Okay, I admit it, I suck when it comes to betting on football. I have come to my own realization that betting a parlay is for suckers (such as myself.) I hear it over and over again, do research before placing your bets. What I want to know is, what do you guys do before you place your bets? Do you look at pasdt games, weather etc or do you just look at the line and just go with your gut? I mean, there are many people here on dvdtalk that do fairly well betting football, why not share some "secrets" or better yet, some basic tips.
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-09-07, 01:23 PM
covers.com Check the forums
wagerline.com Check the consensus pick drop down menu
You start reading all these different articles and different stories and expert picks it will just screw you up more. I have a winning record when I go with gut and probably a losing record when I listen to expert opinion. But sometimes an expert's opinion if I agree with it that will solidify my decision. You have to have some knowledge of the game, but the bookies are the ones that make the money.
Anything above 55% success is considered good in terms of betting.
Here's one I shouldnt give away, but really who's reading. If the over/under is 10+ pts less than what the PF(points for) for both teams combined is, bet the under. Example
GB vs. Vikings, if the GB PF is 26 and the Vikings is 22 combined total of 48 and the over under is 38 or less take the under. Works for NBA as well. The under should pay more often than the over as the public likes to see high scoring games and most of the money goes on overs in any given game pushing the O/U a pt or 2 higher than what it should be.
Yeah Parlays are stupid, but I usually do well with 2-4 team teases. 13 pts for 4 team teasers or the 6 pts for 2 team teasers are usually the easiest. Tease a 7 pt favorite down to -1. Tease a colts-13 down to a pick em.
Lunatikk
10-09-07, 01:45 PM
Gut + injury report for me
das Monkey
10-09-07, 02:14 PM
Everyone has access to the same research. What separates good investors from bad bettors is watching and analyzing the games themselves. Ignore the hype, ignore the "experts", and bet what <i>you</i> know, not the stats. For example, I'm 7-1 betting on Notre Dame lines this season (lost a 2nd half under on the Purdue game). Why? I know Notre Dame football. Typically, you don't want to bet on "your team", but if you can pull a Spock and separate emotion from the equation, there's a lot of potential there.
Parlays and teasers are not always for suckers. They're great for correlative lines. Take last night's second half line of Dallas -10.5 / OU 23.5. If Buffalo scores one touchdown, then Dallas has to score 18 to cover, which is a total of at least 25. So if you like the Dallas line, as yourself if you think Buffalo can score one TD. If you think they can, parlay it. I knew Buffalo's offense was shit and backed off. Turns out they get a kick return TD instead, but Dallas doesn't get their share and neither covers. (Some places won't let you parlay like this, especially baseball games, but many will). That's not the best example, but it's fresh in my memory. When you're looking at parlays, think correlative events. "The only way Team A can win this game is if they score a ton of points, because their defense is shot to hell, and Team B is going to get their points." If you're taking Team A to win, consider parlaying the over as well. Most games don't have a good parlay option, but some do, more often 2nd half lines in college.
Teasers have their place too. Every week in the NFL, there's one team favored by 6 or 7 that is a virtual lock to win. Steelers/Seahawks this past week. There's no way in hell the Seahawks win that game. The Seahawks play in Canada and have huge home/away swings, especially against East Coast opponents. The Steelers are also a significantly better team, even without Polamalu. Teasing the Steelers to win by any score is a great opportunity ... <i>if</i> there's another game to pair it with. This past week didn't offer too much, but Tennessee -8 teased down to -2 was promising, so I went with it. Every other week there's a really good teaser opportunity to be had, but almost always just in the NFL, where teams perform more consistently and play within a much smaller scoring range. 6 points in college doesn't mean much (except some SEC games). 6 points in the pros is huge. The best use is if you can find 2 teams favored between 7 and 8.5 with out-of-balance chances of winning outright. Not every 7-8.5 line is like that, so you can't just tease them blindly. Be very careful with the Colts. You may see them with an 8.5 line, but they win more games by 1 or 2 points than you would think. Also, look for OU lines in the low 30s. If you can tease out 20% of the line, that's often a good thing.
These are isolated opportunities, though. Most of the time, you just want straight lines. And you have to watch all the games and monitor all the lines until something jumps out at you. Most lines are a toss-up, and you're getting less than 50%, so stay away. Only bet the good lines, not the games that are on TV.
Look for overhype. The Bengals are flashy, but they're a broken franchise. Wait for a good chance to win big off them, like when they play a real team like the Pats. The Seahawks play in a joke of a division and always end up winning a lot of games, but they're never actually that good. Wait for them to travel to the East Coast against a decent team, and load up. On the flipside, they play in Canada and have a great home crowd. Wait for an average to below average East Coast team to fly out there for a day game, and load up. On that note, the 49ers have been one of the worst road teams in the history of the league for years.
