infidel]

I think this film has the potential to be to the 2000's what Titanic was to the 1990's. Only thing is, I don't recall as much pre-hype surrounding Titanic, except for the talk about its budget. Still, I think people are going to go back and see this again and again in the theaters, worldwide. Then when it comes out on DVD, it's going to be an absolute monster.

Or not...to all that. I often don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Just wanted to throw in my $.02. :)

[Cardiac161]

One of the reasons why I wish TDK would beat Spiderman 3's opening weekend numbers is that I really hated Spiderman 3. That film did not deserve it!!!

[GuessWho]

I don't think it's that ridiculous. People want to see it as soon as possible.Yeah, but 3am is silly.

I guarantee you I will have just as good of a time watching it in August as someone will at 3am in July.

[BJacks]

Why yes, what woman wouldn't swoon at the sight of Christian Bale in an outfit that covers and obscures his features from head to toe. And really, what female wouldn't have sweet, romantic dreams later that night after seeing a dead actor portraying a man caked in white makeup, with stringy green hair and a mouth with a horrible scar on either side of his face, whose favorite hobby is murdering people in between bouts of acting completely insane.Women don't need Heath Ledger and Christian Bale in a romantic comedy to make it worth checking out. Case in point is my girlfriend who could care less about superhero movies. But based on them being in the movie, she went and saw it and absolutely loved it. Anecdotal evidence highly suggests this has massive appeal across both sexes, including many females who wouldn't ordinarily see a comic book film. That's how a film becomes a huge blockbuster.

As for Michael Caine, I suppose there's three or four women living somewhere in England who simply must go see anything he's in, so Nolan obviously used his financial smarts when casting Alfred.I was kidding.

The majority of this people are seeing the movie for two things: because they are morbidly fascinated with Ledger's death, and because it's Batman, not because it's Christian Bale.Or...because people hear it's an amazing movie...?

Any tall, physically fit male actor with a modicum of acting talent could have been squeezed into the Batsuit, and you would have had the same box office results Warners got on Begins and will get on Dark Knight.Sorry but that's just absurd. We've seen what a bad Batman does to a film. Bale carries Nolan's universe with him on his shoulders and defines it. If you switched him up for TDK with some soap opera star, the film would have suffered tremendously.

[Ginwen]

Opening Weekend: 100 Million
Total: 245 Million

[RichC2]

Women don't need Heath Ledger and Christian Bale in a romantic comedy to make it worth checking out.

This is true, the two people I know most excited about this movie are female (when Heath passed away, they called me up and both said "Holy shit! Heath Ledger is dead! Wait, Dark Knight isn't going to be canceled/delayed is it?") and the one trying to organize a company wide "lets go see The Dark Knight!" is also a lady.

It has appeal across the board, believe it or not.

[majorjoe23]

I got my tickets for midnight today at an Imax showing. I'm going to Pitchfork in Chicago that weekend and decided I couldn't wait until Monday to see this.

[fumanstan]

Yeah, but 3am is silly.

I guarantee you I will have just as good of a time watching it in August as someone will at 3am in July.

I don't know, I'm sure the guy who wants to see the movie bad enough to stay up to watch it is probably a lot more excited then you are to see it. And i'm sure in that month that goes by before you see it, if it's as good as it sounds like it will be, he'll also have plenty of fun discussing it online and in person. :)

I'm not that guy, and I don't even do midnight showings, but I can see why people are as excited as they are and want to see it as soon as they can.

[Larry C.]

I'm just going to go all out wacky here:

Opening Weekend: $170 million

Total Domestic: $375-400 million

This movie is going to be huge, and I think it'll do more than many people expect. The 12am showings are selling out, 3am showings are selling out, and now they're being forced to offer 6am showings.

Yea lets get Wacky...

Opening Weekend: $185 million

Total Domestic: $385 Million

[kstublen]

:lol: :whofart:

Really?


I'll go with 270 domestic.

That estimate was meant to represent opening weekend, not total domestic gross.

[Double_Oh_7]

I am sure that the movie will make 100 million opening weekend, however people seem to be forgetting that its a long movie (almost 3 hours) and as such you are not going to be able to get as many showings per day as you would with many other movies.
This is ancient thinking. We are in the days of multiplexes where one location can show it on multiple screens. Length isn't going to hurt box office at all.

[fitprod]

I think this film has the potential to be to the 2000's what Titanic was to the 1990's...

Um... No.

Titanic was such an oddity of happenstance, we will likely never see that happen again.

fitprod

[Shannon Nutt]

SUPERMAN RETURNS got some stellar early reviews...it was only after the movie came out that it started to get some negative backlash from the fan base.

I think it was TIME who gave it the early review that said "it's not just super, it's superb" that got everyone excited. Then we saw it, and all our hearts sunk. :)

BTW, I expect DARK KNIGHT to do better than SUPERMAN RETURNS - but not THAT much better.

[Seantn]

For the person who mentioned TITANIC -- No, this will not be the next Titanic. Whatever movie turns out to be the challenger to Titanic and ends up making that much money will possibly be a film that people aren't expecting. Titanic was discussed as possibly being the biggest BOMB in history before it was released, and it wound up being the biggest box office grosser in history after it's release. People weren't expecting it to do so well. Even after the first few weeks in theaters there was still talk on some news shows of how it still would have trouble recouping it's budget.

With Dark Knight, it's obviously going to do well, but everyone will be seeing it in the first few weeks it is in theaters. With Titanic, some people saw it, then they told others about it, so those people saw it, and so on and so on and it was in theaters for nearly an entire year because of that.

[Mr. Cinema]

Titanic made money the old fashioned way, by very strong word-of-mouth. It was not front loaded at all. It's opening weekend was $28.6 million. It was #1 for 15 STRAIGHT WEEKS. It also made at least $10 million for 16 STRAIGHT WEEKS.

No other movie is going to do that kind of business again. Everything today, for the most part, is front loaded.

[Seantn]

Titanic made money the old fashioned way, by very strong word-of-mouth. It was not front loaded at all. It's opening weekend was $28.6 million. It was #1 for 15 STRAIGHT WEEKS. It also made at least $10 million for 16 STRAIGHT WEEKS.

No other movie is going to do that kind of business again. Everything today, for the most part, is front loaded.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding did it in 2002 (the strong word of mouth week after week for almost a year), but I can't recall if anything else has done it since.

[Maxflier]

Opening weekend: $98 million
Domestic total: $265 million

[Rainet]

Got my IMAX ticket for the friday night the 25th. Can't wait. The torture not to click on spoilers for a week. Ugh.

[skc087]

Now lets have the real box office predictions for The Dark Knight....

Opening Weekend: $131 Million
Total Domestic Gross: $305 Million
Foreign Gross: $355 Million
Total Worldwide: $655 Million

Alot of people are complaing that the movie is too long or too dark or it has too much competition...............its all BULLS**T!

Too Long?
The running time is 2 hrs and 30 mins which is only 10 minutes longer than Batman Begins.....so lets just say that it wont be a huge factor into the movies box office.

Too Dark?
The raiting is the only important thing.....its rated PG13! If it was rated R then I would have a completly different opinion about this. I understand that it wont be a family film like Spider-Man but it has a greater buzz.

Too Much Competition?
A few people mentioned that Mummy 3, X-Files 2, and Step Brothers all come out a few weeks after TDK but I dont think that they will matter at all.
Iron Man has made over $300M domestically and other movies like Indy 4, Chronicles of Narnia, and even Sex and the City have not effected its box office run so I dont think TDK will have any problems with the other movies.

I really dont understand the big deal about the 3AM shows and the 6AM shows. If the movie is soo huge then they should have changed the date to 17th or maybe even the 16th.

Last but not least IMAX!
Lets not forget that Batman Begins also went to IMAX and it made a grand total of $15.9M. Now since there is so much anticipation for TDK lets say it will make 2.5x $15.9 which is about $40M. $40M is only about 5% of the entire gross IF the movie does $700M worldwide.

