Box Office Predictions: will Speed Racer knock off Iron Man this weekend?

[hapgilmore]

I say no.

[Deftones]

I think it's going to be pretty close. Speed Racer has visual appeal, but the story looks ridiculous. Might turn some people off. I say the positive word of mouth of Iron Man will pretty much keep the normal 2nd weekend dropoff to a minimum.

[Wazootyman]

No. Just downright doesn't look good, I don't think the Wachowski name will draw people. I can't imagine the reviews will be good (I'll say middling--plot bad, effects good and trippy) whereas Iron Man will have really good word of mouth that will carry it.

Even if Ironman drops 60%, I still see it pulling ahead.

[B5Erik]

I loved Speed Racer as a kid back in the 70's. I was hoping that the movie wouldn't suck and might actually be cleverly adapted from the cartoon.

The trailers make it look quite ridiculous and hardly clever. Oversaturated colors, ridiculous car stunts (obvious CGI), and bad acting & dialogue. That certainly doesn't bode well - and I have no interest in seeing this movie.

I could see Speed Racer totally bombing, but they've marketed it to kids so much it might be a minor hit. We'll see - but I think Iron Man may have the legs to hold it off.

[DJariya]

I think Speed Racer is going to be the biggest dud this summer. Visually it looks good, but overall the trailers aren't making me want to go see it.

[Yavin]

No, Speed Racer, No!

[fumanstan]

I say no, but that's from someone actually interested in Speed.

[superdeluxe]

No. Even if Iron Man drops 60%, its still going to be at 40 million.

Speed racer will get between 25-35 million.

So Iron Man: 43 million
Speed Racer: 31 million

[KillerCannibal]

No, it looks terrible. The great word-of-mouth on Iron Man will keep it going strong until Narnia opens.

[Daytripper]

Reviews are starting to come in for "Speed Racer" and as of right now, it looks like it could be split right down the middle when all is said and done. So far, 5 rotten, 3 fresh. That said, I say no way will it be number #1 this weekend.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/speed_racer/

[sundog]

No way. The word of mouth for Iron Man is staggering.

I think Speed Racer will bomb hard; it's too much of a niche market.

Judging from my experience with the Wachowskis, the source material, and the trailers, many viewers (and reviewers) will be alienated by the combination of outlandish visuals and unflagging sincerity. I don't think the Wachowskis have an ironic bone in their bodies (insert joke here).

However, because of the above, Speed Racer is my most anticipated film of the summer blockbuster season. I will be seeing it before Favreau and company's effort (which I am also happily anticipating).

[mcfly]

Speed Racer LOOKS visually entertaining.. but from what I gathered from the trailer it sounds like a snoozer.

I'll be buying the Blu-ray in the Fall for the visuals.. I can't see many people flocking to this.

The only movie that will bump Iron Man out of #1 is Indy in 2 weeks.

[RichC2]

Narnia will bump Iron Man (Narnia #1 was a snoozefest, imo, but a lot of people seem to love it) before Indy. The word of mouth for Iron Man has been somewhat mixed, but more between "It was okay" and "It was fantastic" than "I loved it! I hated it!" so it should hold up well next weekend.

Speed Racer looks kinda cool and I think it will do solid business with the kiddies. But will it knock off Iron Man? Naw.

[superdeluxe]

. The word of mouth for Iron Man has been somewhat mixed, but more between "It was okay" and "It was fantastic" than "I loved it! I hated it!" so it should hold up well next weekend.



Mixed? Its gotten a A- user rating at Yahoo (9500 ratings), its got a 8.4 out of 10, with about 25,000 votes at IMDB (and #99 ranking)

[Maxflier]

Speed Racer looks like a fucking joke, so i'm gonna have to say no on that one.

[Mercury&Solace]

Not a chance. Word of mouth on Iron Man is staggering, no way in hell Speed de-thrones Iron Man. Not until Narnia at least.

[cruzness]

No way I agree with other posters that Speed Racer will bomb and that Iron Man will hold for another week. SR looks too over the top to interest most people

[Groucho]

"Some dude you've never heard of teams up with that guy from Party of Five" = BOX OFFICE GOLD

[slop101]

Iron Man's gonna have word of mouth to keep it strong, and teenagers won't want to see it as much as Iron Man since Speed Racer looks more "family friendly", which teens are too cool for.

