Tarnower

We're three weeks away from the Academy Award nominations. I thought I'd start this thread so everyone can take a stab at it. Here are my predictions in almost all categories...

PICTURE;
1. The Departed
2. Dreamgirls
3. Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Little Miss Sunshine
5. The Queen

ACTOR;
1. Leonardo Di Caprio (The Departed)
2. Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
3. Peter O'Toole (Venus)
4. Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
5. Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

ACTRESS;
1. Penelope Cruz (Volver)
2. Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
3. Helen Mirren (The Queen)
4. Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
5. Kate Winslet (Little Children)

SUPPORTING ACTOR;
1. Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
2. Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
3. Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
4. Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
5. Michael Sheen (The Queen)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS;
1. Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
2. Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)
3. Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
4. Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
5. Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration)

DIRECTION;
1. Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
2. Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
3. Guillermo Del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)
4. Stephen Frears (The Queen)
5. Paul Greengrass (United 93)

SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION;
1. The Departed
2. Flags of Our Fathers
3. Little Children
4. Notes on a Scandal
5. Thank You for Smoking

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY;
1. Babel
2. Letters from Iwo Jima
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. The Queen
5. Volver

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM;
1. Curse of the Golden Flower (China)
2. The Lives of Others (Germany)
3. Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
4. Volver (Spain)
5. Water (Canada)

ORIGINAL SONG;
1. I Need to Wake Up (from "An Inconvenient Truth")
2. Listen (from "Dreamgirls")
3. Love You I Do (from "Dreamgirls")
4. Never Gonna Break My Faith (from "Bobby")
5. The Song of the Heart (from "Happy Feet")

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE;
1. Deliver Us from Evil
2. An Inconvenient Truth
3. Iraq in Fragments
4. Shut Up & Sing
5. The War Tapes

CINEMATOGRAPHY;
1. Babel
2. Children of Men
3. The Departed
4. Dreamgirls
5. Letters from Iwo Jima

ART DIRECTION;
1. Children of Men
2. Dreamgirls
3. Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Marie-Antoinette
5. Pan's Labyrinth

COSTUME DESIGN;
1. Curse of the Golden Flower
2. The Devil Wears Prada
3. Dreamgirls
4. Marie-Antoinette
5. Miss Potter

ORIGINAL SCORE;
1. Babel
2. The Good German
3. Notes on a Scandal
4. The Painted Veil
5. The Queen

FILM EDITING;
1. Babel
2. The Departed
3. Dreamgirls
4. Letters from Iwo Jima
5. United 93

SOUND MIXING;
1. The Departed
2. Dreamgirls
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Letters from Iwo Jima
5. World Trade Center

VISUAL EFFECTS;
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. X-Men: The Last Stand

MAKEUP;
1. Apocalypto
2. Pan's Labyrinth
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

SOUND EFFECTS EDITING;
1. Letters from Iwo Jima
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
3. Superman Returns

ANIMATED FEATURE;
1. Cars
2. Flushed Away
3. Happy Feet
4. Monster House
5. Over the Hedge

***************
My counting has "Dreamgirls" leading the pack with 10 nods. Followed by "The Departed" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" with 8 each. "The Queen" follows with 6. "Babel" tallies 5. With 4 each are "Notes on a Scandal" and "Pan's Labyrinth."

chris_sc77

I think Babel will get a best picture nomination before Little Miss Sunshine...
at least I hope it does

Daytripper

No way. "Sunshine" faired better than "Babel" on every level. Reviews, box-office, year end 10 Best Lists.

And great list of predictions!

Doughboy

United 93 should get a Best Picture nod. And I'd love to see Sasha Baron Cohen get a Best Actor nod for Borat. The fact that he tricked a bunch of people into thinking he was really from Kazakhstan to the point that they're all now suing him has to count for something.

hardercore

8th Jan. EDIT: I decided to grow some balls and actually post some nominations predictions. See my post somewhere below

Joe Molotov

I know it kind of a long shot, but I'd like to see Robert Altman at least get a posthumous nomination for Best Director. I thought The Prairie Home Companion was a really good movie.

Mr. Cinema

Another solid year for movies. Nice to see back-to-back years featuring so many good movies. Once again, tons of great Best Actor performances. Right now, I think The Departed is the front runner with Scorsese in the bag for Director.