On top of all that^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I have a bet going with some friends for a grand total of $700 that The Dark Knight will end up making LESS money than Indiana Jones 4 worldwide.
As of July 10, Indy 4 has made a grand total of $738M worldwide and I dont think that TDK will touch that. But then again I could be way wrong on this and lose the bet.

What do you guys think....was that a stupid bet on my part?

[Defiant1]

Anyone have an idea of how many screens it'll be opening on? All the mega-blockbusters seem to be opening in the 3900+ range so I'm guessing Warner is doing the same with TDK?

[Rypro 525]

Anyone have an idea of how many screens it'll be opening on? All the mega-blockbusters seem to be opening in the 3900+ range so I'm guessing Warner is doing the same with TDK?
Boxofficemojo.com says 4300+ screens opening weekend.

my estimate
opening weekend 155 million
total 370 million.

[Mercury&Solace]

Anybody saying under $100 million for its opening weekend is smoking crack.

I have never seen this much hype for a movie since Snakes On A Plane :)

I am going to say $120-$135 opening weekend.

[Brack]

I have a bet going with some friends for a grand total of $700 that The Dark Knight will end up making LESS money than Indiana Jones 4 worldwide.
As of July 10, Indy 4 has made a grand total of $738M worldwide and I dont think that TDK will touch that. But then again I could be way wrong on this and lose the bet.

What do you guys think....was that a stupid bet on my part?

no, I think you'll win the bet. that said, I'd never make such a bet.

[Suprmallet]

Alot of people are complaing that the movie is too long or too dark or it has too much competition...............its all BULLS**T!

I'm going to play devil's advocate to a few of your points.

Too Long?
The running time is 2 hrs and 30 mins which is only 10 minutes longer than Batman Begins.....so lets just say that it wont be a huge factor into the movies box office.

And Batman Begins only made $205 million domestically. I say "only" because in the context of the numbers we're talking about, people are saying The Dark Knight will do over half of Batman Begins' total box office in three days. And are then claiming a grand total of 100-200 million more than the box office of Begins. And it's 10 minutes longer on top of it.

Too Dark?
The raiting is the only important thing.....its rated PG13! If it was rated R then I would have a completly different opinion about this. I understand that it wont be a family film like Spider-Man but it has a greater buzz.

The film isn't just dark. It's bleak. And complex. The ending is a sucker punch right in the gut. I really don't know how this will play to the people who sent Iron Man soaring into the $300 million dollar club. A lot of people will see it once, but I don't know how many average joes will see it twice, as I suspect they did with Iron Man.

Too Much Competition?
A few people mentioned that Mummy 3, X-Files 2, and Step Brothers all come out a few weeks after TDK but I dont think that they will matter at all.
Iron Man has made over $300M domestically and other movies like Indy 4, Chronicles of Narnia, and even Sex and the City have not effected its box office run so I dont think TDK will have any problems with the other movies.

This I actually agree with. TDK will hold up just fine until Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express come out. Especially with IMAX to bolster it.

[Shannon Nutt]

I have never seen this much hype for a movie since Snakes On A Plane :)


Jinx! ;)

[skc087]

Opening Weekend: 167.3 mil

Total Domestic: 391 mil

IMAX: 92 mil


i will adjust numbers one more time prior to tdk release

How did you come up with $92Million for IMAX?

Batman Begins also went to IMAX and it made a total of $15.9M so lets just be optimistic and hope TDK makes 4x what Begins did and it would only be $64 and thats if it makes 4x which most likely is not going to happen.

[skc087]

Opening Weekend: $160 million

Total Domestic: $360-375 million

Worldwide: $550-575 million

Oh Yeah. Believe the hype! :johnwoo:

So let me get this straight.....

You are saying that TDK will make $160-175million more than Begins in the US alone but it will only make $40M more than Begins overseas?

Begins = $205M US
$166 Overseas

[filmfreak]

Total Domestic: $280 Million

[skc087]

Kinda ridiculous.

it's not like you'll be seeing a different movie if you wait a week. or month.

WHAT? Thats ridiculous!

They why see a movie at all in theaters?

Why not just wait for the dvd or wait for it to come out on cable.

Its not like you'll be seeing a different movie if you wait.

[Matthew Chmiel]

IMAX is only going to supply the film an extra $5 million in it's opening weekend. I can't see it doing more than $25-30 million total in IMAX, especially due to what is the ultimate lack of screens (94).

I think a good, solid opening weekend estimate for the film is $135m. I don't know if it's going to smash Spider-man 3's opening weekend numbers, but I am sure it'll do better than it with the domestic overall gross.

[Brack]

WHAT? That ridiculous!

They why see a movie at all in theaters?

Why not just wait for the dvd or wait for it to come out on cable.

Its not like you'll be seeing a different movie if you wait.

I'm thinking GuessWho is talking about the theater experience. it'll be the same regardless of when you see it.

[Quake1028]

I think a lot of people in this thread are going to be eating tons of crow in a week (hint, not the people predicting huge grosses), but how many will be man enough to show up then?

[Brack]

I think a lot of people in this thread are going to be eating tons of crow in a week (hint, not the people predicting huge grosses), but how many will be man enough to show up then?

yeah, it takes a real man to fess up to being wrong on a message board, :lol:

[skc087]

opening weekend $165-$175 Million
Total Domestic $500-$550 Million
Worldwide $750 Million

Wait what are you saying? $550 for the US plus $750 for overseas? So a total of $1.3Billion? Or are you saing $550 for the US and a total of $750?

I think either of those predictions are crazy. There is no way that this movie will break a billion. And there is no way that this gets to $550 in the US. The only movie to get to $500M is Titanic so there is to way this will get to $550.

[Brack]

what I'm wondering is why people are predicting such a high gross. it's like they "need" it to be the biggest thing ever.

[fumanstan]

what I'm wondering is why people are predicting such a high gross. it's like they "need" it to be the biggest thing ever.

Or they just think it will make a lot of money.

[Brack]

Or they just think it will make a lot of money.

it's one thing to think a movie will make a lot of money. it's another to think it'll be in the $400m+ club domestically. that's never a number that anyone ever considers predicting, so I find it kinda funny.

[skc087]

it's one thing to think a movie will make a lot of money. it's another to think it'll be in the $400m+ club domestically. that's never a number that anyone ever considers predicting, so I find it kinda funny.

I agree with you 100%. The lastest Star Wars didnt even break $400M and that movie definetly had more hype than this.

[Artman]

Opening wknd - 110-120 mill, 300ish final gross.

[Suprmallet]

I agree with you 100%. The lastest Star Wars didnt even break $400M and that movie definetly had more hype than this.

I don't know about that. A lot of people were already disappointed with episodes I and II when III came out. The Dark Knight is riding high on a wave of critical success and people fondly remembering Batman Begins.

[GreenVulture]

Sorry but that's just absurd. We've seen what a bad Batman does to a film. Bale carries Nolan's universe with him on his shoulders and defines it. If you switched him up for TDK with some soap opera star, the film would have suffered tremendously.
It's not absurd at all. Why is it so hard to believe that people are going for the character and not the actor? Batman is an institution; Christian Bale is not, and neither was Michael Keaton, Val Kilmer or George Clooney.

Like I said, you put any actor who fits the bill into the cowl and box office receipts won't suffer, because audiences are going for the character and their universe, not the person who's performing it (or in it). It's why films about Batman or James Bond (or hell, even the Star Wars prequels, which lacked the three main characters) always make money, regardless of their quality.

[Mr. Cinema]

I don't know about that. A lot of people were already disappointed with episodes I and II when III came out. The Dark Knight is riding high on a wave of critical success and people fondly remembering Batman Begins.
Yet they all knew it was the last Star Wars movie we'd get. It opened on a Thursday and still took in an insane $50 million + another $108 million over the 3-day weekend. $158 million in 4 days is pretty impressive for a movie that "alot of people were already disappointed with episodes I and II..."

