The Simpsons Movie box office predictions

[hapgilmore]

Last year I started a Snakes on a Plane box office predictions thread because I felt it would be very difficult to guess how much money it would make opening weekend. I think The Simpsons Movie is also going to be hard to predict so feel free to post your guesstimations on the opening weekend and/or total box office. I say 45 mil for the weekend and 130 mil overall.

[DonnachaOne]

It'll be huge. I've already presold a ton of tickets.

[Deftones]

I would say, probably a $60 million dollar weekend. It'll break a $100 million, which should justify the show living on via movies should it ever go off television.

[nateman]

$60 million + without a doubt, and even through it's not the most watched TV show in primetime anymore (never has been) it's extremely popular & even people who have never seen the show will probally go and see The Simpsons: Movie based on The Simpsons name alone. Can't wait ti'll it's released on DVD (don't go to theaters anymore) & I hope it's not a huge letdown, like the past 8 seasons.
I would have preferred if The Simpsons: Movie was made after the TV show ended, but since their is probally no end in sight I understand why they are finally releasing it. I personally think it's about 8/9 seasons too late & it should have been ideally made when The Simpsons was still the mecca of Television.
Like DonnachaOne said, It'll be HUGE.

[eedoon]

I'm guessing... some 100 million give or take.

[Bandit03]

60+ million without a doubt. Lots of people have been waiting for this movie for a long time.

[silentbob007]

I'd guess closer to 40 million opening weekend

[KillerCannibal]

I'm thinking about $47 mil. It's a HUGE show, no question, but a lot of people that still love it miss the old heydays and that could be enough to keep them away from the theater waiting for the DVD. But not me. I'll be there opening weekend.

[wm lopez]

Did anyone hear when they announced that a SIMPSONS movie was coming out that it was going to be done like the cartoons from PIXAR?
I read it in USA TODAY or ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY I'm sure .
But after seeing the trailers it's just like the t.v. cartoon.

[Brent L]

One of the biggest things going for this flick is that there will more than likely be a ton of people out there who not only watch this once in the theater, but will go back two, three, or more times, depending on the quality of the final product. Heck, I'm a huge Simpsons fan, so I just might watch it more than once myself, again depending on just how good it ends up being.

It'll be a huge, huge hit, no doubt.

[Groucho]

Poll aims much much too low. $60million+ easily

[Seantn]

But after seeing the trailers it's just like the t.v. cartoon.

No, it's not just like the tv cartoon. I saw the trailer on my friend's high definition tv, and the animation appears to be done a little differently. Some scenes, such as Smithers in Mr. Burns office, appear to look almost 3-D, like there are layers to the animation that are clearly visible. It looked weird, but not necessarily in a bad way. Just different than the normal Simpsons.

[d2cheer]

My kids are more excited to see this than any movie this summer and we have seen the major ones. I think it will do over 60+ easy.

[TheNightFlier]

I'm thinking over 60+

[The Bus]

I'm guessing it won't do as well and will do somewhere around $29MM. But there is a LOT of promotion going for it. I hope I'm proved wrong.

[chris_sc77]

I am gonna go ahead and say that this is gonna end up as the #2 animated film of the year. (2nd to Shrek, although in a perfect world this would outgross Shrek)
1st 3 days= 82.2 million
Overall U.S.= 244 million

Also on a side not it sucks that they are going to be putting on the Horton Hears a Who and the Alvin & the Chipmunks trailers on the Simpsons movie.
I was hoping to see some good trailers on the Simpsons Movie. Oh well hopefully the Batman trailer will be on it like rumoured.

[Bluelitespecial]

over 60 million easily, its one of the last big movies of the summer.

[Jericho]

Well I'll be the voice of dissent. I don't see this movie being that big. I know that the Simpsons are big on the internet and with people on this forum. And I'm one of those many fans. But I look at a show that was never that popular (outside it's short first season) and has been widely criticized by many for a drop in quality in recent years. I look at South Park and see how little it made in theaters.

Granted the South Park analogy isn't a great one. It was a cable show that went for a hard "R" rating and wasn't as well know as the Simpsons. But it does help show the disparity of what's hot on the Internet (also Snakes on a Plane), but not hot with the general public.

I don't see the Simpsons doing the huge figures listed in this thread, something even Pixar's movie didn't do this year. I'm guessing around $20 million-$25 million, since I'm sure there's a decent built in fan base out there for opening weekend.

Of course, I'm just speculating, I could be way off.

[Groucho]

Did "Snakes on the Plane" have a 7/11 tie-in and commercials every five seconds on every network?