NOMINEES

PICTURE
-Babel
-The Departed
-Dreamgirls
-Little Miss Sunshine
-The Queen

in contention: Children of Men

DIRECTOR
-Martin Scorsese, The Departed
-Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
-Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
-Stephen Frears, The Queen
-Paul Greengrass, United 93

in contention: Alejandro González Ińárritu (Babel), Guillermo Del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)

ACTOR
-Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
-Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
-Peter O'Toole, Venus
-Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
-Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

in contention: Sasha Baron Cohen (Borat), Matt Damon (The Departed)

ACTRESS
-Penelope Cruz, Volver
-Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
-Helen Mirren, The Queen
-Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
-Kate Winslet, Little Children

in contention: no one

SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
-Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
-Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
-Jack Nicholson, The Departed
-Mark Wahlberg,The Departed

in contention: Djimon Honsou (Blood Diamond), Brad Pitt (Babel)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-Adriana Barraza, Babel
-Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
-Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
-Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
-Emily Blunt, Devil Wears Prada

SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
-Babel
-Letters from Iwo Jima
-Little Miss Sunshine
-The Queen
-United 93

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
-Children of Men
-The Departed
-Dreamgirls
-Little Children
-Notes on a Scandal

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
-Curse of the Golden Flower
-The Lives of Others
-Pan's Labyrinth
-Volver
-Water

ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Apocalypto
Babel
Children of Men
The Good Shepherd
The Illusionist

ART DIRECTION
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flag's of Our Fathers
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

EDITING
Babel
Casino Royale
The Departed
Dreamgirls
United 93

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Fountain
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

COSTUME DESIGN
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Marie Antoinette
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

MAKEUP
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

SOUND MIXING
Casino Royale
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

SOUND EDITING
Casino Royale
Flags of Our Fathers
Superman Returns

ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The Departed
The Fountain
Nomad
The Queen

Shannon Nutt

Plus think how much fun the Red Carpet would be this year. He's like Roberto Benigni on crack.

hardercore

I don't claim to be an expert on all the catergories so I'll post five nominees (including my pick for winner) for the catergories I feel could easily have an internet argument over and still hold my ground, and just likely winners for the other ones. The nominees are ordered from most likely to least likely to win, in my opinion.

Best Picture - "The Departed"
"United 93"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"

Best Director - Martin Scorsese, for "The Departed"
Paul Greengrass, for "United 93"
Clint Eastwood, for "Letters From Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, for "The Queen"
Bill Condon, for "Dreamgirls"

Best Actor - Forest Whitaker, for "The Last King of Scotland"
Peter O'Toole, for "Venus"
Leonardo DiCaprio, for "Blood Diamond"
Ken Watanabe, for "Letters From Iwo Jima"
Will Smith, for "The Pursuit of Happyness"

Best Actress - Helen Mirren, for "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, for "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, for "Little Children"
Penelope Cruz, for "Volver"
Judi Dench, for "Notes on a Scandal"

Best Supporting Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio, for "The Departed"
Eddie Murphy, for "Dreamgirls"
Michael Sheen, for "The Queen"
Alan Arkin, for "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jack Nicholson, for "The Departed"

Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson, for "Dreamgirls"
Cate Blanchett, for "Notes on a Scandal"
Rinko Kikuchi, for "Babel"
Emily Blunt, for "The Devil Wears Prada"
Abigail Breslin, for "Little Miss Sunshine"

Best Original Screenplay - Peter Morgan, for "The Queen"
"Babel"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Pan's Labyrinth"

Best Adapted Screenplay - William Monahan, for "The Departed"
"Little Children"
"Thank You For Smoking"
"Children Of Men"
"Notes On A Scandal"

Best Foreign Film - "Pan's Labyrinth"

Best Animated Feature - "Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"

Best Documentary Feature - "An Inconvenient Truth"

Best Cinematography - "Children of Men"
"The Departed"
"The Queen"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Babel"

Best Film Editing - "The Departed"
"Babel"
"United 93"
"Children Of Men"
"Dreamgirls"

Best Original Song - "Listen", from "Dreamgirls"

Best Original Score - Gustavo Santaolalla, for "Babel"

Best Art Direction - "Dreamgirls"

Best Makeup - "The Queen"

Best Costume Design - "Dreamgirls"

Best Visual Effects - "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

Best Sound - "Dreamgirls"

So the big winners of the night look (predictably) to be "Dreamgirls" (5 wins), "The Departed" (5 wins), and "The Queen" (3 wins)

Jericho

Some pretty good lists. Oviously some of the noms will be different, but I think overall it'll be pretty sccurate. So I see people are predicting Scorsese will win again, same as every year Maybe he actually will...