The only other film that has a better 4-day opening is Spider-man 3, with a whopping $161 million.

Revenge of the Sith has the 5-day record of $172+ million.

[fumanstan]

It feels like box office openings have gotten bigger and bigger since Phantom Menace came out, with more theaters and more midnight showings.

I'd guess if it opened today it would be much higher.

[skc087]

Yet they all knew it was the last Star Wars movie we'd get. It opened on a Thursday and still took in an insane $50 million + another $108 million over the 3-day weekend. $158 million in 4 days is pretty impressive for a movie that "alot of people were already disappointed with episodes I and II..."

The only other film that has a better 4-day opening is Spider-man 3, with a whopping $161 million.

Revenge of the Sith has the 5-day record of $172+ million.

I was going to reply with almost the exact same thing but you beat me to the punch. : )

[Shannon Nutt]

yeah, it takes a real man to fess up to being wrong on a message board, :lol:

Hey, if I were a real man, I wouldn't be spending my time on a message board. ;)

[DVDsAreMyLIFE]

I am predicting $100-$110 million opening weekend. I don't think it will break any records. I think total domestic will be around $300-$350 million. It's conservative number but it makes the most sense to me. Hype wise, it is getting a lot but honestly for the general public I don't think so. Contrary to what some people say I have talked to numerous people I don't associate with on a weekly basis and none of them were all that interested or seemed intent on seeing DK opening weekend. I am excited for it and people on this form are excited about (people who are into movies) but that doesn't mean everyone is excited about it. But I guess only time will tell.

[Zen Peckinpah]

I have a feeling this will break the record, reincarnate it, and place a few dozen Blu-ray copies of Spider-Man 3 that came with the PS3 in a Phantom Zone FTW. $150 million plus, folks.

Reasoning: I'm in central NJ by the shore, not a major city whatsoever, and my local theater has seven midnight showings pegged, maybe more. I don't even think it was that intense for Spider-Man 3 or the second Pirates movie.

In other words, this movie could make up for the losses from the writers' strike. Well, maybe not that big, but still, it'll make WB forget Speed Racer bombed.

[Mhepburn20]

I have a feeling this will break the record, reincarnate it, and place a few dozen Blu-ray copies of Spider-Man 3 that came with the PS3 in a Phantom Zone FTW. $150 million plus, folks.

Reasoning: I'm in central NJ by the shore, not a major city whatsoever, and my local theater has seven midnight showings pegged, maybe more. I don't even think it was that intense for Spider-Man 3 or the second Pirates movie.

In other words, this movie could make up for the losses from the writers' strike. Well, maybe not that big, but still, it'll make WB forget Speed Racer bombed.

Well since Spidey 3 openened to a three day total of $151 million, $150 million plus is hardly breaking, reincarnating and phantom zoning anything. But yes, I too hope for some record breaking figures.

[Defiant1]

I am predicting $100-$110 million opening weekend. I don't think it will break any records. I think total domestic will be around $300-$350 million. It's conservative number but it makes the most sense to me. Hype wise, it is getting a lot but honestly for the general public I don't think so. Contrary to what some people say I have talked to numerous people I don't associate with on a weekly basis and none of them were all that interested or seemed intent on seeing DK opening weekend. I am excited for it and people on this form are excited about (people who are into movies) but that doesn't mean everyone is excited about it. But I guess only time will tell.

I'll go with this too but I'll be a little more generous with the opening weekend and say around $125M and a final domestic gross of around $330M. It'll be between this and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince for the #1 movie of the year, domestically speaking.

[mcfly]

I also have to chime in.. my theater has 4 midnight showings, two 3am, and two 6am. Never have I seen this for any film ever in the history of my movie-going experience. Most of these shows have been added too since the first two they had were sold out.

This will be huge, no doubt. I can't grasp what it's opening weekend will be though.

The fact that we have a thread predicting it must say something, though..

[geicos27]

So far my theater has sold out 12:01, 12:01, 12:30, 1:00, 1:30, 2:00, and 3:45. Good thing I got my tickets to the midnight show a couple of weeks ago.

[Brack]

The fact that we have a thread predicting it must say something, though..

it says people on this board are excited about the movie. that's about it.

[Depression]

I think this film has the potential to be to the 2000's what Titanic was to the 1990's. Only thing is, I don't recall as much pre-hype surrounding Titanic, except for the talk about its budget. Still, I think people are going to go back and see this again and again in the theaters, worldwide. Then when it comes out on DVD, it's going to be an absolute monster.

Or not...to all that. I often don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Just wanted to throw in my $.02. :)

Weird thing about Titanic was that it wasn't a sprint, it was a marathon. That movie had legs like no other.

Opened in December and it wasn't until April that it had its first weekend gross below 10 million.

[Brack]

Weird thing about Titanic was that it wasn't a sprint, it was a marathon. That movie had legs like no other.

Opened in December and it wasn't until April that it had its first weekend gross below 10 million.

just let the guy have his wet dream.

[NiCK Crush]

Every theater in my general area is showing The Dark Knight for 48 hours straight.

[Brack]

my prediction:

$6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0 00,000,000,000.

[Seantn]

But Brack, if the cast has back end points on the film, that still won't be enough for the film to turn a profit, right?

[DVDsAreMyLIFE]

Every theater in my area has there midnight showings for the most part sold out, but none of the Friday day or night showings are sold out at all.

[Groucho]

Anecdotal evidence:

For most movies, I generally reserve my seat a week or so in advance. So far this summer, it's worked fine and I've had no problem getting a great seat for films like Iron Man, Hulk, and Indiana Jones. But for this movie, it was different. Showings were sold out and/or the only seats left were crap. It took me a while to find a showing that had decent seats available (the first show on Sunday).

I also heard a news report about how theaters were having to add screenings due to unexpected demand. Take that as you will.

[DVDsAreMyLIFE]

I did not have a problem getting tickets at all this week, as in...today.

[Brack]

But Brack, if the cast has back end points on the film, that still won't be enough for the film to turn a profit, right?

no it won't. those idiots!

[Defiant1]

This has zero chance of even coming close to Titanic's grosses. Batman (and all action movies) have limited appeal to the female audience. That sinking ship got everyone to plop their butts in the theatre seats.

LOTR couldn't even come close and those will stand as the most eagerly anticipated movies of this decade. I think TDK will do great, but let's not kid ourselves.

[KillerCannibal]

It'll be between this and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince for the #1 movie of the year, domestically speaking.

Really? You think that after such diminishing returns a Harry Potter film will gross more than Indy 4, Ironman <i>and</i> TDK? Doubtful. I see HP doing around $275 max, but it won't break the $300m barrier. Only one Potter film has done that so far and it won't happen again, except maybe for the last film.

Also, don't forget... the IMAX release of this film is being sold out left and right, and with those higher ticket prices that will certainly add to the film's weekend bottom line. I see this as being the #1 IMAX film of all-time, which isn't a terribly difficult milestone to achieve, but still...

[scott1598]

does BoxOfficeMojo still do predictions? i haven't visited the site in sometime and was wondering if they made it for this yet...

[majorjoe23]

Boxofficemojo doesn't seem to do them anymore, but boxofficeguru does. They post them on Thursdays.

[Mr. Cinema]

Fantasy Moguls has posted their final opening weekend prediction. $136 million

[scott1598]

Fantasy Moguls has posted their final opening weekend prediction. $136 million
and yet they project a total BO of $225, which is just around BB. seems low to me.

[KillerCannibal]

and yet they project a total BO of $225, which is just around BB. seems low to me.

Total of $225m? No way this thing is going to make more than 50% of it's total gross opening weekend. Especially if good word of mouth carries it as I expect.

[outcastja]

IMAX around here in OC/LA are pretty much sold out for Friday and Saturday. Only showings left are 6am or 2am ones.

[Daytripper]

Fantasy Moguls has posted their final opening weekend prediction. $136 million

Boxofficereport.com has it at $118M

http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml

[RichC2]

Boxofficemojo's Derby (Reader guesses) Estimates:

Rank Title Avg. Pred.
1 THE DARK KNIGHT $135.7
2 MAMMA MIA! $23.5
3 HELLBOY II: THE GOLDEN ARMY $16.5
4 HANCOCK $15.7
5 JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH $11.0
6 WALL-E $10.6
7 SPACE CHIMPS $7.5
8 WANTED $6.1
9 GET SMART $4.3
10 MEET DAVE $2.2

---------------------------------------------------

Lee's Movie Info

1 The Dark Knight $146.4 NEW 4350
2 Mamma Mia! $25.7 NEW 3150
3 Hancock $15.2 -53% 3750
4 Hellboy 2 $13.9 -60% 3204
5 Journey to Center...3D $10.8 -49% 2811

------------------------------------------------------

Coming Soon Weekend Warrior:

1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) - $126.2 million N/A

2. Mamma Mia! (Universal) - $24.1 million N/A

3. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) - $15.5 million -55%

4. Hancock (Sony) - $15.4 million -52%

5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (New Line) - $10.9 million -48%

6. WALL•E (Pixar/Disney) - $10.1 million -46%

7. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) - $6.7 million N/A

8. Wanted (Universal) - $5.6 million -53%

9. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) - $4.0 million -45%

10. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks) - $2.3 million -47%


MovieTickets.com says that, four days prior to its release, Warner Bros' Batman: The Dark Knight has sold out 700 performances in North America and is outselling 3 of MovieTickets.com’s Top 10 Performing Films of All-Time. To date, the pic has more than 3-times as many advance tickets as Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, more than 2-times as many as Spider-Man 3 and almost 2-times as many as Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers at the same point in the sales cycle. This fuels predictions that the latest Batman 152-minute pic can make $130+ million in domestic gross for the upcoming 3-day weekend opening because of round-the-clock showings.

[GreenVulture]

I don't think anyone here is doubting this thing is gonna open like gangbusters. Where the doubt comes from is whether this thing will have any legs, or if it will lose half its audience the following week to other movies or because people have already seen it, which I think it will.

I am, however, doubting that Mamma Mia is going to open a such a low number. I've seen far more advertising on television for that than Dark Knight, it has wider appeal and I'm sure females and their boyfriends/husbands who wish they were watching TDK instead will come out in droves. I can wait for the DVD, though I would find it highly entertaining if it actually took the #1 spot this week, if only to see the internet implode for a day.

[TheMovieman]

I don't think anyone here is doubting this thing is gonna open like gangbusters. Where the doubt comes from is whether this thing will have any legs, or if it will lose half its audience the following week to other movies or because people have already seen it, which I think it will.

I am, however, doubting that Mamma Mia is going to open a such a low number. I've seen far more advertising on television for that than Dark Knight, it has wider appeal and I'm sure females and their boyfriends/husbands who wish they were watching TDK instead will come out in droves. I can wait for the DVD, though I would find it highly entertaining if it actually took the #1 spot this week, if only to see the internet implode for a day.

It's going to lose half of it's audience no matter what. A movie opens over $100m, it's going to drop at least 50%, and then add in the fanboy factor, and you're looking at closer to 60%. However, with the glowing reviews (both critics and fans), that could soften its second weekend.

Re: Advertising - I've seen countless trailers for TDK on TV and at the theater. Hell, I saw one 3 weekends in a row... I haven't seen a ton of movies this summer, but every one of them had the trailer (Iron Man, Wanted, The Incredible Hulk, Get Smart and maybe Indiana Jones 4, but I can't remember).

Also, I think this weekend there will be plenty of deal making with couples. Maybe the ladies will go and see Mamma Mia while the guys see TDK or they agree to see the other movie the same weekend (guys agree to see MM, and the gals agree to sit through TDK). And for the record, I'm predicting around $35m (but it wouldn't surprise me to see it open well over $45m) for Mamma Mia and $120m for TDK.

And that last part... ain't going to happen, even if TDK disappoints and opens under $100m, lol.

[KillerCannibal]

And that last part... ain't going to happen, even if TDK disappoints and opens under $100m, lol.

I love how we live in an age where a film could open to under $100m and be considered a disappointment. I know it's all about the hype, but that's still pretty funny.

Spider-Man 3 was 139 min, so TDK being 152 min. doesn't automatically exclude it's chances of breaking that opening record. I'd love to see it happen, if only because a film like Spidey 3 shouldn't have the best opening ever, it doesn't deserve it. I think that's what's got most people hoping for big numbers for TDK.

[GreenVulture]

Hmmmm....
"Okay, if we see The Dark Knight on Friday, then we'll go see that musical thingy on Saturday. Agreed?"

Or, alternatively:
"We're going to Mamma Mia on Friday. And then maybe we'll go see that Batman movie on Saturday. Maybe."

I can see the above deal being cut in several households, so maybe you're onto something. Still though, for every Knight commercial I've seen, I've seen about six Mamma commercials...I guess we've been watching different channels?

[outcastja]

I've seen more TDK TV spots as well. I just saw spots for Mamma Mia for the first time this week. I watched about 8 to 10 summer movies this year, and 90% of them had a TDK trailer and none had a Mamma Mia Trailer.

[GreenVulture]

I watched about 8 to 10 summer movies this year, and 90% of them had a TDK trailer and none had a Mamma Mia Trailer.
You guys should really stop mentioning trailers. Of course you're going to see TDK trailer in front of big summer and/or comic book movies that have a predominantly young male audience. Mamma is primarily targeted at women, so it would be a waste of time and effort for a theater to throw it in front of say, Iron Man or Hulk or Wanted.

[KillerCannibal]

Plus, with TDK opening this weekend, Mamma Mia needs to remind as many people as possible that it's opening this weekend. TDK could have stopped all marketing last week and still open like a behemoth.

[TheMovieman]

^ Yeah, might as well save some money.

Oh, and I saw plenty of TV ads on the Sci Fi Channel (they ran one during each hour of Ghost Hunters a couple of weeks ago); and then there was that SportsCenter exclusively sponsored by TDK which featured like 4 TV spots (plus a couple more in general on ESPN). I also saw a few more on various channels. This week there has been more Mamma Mia, but overall TDK has dominated (which makes sense since it would seem the marketing budget was as much as Mamma Mia's production budget).

[Defiant1]

Box Office Mojo reports that TDK will open in a record 4,366 theatres. Wow.

[skc087]

I think that Space Chimps and Mamma Mia will both open over $100M and The Dark Knight will open around $7M.


Psych

[DonTHX1378]

I think boxofficemojo is right on the dot. Fresno's 3am Imax screening still isn't sold out, and they added a 6am screening. The only other Imax screening that is already sold out is the 9pm screening Friday night.

[Suprmallet]

Hmmmm....
"Okay, if we see The Dark Knight on Friday, then we'll go see that musical thingy on Saturday. Agreed?"

That won't be heard in too many homes, I think. Most families/couples only go to the movies once a week, and especially once a weekend.

Or, alternatively:
"We're going to Mamma Mia on Friday. And then maybe we'll go see that Batman movie on Saturday. Maybe."

Let me get the guy in that scenario some ointment, because he has been whipped to hell.

[Brent L]

In Nashville, the 12am and 3am IMAX showings are sold out, the 3, 7, and 10 pm showings for Friday are sold out, and the 3 and 7 pm showings for Saturday are sold out.

[ScissorPuppy]

All showings of Imax from 12AM tonight until 10PM Sunday night are SOLD OUT!
There is a showing every three hours. 12A, 3A,6A,9A ETC...

Amazing, I don't remember a film being this sold out ahead of time since Episode One.

[RichC2]

I was trying to get tickets to the 10:00 AM Saturday IMAX showing in St. Augustine... But no dice, there were 2 tix left, I needed 3. Those last 2 sold 20 minutes later.

With that said, every showing from the Thurs/Fri Midnight showing through Sunday evening is now sold out.

That means the movie has grossed at least $57,600 from this IMAX theater alone already (16 shows, 300 seats per showing, $12 per ticket (not counting online service fee)).

[skc087]

All showings of Imax from 12AM tonight until 10PM Sunday night are SOLD OUT!
There is a showing every three hours. 12A, 3A,6A,9A ETC...

Amazing, I don't remember a film being this sold out ahead of time since Episode One.

300 was just like this.

All showings in IMAX were sold out for the opening weekend. Idk if they had a showing every 3 hours or not but it was pretty packed in there opening weekend.

I think people are making way too much buzz about this movie and it will only disappoint. Even if it makes like $125M people will be like it didnt even beat Spidey's record even thought $125 is huge.

[skc087]

I was trying to get tickets to the 10:00 AM Saturday IMAX showing in St. Augustine... But no dice, there were 2 tix left, I needed 3. Those last 2 sold 20 minutes later.

With that said, every showing from the Thurs/Fri Midnight showing through Sunday evening is now sold out.

That means the movie has grossed at least $57,600 from this IMAX theater alone already (16 shows, 300 seats per showing, $12 per ticket (not counting online service fee)).

16 shows in 3 days? Thats it? $57,600? Thats it?

There are less than 100 IMAX theaters in the USA so if its only $57k x 100 theaters is still only about $5.7M. If the movie opens at $100M than thats only 5% of its entire weekend gross. If if opens at more than $100M (which it probably will) then the IMAX gross will be less than 5%.

[TheMovieman]

I think people are making way too much buzz about this movie and it will only disappoint. Even if it makes like $125M people will be like it didnt even beat Spidey's record even thought $125 is huge.

I don't think it has a chance of breaking SM3's opening weekend. The major record people are talking about is opening day, which does have a shot at.

[majorjoe23]

Boxofficeguru.com is predicting $132 million.

[Brent L]

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/dark-knight-sold-out-sold-out-sold-out/

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Studio sources tell me that record-breaking advance ticket sales for Warner Bros' Batman: The Dark Knight "continue to grow at a pace unlike any other film in history". Even the number of locations in North America where the comic book caper will be playing -- 4,366 -- is an Industry record. There are also approximately 3,000 theaters that will start screening the actioner at 12:01AM Friday. Meanwhile, every IMAX show in New York City this weekend is sold out. By all accounts this should be Hollywood's best-ever 3-day overall North American weekend at the box office: the number to beat is last year's $151+ million. So Dark Knight's expected $130+ million opening, combined with Universal's anticipated $25+ million Momma Mia! debut, should expand the marketplace by a huge number to include those two films and all the very popular holdovers like Sony's Hancock, Universal's Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Disney/Pixar's Wall-E, Warner Bros' Journey To The Center Of The Earth, and Universal's Wanted. As a Warner Bros exec emailed me, "Should be a fun ride this weekend..."

MovieTickets.com says that, four days prior to its release, Warner Bros' Batman: The Dark Knight has sold out 700 performances in North America and is outselling 3 of MovieTickets.com’s Top 10 Performing Films of All-Time. To date, the pic has more than 3-times as many advance tickets as Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, more than 2-times as many as Spider-Man 3 and almost 2-times as many as Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers at the same point in the sales cycle. This fuels predictions that the latest Batman 152-minute pic can make $130+ million in domestic gross for the upcoming 3-day weekend opening because of round-the-clock showings.

In a recent MovieTickets.com survey, moviegoers aware of The Dark Knight expressed "wannasee" during its opening weekend in all four age groups polled: 24 & Under – 98%, 25 to 34 – 92%, 35 to 44 – 78%, 45 to 59 – 66%. In addition, the survey found that 86% of males and 76% of females polled said they intend to see it during its opening weekend.

Meanwhile Fandango (which sells tickets to more than 15,000 theater screens) reports that Warner Bros' The Dark Knight has grabbed a whopping 90% of all ticket sales for the upcoming weekend show. That's incredible considering it was still only Tuesday. COO Rick Butler claims fan anticipation is the highest since Star Wars Episode III: Revenge Of The Sith. "Moviegoer curiosity about the late Heath Ledger’s performance as The Joker is helping fuel additional ticket sales, outside of the traditional action movie and Batman fan base."

Also according to Fandango, every showing at the AMC Loews Lincoln Square 13 IMAX theater this weekend is sold out, including the Friday morning 4AM show. There is still an IMAX screening not yet sold out in New Rochelle, NY, at 6:10AM. IMAX tickets cost more than standard admission ($16 to $12 for adults in NYC).

And Comcast just released 6 exclusive videos of The Dark Knight it claims can;t be found anywhere else, as well as a new videogame based on the pic. Plus, let's not forget the onslaught of tie-in products...

It's understandable even if ridiculous that Warner Bros keeps trying to lower everyone's expectations for this behemoth blockbuster of a Batman Begins sequel. My sources at the studio keep insisting that Dark Knight will "only" make $90 million to $100 million for its opening 3-day weekend. I can't believe they're seriously suggesting that Dark Knight will make less than Iron Man.

But the WB insiders point to all the increased competition at the megaplex now as opposed to the beginning of May. Whereas my box office gurus are predicting domestic gross as high as $130M for the wildly anticipated Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale film because of all those record-breaking early ticket sales at North American runs, including IMAX. That would put it 3rd in terms of all-time opening 3-day weekends -- behind Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M on May 4-6, 2007)and Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest ($131.6M on July 7, 2006). One worry mitigating the Heath Ledger fanboy factor which Hollywood has mentioned is that the pic's 2 hour and 32 minute running time will limit showings. But that isn't an issue anymore since many theater managers/owners plan round-the-clock screenings during its midnight July 18 mega-debut.

'Dark Knight' Prediction: $130M Weekend

[fumanstan]

I think the hype around this just keeps growing as news comes out about tickets being sold out. It's adding fuel to people buying tickets early, even for people that aren't the crazy internet fans.

[RichC2]

16 shows in 3 days? Thats it? $57,600? Thats it?

There are less than 100 IMAX theaters in the USA so if its only $57k x 100 theaters is still only about $5.7M. If the movie opens at $100M than thats only 5% of its entire weekend gross. If if opens at more than $100M (which it probably will) then the IMAX gross will be less than 5%.

It's a small theater and part of a non-movie theater (no extremely early or late showings starting past 9). And it's showing in 94 IMAX theaters.

1 thing though, if the movie opens to less than $100m, which is very possibly might though it seems unlikely, IMAX gross will be MORE than 5%, since it's still going to have $5.7m (potentially more depending on # of showings and cost at other IMAX theaters). If it makes more than $100m, then the IMAX gross will be less than 5%.

Friday should be enormous with many theaters showing it on numerous screens simultaneously at 12:01 AM. Thurs/Friday Midnight tickets are $4 cheaper than they are on Friday night here (since the Midnight showing is still a Weekday). Locally, only 3 midnight showings are currently sold out (2 regular, 1 IMAX), back in my old town (fewer theaters), all 9 midnight showings are sold out.

Next Friday's drop (Friday-to-Friday) will be absolutely monsterous (this Friday benefits from all the Midnight showings, and 3 AM showings, and 6 AM showings, which will not be available next Friday).

I think the hype around this just keeps growing as news comes out about tickets being sold out. It's adding fuel to people buying tickets early, even for people that aren't the crazy internet fans.

It's the Wii in Movie Ticket form, hopefully it will actually be justified.

[Brent L]

It's the Wii in Movie Ticket form, hopefully it will actually be justified.

It's going to sell out every week for almost two years straight? Awesome!

[RichC2]

It's going to sell out every week for almost two years straight? Awesome!