[Rogue588]

As much as I hope i'm wrong, I agree with Jericho.

[Groucho]

Hope you guys save up a good appetite for next weekend:

http://img53.imageshack.us/img53/6660/crowai7.jpg

[JohnDoeUSA]

I think the Movie will go pretty big in the first Weekend and will have small legs to carry it for a month or so. Simpsons are Icons and this movie will pull in a lot of different groups of movie watchers.

I voted $60+ but it may only do $40 to $50. I think $200 to $250 for domestic gross is within reach.

Should be interesting to watch!

[Brent L]

Everyone I know and talk to, both online and in "real life", is talking about this movie. My nieces and nephews, my parents, my cousin, all of my friends no matter their age. I'm not expecting everyone to go see it, but I think it's a safe bet that it'll make far more than $20 million at the box office opening weekend.

[EdTheRipper]

I hope it opens huge because it's the last movie in my Fantasy Moguls studio,lol.

[movieking]

Wow, I am surprised by all of the high estimates. Before reading this thread, I was thinking about $27-$30M, but now I am starting to think that it is probably too low.

[movieguru]

I don't see it doing extremely well in theatres. opening week maybe around 30 million. Look at any movie based on a tv show still on the air producing new episodes. I can't think of any that had a very opening. Beavis and Butthead, Rugrats, SouthPark, Twin Peaks, X-files, etc. Not too many people will pay to see a movie of a show that they can watch on television for free.

[Jericho]

Well looking up the X-Files, it did pull in $30 million on opening weekend (although it was very front loaded), and that was in 1998. The Simpsons probably has broader appeal, although the timing of the X-Files movie was probably better (at the peak of its popularity). Both shows were relatively popular for Fox shows, and both probably have a pretty dedicated fan base. So maybe I was low on my estimate, but I'll stick to it.

[Artman]

Wow, I am surprised by all of the high estimates. Before reading this thread, I was thinking about $27-$30M, but now I am starting to think that it is probably too low.

Same here - I'll guess 30-40 mill though, and a low 100+ million total (still much better than I initially thought). The marketing's been perfect and the previews always get big laughs at the theater - and the backgrounds and animation do look pretty cool on the big screen.

A buttery bag of popcorn and some heavily salted snack treats at the theater might be the way to go.

[whoisKeel]

I think it is hard to compare The Simpsons Movie to other TV Show movies. Sure, a ton of us quit watching 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11 years ago...but that's just it...there's a very large demographic and age span that loves or did love The Simpsons at one point or another. It seems like everyone I talk to is excited about this movie, like all of the sudden The Simpsons is going to be good again like the way we remember it. I hope it is at least (I'm in the shoulda quit while ahead category).

I say $40 minimum, with $60+ a definite possibility..so I vote $50-60

[Numanoid]

If the Transformers fanboys can give that flick a record open, surely there are more Simpsons freaks that can do the same. I'll wait for the reviews, but it may end up being the first film I venture to the theater for this year.

[Rogue588]

The OP should've made this a public poll..

[Mr. Cinema]

I voted for a $30-$40 million opening. I'm guessing a final gross between $125 - $150 million.

I think alot of people, including myself, are much more excited about the movie that opens the following weekend, The Bourne Ultimatum. That's a film that should open to over $60 million.

[matome]

30-40 mil

[RichC2]

I'm going with $27.4m

[Charlie Goose]

63 million.

Even my wife wants to see this and, to the best of my knowledge, she's never watched the show. Which is kind of odd.

[The Bus]

If the Transformers fanboys can give that flick a record open, surely there are more Simpsons freaks that can do the same.

I think Transformers appealed more to action fans, who were not satiated by Live Free or Die Hard (whether or not they actually saw it).

By that same toke, The Simpsons should appeal to comedy fans since it's been a while since Knocked Up hit theatres.

[JPRaup]

30-40 mil

[CaptStormy]

I picked the opposite. This movie is 10 years past due. I think between 10-20 Milllion. If the ratings were as strong as years past...I would have changed my mind. I will be in line to see it though. Will be fun to see how it does opening weekend!

[fryinpan1]

I am guessing the movie will open in the $27-30 million range.

[Shannon Nutt]

The Simpsons movie is 86-minutes long, which means theaters can show it 5 to 6 times per day. It's also getting a huge opening (probably 3 screens in most multi-plexes).

60 million plus for the first weekend is a no-brainer.