Learn match-ups. Indy struggles with Jacksonville every year, and now that Tennessee has Vince Young, they're a tough test too. New England has all kinds of problems with Miami, particularly on the road with the climate shift. It's tempting to think Indy and New England will every game big, but know the match-ups and walk away from bad situations. Don't underestimate the power of divisional rivalries. These teams play twice every season and know each other much better than other teams. Arizona and San Fran are going down to the wire every time.
In the end, there is no secret. You have to watch the games and learn strengths and weaknesses and players and match-ups. Who struggles against a mobile QB? Who won't be able to score if Champ Bailey blankets their #1? Which QBs can pick apart a contain defense, but get slaughtered against good blitzing teams? Everyone has access to the stats online. There's no edge there. The only way to be really successful is to really learn and understand the game.
Some easy tips:
- If Jaws picks against the Eagles, <i>run</i> to bet against them. He's a huge homer, so if he's going the other way, they're dead.
- Take any Over 70 or below for Hawaii at home in conference.
- Unless the score is ridiculous at halftime, take 2nd half overs at Texas Tech
- Contrary to the previous two tips, bet unders. People like betting overs because they're more fun, but they push the lines out of whack. There's a lot of money in unders, especially in big nationally televised games with lots of action.
- Don't be afraid to bet the close dog cover in the NFL. It's tempting to just take the moneyline, but NFL games are frequently very close, and nothing sucks more than blowing off a +3 for the moneyline on a 2-pt loss.
- Most importantly, don't listen to other people, especially me.
das
Red Dog
10-09-07, 02:33 PM
Yeah, I'd clean up if I bet Redskins games. Just can't bring myself to do it.
I do pretty well betting Maryland football games. I'm not really emotionally invested in Terps football like I am Terps basketball, which I can't bet.
El Scorcho
10-09-07, 03:44 PM
I"ve never ever ever seen lines where:
Team A: Over/Under X
Team B: Over/Under Y
Where the whole game Over/under was significantly deviant from (X+Y). Ever.
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-09-07, 04:54 PM
It happens, maybe not every week, but look at NBA games too, there are 100 games a week in the NBA, whenever there is a large variance as I stated above take a shot, its close to 60% success.
There's always the home underdog too which is around 53-55% winner.
Bill Geiger
10-09-07, 06:31 PM
I agree, there is no secret. Basically, just looking for tips as my betting strategy has been very poor. The thing I get caught up in is the money. I could have 5 winners out of a six team parlay. The 6th game is usually the one I "figured would cover" but basically added it for more of a big winner. However, I end up shooting myself in the foot.
Thanks for the sites to check out as well. I have now printed all of this and decided to write a book. Look out Wayne Allen Root! :lol:
Red Dog
10-09-07, 07:38 PM
If you are betting 6-team parlays, then that's your problem right there. :lol:
Bill Geiger
10-09-07, 11:06 PM
If you are betting 6-team parlays, then that's your problem right there. :lol:
It isn't all the time, I want to be clear on that. It is usually just a bet to "pass the time." However, I have won them before.
das Monkey
10-10-07, 09:53 PM
Every week in the NFL, there's one team favored by 6 or 7 that is a virtual lock to win.
See if you can spot this week's.
das
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-10-07, 10:11 PM
Browns at home -5 over the dolphins
Bears -6 at home over the vikings
Patriots -6 at Dallas
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-12-07, 02:02 PM
Always bet the under in playoff baseball games. It seems like 80% of them fall under, but its probably somewhere in the high 50s %
Pitching dominates and its hard to hit a baseball in cold weather.
Red Dog
10-12-07, 05:01 PM
Browns at home -5 over the dolphins
Bears -6 at home over the vikings
Patriots -6 at Dallas
None of the above. Well, the Pats are close. There is a better virtual lock out there.
DeltaSigChi4
10-12-07, 05:23 PM
There is no such thing as "l-word". I hate the "l-word".
But I have my largest investment of the NFL season on the Pats this week.
Will double it up if the line moves a half a point before gametime.
E
El Scorcho
10-12-07, 05:26 PM
I don't think the Pats/Boys game is going to be anywhere near the lock that people think it will be.
The Cow
10-13-07, 01:28 PM
Bungles.
Red Dog
10-13-07, 06:56 PM
- Unless the score is ridiculous at halftime, take 2nd half overs at Texas Tech
Or not.
das Monkey
10-13-07, 09:14 PM
Or not.
Hey, it's not 100% :)
das
The Cow
10-14-07, 02:21 PM
Bungles.