:lol: I was going for selling out because of the threat of selling out, but that works too :D

[mcfly]

I think boxofficemojo is right on the dot. Fresno's 3am Imax screening still isn't sold out, and they added a 6am screening. The only other Imax screening that is already sold out is the 9pm screening Friday night.I live in Sac, and all of the NorCal IMAX screenings are sold out this weekend except for a 1:15am showing somewhere I've never heard of.

I got my tickets for the 6pm showing at the IMAX in Fresno on Saturday. I'm making the trek.

All of LA and NYC are sold out this weekend. Some of the smaller regions (i.e. Fresno) seem to be plentiful in the ticket department.

[mcfly]

It this for real?

http://cgi.ebay.com/Dark-Knight-IMAX-West-Nyack-NY-NJ-2-Tickets-3AM-7-18_W0QQitemZ250270774122QQihZ015QQcategoryZ16122QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

[RichC2]

Apparently so, that's pretty sad, and I'd be amazed if it sold.

That said, a buddy and myself did sell our midnight Revenge of the Sith seats for $250 to a buddy of ours who was desperate to impress a chick (at RotS? Really?). Made the right choice there (that movie was just bad. NOoooooooooooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOO.) So $350 for IMAX doesn't sound entirely impossible... just silly.

[mcfly]

I think that's sad since it's not even a midnight showing.. it's a 3am!

Wow. If anyone does buy that, I'd love to see what else they spend their money on.

[scott1598]

It this for real?

http://cgi.ebay.com/Dark-Knight-IMAX-West-Nyack-NY-NJ-2-Tickets-3AM-7-18_W0QQitemZ250270774122QQihZ015QQcategoryZ16122QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
that is so funny. i used to live there and went to that Palisades Mall all the time. never to that IMAX though. but the regular theater there is very nice with all stadiums, about 21 or so.

[hapgilmore]

I think that's sad since it's not even a midnight showing.. it's a 3am!

Wow. If anyone does buy that, I'd love to see what else they spend their money on.
oh so if it was a midnight show, the price would be justified?

[mcfly]

oh so if it was a midnight show, the price would be justified?Really? I said that? I must be missing something.

All I meant was that whoever's selling the tickets for that price seem to think these tickets are really worth something, I just find the humor that it's a 3am showing.

[DonTHX1378]

The 3am Imax screening in Fresno sold out at last. Called the theater and the 6am and 9am screening are selling out fast also. They said that by about 5 today those screenings, plus most of Fridays shows should start to sell out and into Saturday. The way it's looking now I wouldn't be suprised if now if the film overtakes Spideys record now.

[amplified]

I live in Sac, and all of the NorCal IMAX screenings are sold out this weekend except for a 1:15am showing somewhere I've never heard of.

I got my tickets for the 6pm showing at the IMAX in Fresno on Saturday. I'm making the trek.

All of LA and NYC are sold out this weekend. Some of the smaller regions (i.e. Fresno) seem to be plentiful in the ticket department.

What part of Sacramento are you in?

I'm up in Lincoln just NE of Sac so the closest IMAX for me is Midtown I think..

[mcfly]

What part of Sacramento are you in?

I'm up in Lincoln just NE of Sac so the closest IMAX for me is Midtown I think..Yeah, that's the closest one.

The K Street Esquire doesn't show "new" movies until after they leave the San Francisco one. It's been like that as long as I've lived here. Kung Fu Panda is starting Friday at ours because TDK is starting up in San Fran.

The Frisco ones are all sold out, and there's another one (I forgot the name of the city) that would be the same distance that only has a 1:15am showing on Saturday.

Fresno is the next closest, so that's where I'm heading. Three-hour drive or not, I'm not waiting until September at the earliest for ours to get a hold of the print.

[Defiant1]

My local IMAX is completely sold out for the whole weekend. There are two other IMAX theatres within a 30 minute drive. One is also completely sold out and the third only has 8:30am and 1:30am showings left.

[RichC2]

I don't know if this will break any weekend records, but I do think it has a very good chance at highest single day. There are 30 showings of it at Midnight here, 29 are sold out as of 11:30.

[DonTHX1378]

Wouldn't be suprised also that it breaks the one day records. All the Fresno midnight shows sold out at about 5pm, and it's showing on about 22 screens here in town tonight. And the morning shows from what the news said are starting to sell out. So what is the record for the one day earings, does Spider-Man 3 hold it or does Pirates 2 still own it.

[invisiblegt]

Spider-Man 3: $59 million (somewhere in the realm of)

All-time opening weekend is something like $151 million, also held by the aforementioned Spider-Man 3.

[Mr.Scary]

Spider-Man 3 is the record holder with $59,841,919.

[Deftones]

yeah, i'm beginning to think more and more this may beat the target estimate of $130 million this weekend. most showings are sold out around the phoenix area for friday, as well.

[outcastja]

http://deadlinehollywooddaily.com/


FIRST NUMBERS! 'Dark Knight' Midnight Shows Broke 'Star Wars: Sith' Figures

FRIDAY 7AM: Warner Bros is well on its way to making Hollywood history this weekend. That's because its opening comic book caper The Dark Knight is already on its way to breaking records left and right today even as it's still sparking a ticket-selling frenzy across North America. I've just been told that the latest Batman installment's midnight shows broke the record of $16 million set by Star Wars Episode III: Revenge Of The Sith. "Over $17 million, and still counting," my insider says this morning. I should have final midnight numbers soon. Across North America, theater owners are working feverishly to squeeze in more screenings to meet voracious moviegoer demand.

[kefrank]

did Spider-man 3 have this much mania surrounding it? i have to think the Dark Knight will set the record.

[scott1598]

don't you feel that extra special something when you see the #'s come in on Monday and know that you were part of that history!

[Seantn]

Now it says $18.4 million at midnight shows

[Doughboy]

Now it says $18.4 million at midnight shows

That's insane. There was one theater in H-Town last night that had EIGHT midnight showings. EIGHT!!! And as of yesterday evening, at least 5 of those sold out, so the demand is definitely there.

You've even got people in NYC paying 100 bucks for a ticket because it's sold out everywhere.

I'm tempted to quote Roxanne. "They said it would be big, but I didn't expect it to be......BIG!!!" :)

[DthRdrX]

The local Cinemark here had eight midnight showings and one 3 am showing. They have never used more than 4-5 screens for a single movie.

[stingermck]

My local had 10 screens for midnight, all sold out by 6pm yesterday

[hapgilmore]

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/dark-knight-sold-out-sold-out-sold-out/

EXCLUSIVE: Though they won't dare discuss this in public, I'm told that Warner Bros bigwigs are hoping for between $160 million and $170 million for Batman: The Dark Knight's 3-day weekend total gross from a record 4,366 North American theaters despite a 152 minute running time. Now that may be impossible, and a huge increase from the $130 million that the studio bosses were expecting earlier in the week, but anything over $100 million is going to be considered a humongous success. Because the ticket sales frenzy, from coast to coast, city to city, town to town, with almost 24/7 performances even in the hinterlands, new sceenings being squeezed in by the minute, online services selling an average of nearly 10 tickets per second for the pic during peak periods, and all those IMAX sell-outs, has everyone revved up.

[Doughboy]

I'm told that Warner Bros bigwigs are hoping for between $160 million and $170 million for Batman: The Dark Knight's 3-day weekend total gross


Imagine that. In one weekend, it'll make almost as much as the first film grossed in its entire domestic run.

[hapgilmore]

^ Austin Powers 2 did that

[Seantn]

Wow -- the $18.4 million did NOT include any of the 3am or 6am shows, ONLY the midnight shows, so it actually made quite a bit more last night (well, technically it was all this morning!) than is being reported.

[Doughboy]

^ Austin Powers 2 did that

Yeah, I'm sure there are several movies that did(T2 is another possibility), but 205 mil is a pretty impressive total and The Dark Knight could make over 80% of that in 3 days. That's insane!

[Kicker_of_Elves]

My prediction for the weekend: $163 Million.