[Mordred]

I'm guessing it won't do as well and will do somewhere around $29MM. But there is a LOT of promotion going for it. I hope I'm proved wrong.My prediction is right under 30MM. I'd love for this to be a great movie that makes hundreds of millions, but I'm not sure it will happen. The Simpsons doesn't seem to have near the popularity it used to.

I've still seen every episode though so I should be there opening weekend.

[joeblow69]

I voted 20-30 million. Probably would have done better had all the ads for the movie shown something besides that moronic "spiderpig" bit.

[calhoun07]

I voted 20-30 million. Probably would have done better had all the ads for the movie shown something besides that moronic "spiderpig" bit.

Uh...the ads have shown quite a few gags. I think I've only seen the spider-pig gag only a couple times.

And to say it won't do well because of one gag you don't like is kind of short sighted. A lot of people I talk to say that's one of their favorite parts of the trailers they have seen without me even bringing it up.

[bunkaroo]

60+ easy. There are going to be a lot of repeat viewings.

[zombiezilla]

Not too many INTELLIGENT people will pay to see a movie of a show that they can watch on television for free.

FIXED!



I hope it tanks for this reason alone.

[cupcake jesus]

I hope it tanks for this reason alone.

But you can't see this movie on TV. Not yet, at least, until the DVD comes out.

Nothing really coming out this weekend, other than that Lindsay Lohan movie, which will probably tank. I think I voted $40-$50 mil.

I don't think that anyone mentioned that there is a fair bit of free movie cash out there for this movie. I got a free ticket with the Season 9 set last week. I'm pretty sure that's how 300 "made" a lot of its money.

cheers,

-the Jesus

[clemente]

I picked the opposite. This movie is 10 years past due. I think between 10-20 Milllion. If the ratings were as strong as years past...I would have changed my mind. I will be in line to see it though. Will be fun to see how it does opening weekend!


I would agree if The Simpsons was a story-line driven show where people would get tired of the story. I know plenty of people who haven't seen The Simpsons in years, but they are stoked to see the movie.

This isn't a pure "current viewer" fanbase.

[Patman]

I'm guessing it'll take in no more than $42 million this weekend.

[sauce07]

People have to realize that even though the ratings are down, that doesn't meant the show is not popular. I for one am a big simpsons fan that kinda gave up watching the new episodes on sunday nights a few years back due to the fact that i watch the show nearly every day (sometimes 2-3 times a day). I can watch whatever i want to during prime time sunday night, and catch the newer episodes 5 nights a week, along with some of the classics.
I grew up with this show, I was 6 when it first aired and now i'm 23. The show is not must see TV to talk with my friends about, but we all still watch it and even if the show is not as good as it once was we still laugh. The previews have been reminding everybody what they love in the simpsons, that will get more than enough people into the seats. The dvd box sets of each season sell well enough from what i've seen (i don't have exact numbers, but everbody i know has at least a few), so people are willing to pay for this "free" show.
The biggest problem i see going for it is the 5-10 crowd, who drag their parents to see it. The PG-13 rating may scare them, but i have a feeling that the post-opening weekend good word of mouth will change their minds. Plus it is late july, very hot out, no kids films in theaters(everybody has already see the new Harry Potter) and the simpsons is a brand that has stood by family since the beginning beside the early controversy which nobody care about anymore.
I see this thing doing about 60 mil this weekend, and up to 200 mil total. And to the guy who said 10-20 mil opening, it will do that by the east coast theaters close on friday night.

[nateman]

The Simpsons isn't just a TV show anymore, It's a brand.

[Deadpool]

I voted 30-40

I'll be there to see it...but don't think it will be that big.

[Ginwen]

I voted 30-40 million, but I'm usually completely off on this type of poll.

[grim_tales]

It'll be big, I'm sure.

[MovieMaster11]

Something 18 years in the making with such a huge following will easily do 60+

[Jaymole]

32.5

but hoping it will do much more

[ScandalUMD]

Did anyone hear when they announced that a SIMPSONS movie was coming out that it was going to be done like the cartoons from PIXAR?
I read it in USA TODAY or ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY I'm sure .
But after seeing the trailers it's just like the t.v. cartoon.

There are a ton of computer-animated flicks every year, and none of them are really like Pixar.

The Simpsons movie was done by American animators, rather than in a low-cost foreign facility from storyboards and animatics, like the show is, so the visual quality will be much smoother. It also looks like they integrated some computer effects and shots into it, and you'll see that with greater depth of field in the environments, but it will look like a very polished version of the show, rather than turning it into "Toy Story."

