4th of July Weekend Box Office 7/3-7/6: Hancock Leads the Way

[Mr. Cinema]

THURSDAY 8:00 a.m. (Pacific): After solid Tuesday night preview business of $6.8 million, Hancock (Sony), featuring mega-star Will Smith, stumbled out of the gate with a less-than-expected $17.2 million on its first full day. If the Peter Berg-directed superhero pic follows a traditional pattern, it will be down today, bigger on Friday because of the holiday, flat or slightly down on Saturday and suffer a 25 percent-35 percent dip on Sunday. All of the sudden, Sony is looking at a less than $100 million for the 5 1/2 days.

To be fair, Sony sources have been very steady in their internal expectations for Hancock at $90 million-$100 million over the 4th of July holiday period, but it looked much stronger to competing studios. Despite the presence of Will Smith, who in the end will have notched for himself a record eighth consecutive $100 million movie, Hancock is an original film, not based on a comic book (like Iron Man) or a toy line (like last year's Transformers).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Hancock (Sony) — $17.2 million, $4,338 PTA, $24.03 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $6.7 million, $1,678 PTA, $86.3 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $3.6 million, $1,134 PTA, $65.51 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $1.8 million, $504 PTA, $84.46 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.4 million, $418 PTA, $184.06 million cume
6. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $1.1 million, $627 PTA, $1.6 million cume
7. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $722,000, $215 PTA, $118.94 million cume
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $489,000, $223 PTA, $141.84 million cume
9. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $489,000, $223 PTA, $301.88 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $424,000, $160 PTA, $27.13 million cume

[KillerCannibal]

I'll bet it pulls in $105m for the 5.5 day weekend. Wed might have been a bit soft, but Fri and Sat should give it some good numbers if word-of-mouth doesn't sink it.

[Trevor]

I think your SitC numbers are off.

Also, I always thought it strange that films that get a 3 day head start are judged against all the rest.

[Mr.Scary]

:lol: @ SitC making 300 million domestically. I don't think so...at least I hope not. :eek:

[chris_sc77]

Looks like Sex and the City and Indiana Jones are neck and neck -wink- .
Sad to see Hancock making all that money.

[Mr. Cinema]

I think your SitC numbers are off.

Also, I always thought it strange that films that get a 3 day head start are judged against all the rest.
Blame Fantasy Moguls. :)

[Zodiac_Speaking]

I think Hancock will have a great opening weekend, but will have no legs. With Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth in 3-D, and, of course, The Dark Knight will factor into it's second and third weeks, but also it is not that good, so word of mouth will kill it.

Probably $160mil dom.

[Mr. Cinema]

Thursday numbers from Showbizdata.com

1. HANCOCK SONY 3,680 16,920,000 4,598 n/a 41,141,400
2. WALL-E DISNEY 3,992 8,335,000 2,088 n/a 94,662,000
3. WANTED UNIVERSAL 3,175 4,655,000 1,466 n/a 70,155,990
4. GET SMART WARNER BROS. 3,915 2,475,000 632 -43% 86,975,000
5. KUNG FU PANDA PARAMOUNT 3,670 1,860,000 507 -40% 187,263,000
6. INCREDIBLE HULK, THE UNIVERSAL 3,349 1,005,000 300 -53% 119,950,065
7. KIT KITTREDGE: AN AMERICAN GIRL MYSTERY PICTUREHOUSE 1,753 920,000 525 n/a 2,533,624
8. INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL PARAMOUNT 2,556 760,000 297 -25% 303,114,000
9. SEX AND THE CITY WARNER BROS. 1,755 645,000 368 -36% 143,044,000
10. LOVE GURU, THE PARAMOUNT 3,012 495,000 164 -62% 28,022,000

[Mr. Cinema]

Fantasy Moguls is projecting a $26 million take for Hancock today.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Hancock (Sony) — $18 million, $4,540 PTA, $59.23 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $10 million, $2,505 PTA, $104.6 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $5.5 million, $1,732 PTA, $75.61 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $3 million, $839 PTA, $89.86 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2 million, $598 PTA, $187.91 million cume
6. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $1.2 million, $358 PTA, $121.14 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $1.1 million, $502 PTA, $303.75 million cume
8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $900,000 million, $513 PTA, $3.41 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $750,000, $588 PTA, $143.26 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $625,000, $236 PTA, $28.25 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Hancock (Sony) — $62 million, $15,637 PTA, $103.23 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney) — $38.5 million, $9,644 PTA, $133.1 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal) — $22.5 million, $7,087 PTA, $92.61 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $10.7 million, $2,994 PTA, $97.56 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.4 million, $2,211 PTA, $193.31 million cume
6. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $4.6 million, $1,371 PTA, $124.54 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $4.4 million, $2,007 PTA, $307.05 million cume
8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $3.5 million, $1,997 PTA, $6.01 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $2.9 million, $2,275 PTA, $145.41 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $2.2 million, $831 PTA, $29.83 million cume

[chris_sc77]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

[Jericho]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.