[Wazootyman]

I'm gonna predict it'll make at least 18 mil

[Seantn]

I'm gonna predict it'll make at least 18 mil

Perhaps even $18.4 million...anything is possible!

[Double_Oh_7]

I predict Space Chimps will be #1 at the box office.

[Nesbit]

I predict Space Chimps will be #1 at the box office.

MARK MY WORDS!

[Mr. Cinema]

Wow -- the $18.4 million did NOT include any of the 3am or 6am shows, ONLY the midnight shows, so it actually made quite a bit more last night (well, technically it was all this morning!) than is being reported.
???

$18.4 million is what it has made so far.

[Seantn]

Right, from the midnight shows. That's what the $18.4 came from. That number doesn't include all the 3am and 6am early morning shows that also happened. Exactly what you quoted me saying above.

[Rainet]

Any new numbers come in yet other than the midnight show? Or will we have to wait till tomorrow for the whole number for friday?

[Autotelik]

Hmmmmm I might have to revise my estimates upward.... at this frantic pace, it might just be the only movie this year to crack $400mil

[outcastja]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2008/07/dark-knight-lik.html

COMPETING STUDIO REPORTS: 'Dark Knight' may top opening day record with $63M and 3-day record with $153M! by Steve Mason


FRIDAY 4:00 p.m. (Pacific): Just got off the phone with a competing studio exec, and I am told that their "numbers crunchers" are, at the moment, projecting that The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) will break the all-time opening day and all-time 3-day weekend records, surpassing last May's Spider-Man 3. According to the studio exec, the Christopher Nolan-directed Batman Begins sequel is on pace for a $63M opening day! That does include the $18.4M reported by Warner Bros this morning for overnight business. If the number holds (or even if it is close), it will a staggeringly huge start for the impeccably reviewed superhero picture, and it will be enough to blow by Spider-Man 3's $59.84M opening day. My source also reports that The Dark Knight is on pace for $153M for the 3-day, which would top Spidey 3's opening frame of $151.11M. Keep in mind that when the numbers get this big, the percentages get very small. At $153M, Knight would set the record by a margin of less than 1% over SM3. The numbers laid out for me went like this: $63M Friday, $53M Saturday and $37M on Sunday. Complete numbers, including early results for Mamma Mia! (Universal) and Space Chimps (Fox), as they become available.


This would be sweet because my original predictions are similar

Friday: $64 mil
Saturday: $52 mil
Sunday: $41 mil
Opening Weekendl: $157 mil

Total Domestic: $346 mil

[LivingINClip]

Sweet. I always said it would top Spider-Man 3.

I can't speak for everyone, but I live in a small town and the opening of it made the news last night.

http://www.amnews.com/public_html/?module=displaystory&story_id=42413&format=html

There was 531 people at my showing. It was showing on three screens if I recall correctly. Now, to put this in perspective, Spider-Man 3 and Pirates 3 had a quite a few people there, but not near that many.

Also, while my local theater did not have a 3:00 am and 6:00 am showing, they are having 10:00 am showings this weekend, due to demand. The earliest showing on a normal day is noon.

[stingermck]

Showings start at 9am tomorrow. 22 showings at one theater, 23 in another.

[Seantn]

Actually, now it's projected to be a $66 million Friday, up from the earlier $63 prediction.

[Peep]

"Dark Knight" is going to crush "Spider-man 3". It's a much better movie coming off of a much fresher franchise with much better word of mouth.

And as far as I'm concerned, except for "Iron Man" and "Wanted", this summer's pop corn movies have been very disappointing. People want their sock knocked off. Not only is Batman going to rule this weekend, next weekend will also be huge! I'd wouldn't bat an eye at close to 70 million for week 2.

[DarkestPhoenix]

No way this doesn't crush all opposition and make 400 million...I heard on the radio that it made 18.5 (!) million for its midnight showing alone.

Insane.

[Brack]

well, after seeing the movie, and the anticipation level of it, it has a good chance at $400m perhaps. At least $300m I think. but hey, I might still be high off how awesome the movie is. I'll likely see this two, maybe three more times.

[Mr. Cinema]

Right, from the midnight shows. That's what the $18.4 came from. That number doesn't include all the 3am and 6am early morning shows that also happened. Exactly what you quoted me saying above.
So why haven't we gotten those 3 am and 6 am numbers yet?

This is from Fantasy Moguls: "Starting with Thursday night’s 12:01a screenings coast-to-coast, which generated an estimated $18.4M by dawn"

Perhaps the articles were incorrect?

[Mr. Cinema]

With The Dark Knight likely becoming the new opening weekend champ, I wonder if it can pass ticket sales of the original Batman. Adjusted for today's dollars, it earned $433 million.

[RichC2]

Rumblings place Friday at above $66m. We'll see.

[PJsig08]

It's going to definitely make $400 million in the U.S. at this rate. People will go back for multiple viewings also.

I'm seeing it in a couple hours and haven't been this excited to see a movie since LOTR: ROTK

[stingermck]

According to Variety , The Dark Knight saw a one-day box office of somewhere between $60 and $63 million, a total which includes $18.5 million from midnight shows alone. The total gives Warner Bros. Batman movie the best box office single-day opening ever, besting Spider-Man 3, which saw $59.8 million on its opening Friday last year.

*from Newsarama

[outcastja]

Boxofficemojo has it at $66,400,000 for Friday.

[stingermck]

Well that kills the previous record of Spider-Man 3, $59.8 million

[LorenzoL]

Boxofficemojo has it at $66,400,000 for Friday.
:up:

[chris_sc77]

Well, Im gonna say:
3-Day Opening Weekend: $156 million
Overall Domestic: $437 million
international Box Office: $363 million

TOTAL= $800 million


Looks like I might be spot on for the weekend numbers.
However I dont know it this film will be able to hit the $437 million I predicted for an overall domestic gross. It will be interesting to see just how front loaded this movie is and what the drop-off will be.
Hopefully it will have Iron Man legs.

[Deftones]

Wow. Simply amazing.

[outcastja]

This is the first movie since Sith, where I really want to just watch this movie over and over at the theater. Luckily there's a new IMAX that just opened up here in SoCal that not many people know about, so I was able to get some tickets for tomorrow.

[Quake1028]

Opening weekend: $85 Million
Full domestic run: $175

fitprod

Hate to be mean, but have to quote this, as it's one of the worst "predictions" I have ever seen.

Opening Weekend: $83 million
Total Domestic: $230 million

I don't doubt this is going to be a GREAT movie...what I doubt is that a large portion of the mainstream will go to see it again, since it's more of an epic drama than "summer popcorn flick'. A lot of people are going to be turned off by it.

Keep in mind, folks that if THE DARK KNIGHT rakes in close to $100 million on opening weekend, that will be TWICE what BATMAN BEGINS did on its opening weekend.

Another one.

I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.

Last one.

[Deftones]

it was so bad, you had to quote it twice!

[Quake1028]

Gah, stupid computer!

[bee_01]

Anybody quoting over $250 million domestic is out of their mind. It'll open big for sure, but there is a bit of competition coming Bruce Wayne's way in the next few weeks or so.

D'oh! ;)

Glad to see the movie is doing well :up:

[NiCK Crush]

this movie will definitely have legs. everyone i know that has seen it cannot wait to see it again and again.

[Rainet]

I see it clicking at $350 domestic. I would love to see this hit $400 even though that's highly unlikely. But strangers things have happened.

I am not even focusing on the opening weekend estimates because it's going to do well no matter what. What i will be focusing on is the 2nd weekend and beyound. It's all a matter of legs. The Imax is already sold out around here. So i won't be able to see this at the imax till the following weekend anyway. There may be many others in my case scenerio. Should be an interesting month.

I quoted $350 million. Hope to see it hits $400 though.

[Defiant1]

I'll go with this too but I'll be a little more generous with the opening weekend and say around $125M and a final domestic gross of around $330M. It'll be between this and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince for the #1 movie of the year, domestically speaking.

