I mean to stay vague when I state that there have been multiple indications that Nintendo aims to launch Wii in the October time frame. Which would, of course, put the machine well ahead of the expected mid-November debut and likewise well ahead of Sony's looming PlayStation 3 console.

Sleuthing readers have determined that October 2 is a very likely candidate for Wii to launch -- this, based on the aforementioned press release, which has a suspicious opening on said date. Let's go with that for a minute and consider why this might make sense and why it might not.

Launching Wii on October 2 makes sense for several reasons.

First, there's the element of surprise. I don't think anybody really expects Nintendo to break from tradition and debut a new system a full month and a half ahead of the historic time frame. The Big N could therefore use these expectations to its advantage, sneaking out its new platform early. Sony has enough problems already with the high-priced Blu-ray drives and the low yields of its Cell processor; a surprise release of Wii could go a long way against a company which is likely fiscally unable to quickly mount a counter.

Nintendo could pull an Apple, which has rarely, if ever been done in the videogame console business. What I mean by this is to hold an event and then release a spotlighted product within a week of said event. Apple does this at Macworld all the time. Nintendo could theoretically do it at the Tokyo Game Show.

I'm leaving the realm of rumor when I state that Nintendo is scheduled to hold a Wii related event in September. Furthermore, Iwata himself has said that the price and release date of the machine would likely come in September. Now, the Tokyo Game Show happens to fall in late September. If the hardware is ready in bulk, what is to stop the Big N from announcing price and release date on or around TGS and then shipping everything a week later?

Retailers would love it. Launching Wii in October would effectively kick off the holiday buying season early, a prospect that retailers could rally behind. In contrast to the usual release-everything-in-November mentality, Nintendo and backers could ship Wii with, say, 5-10 games and deliver an additional 10-15 through October and November. Good news for the Big N, which will undoubtedly have big guns like Metroid and Zelda at launch. Good news for third parties like EA and Ubi, both of whom will probably have Madden and Red Steel rearing to go for launch, too.

Meanwhile, Nintendo and third parties could trickle out other big games -- WarioWare, Trauma Center, Rayman -- in October and November, which offers two immediate benefits. First, some third party titles that may have gone overlooked now have a chance. Given the choice between Zelda, Metroid and anything else, your average Nintendo fan is going with the established icons. That's just the way it is. But perhaps after two weeks have passed, they'll have room for some third party goodies, too. And second, a steady release of games both offers potential buyers continued incentive to pick up a Wi and also creates the perception that the console has a lot of continued support, not just one big bang.

There are also reasons why it doesn't make sense.

I don't think hardware is the problem. Wii is essentially current generation horsepower shrunk to fit inside a tiny console. The controller has been working for months. And some developers have finished kits. Hitting it in bulk might be a hurdle, but Nintendo seems better prepared for this challenge than any competitor. Still, software could be problematic. Games like Excite Truck and Zelda should have no trouble launching in early October, but third parties may have more difficulties. And although it could actually prove fiscally irresponsible to launch their games against Nintendo's powerhouses, some third parties see the word 'launch' and think that if they hit the window, they've got it made; thus, if they can't make it because Nintendo launches too early, there could be some backlash.

Would there be adequate time for public relations and marketing campaigns? Difficult to say. Apple is a Mac monopoly, if that makes sense. It is the only company creating Apple computers, as opposed to PCs, which can be manufactured by anybody. It is therefore the Field of Dreams for Macs, meaning that if Jobs builds it, they will come. It can sell iPods and Macs a week after announcing everything with a commercial and a smile. But can Nintendo do the same? It's never been done by a videogame giant. On top of everything else, Apple runs its own retail outlets and therefore has the unique ability to ship product without spoiling the surprise. Can Nintendo do the same when dealing with outside retailers who have nothing to gain in keeping the secret?

Despite these potential issues, I think it can be done and to be perfectly honest, I'd prefer it. Hitting the October window would be unexpected and original, two words that can simultaneously be used to describe the Wii console. I want to see Nintendo make the first move.

What do you think? Let's get a discussion going on the blog.