The movie's been out essentially three days. Do you expect people to stop going to a movie instantaneously because you didn't like it?

[chris_sc77]

^Dont get me wrong. I didnt see it and I wont see it in theaters. I wouldnt pay to see that movie. I'm just surprised people think it looks good. I though the trailers were not good at all and it didnt look funny or exciting. It also didn't get very favorable reviews. (Oh, and it less than 90 minutes and PG-13 compared to the r-rated 126 page script this film originally of which I read some of when this film was called Tonight, He Comes.)
So there is no way in hell I will see it. Still, kudos to Smith proving once again why no one should underestimate the performance of a film of his. He truly is one of the only sure things in terms of box office it seems.

[Shannon Nutt]

...when this film was called Tonight, He Comes


I still find it quite humorous that the producers felt "Hancock" was a less sexually suggestive title that "Tonight, He Comes". :lol:

[fumanstan]

^Dont get me wrong. I didnt see it and I wont see it in theaters. I wouldnt pay to see that movie. I'm just surprised people think it looks good. I though the trailers were not good at all and it didnt look funny or exciting. It also didn't get very favorable reviews. (Oh, and it less than 90 minutes and PG-13 compared to the r-rated 126 page script this film originally of which I read some of when this film was called Tonight, He Comes.)
So there is no way in hell I will see it. Still, kudos to Smith proving once again why no one should underestimate the performance of a film of his. He truly is one of the only sure things in terms of box office it seems.

Didn't you just answer your own question about the film's success? It's Will Smith, it's an action movie, and there's humor and he's a superhero, opening on July 4th weekend. This was destined for a huge take no matter how bad the reviews are. I don't see how anyone could be surprised.

[maingon]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.


Hankcock its pretty good movie, I can see why people are going to see

[Mr. Cinema]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching. Oh, well.
Wonder if Kung Fu Panda will end up with more than Wall-E.
As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.
C'mon. It's a freaking Will Smith movie. At least opening week, people are going to flock to see his new movie. There's a reason he's today's most bankable star.

I'd agree with you if Hancock were played by Martin Lawrence.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

I still have no idea how people are finding Hancock to look worth watching.

Behold the power of Will Smith. I bet he shits gold.

[scott1598]

As for next week I'm hoping Hellboy does good but I dont think it'll make any more than $25 million for the weekend.

no way in heck it is making that little. no way, just won't happen in this market today. wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?

[Seantn]

But Hellboy is PG-13 -- there's NO WAY that movie will be good!

[chris_sc77]

no way in heck it is making that little. no way, just won't happen in this market today. wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?
Nope that isnt me. I was the one who said the new Hulk would only make the same as the 2003 Hulk and poeple argued with me saying who the f*** cares (even though it was a thread about box office.) . Oh, and I was right about that one bythe way.
I do hope I am wrong about hellboy though. I think that they should have opened that film up in March or April like the first one. Being sandwiched between Hancock and Batman is going to make things very hard on the film. I want it to do good so we get a Hellboy 3. But I dont know if it will be able to do more than $60 million. I watched Hellboy : DC for like the 4th or 5th time last weekend and it is such a good film. I'd definitely put it in the top 10 comic book movies ever.

[Seantn]

Nope that isnt me. I was the one who said the new Hulk would only make the same as the 2003 Hulk and poeple argued with me saying who the f*** cares (even though it was a thread about box office.) . Oh, and I was right about that one bythe way.
I do hope I am wrong about hellboy though. I think that they should have opened that film up in March or April like the first one. Being sandwiched between Hancock and Batman is going to make things very hard on the film. I want it to do good so we get a Hellboy 3. But I dont know if it will be able to do more than $60 million. I watched Hellboy : DC for like the 4th or 5th time last weekend and it is such a good film. I'd definitely put it in the top 10 comic book movies ever.

But the first one wasn't a huge hit. It did okay, but not great. Seems wise not to open it when the first one came out.

[Daytripper]

But the first one wasn't a huge hit. It did okay, but not great. Seems wise not to open it when the first one came out.

You're right. It wasn't. But it's word of mouth has made it somewhat of a cult film. And like chris_sc77, I would not only put it in the Top 10 best comic book films, it's my favorite. And gets better with each viewing. I never liked that they planned a summer release. Especially before "Batman". Maybe an August release would have been wiser if they had to do summer at all.

[Sierra Disc]

That's quite the drop for WANTED, what, 70%?