Hmm, well my opening weekend figure was about $30M below what it really did. It'll be really interesting to see what the final domestic gross will be. This was the last of the summer blockbusters for 2008 (Mummy 3 and X-Files 2 look like moderate grossers at best) so TDK doesn't really have any competition. $400M is a distinct possibility now.

But Titanic is safe.

[abrg923]

CNN's reporting that this will break Spiderman 3's record.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Movies/07/20/dark.knight.ap/index.html

[RichC2]

yeah, apparently it did even better than expected on Friday. $67.85m

[Ram]

Opening Weekend: $160 million

Total Domestic: $360-375 million

Worldwide: $550-575 million

Oh Yeah. Believe the hype! :johnwoo:
Quoted for Truth. :johnwoo:

[movieking]

I nailed the opening on the Box Office Guru Derby game (predicted $155.5M vs actual of $155.4M), but the rest of my predictions for the weekend weren't as good.

[Brack]

Anyone who thought TDK couldn't open as big as Spider-Man 3 because it was too dark wasn't paying attention. Wasn't SM3 sold as a dark movie too?

[raven56706]

Holy box office! 'Dark Knight' sets new record
Batman sequel rakes in record $155 million; beats ‘Spider-Man 3’
The Associated Press
updated 1:19 p.m. ET, Sun., July. 20, 2008

Batman has sent Spidey packing as king of Hollywood’s box-office superheroes.

“The Dark Knight” took in a record $155.34 million in its first weekend, topping the previous best of $151.1 million for “Spider-Man 3” in May 2007 and pacing Hollywood to its biggest weekend ever, according to studio estimates Sunday.

“We knew it would be big, but we never expected to dominate the marketplace like we did,” said Dan Fellman, head of distribution for Warner Bros., which released “The Dark Knight.” The movie should shoot past the $200 million mark by the end of the week, he said.

Hollywood set an overall revenue record of $253 million for a three-day weekend, beating the $218.4 million haul over the weekend of July 7, 2006, according to box-office tracker Media By Numbers.

“This weekend is such a juggernaut,” said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal, whose musical “Mamma Mia!” debuted at No. 2 with $27.6 million.

Factoring in higher admission prices, “Spider-Man 3” may have sold slightly more tickets than “The Dark Knight.”

At 2007’s average price of $6.88, “Spider-Man 3” sold 21.96 million tickets over opening weekend. Media By Numbers estimates today’s average movie prices at $7.08, which means “The Dark Knight” would have sold 21.94 million tickets.

Revenue totals for “The Dark Knight” could change when final numbers are released Monday.

The movie’s release was preceded by months of buzz and speculation over the performance of the late Heath Ledger as the Joker, Batman’s nemesis. Ledger, who died in January from an accidental prescription-drug overdose, played the Joker as a demonic presence, his performance prompting predictions that the role might earn him a posthumous Academy Award nomination.

“The average opening gross of the last five ‘Batman’ movies is $47 million. This tripled that, and for a reason,” said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media By Numbers. “A big part of that was the Heath Ledger mystique and a phenomenal performance that absolutely deserves the excitement surrounding it.”

“The Dark Knight” reunites director Christopher Nolan with his “Batman Begins” star Christian Bale, whose vigilante crime-fighter is taunted and tested by Ledger’s Joker as the villain unleashes violence and chaos on the city of Gotham.

Overseas, “The Dark Knight” added $40 million in 20 countries where it began opening Wednesday, including Australia, Mexico and Brazil. The film opens in Great Britain this weekend and rolls out to most of the rest of the world over the next few weeks.

“The Dark Knight,” which cost $185 million to make, also broke the “Spider-Man 3” record for best debut in IMAX large-screen theaters with $6.2 million. “Spider-Man 3” opened with $4.7 million in IMAX cinemas.

“Every single show is sold out,” said Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president. “We’re adding shows as much as we can, but we’re at 100 percent capacity.”

On opening day Friday, “The Dark Knight” also took in more money than previously counted, Fellman said. The film pulled in a record $67.85 million, up nearly $1.5 million from the studio’s estimates a day earlier.

The previous opening-day record also had been held by “Spider-Man 3” with $59.8 million.

Women accounted for most of the audience for “Mamma Mia!”, which Universal opened as counter-programming to the male-dominated audience for “The Dark Knight.”

“With the crowded summer, we knew we would have to find the right weekend, and this seemed like the perfect one considering three-quarters of our audience was female,” Rocco said.

Based on the stage musical set to the tunes of ABBA, “Mamma Mia!” features Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan, Colin Firth, Stellan Skarsgard, Julie Walters and Christine Baranski.

The weekend’s other new wide release, 20th Century Fox’s animated family flick “Space Chimps,” opened at No. 7 with $7.4 million.
© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[BJacks]

Anyone who thought TDK couldn't open as big as Spider-Man 3 because it was too dark wasn't paying attention. Wasn't SM3 sold as a dark movie too?Somewhat. The marketing played up the black/dark Spider-Man/Venom storyline. And then they snuck in a dance number.

[Brack]

Somewhat. The marketing played up the black/dark Spider-Man/Venom storyline. And then they snuck in a dance number.

that's why I said "sold."

[BullGooseLoony]

I want to be optimistic and say this could crack $400 million, which would be amazing, but I'm probably going to lean more in the direction of $375 million. It's go no real competition for the next week, and no other BIG movie (aside from "The Mummy 3," lol, so word of mouth might really help. Everyone I've spoken to says they will definitely see it again, and that includes me, too.

[Cornelius1047]

I'm probably gonna be proven ridiculously wrong and misguided, but I'm calling it. This will beat Spider-Man 3 and open at $154.7 million. Total domestic? I'll go with $335 million.

K

Well, damn. I was pretty damn close.

$155.3 million, looks like. At least I was right about it beating Spider-Man 3's record. And it definitely deserved to. This movie showed how to do multiple villains damn near flawlessly, something Spider-Man 3 just didn't pull off, as far as I'm concerned.

K

[hapgilmore]

Opening Weekend: 160 mil
Total Domestic: 350 mil
Looks like I was right on the money almost

[hapgilmore]

My guess (domestic):

Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m
The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.
haha

[hapgilmore]

Opening Weekend: $83 million
Total Domestic: $230 million

I don't doubt this is going to be a GREAT movie...what I doubt is that a large portion of the mainstream will go to see it again, since it's more of an epic drama than "summer popcorn flick'. A lot of people are going to be turned off by it.

Keep in mind, folks that if THE DARK KNIGHT rakes in close to $100 million on opening weekend, that will be TWICE what BATMAN BEGINS did on its opening weekend.
HAHA

[hapgilmore]

I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.
HAHA

[wilky61]

BoxOfficeMojo has it at 158.4 on the weekend, where's the extra 3 million come in?

[TheMovieman]

BoxOfficeMojo has it at 158.4 on the weekend, where's the extra 3 million come in?

It happens a lot that the weekend grosses were under estimated. Maybe they (WB) didn't expect such a great hold on Sunday (8% is incredible).



Found this on another forum:
http://i35.tinypic.com/fmsvmu.gif

[stingermck]

So reports are coming out now that Bale has been arrested, accused of assaulting his mom and sister. Will this hurt the receipts?

[TheMovieman]

So reports are coming out now that Bale has been arrested, accused of assaulting his mom and sister. Will this hurt the receipts?

No.

And to expand on my answer, the report is pretty vague. Did he punch either of them? Slap them? Threw a telephone? I wonder if we'll ever know or they'll chalk it up to a family dispute. In any case, Bale (at least to me) hasn't had a pattern of assault or anything, so I can't see if affecting TDK at all.

[Brent L]

It was foolish of anyone to doubt the numbers. When you took everything surrounding the flick, there was no way it wasn't going to be a record setting release.

[pinata242]

So reports are coming out now that Bale has been arrested, accused of assaulting his mom and sister. Will this hurt the receipts?
Guess he lived long enough to see himself become the villain.