SpringsGal

I hope Maggie Gyllenhal gets a nomination for SherryBaby. That is a performance that stands out for me from last year.

dvd_luver

I think the only real LOCK at the Oscars this year is for Best Documentary Feature, An Inconvenient Truth. It's a LOCK to get nominated and win. Otherwise, I think it's possible there may be lots of surprises in store for us. For best picture nominations, I'd say The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine and Dreamgirls are sure things in that category for nods. I don't know about The Queen, she is probably a LOCK to win best actress, so United 93 or Babel may sneak in there.

Giles

sadly, the movie hardly saw any sort wide release, it didn't have a DC engagment. (but of course, DC has been floundering as a top tier film market for indie/smaller studio film distribution for quite sometime now).

hardercore

Agreed. I never felt the Best Picture vibe from "The Queen", despite how well it was made and how terrific the two lead performances were. You said "Babel" or "United 93", and I opted to go for "United 93" as it was by far the better reviewed of the two and has lead in the Best Picture precursor prizes (8 from various groups to date compared to "The Departed" with 6). I still think, though, that with the popularity of "The Departed", it's solid second place in the precursors, the large ensemble cast that the Actors sector of the Academy can recognise, and the fact that the critics raved about it (even if not as much as "United 93"), the winner on the night will be "The Departed".

Daytripper

Giles, it did play here (in DC). Can't remember the theater. Either E Street or maybe Bethesda (both Landmark theaters). But I remember the ad in the paper. It was gone though in two weeks.

Arpeggi

Children of Men should be nominated for Best Picture.

asdf

Does anyone know when they will announce nominations?

doc·u·men·ta·ry (dŏk'yə-měn'tə-rē)
adj.
1. Presenting facts objectively without editorializing or inserting fictional matter, as in a book or film.

if "An Inconvenient Truth" doesn't win, it will be a crime.

dick_grayson

since all the reviews went so well, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sacha Baron Cohen in the mix. yes, I would.

dvd_luver

I'd be stunned! Also, I know some people out there despise Eddie Murphy sort of, but I will be rooting for him to get nominated and win Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls. I'd also like to see Leonardo Dicaprio win best actor for The Departed, and Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls. As well as Sacha Baron Cohen getting a nomination for Best Actor for Borat and winning, Nice eh! .

dvd_luver

I will make my predictions for Best Picture nods:

1) The Departed
2) Little Miss Sunshine
3) Dreamgirls
4) United 93
5) Children Of Men

I think the best picture winner will be either The Departed or Little Miss Sunshine

clemente

I predict the studios who spend the most money in the next few weeks will get nominations for their respective films.

I loved Little Miss Sunshine, but I doubt it'll get a Best Picture nod - it'll probably represent with a Screenplay nod.

asdf

If anybody didn't know, I just read it on the official site, Jan 23rd they announce the nominees, Feb 25th is the ceremony.

Ugh, I just noticed that Ellen DeGeneres is hosting. I can't express enough how UNfunny she is. Where is Billy Crystal when you need him...

Daytripper

Huh!? Ellen is best doing hosting gigs. Her Emmy hosting in 2001 was so great, she got a standing ovation. Billy Crystal's schtick was also great on the Oscars the first two times. After that I felt it was tired. My other choices would be Steve Martin again or maybe Jerry Seinfeld.

majorjoe23

Ever since Hoop Dreams and Crumb were not even nominated, I consider nothing to be a lock for Best Documentary.

Jericho

I'm sure there are those out there with more knowledge than myself, but didn't DiCaprio get dominated for best actor in Blood Diamond and best supporting actor for The Departed? If so, wouldn't those be the categroies he submited in for the Oscars?