[clemente]

That's quite the drop for WANTED, what, 70%?

51 mil to 22.5 mil...isn't that more like 56%?

[Matthew Chmiel]

You also have to factor in that a lot of people were out of school/work this week, thus the increase of (slightly) higher weekday takes.

[Mr. Cinema]

Box Office Mojo weekend estimates:

1 N Hancock Sony $66,000,000 - 3,965 - $16,645 $107,321,000 - 1
2 1 Wall-E BV $33,417,000 -47.0% 3,992 - $8,370 $128,132,000 $180 2
3 2 Wanted Uni. $20,607,000 -59.5% 3,185 +10 $6,470 $90,775,000 $75 2
4 3 Get Smart WB $11,125,000 -45.0% 3,574 -341 $3,112 $98,115,000 $80 3
5 4 Kung Fu Panda P/DW $7,500,000 -35.9% 3,347 -323 $2,240 $193,395,000 $130 5
6 5 The Incredible Hulk Uni. $4,975,000 -48.1% 3,043 -306 $1,634 $124,917,000 $150 4
7 7 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $3,940,000 -23.9% 2,192 -364 $1,797 $306,590,000 $185 7
8 23 Kit Kittredge: An American Girl PicH $3,601,000 +3,264.8% 1,843 +1,838 $1,953 $6,128,000 - 3
9 9 Sex and the City NL $2,340,000 -38.6% 1,275 -480 $1,835 $144,864,000 $65 6
10 10 You Don't Mess with the Zohan Sony $2,000,000 -37.0% 1,731 -416 $1,155 $94,780,000 $90 5
11 6 The Love Guru Par. $1,700,000 -68.2% 2,648 -364 $641 $29,331,000 $62 3
12 11 Iron Man Par. $1,500,000 -33.5% 1,019 -360 $1,472 $311,758,000 $140 10
13 8 The Happening Fox $1,450,000 -62.9% 1,795 -688 $807 $62,077,000 $60 4

[valkyrie]

Looks like Indy should just barely overtake Iron Man by the end of the summer. Bummer. :) I was hoping IM would hang on there.

[maingon]

Indys been hanging on very well week to week.

[Son of Odin]

Indy doesn't deserve to take the top spot from Iron Man. it was good, but in a summer full of great movies so far it doesn't belong in the top 5. hopefully, marvel holds on and wins the summer. with IM and Hulk, marvel should post an impressive $450m domestic gross.

[TomOpus]

Indy has hit $720 million worldwide and is now 28th all-time worldwide. IM is 44th all-time worldwide.

[cranberries fan]

Come on everyone let's revist Iron Man again!!!!!!

[Hokeyboy]

Who really cares if Indiana Jones makes more than Iron Man? Does it really make a difference? Besides, worldwide totals put Indiana Jones over Iron Man by about $160 million -- a few million domestic aint gonna do much for "bragging rights", for whatever they're worth.

[BigDaddy]

Well I guess now Will Smith is the first and only actor with 8 in a row 100 million. That is quite a streak.

[PopcornTreeCt]

The only compelling reason for rooting for a movie to succeed is because you want to see a sequel. I would say Iron Man has a much better chance of that happening than Indiana Jones does.

[Mr.Scary]

Well I guess now Will Smith is the first and only actor with 8 in a row 100 million. That is quite a streak.

Indeed impressive, considering none of those films have been particularly great. :shrug: At least according to the critical consensus.-wink-

RT
Hancock 37%
I Am Legend 69%
The Pursuit of Happyness 66%
Hitch 69%
Shark Tale 34%
I, Robot 58%
Bad Boys II 24%
Men in Black II 38%

[Seantn]

According to the critical consensus, his three films before Hancock were certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

[Hokeyboy]

The only compelling reason for rooting for a movie to succeed is because you want to see a sequel. I would say Iron Man has a much better chance of that happening than Indiana Jones does.
Yeah but an Iron Man sequel is already a forgone conclusion -- regardless of whether or not it does better than Indiana Jones. I would even say that with its across-the-board critical raves, financial success, and audience word-of-mouth, that the film is (so far) THE success story of the summer.

Also, beach volleyball and groin for

[RD1973]

I know we're only in July, but I'm rooting for Indy to finish #1 for the year. It would make the "nuke the fridge" phrase even more pointless.

[Seantn]

Welcome to the Internet, land of the pointless.

[DarkestPhoenix]

wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?
Nope that isnt me.

Yes, it is.

I say SATC will do well:
Prediction:
Opening Weekend: 33 million --> 57 M
Overall US: 89 million --> 145 M (so far)
Overseas: 107 million --> 198 M (so far)

MY FAVORITE...SOME PREDICTIONS WITH CURRENT NUMBERS.
I think the OP has some good predictions.
Heres mine.