[chris_sc77]

No FU**ING way will Speed Racer overtake Iron Man.
At least i seriously hope it wont. Speed Racer looks absolutely horrendous (at least visually it looks like a direct-to-DVD/straight to Sci-fi channel look to it.
I predict
Iron Man = 42.89 million
Speed Racer= 16.79 million (Dont think this will hit $60 million Domestically)

[Dan1boy]

Speed Racer looks dull, uninspiring and aimed straight for the kiddie crowd with the soft PG...very disappointing...this is out for me...

[scott1598]

no. closing thread...

[Mittman]

Iron Man will outsell Speed Racer 2:1.

[Brack]

I hope both do well this weekend.

[rexinnih]

Doubtful but you never know.

[B5Erik]

I was surprised to read Bill Hunt's "review" of Speed Racer on the Digital Bits.

He was GUSHING about it - said it was more fun than Iron Man (he said Iron Man was a better movie, but that Speed Racer was more fun). He noted that much of what you see in the movie is straight out of the cartoon, and that long time Speed Racer fans would love it. He did note that it's a, "Turn your brain off at the door," kind of movie, but that it was extremely entertaining nonetheless.

I just wonder if marketing to the kids and fans of the old cartoon is enough. The cartoon really peaked in popularity in the States in the 70's (when I was a kid), so a large percentage (a majority, most likely) of Speed Racer fans are over 40 and may not even go see this movie. The ads and trailers did a poor job of showing the stuff that's straight out of the comic book, and just made it look stupid instead. (It's like they were trying to keep most of the fanboy stuff as a surprise, but in the process hurt their marketing of the movie.)

I still think that Iron Man will likely hold off Speed Racer this weekend, but maybe Speed Racer's a more entertaining movie than it's being given credit for thus far.

Having said that I'll probably wait for the Blu Ray... ;)

[Charlie Goose]

I don't think so. Iron Man is getting great reviews, so the dropoff won't be much.

Speed Racer looks terrible. And is the original cartoon so well-remembered across the board to ensure a big opening?

[Matthew Chmiel]

Sigh.

I mentioned in last week's box office thread.

Iron Man will hold the number one spot with $46-48 million whereas Speed Racer will be in second with $32-34 million.

It's upsetting as I've heard nothing but positive about Speed Racer from the folks who I know who have caught it early. Too bad Warner didn't know what the hell to do with it as the tracking numbers are borderline awful. However, to be honest, I don't think the mainstream public is ready for a live-action anime.

I'll be there tomorrow night in IMAX as:

1) I actually enjoyed The Matrix sequels (Revolutions was the better of the two).
2) I enjoyed the cartoon when I was younger.
3) Cameo appearance by Ben fuckin' Miles. :thumbsup:

[RichC2]

Yeah I hear Speed Racer is pretty damn entertaining.

Mixed? Its gotten a A- user rating at Yahoo (9500 ratings), its got a 8.4 out of 10, with about 25,000 votes at IMDB (and #99 ranking)

Internet community isn't a particularly strong representation of the masses at large. Shocking, I know. Boondock Saints has a 7.8 on imdb with 55,000 reviews, and a B+ on Yahoo with 9600 votes - and that movie is a giant pile of shite.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

i saw Speed Racer. Its not very good. You can't really spoil the story because you know the climax is a race and you know who's going to win.

My biggest question is where the fuck did Trixie get a helicopter from midway through the movie.

[Mr. Cinema]

No way. Iron Man will still manage $50 million, which will be more than enough for the top spot. I wouldn't be surprised if Speed Racer finishes 3rd, behind What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas. Nobody is excited about Speed Racer. It will be this year's Summer Bomb.

Next week, Prince Caspian arrives and will squash the remaining life out of SR. It'll be lucky to finish with $75 million. Thankfully, WB has The Dark Knight to fall back on.

The movie is 135 minutes long. That's alot of racing time.

[The Bus]

135 minutes for Speed Racer? That's honestly at least 30 minutes too long. It's longer than V for Vendetta. Give me a break.

I think if Keanu and Vince Vaughn had been in Speed Racer, it would've done a lot better. WB is doing promotions, but who cares that John Goodman is in a movie?

[Brent L]

I think that even most of those of you saying no are giving Speed Racer too much credit.

I think it's going to be the biggest dud of the year. It won’t quite be as low or as badly received as, say, Thunderbirds, but it'll be a huge disappointment. I'll be shocked, truly shocked, if I'm wrong on this.