Incidentally, I am rooting for "Simpsons" if it is good, but I don't see this film putting up "Harry Potter" numbers. Actually, I don't see "The Simpsons" putting up "Chuck and Larry" numbers, but it's possible that the 3800 screen opening will allow a $30m opening weekend, allowing Homer to match Adam Sandler.

[misterchimpy]

With 3800 screens and generally pretty positive early reviews and a short run time, I think this will probably do in the $40-50 mm range.

[Jericho]

If you go by the wisdom of groups, the group median is around $40 million on this.

[Borst]

$53,386,125

[vwbeetlvr]

I seriously believe this movie will do over 70+. I say right around 80 +-5 million.

[auto]

Wow. I can't wait to see how much money this movie makes. Speculation is all across the board. I voted for 20-30 million.

[gotrice487]

I'm guessing it will bang in the 30-40 million range for its opening weekend

[Quake1028]

The users over at Box Office Mojo have an average prediction of $57.5 million.

[JPRaup]

It made 28 million on Friday, WOW :0

[vwbeetlvr]

I seriously believe this movie will do over 70+. I say right around 80 +-5 million.

I think i nailed it right on the head!!!!!!

1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $24.15M [$53.2M cume] SATURDAY 2 day total.


Looks like it will break 75 just like i said!!!!!!

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/8154/simpsonsnelsonhaha2wp4.jpg


ACTUAL TOTAL
$74,036,787

[Groucho]

It made 28 million on Friday, WOW :0A special message to all the doubters:

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/8154/simpsonsnelsonhaha2wp4.jpg

[mayorofsmpleton]

I was thinking high 50's opening weekend with strong legs.

Even that number surprised me. I haven't watched the show in the last 6 years, but I couldn't wait for this movie.

People also aren't taking into account that the reviews are overwhelmingly positive. 88% on rottentomatoes.com

Add to it the fact that all the best writers worked on the movie. This ain't the SIMPSONS of the past 8 years... this is like a reunion for those who missed the old days.

I personally loved the movie, and it seemed like the entire theater was buzzing before and after. This one will have great word of mouth.

29.1 according to Boxofficemojo.com

That means even if it drops to 20 on Saturday (not very likely), and 15 on Sunday it would pull mid 50's. This one's going to likely make 75+ opening weekend, and I think it will play out the rest of the summer as there isn't much competition left in terms of comedy stuff that appeals to all ages, etc.

[critterdvd]

I honestly was incredibly surprised by this movie. Thursday evening I went to dinner with friends in the same shopping center as my local theater and we tried to go see the midnight screening (this was around 11:30pm), and eventhough it was playing on 6 screens they were sold out.

Fastforward to friday morning with my parents, the 9:30am showing was probably 80/85% full. Then Friday night at 10:50pm, there were lines around the theater to see the movie. The 400+ stadium was sold out.

This movie is easily going to do 60/70 million. Atleast in my town its beating the hell out of Harry Potter on opening weekend (there were 20 people tops at the 10:50 showing of that movie opening night and you could still buy tickets to the midnight premier at midnight).

[vwbeetlvr]

1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $24.15M [$53.2M cume] SATURDAY 2 day total.


Looks like it will break 75 just like i said!!!!!!

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/8154/simpsonsnelsonhaha2wp4.jpg


I was soooooo close. I said 75-85

1 N The Simpsons Movie Fox $71,850,000

can't wait for the actuals on monday.



edit to add ACTUAL

$74,036,787 - i was closest by 1 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vwbeetlvr]

Rank* Title
(Click to view chart) Friday
7/27
(Estimates) Saturday
7/28
(Estimates) Sunday
7/29
(Estimates) Monday
7/30
1 THE SIMPSONS MOVIE
Fox

3,922 $30,000,000

-- / $7,649
$30,000,000 / 1 $23,200,000

-22.7% / $5,915
$53,200,000 / 2 $18,650,000

-19.6% / $4,755
$71,850,000 / 3
N/A

[vwbeetlvr]

Actual Total

$74,036,787

[Jericho]

I appear to have been WAY, WAY off on this. I think I'm goin gto go collect my booby prize

[Mordred]

Wow. The 10PM Fri. showing I went to probably sold out but there wasn't any kind of line and the theater was half empty 30 minutes before the movie started. Usually movies where you can walk up and buy tickets right before showtime opening weekend don't generate that kind of business.

[Rogue588]

I appear to have been WAY, WAY off on this. I think I'm goin gto go collect my booby prizeI hope those are some big boobies...

As much as I hope i'm wrong, I agree with Jericho.Glad I was wrong.