1. The Dark Knight - $328 million AS YET UNKNOWN
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $313 million 306+ M
3. Wall-E - $232 million (I have zero interest in this.) $128+ M
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $217 million (I also have zero interest in this.) 138+ M
5. Iron Man - $188 million 300+ M: BIGGEST MISSED CALL
6. Kung Fu Panda: $168m (Have zero interest in this and all kids movies pretty much 193+ M
7. Sex and the City - $136.5 million ADJUSTED FIGURE…STILL INCORRECTLY
8. Wanted: $135.2 million 90+ M
9. Hancock - $132 million 107+ M: FIRST WEEKEND!
10. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $124 million AS YET UNKNOWN
11. The Incredible Hulk - $118 million 125+ M: YOU ALSO PREDICTED BEFORE THIS WOULD MAKE 132 MILLION AND IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD REACH 150 MILLION.
12. Tropic Thunder - $112 million AS YET UNKNOWN
13. Pineapple Express: $110m million AS YET UNKNOWN
14. Step Brothers - $101 million AS YET UNKNOWN
15. Get Smart - $81 million 98+ M
16. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - $80 million 95+ M
17. X-Files Sequel - $ 77 million (I hope this does good..I'm pulling for it.) AS YET UNKNOWN
18. The Love Guru: $73 million 29+ M
19. Hellboy 2 - $66 million AS YET UNKNOWN
20. Mamma Mia- $65.5 million AS YET UNKNOWN
21. Speed Racer - $54 43+ M: YOUR FIGURES ON THIS MOVIE FLUCTUATED WILDLY, THOUGH YOU DID ACCURATELY PREDICT ITS FAILURE
22. The Happening - $50 million 62+ M
23. Meet Dave - $44.87 million (I hate everyone involved in this production with a passion) AS YET UNKNOWN
24. What Happens in Vegas... - $36.9 million 79+ M
25. Babylon A.D. - $26.8 million (if this is actually even released) AS YET UNKNOWN

MIGHT COME TRUE. MAYBE.
Batman will be No. 1.
Mark my words. Followed by indy, Iron Man, and (ugh..) Wall-E (maybe)

These quotes simply illustrate your wildly different predictions over time, and it took me fifteen minutes to compile, at most. Your SATC predictions changed a lot. Your horrid underestimation of Iron Man and then later changing to make it the #3 movie of the summer. It's not bad you alter your opinions, it's just you state so authoritatively that THIS is DEFINITIVELY how much money this movie will make, then change your exactly accurate figures later without any sort of remembrance of what you said before.

It's hard to say how accurate you are on your predictions, because it's first hard to know which ones we're talking about. If it's your initial thoughts, I think if you adjusted your first gut feeling to about 133% of what you think it will make, you would be very close on your numbers more than 50% of the time. Also, it's hard to evaluate how accurate these will be without final numbers, but if you keep saying you're never wrong, in 6 months or so, I'll do more definitive research.

I don't dislike you, chris, so please don't be offended. I think you're hilarious quite often. But I don't look at your predictions as anything I would bank on.

[Mountain Biker]

Nope that isnt me. I was the one who said the new Hulk would only make the same as the 2003 Hulk and poeple argued with me saying who the f*** cares (even though it was a thread about box office.) . Oh, and I was right about that one bythe way.


Uh, WRONG. First you said the new Hulk would bring in $118 million...then you changed your mind and went with $132 million...then you said it would probably make $150 million....now you're convieniently back to $132 million.



wait...wait, aren't you the one that makes these highly implausible predictions and then recants later on?

I'd say that is pretty spot on.

[chris_sc77]

Uh, WRONG. First you said the new Hulk would bring in $118 million...then you changed your mind and went with $132 million...then you said it would probably make $150 million....now you're convieniently back to $132 million.


My initial summer prediction for Hulk was $118 million.
That was back in April I believe,. WHen the film came out and opened up I said it looked like it wouldnt do more than $132 million. I never said it would probably do $150 million. I said it was a possibility it could do $150 million but I stll didnt believe it would do that.
Overall I'd say my predictions were not too off for the most part.

[GizmoDVD]

Well I guess now Will Smith is the first and only actor with 8 in a row 100 million. That is quite a streak.

He did have 5 days to do it vs. 3. Lame.

[RichC2]

He did have 5 days to do it vs. 3. Lame.

They aren't talking opening grosses, they meant overall.

[Seantn]

He did have 5 days to do it vs. 3. Lame.

I think they just mean a movie in general that passes $100 million during it's run, not simply $100 million within it's opening days. Not all his movies recently have done that.

[DarkestPhoenix]

His string of hits is quite impressive, actually.











*For a Scientologist.