Iron Man will still be #1, and it'll likely make twice as much as what Speed Race brings in, if not even more than that. I'm not even convinced that Speed Racer will be #2. It will be lucky to be able to even reach that high.

[Mr. Cinema]

135 minutes for Speed Racer? That's honestly at least 30 minutes too long. It's longer than V for Vendetta. Give me a break.

I think if Keanu and Vince Vaughn had been in Speed Racer, it would've done a lot better. WB is doing promotions, but who cares that John Goodman is in a movie?
The runtime is insane. This is a movie based off of a cheesy 60s cartoon. Not a whole lot of substance there. This should have been 90 minutes tops.

[BravesMG]

Holy crap, 135 min?? That just checked it off my list, or at best I'll randomly catch it on a boring day. No way I can drag people that already don't want to see it if it runs that long.

[Brack]

135 minutes long? haha, ADD, FTW.

[Kicker_of_Elves]

Nope, word of mouth will keep Iron Man in the top spot.

[Jericho]

I don't think the word of mouth on Iron Man really matters. Very few movies really hang around these days (except family films), and I don't think Iron Man will be different. Narnia and Indiana Jones will push it to the background. Even if it does "have legs", that's more for Weeks 5 and 6, not so important in Week 2.

Still, I can't see Speed Racer beating it. Even with a 50-60% drop, Iron Man takes in $40 million minimum. And I don't see Speed Racer doing those numbers.

[RichC2]

WOM matters most in the second week, imho, as it's what carried movies like Wedding Crashers to huge success (extremely small drop in the second weekend, when the drop hurts the most.)

[Brack]

WOM matters most in the second week, imho, as it's what carried movies like Wedding Crashers to huge success (extremely small drop in the second weekend, when the drop hurts the most.)

well, something that opens as big as Iron Man will have a decent-sized drop in the second weekend.

[Burgundy LaRue]

Those nostalgic for Speed Racer will be turned off by the awful trailer. Kids have little or no idea who or what SR is. It's doomed for medicority, if it's that lucky. Iron Man will beat SR by $10-15 million.

[hapgilmore]

Is it me, or does it seem like every big movie released in the second week of May flops? Well, the only example I can think of is Poseidon. Kingdom of Heaven may have been in the same boat, I can't remember when that came out exactly.

[Brack]

Van Helsing quickly ran out of steam.

[Mr. Cinema]

Is it me, or does it seem like every big movie released in the second week of May flops? Well, the only example I can think of is Poseidon. Kingdom of Heaven may have been in the same boat, I can't remember when that came out exactly.
It does sort of seem that way. Poseidon followed MI3 with an opening around $20 million. Kingdom of Heaven kicked off the Summer in '05 with only $19 million.

Battefield Earth followed Gladiator with only $11 million opening. Although that would've tanked in any month.

Looking back, there's not been many 1-2 punches in May. Van Helsing ($51 million) and Troy ($46 million) were back to back big openers. That's about it in recent years. Nothing big followed Spiderman 1 or 3, and rightly so. There was no big follow up to The Mummy Returns 2nd weekend either.

[mcfly]

X-Men 3 came out at the end of May. Then there were the Star Wars prequels.

Although, I think those were the end of May.

[Dashed]

The question is, If Iron Man does have a huge drop next week will people say that the movie is not a huge success? I mean The movie already made over half what was expected. (at least what I expected $400 Billion world wide)

[mcfly]

I dunno.. reviews are pretty bad, too (granted there are only 19 total, but still 12 of them are "rotten")

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/speed_racer/

[Brent L]

Not to mention that it's sitting at 0% for the CotC rating (again, not many reviews there yet, but still).

[mhg83]

But it has a monkey in it. How can it go wrong?

[Brack]

I dunno.. reviews are pretty bad, too (granted there are only 19 total, but still 12 of them are "rotten")

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/speed_racer/

wow, not a single reviewer worth reading.

*Edit* who gave it a negative review.

[Mr. Cinema]

The question is, If Iron Man does have a huge drop next week will people say that the movie is not a huge success? I mean The movie already made over half what was expected. (at least what I expected $400 Billion world wide)
Nah, it's a hit. Not only that, but it's one of, if not the, best reviewed films of the year.

By the time Prince Caspian releases, it'll be close, or have passed, the $200 million mark.

If it drops between 40-50% this weekend, I think it'll definitely reach $250 million or more. That's a hit in my book.

Through Tuesday, Iron Man's 5 day total is already $115 million.

[fumanstan]

I think the word of mouth is too solid for it to have a "Hulk" like drop.

[dan30oly]

I don't think speed racer will pull in $15M.

The movie looks just plain stupid.

I believe this will be the first official BOMB of the year.

[Matthew Chmiel]

I honestly don't think most people understand what the brothers are trying to do with Speed Racer.

It's a live action anime. A live action anime based off a cheesy '60s cartoon no less.

If I am entertained, that's all that matters in this case. I'm not going in expecting a David Lean-esque epic. I'm just looking to have some fun for two hours off a film based of a cartoon I dug when I was a kid.

[gotrice487]

Iron Man should be able to hold its ground

[The Bus]

If it drops between 40-50% this weekend, I think it'll definitely reach $250 million or more. That's a hit in my book.

Through Tuesday, Iron Man's 5 day total is already $115 million.

Any drop significantly larger than 50% will be surprising, considering the good word of mouth.

[Matthew Chmiel]

I just came from an IMAX showing of Speed Racer.

For a theater that holds 300 people, there was about 30-35 people in attendance. Compare that to a sold out showing of Iron Man last week.

It's a shame as the film is quite entertaining.

[Brack]

I just came from an IMAX showing of Speed Racer.

For a theater that holds 300 people, there was about 30-35 people in attendance. Compare that to a sold out showing of Iron Man last week.

It's a shame as the film is quite entertaining.

Kids generally don't go to midnight showings, so it really doesn't mean anything at this point.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Kids generally don't go to midnight showings, so it really doesn't mean anything at this point.
I saw Shrek the Third last year at (I believe) a 10:30pm showing on the Thursday before it's Friday release. Had about triple the audience with everyone being over the age of 17.

I also feel Speed Racer has a wider appeal as it's based off a '60s cartoon whereas Shrek the Third was more gung-ho towards children dragging their parents along.

[Brack]

I saw Shrek the Third last year at (I believe) a 10:30pm showing on the Thursday before it's Friday release. Had about triple the audience with everyone being over the age of 17.

I also feel Speed Racer has a wider appeal as it's based off a '60s cartoon whereas Shrek the Third was more gung-ho towards children dragging their parents along.

Shrek the Third and the comfort of being a second sequel to an already popular franchise. And more than kids like Shrek.

Oh well, if it bombs it bombs. About to go see it at the IMAX in just a couple of hours, glad to hear a "real" person liked it.

[Mr. Cinema]

I wouldn't watch this for free. And based on reviews, you WON'T be entertained. It looks like shit.

As more time goes on, it looks like The Matrix was a fluke.

[Matthew Chmiel]

As more time goes on, it looks like The Matrix was a fluke.
I don't know if you heard of this, but they made this film in 1996 called Bound which was pretty good as well.

For a pair of directors who have made nothing but R-rated fare full of violence and lesbians to succeed at what is family fare, IMO, is pretty huge.

I honestly have no idea what expectations most of you are holding towards this film.

[Trevor]

I would love to see Speed Racer a hit, was a favorite as a kid and love the DVDs of the classic episodes.

But how can anyone see the online footage/trailers and not know that this film is going to flop big time. It looks like utter crap.

I hope I'm wrong, and that it becomes a quirky cult hit that weirdos like me would appreciate. But there is NO chance of the general public liking this film. Again, it looks amazingly horid from the trailers.

[TomOpus]

Judging by what people are reporting in the review thread, many of the theaters are sparsely attended for Speed Racer. I'm sure it'll pick up this weekend but it's not a good sign. Sounds like people are enjoying it so it'll probably won't have a huge drop-off due to word-of-mouth.

[wirebendr]

The Friday estimates are in and Iron Man was leading at $15 million to $5 million for Spead Racer. Even the Vegas movie was beating SR coming in 2nd. Can't say I didn't expect that.

[Mr. Cinema]

No way. Iron Man will still manage $50 million, which will be more than enough for the top spot. I wouldn't be surprised if Speed Racer finishes 3rd, behind What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas. Nobody is excited about Speed Racer. It will be this year's Summer Bomb.

Next week, Prince Caspian arrives and will squash the remaining life out of SR. It'll be lucky to finish with $75 million. Thankfully, WB has The Dark Knight to fall back on.

The movie is 135 minutes long. That's alot of racing time.
Looks like the bolded part may happen.

[Brack]

I guess there wasn't enough of a push for "Speed" on Nickelodeon and the like. I don't watch that channel anymore, so I don't know for sure.