:lol:
DeltaSigChi4
10-15-07, 10:39 AM
I don't think the Pats/Boys game is going to be anywhere near the lock that people think it will be.
It was. They could play again today, and the outcome would be similar. Tomorrow, same. Next week ... you guessed it, same. :handshake:
E
WallyOPD
10-15-07, 12:00 PM
It was. They could play again today, and the outcome would be similar. Tomorrow, same. Next week ... you guessed it, same. :handshake:
E
Bold predictions like these, made after the games have been played, aren't particularly helpful in a gambling thread.
El Scorcho
10-15-07, 12:29 PM
It was. They could play again today, and the outcome would be similar. Tomorrow, same. Next week ... you guessed it, same. :handshake:
E
The final score does not indicate how the game was actually pretty close, what with the Cowboys taking the lead in the 2nd half and all. I didn't say that New England wasn't going to cover, just that it wasn't going to be the runaway lock-of-the-year game that everyone thought it was going to be -- and it wasn't.
das Monkey
10-15-07, 02:58 PM
I don't think the game was that close. If Dallas doesn't get that fumble TD, the game's over before halftime. The Cowboys deserve credit for creating that opportunity and for briefly taking the lead with their first possession of the 2nd half (Romo played very well -- I was impressed), but they showed zero ability to stop the Pats' offense, and even when they led, it was clear the Pats were still going to win. They lost Watson and Morris (and were already without Maroney), and there was still no slowing them down. The game was never in doubt, and if they play it 20 times, the Pats win 19 of them and likely cover the spread in almost as many. Even if the Cowboys play their best game of the season, I still would like the Pats by 3.
We'll just have to disagree here, because as teasing 6-point spreads goes, that was about as close to a lock as I've seen in quite some time. No way the Pats lose to an inferior NFC team coming off an emotional late-night short-week travel game with a young QB where the coach has questioned their integrity and star player has called out 81. The Pats may drop some games this year, but this was not going to be the one. You'll either have to be incredibly good or sneak up on them. Neither was the case here. Anything can happen in the NFL, and no bet is completely safe, but I'll take odds like that every time if they're available. Teasing this one was tough, though, because there really wasn't a strong second game. I went with the Jags and was happy to win, but it wasn't the best of choices. A more disciplined bettor may have walked away, but where's the fun in that. :) I also doubled up with Pats -5.5 when I saw that. -6 seemed like a crazy line to me (as I said in the other thread, it should have been 7.5), but 5.5 was too insane not to take. This is probably the last week we'll see advantageous lines with the Pats. Even the most skeptical bettors have to start giving them credit now.
das
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-16-07, 11:52 AM
Yeah without that defensive TD the game is a blowout. It might have been Brady's worst game of the season, 5 TD's and all.
I took the pats straight up for my big bet
THen I teased
Pats and the over(down to 47 )
Pats and the Titans
Pats and the seahawks
Bears and the Browns.
Went 2-2 with my teasers and My big bet on the pats straight up made it a winning week.
das Monkey
10-16-07, 05:02 PM
It might have been Brady's worst game of the season, 5 TD's and all.
Not sure I agree with that. He played pretty darn well against a solid Dallas defense. Sure, there were a few sacks and the forced fumble, but I think Brady's worst game was Cleveland the week before. The offense really sputtered in the 2nd half and struggled to convert 3rd downs through the air, and that was against arguably the worst pass defense in the league. It got bad enough that he was visibly angry during the 4th quarter. It sounds silly to point out that their offense "only" got 3 TDs, but when talking about this Patriot team and the Browns defense they were facing, it was an off week for them. Of course, knowing I'd be looking to lay action on them against Dallas, this was great to see, because you knew Belichick would rip them apart for all the mistakes after the game and keep them from getting complacent.
das
Bill Geiger
10-17-07, 11:03 AM
I had a teaser (13 points) on the Dallas game as well as others. My bet was as follows:
Dallas +19.5 (damn Pats for scoring a TD with 19 seconds instead of kicking a field goal)
Dallas/Pats Over 40
Chargers +3
Chargers/Raiders Over 30
I chalk it up to just bad luck. Maybe I will have some luck in Vegas.
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-17-07, 12:00 PM
You cant blame Brady for getting sacked or a fumble. His O line has been great ever since he came into the league. Brady is not a scrambler either, he's strictly a pocket passer. What makes Brady so great is his ability to read defenses, minimize mistakes/turnovers and 2:00 drills. I guess Cleveland was a bad game as well, Im looking at strictly completion % which he has been off the charts with so far this year, and a few of brady's bombs were 5-10 yards off. I didnt have the browns game televised.
dick_grayson
10-17-07, 12:09 PM
parlays are the only thing I understand. teasers, round robins, double reach-arounds...etc are all Greek to me
das Monkey
10-17-07, 02:54 PM
You cant blame Brady for getting sacked or a fumble. His O line has been great ever since he came into the league. Brady is not a scrambler either, he's strictly a pocket passer. What makes Brady so great is his ability to read defenses, minimize mistakes/turnovers and 2:00 drills. I guess Cleveland was a bad game as well, Im looking at strictly completion % which he has been off the charts with so far this year, and a few of brady's bombs were 5-10 yards off. I didnt have the browns game televised.
I don't blame him for the sacks or fumble at all. And hey, Dallas has a good D. They were bound to get in the backfield against him.
I have 5 Pats on my fantasy team (not planned, I promise :lol: ), so I end up watching all their games hoping <i>this</i> is the week their defense gives up enough points that Brady can complete a game and get me into the 350-yd bonus. Anyway, I hadn't checked the stats when I posted about the Cleveland game, but looking at completion percentage, it appears to be his worst by a good 10 points, and 15 points off his average. It's also his lowest passer rating by about 10 points. When you consider how bad the Browns pass defense is, it looks even worse. Can't be comforting to the league when a bad day for Brady goes for 3 TDs, 265 yards, and no INTs. -eek-
This brings me to another football betting tip: get into a good fantasy league. As I said in my original post, the absolute best thing you can do is <i>watch the games</i>. Everyone has access to the stats. There's rarely an edge to be found in stats alone. To be successful, you need to see beyond the stats to the intangibles, and there's no better way to do that (from home) than watching the games in their entirety. Before I started playing fantasy football, I had a hard time forcing myself to watch a game unless I had action on it. Now, it's much easier to find a reason to watch a lot of games I'd never bet, which in turn makes me much more prepared for betting opportunities later in the season. I don't know if <b>Red Dog</b> charts his performance or not, but I'd be willing to bet (har har) that he does better this season (probably more next season) than ever before now that he's finally entered the 21st century. :)
das
Red Dog
10-17-07, 03:11 PM
This brings me to another football betting tip: get into a good fantasy league. As I said in my original post, the absolute best thing you can do is <i>watch the games</i>. Everyone has access to the stats. There's rarely an edge to be found in stats alone. To be successful, you need to see beyond the stats to the intangibles, and there's no better way to do that (from home) than watching the games in their entirety. Before I started playing fantasy football, I had a hard time forcing myself to watch a game unless I had action on it. Now, it's much easier to find a reason to watch a lot of games I'd never bet, which in turn makes me much more prepared for betting opportunities later in the season. I don't know if <b>Red Dog</b> charts his performance or not, but I'd be willing to bet (har har) that he does better this season (probably more next season) than ever before now that he's finally entered the 21st century. :)
das
We'll see. I'm down a little on the season, mainly because of my lackluster pro performance, although what really fucked me last weekend was the OBC allowing UNC to backdoor cover. Maybe it is information overload. Also, I frequently went to friends houses or bars on Sundays in years past so it's not really that different except that I can sit on my own couch now.
However, I've usually done very well betting on the NFL playoffs (Super Bowl not as much) and that's a function of having seen a lot of the playoff teams in frequently on tv during the regular season.
El Scorcho
10-17-07, 04:32 PM
parlays are the only thing I understand. teasers, round robins, double reach-arounds...etc are all Greek to me
Teaser is the same as a parlay, only you get to move the lines 6-7 points in your favor at the expense of reduced odds.
For instance, if you teased Team A +6 and Team C -3, your 2 team teaser parlay would then become Team A +13 and Team C +4.
A round-robin is every possible parlay combination in a set of picks at a fixed price per pick.
For instance, a $5 round-robin with teams X, Y, and Z results in:
One three-team parlay (XYZ) - $5
Three two-team parlays (XY, XZ, YZ) - $5 each
Of course, when you go up to 4 teams and higher, the combinations increase and so does the overall price.
Red Dog
10-17-07, 05:08 PM
Teasers also require 10% more juice than a regular bet and if any part of a teaser pushes (like happened to me a few weeks ago when I had TB +19 at Indy), you lose, unlike in a parlay where the game just drops out of your parlay.
You can also do 3-team teasers with a 10-pt move.
Jacoby Ellsbury
10-18-07, 10:08 AM
Depends on the site, I believe at bodog if a teaser pushes then you get your money back, no winner
Bill Geiger
10-18-07, 11:23 AM
Also, they have a sweetheart teaser if you bet 3 or 4, and you can get up to 13 points.
Buy: