Box Office 6-2-4: Break-Up HUGE, X-Men falls nearly 80%!!

[Sierra Disc]

Holy moses. Early numbers up at www.showbizdata.com, and Break-Up is looking to open at $40 million or so -- and X-Men has plummeted 77%! Ye gods. I liked X3 a lot myself, but guess the word of mouth is el stinko. Oh well. Other people's opinions won't keep me from liking it or buying the DVD....

Friday estimates

1. BREAK-UP, THE UNIVERSAL 3,067 15,810,000 5,155 n/a 15,810,000
2. X-MEN: THE LAST STAND 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,714 10,150,000 2,733 -77% 151,471,000
3. OVER THE HEDGE PARAMOUNT 3,993 5,380,000 1,347 -29% 97,091,000
4. DA VINCI CODE SONY 3,757 5,223,000 1,390 -49% 158,576,000
5. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3 - MI3 PARAMOUNT 2,667 1,200,000 450 -39% 119,181,000
6. POSEIDON WARNER BROS. 2,720 962,000 354 -42% 49,234,000
7. RV SONY 2,181 862,000 395 -25% 59,368,000
8. SEE NO EVIL LIONS GATE 1,270 610,000 480 -20% 10,971,000
9. INCONVENIENT TRUTH, AN PARAMOUNT 77 412,000 5,351 400% 966,118
10. JUST MY LUCK 20TH CENTURY FOX 958 245,000 256 -58% 14,992,000

[Terrell]

Damn! I expected a 60% dropoff, but nothing approaching that kind of fall. The fact that last weekend was a holiday and it making 107 million dollars is probably why the dropoff was so huge. I never expected it to make what it did in it's first weekend. So now it's looking at a 30-35 million dollar second weekend take.

[scott1598]

i always think showbiz estimate #'s are usually under quite a bit. i like boxofficemojo's better. don't know which is the most accurate though, but seems bom is usually spot on as opposed to showbiz.

[onebyone]

I never would have guessed The Break Up would open that well. I had it pinned to open at ummm about half that. *Hangs head in shame** I know folks like Vince Vaughn, but the trailer for the movie looks just so bad.

I heard a lot of bad word of mouth on X-Men 3 this week. It's not too surprising it dropped a lot, although the amount it dropped kind of shocks me. That's like The Hulk.

[Deftones]

As if it wasn't expected X-men was mostly front loaded. It'll surpass $225 millon and fade away. Still, a great B.O. for it, considering most weren't expecting too much from it.

[DRG]

I think the weekend-to-weekend dropoff for X3 won't be anywhere near as drastic as the Friday-to-Friday dropoff. It's still a sizable dropoff (likely 65-70%) but it is also inflated by the fact it was Memorial Day weekend and thus the Sunday for last week's 3-day total was higher than a normal Sunday would be.

Over the Hedge should pull in 18-20 mil, a nice little chuck of change before it gets run over by Cars next week.

Al Gore cracks the top ten.

[deadlax]

If X3 drops from friday to saturday it's going to have a hard time making any more than 200M.

[maingon]

yeah but its a 77% drop from over a hundred million, I didnt think it would do 50 million again in its second weekend, it should do 30-35 million in its second weekend, still not bad

[slabinskia]

WOW,do I look like a fool after saying x-3 has a shot at 300m.I didn't think it would take that much of a hit.Over the Hedge is still bringing in decent numbers.What are the odds of OTH ending up with more money than MI3 ?

[SunMonkey]

I know I haven't recommended anyone see X3 on the big screen. I wouldn't have seen it myself if I didn't have free movie tickets for it.

I am surprised about The Break Up. Maybe the bogo offer helped.

[Mr. Cinema]

Box Office Mojo has The Break Up's Friday total with $13.7 million. I'm gonna believe that number. I won't be surprised if it drops today. I don't think word-of-mouth is going to be too good.

A 70% drop is terrible, no matter how much you make the first weekend. 70% = shitty word-of-mouth.

Even The Matrix Reloaded, which is hated by many (it's my favorite of the 3), had a similar start. It grossed $134 million during its 5 day release. During its second weekend, it dropped 59.8%, which is what probably most thought X3 would do, but 70% is huge.

[maingon]

I think x-men will do better today and tomorrow then the breakup

[Deftones]

If X3 drops from friday to saturday it's going to have a hard time making any more than 200M.

Look at it's weekday numbers. If it continues to half of what it did on a day to day basis, it'll easily surpass $200 million.

[Terrell]

A 70% drop is terrible, no matter how much you make the first weekend. 70% = shitty word-of-mouth.

Well, you'd have to make the same argument about the first two films as well. It's not shitty word of mouth. All of the X-Men films have been heavily front-loaded. All of them had sizeable, if not big, drops in their second weekend. Nearly every summer film is front-loaded. It's just the nature of the beast. X3 will bank the most coin of the three. But it was unrealistic to expect it to make more than 250 million.

[Mr. Cinema]

After making $122 million during its first 4 days, making a final projection of $250 million total wouldn't be out of the ordinary. That's only asking the film to double its opening gross.

X2 had a 53% drop during its second week. Matrix Reloaded had a near 60% drop, but it still finished with $281 million here. X3 won't get close to that now after this weekend is done.

[Jackskeleton]

I think x-men will do better today and tomorrow then the breakup


Did it really have a strong saturday last week? It was a fairly decent drop from friday to saturday. I expect much the same.

[PopcornTreeCt]

Considering how huge the opening was X3 I doubt studio analysts are too worried about how much it drops off. After tomorrow's numbers it will have grossed more than the first X-Men movie.

[DRG]

Did it really have a strong saturday last week? It was a fairly decent drop from friday to saturday. I expect much the same.

Friday-to-Saturday drops are quite common in the first weekends (especially with sequels), but rare in second weekends and beyond.

[Terrell]

X2 had a 53% drop during its second week. Matrix Reloaded had a near 60% drop, but it still finished with $281 million here. X3 won't get close to that now after this weekend is done.

I don't know what Matrix has to do with this. Different film, different circumstances. It doesn't matter how the film makes it's money, as long as it makes it. This film will end up making more than the first two. But even with the huge opening, I expected a big dropoff and a final tally under 250 million dollars. I just don't think you can blame the dropoff on shitty word of mouth. If that were the case, you could blame practically every summer film with a big dropoff on shitty word of mouth. It had a big dropoff because it made in excess of 100 million dollars on it's first weekend, and because it's the typical summer event film.

[clemente]

People aren't waiting to go to the movies anymore, almost all big movies are front loaded now. It's most that likely that the majority of the audience who wanted to see X3 did so last weekend. It shouldn't still finish the weekend with about $25-30 million which will bring it that much closer to matching the take of X2.

This is typical sequel behavior.

[tvpuff]

I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, defending x3's numbers. An 80% drop is not typical or good for any film; summer blockbuster, sequel or otherwise. The Matrix Reloaded comparison is logical as it is another case of a sequel where the critical response was fairly mixed, audience word of mouth has been overwhelmingly negative, and the opening weekend box office was huge. I'm not saying the movie hasn't made huge bank, which it has. The drop is huge though, and just looking at other movies with that kind of opening box office performance, is most likely based on terrible word of mouth.

[Matthew Chmiel]

80%? Did you not pass statistics in high school? If the film barely makes $30 million this weekend, it's a drop of nearly 70%, not 80%. ;)

Still, 70% is a huge fucking drop regardless of any film.

[Suprmallet]

I don't know what Matrix has to do with this. Different film, different circumstances. It doesn't matter how the film makes it's money, as long as it makes it. This film will end up making more than the first two. But even with the huge opening, I expected a big dropoff and a final tally under 250 million dollars. I just don't think you can blame the dropoff on shitty word of mouth. If that were the case, you could blame practically every summer film with a big dropoff on shitty word of mouth. It had a big dropoff because it made in excess of 100 million dollars on it's first weekend, and because it's the typical summer event film.

I don't know what planet you live on, but just because you liked X3, doesn't mean it hasn't gotten terrible word of mouth. I personally have stopped at least a dozen people were seeing it, just by how vehemently I spoke out against it. This is a huge drop and the reason it's so huge is because of bad word of mouth. Obviously some of it is because it was front-loaded, but the drop wouldn't be as big as it would without the word of mouth.

[QuikSilver]

Wow that sure is a big drop for X3. Word of mouth is definitely bad.

[TheAllPurposeNothing]

Big suprise to me are the numbers for an Inconvenient Truth. Not Farenheit 9-11 numbers but for a film playing in only 77 theatres, not too shabby.

[PJsig08]

Good, X3 is terrible, the word-of-mouth does not lie.

[Peep]

80%? Did you not pass statistics in high school? If the film barely makes $30 million this weekend, it's a drop of nearly 70%, not 80%.

www.showbizdata.com had the drop-off at 77%. Saying "nearly 70%" make it sound like the drop-off was in the high 60's. IMO, saying "80%" is a lot closer to 77% than saying "nearly 70%".

Either way, who'd have thought that "Breaking Up" would open so big? I guess every movie gets at least one good weekend this year (except "Poseidon" :)) .

[Mr. Cinema]

Saturday numbers from Showbizdata:

1. BREAK-UP, THE UNIVERSAL 3,067 15,010,000 4,894 n/a 30,820,000
2. X-MEN: THE LAST STAND 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,714 14,201,000 3,824 -56% 165,672,000
3. OVER THE HEDGE PARAMOUNT 3,993 8,611,000 2,157 -17% 105,702,000
4. DA VINCI CODE SONY 3,757 7,823,000 2,082 -37% 166,399,000
5. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3 - MI3 PARAMOUNT 2,667 1,965,000 737 -22% 121,146,000
6. POSEIDON WARNER BROS. 2,720 1,490,000 548 -27% 50,724,000
7. RV SONY 2,181 1,392,000 638 -14% 60,760,000
8. SEE NO EVIL LIONS GATE 1,270 834,000 657 -13% 11,805,000
9. INCONVENIENT TRUTH, AN PARAMOUNT 77 534,000 6,935 424% 1,500,118
10. JUST MY LUCK 20TH CENTURY FOX 958 332,000 347 -50% 15,324,000

[Joe Molotov]

Is BOM correct on their budget estimate of X3? Did it seriously cost $210 Million!? Wouldn't that make it about the biggest budgeted movie ever, costing more than X1 & X2 combined? That's insane.

[Peep]

If you factor in the movie wasted on previous failed attempts to get the movie made (i.e. paying Nick Cage 20 million for nothing) "Superman Returns" will easily top that - not including marketing.

[deadlax]

Weekend Estimates from BoxOfficeMojo

1 N The Break-Up Uni. $38,053,000 $38,053,000
2 1 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox $34,350,000 -66.6% $175,681,000
3 3 Over the Hedge DW $20,647,000 -23.7% $112,357,000
4 2 The Da Vinci Code Sony $19,300,000 -43.3% 3 $172,656,000
5 4 Mission: Impossible III Par. $4,679,000 -33.2% $122,664,000 $150
6 5 Poseidon WB $3,411,000 -39.6% $51,679,000 $160
7 6 RV Sony $3,300,000 -20.8% $61,806,000 $50
8 7 See No Evil Lions $2,000,000 -25.5% $12,364,000 $8
9 22 An Inconvenient Truth ParC $1,332,000 $1,912,000
10 8 Just My Luck Fox $825,000 -58.3% $15,571,000

$215M finish for X3 if it drops 50% next week. If it drops 2/3 again it's looking more like $205M

[maingon]

66 percent drop isnt as bad as people were saying, especially when you consider how much it made on opening weekend,

[Terrell]

Yeah, a 66% drop is close to what I was expecting. I honestly expected a 60% drop. If that estimate holds up, the film has already made 175 million dollars domestically. Not bad at all.

However, I don't believe for a second that this film cost 210 million dollars. That's unbelievable, especially when that's more than the first two films combined.

[sabre]

the drop off x-men last stand is not surprising. open huge fall quickly. still very good box office performance. i can't believe the negativity towards this movie though. is it flawed, yes. would i liked to seen it handled a different way, yes. but it is still an entertaining movie. i don't read the comic so i may not understand all the gripes. but as a batman fan i had to sit through batman and robin and as superman fan i had to sit through superman 3 and 4. x3 is hundred times better than those three movies.

[wmansir]

I think X3's first Friday included midnight shows, so it already started 20% in the hole for that day. Factor that in and it's still a 60% drop, but not as bad as it looks.

[Matthew Chmiel]

If X3 keeps on dropping 66% each weekend, it barely has a chance of making $200 million. Let alone $205-215 million as others have been saying.

The good (or sad) news is that X2's drops intially became bigger as each weekend went on. Going from 53% to 56% in the second and third weekends. The fourth weekend had a lower drop (40%), but began to progress again as the weekends went on.

However, X2 didn't have much direct competition in 2003 besides The Matrix Reloaded. Nobody expected The Break Up to do a near $40 million this weekend (except me as I knew it would do Wedding Crashers-esque numbers), but X3 has to go against PIXAR's latest outing to go against next week as well.

I expect another huge drop coming X3's way and one as well for The Break Up.

[Mr. Cinema]

After only 17 days in release, The Da Vinci Code's worldwide number is $581 million.

[Deftones]

If X3 keeps on dropping 66% each weekend, it barely has a chance of making $200 million. Let alone $205-215 million as others have been saying.

The good (or sad) news is that X2's drops intially became bigger as each weekend went on. Going from 53% to 56% in the second and third weekends. The fourth weekend had a lower drop (40%), but began to progress again as the weekends went on.

However, X2 didn't have much direct competition in 2003 besides The Matrix Reloaded. Nobody expected The Break Up to do a near $40 million this weekend (except me as I knew it would do Wedding Crashers-esque numbers), but X3 has to go against PIXAR's latest outing to go against next week as well.

I expect another huge drop coming X3's way and one as well for The Break Up.

Are you crazy? Boxofficemojo has it at a shade over $14 million for saturday and about $10 million for Sunday. That means it's already at $175 million. Even if it does half of the bo next weekend as it did this weekend (which is unlikely), it'll easily surpass $200 million.

[Patman]

Cars opens next Friday, and it's going to soak up a ton of screens, so X3 is going to lose some of those screens (plus The Omen remake will also take away some screens as well).

[Dr. DVD]

Wonder what drew so many people to The Break-Up after all the terrible reviews? Then again, X3 got some pretty crappy ones as well, and it opened huge. I wonder if the Break-Up would be having those kind of numbers if it were rated R?

[The Bus]

Again... I don't know what universe you people bashing "The Break Up" are in. I realize that it has a low RT rating. But when I saw "Inside Man" and that trailer played the audience was cracking up. It didn't have a bad trailer.

I'm surprised RV is still doing well.

[raven56706]

See No evil is just making WWE richer...... success so far....

X3 drop isnt surprising and it should break the $200 million mark next week.... not to mention school isnt off yet...

[Deftones]

X3 drop isnt surprising and it should break the $200 million mark next week.... not to mention school isnt off yet...

Depends on where you live. School has been out for more than 2 weeks here in AZ. :)

[marty888]

What - nobody excited that </i>Poseidon</i> finally broke $50M? -wink-

[Dr. DVD]

If word of mouth here is an accurate guage of the general populace, The Break-Up will have a huge drop next weekend.

[Daytripper]

Weekend Estimates from BoxOfficeMojo

1 N The Break-Up Uni. $38,053,000 $38,053,000
2 1 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox $34,350,000 -66.6% $175,681,000
3 3 Over the Hedge DW $20,647,000 -23.7% $112,357,000
4 2 The Da Vinci Code Sony $19,300,000 -43.3% 3 $172,656,000
5 4 Mission: Impossible III Par. $4,679,000 -33.2% $122,664,000 $150
6 5 Poseidon WB $3,411,000 -39.6% $51,679,000 $160
7 6 RV Sony $3,300,000 -20.8% $61,806,000 $50
8 7 See No Evil Lions $2,000,000 -25.5% $12,364,000 $8
9 22 An Inconvenient Truth ParC $1,332,000 $1,912,000
10 8 Just My Luck Fox $825,000 -58.3% $15,571,000

$215M finish for X3 if it drops 50% next week. If it drops 2/3 again it's looking more like $205M


Well, looks like "The Break-Up" was not so huge after all. And neither was the drop for "X-Men 3". "The Break-Up" also has a lot of terrible word of mouth. I had so many friends see it on Friday and Saturday and none of them liked it. I was going to go today. Now, gonna wait to rent it. "X-Men 3" will probably pull in another 10M Monday-Thurs this week. And even it only makes 15M next weekend, that would put it at $200 million.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Are you crazy? Boxofficemojo has it at a shade over $14 million for saturday and about $10 million for Sunday. That means it's already at $175 million. Even if it does half of the bo next weekend as it did this weekend (which is unlikely), it'll easily surpass $200 million.
For those of us who took high school math, 66% drop equals only $11 million next weekend. This would throw the total domestic gross to $190 million give or take after weekday grosses included. Another 66% drop the weekend after would throw in around $4-5 million. I am sure it'll hit $200 million, but not much more than that. The target audience has pretty much seen the film and the piss-poor word of mouth won't give-in return business.

People will be flocking to Cars on Friday and then the weekend after will be divided up for teenagers (Fast and the Furious 3) and the ladies (The Lake House).

[Daytripper]

For those of us who took high school math, 66% drop equals only $11 million next weekend. This would throw the total domestic gross to $190 million give or take after weekday grosses included. Another 66% drop the weekend after would throw in around $4-5 million. I am sure it'll hit $200 million, but not much more than that. The target audience has pretty much seen the film and the piss-poor word of mouth won't give-in return business.

People will be flocking to Cars on Friday and then the weekend after will be divided up for teenagers (Fast and the Furious 3) and the ladies (The Lake House).


Ladies, please don't. I beg you. God that movie looks horrible. And if I see that commercial one more time (with that wussy Keane song playing no less).

Matthew, why do you think "X-Men 3" is going to drop another 66% next weekend? Just curious.

[Deftones]

For those of us who took high school math, 66% drop equals only $11 million next weekend. This would throw the total domestic gross to $190 million give or take after weekday grosses included. Another 66% drop the weekend after would throw in around $4-5 million. I am sure it'll hit $200 million, but not much more than that. The target audience has pretty much seen the film and the piss-poor word of mouth won't give-in return business.

People will be flocking to Cars on Friday and then the weekend after will be divided up for teenagers (Fast and the Furious 3) and the ladies (The Lake House).

Wow, condescending much? No wonder people hate you around here. :lol:

I love how you backpedal. First you say it won't get to $200 million in an earlier post, now you are saying it might not make much more than that.

Let's see, I don't expect X-Men to be pulling in 5 million a day like it was during the week, but I doubt it'll drop below a million a day during the weekdays. So, tha's an additional $5 miillion this week. Then, it'll make at least another $15 million on the weekend. Putting it just shy of $200 million. If you honestly think it's not going to surpass that mark, if not more, you are absolutely off your rocker.

I don't doubt it won't drop over the next few weeks, but if you honestly think it will just fall off the map, you need to read up on the box office, son.

[Deftones]

Matthew, why do you think "X-Men 3" is going to drop another 66% next weekend? Just curious.

Well, he is a box office genius. I mean, check his predictions in here: http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=464130, more specifically, his post here: http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showpost.php?p=6971200&postcount=11 with all his insightful predictions.

[clemente]

The X3 blood feud is spreading to every goddamn thread.

[Deftones]

The X3 blood feud is spreading to every goddamn thread.

To be fair, if he hadn't included the quip about taking high school math, I probably wouldn't have even wasted my time responding to his drivel.

[Terrell]

Let's see, I don't expect X-Men to be pulling in 5 million a day like it was during the week, but I doubt it'll drop below a million a day during the weekdays. So, tha's an additional $5 miillion this week. Then, it'll make at least another $15 million on the weekend. Putting it just shy of $200 million. If you honestly think it's not going to surpass that mark, if not more, you are absolutely off your rocker.

Well said. This film will easily surpass 200 million. I predict a final tally of 215-220 million dollars at least, easily putting it on pace with X2. It will probably surpass X2.

the piss-poor word of mouth won't give-in return business.

How do you know what the word of mouth is on X3 is? Have you polled everyone that's seen it?

Tokyo Drift, or whatever that idiotic film is called, will probably do no better than 100-110 million, especially since neither of the first two films even managed 150 million.

[Mr. Cinema]

So is word of mouth good if a movie drops 66% of its business during the second weekend?

I'm gonna use my Matrix Reloaded comparison again. Since it's also a sequel that had a mega huge opening based on hype and was not generally well liked either.

During its second weekend, Reloaded dropped about 59% with $36 mil. The #1 movie that weekend was the debut of Bruce Almighty with about $68 million. During the third weekend, Reloaded dropped an almost identical 57% with $15 mil. The #1 movie that weekend was the debut of a Pixar movie named Finding Nemo with $70 million.

So, I think the chances of it dropping over 60% again are very high since next weekend will offer the debut of another Pixar movie called Cars.

[Deftones]

Word of mouth isn't the only thing that accounts for viewership. Granted, it's definately a part of it, but many movies with poor word of mouth did well. And plenty of movies with glowing word of mouth did horrible.

[Daytripper]

So is word of mouth good if a movie drops 66% of its business?


Not sure how to answer this. Are we talking about a movie that made 102M the first weekend, or 5M?

[Mr. Cinema]

Not sure how to answer this. Are we talking about a movie that made 102M the first weekend, or 5M?
Spider-Man earned $114 during its first 3-day weekend and only dropped about 38% during its second weekend. That's probably due to good word of mouth.

X3 opens to $102 million during its first 3-day weekend and drops 66% during its second weekend. Bad word of mouth possibly?

[Deftones]

Maybe, but I'd also say Spiderman is a premium, top tier franchise while X-men is probably top 2nd tier franchise. The appeal is a bit different. My grandma might like seeing Spiderman because she can follow, whereas she wouldn't have a clue as to what is going on in X-men.

[Jackskeleton]

Word of mouth isn't the only thing that accounts for viewership. Granted, it's definately a part of it, but many movies with poor word of mouth did well. And plenty of movies with glowing word of mouth did horrible.


depends what we count as "word of mouth". If it's the critics and bad reviews for any film then it's something different and really no baring on the box office take ins. When it's the actual folks who buy tickets and word of mouth spreads then it does have some play into it.

[Deftones]

depends what we count as "word of mouth". If it's the critics and bad reviews for any film then it's something different and really no baring on the box office take ins. When it's the actual folks who buy tickets and word of mouth spreads then it does have some play into it.

Which is why I said "part of it", Javier. :)

[Daytripper]

Spider-Man earned $114 during its first 3-day weekend and only dropped about 38% during its second weekend. That's probably due to good word of mouth.

X3 opens to $102 million during its first 3-day weekend and drops 66% during its second weekend. Bad word of mouth possibly?

Totally agree with Deftones. "Spiderman" was a 400M grossing movie. The "X-Men" franchise is half that. (#1 : in the $150M neighborhood, #2 : around $200M) So.......?

[Deftones]

Well, I think he was trying to point out that it made that $400 million because of the good word of mouth. I am countering that while that is likely the case, it should also be taken into consideration that X-men has less broad appeal to the general public, and Marvel's premiere franchise. I'd be willing to bet it was a combination of both.

[Jackskeleton]

X-men has less general appeal to the masses than Spider-man? I would argue that they both have as much general awareness as each other.

Spider-man was better welcomed and spider-man had a lot less mixed stance as X-men does. It seems like it's split down the middle. Those who either love it or those who just hated it. Spider-man with those who loved it or at the very least enjoyed it.

While X3 wasn't my favorite film, I realize it's still going to make around $225-$230 with ease.

Bad word of mouth by those who didn't like it does take some effect on it making a lot more.

[Jericho]

Considering most "fanboy" movies tend to be heavily front loaded and most big budget "event" movies tend to be heavily front loaded, a heavily front loaded X-Men 3 really doesn't tell me anything conclusively about word of mouth.

In fact, if I was to look at word of mouth by actually you know, seeing what people said about the film (instead of drawing random conclusions based on a number while ignoring multiple other factors), the word of mouth seems slightly positive on the whole. So I don't get the logic that bad word of mouth is killing X-Men's box office.

[Deftones]

Well, I guess we just agree to disagree. Like I said, I still believe more casual fans will go see Spiderman, whereas only comic fans and sci-fi fans are inclined to see stuff like X-men.

[Daytripper]

Well, I think he was trying to point out that it made that $400 million because of the good word of mouth. I am countering that while that is likely the case, it should also be taken into consideration that X-men has less broad appeal to the general public, and Marvel's premiere franchise. I'd be willing to bet it was a combination of both.


For what it's worth, I knew what you meant. And still agree with you.

[Lateralus]

I just think it's funny that RV is going to make more money than Poseidon.

[Patman]

Well, RV was more entertaining than Poseidon, so justice would be served if RV raked in more dough at the box office over Poseidon.

[GuessWho]

My grandma knows who Spider-man is. I don't think she's ever heard of the X-men.

X-men is definitely a step below Spidey. For the masses, I think the awareness level is this:


Spidey/Superman/Batman
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
everyone else

[Flay]

Well, I talked several people out of seeing X-Men 3 over the past week, so I suppose I did my part.

[clemente]

Considering most "fanboy" movies tend to be heavily front loaded and most big budget "event" movies tend to be heavily front loaded, a heavily front loaded X-Men 3 really doesn't tell me anything conclusively about word of mouth.

In fact, if I was to look at word of mouth by actually you know, seeing what people said about the film (instead of drawing random conclusions based on a number while ignoring multiple other factors), the word of mouth seems slightly positive on the whole. So I don't get the logic that bad word of mouth is killing X-Men's box office.

I concur...on every point.

I don't know anyone who does exhaustive studies of word of mouth, but apparently everyone here knows where to get that data because they've been talking about it enough.

[Suprmallet]

My grandma knows who Spider-man is. I don't think she's ever heard of the X-men.

X-men is definitely a step below Spidey. For the masses, I think the awareness level is this:


Spidey/Superman/Batman
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
everyone else

Don't tell me your grandma doesn't have Gen 13 comics hidden under her bed.

[Terrell]

X3 opens to $102 million during its first 3-day weekend and drops 66% during its second weekend. Bad word of mouth possibly?

Didn't say it wasn't possible bad word of mouth hurt it. But you seemed positive it was bad. The theater I saw it with, which was crowded, seemed to enjoy it a great deal. Anectdotal evidence to be sure, but it's the only personal evidence I have, except for the fact that everyone in my family enjoyed it. Even critical opinion is split.

[Jackskeleton]

My grandma knows who Spider-man is. I don't think she's ever heard of the X-men.

X-men is definitely a step below Spidey. For the masses, I think the awareness level is this:



You sure she doesn't just think they are all kids wearing PJ's and flying? Besides that, one grandma is no indiciation on the general knowledge of a character. Needless to say that there's X-men blankets, pillows and shirts at Kmart. It's like saying your band is "indie" when it's on every mainstream radio station...

[tanman]

You sure she doesn't just think they are all kids wearing PJ's and flying? Besides that, one grandma is no indiciation on the general knowledge of a character. Needless to say that there's X-men blankets, pillows and shirts at Kmart. It's like saying your band is "indie" when it's on every mainstream radio station...


I think you are arguing something different though. I think X-Men has almost as much recognizability as Supes, Bats and Spidey but they are not quite up there.

But the big thing is who will actually go out and pay to see the movie. While X-Men 3 did reach a whole lot more people then I thought it would, it is still no where near the mass appeal as the top three.

[Artman]

Mathew, Mr. Cinema, etc. are you guys in the industry or run any of the box office sites? I mean, I love analzying stats and stuff too, but you guys take it to another level!

Jack you work at Fox right? That's cool, I'm in the game industry myself. Wish the game stats were as readily available as movies... he he.

[jaeufraser]

I think you can take it to the bank that Xmen 3 will not only crack 200 million, but outgross X2. They're at 175 million so far, and 66% drops in the upcoming weekends is less than likely. Mix in extreme frontloadedness for this franchise (something exhibited with the much better reviewed X2) and a holiday opening frame which accounts for a bolstered Sunday, not to mention a severe lack of action this coming June.

It's just not possible. WOM isn't bad on X3 either as far as I can estimate...many people seem to have enjoyed the film. X3' drop is bigger than anticipated, but 230-240 million still seems a likely trajectory. Even if drop were consistently 60% plus, 200 million would still be essentially assured.

Break-Up exceeding expectations by 10 million surely isn't bad either. Good for Vaughn and Universal. 38 million for a 52 million movie ain't nothing to sneeze at.

[sabre]

For those of you who are saying the word of mouth on the x-men 3 is bad. entertainmently weekly had it rated B+ by it's readers. only b for mi3, davinci code and poseidon.

Also Mr. Cinema, how much did Matrix Reloaded, 281 million us only, make even with those huge drop offs like x3 second weekend. x3 should make slightly more than x2's 215 million us only. not bad chunk of change. though the cost of all these summer movies besides the break up are outrageous for non ground breaking movies.
Davinci code 125 mill cost where did the money go dan brown, hanks howard and french for shooting in paris. nothing elses worth costing that in the film
poseidon 140 million plus cost
mi3 150 mil cost
x3 i have heard 150-210 million cost for basically one big action scene and some smaller fx scenes.

[eedoon]

For those of you who are saying the word of mouth on the x-men 3 is bad. entertainmently weekly had it rated B+ by it's readers. only b for mi3, davinci code and poseidon.


While the media seems to like X3, I think the word of mouth we're talking about is when a friend tell another that the movie didn't live up to his/her expectation. From my own experience, I think that is whats happening with the movie.

[Patman]

I talked to 4 people from my office, and only 1 like X3, the rest were either middling on it, or just pissed off by it.

[raven56706]

if they were to make $5 million every day... they will make it to $200 million easy

[movielib]

After only 17 days in release, The Da Vinci Code's worldwide number is $581 million.
And it's holding on in foreign markets much better than in North America.

IIRC, the foreign share after the first weekend was about 65%. Now it's up to over 70%. It's not due to countries being added either because it opened virtually everywhere between 5/17 and 5/20.

I think it will end up about $750 million.

[The Bus]

If word of mouth here is an accurate guage of the general populace, The Break-Up will have a huge drop next weekend.

It's not.

<hr>

On X3's "Word of Mouth"...

Out of the five "big" movies currently in release, all of them have generally positive rating by users in Rotten Tomatoes, who ranked them in this order: Over the Hedge, MI3, X3, Da Vinci, Break-Up.

If you look at IMDB, X3 fares better than most, coming in 2nd in user ratings after Over the Hedge. And plenty of people voted for X3, so it's not a matter of a small sample size.

I'm not saying X3 has great word of mouth and people are telling everyone to go see it, but I don't think people are saying to avoid it.

[Nosebleed]

Mathew, Mr. Cinema, etc. are you guys in the industry or run any of the box office sites? I mean, I love analzying stats and stuff too, but you guys take it to another level!

No, but online, they like to talk as if they are! With IMDb and Box Office Mojo, it's certainly not hard to pretend, either.

[Mr. Cinema]

No, but online, they like to talk as if they are! With IMDb and Box Office Mojo, it's certainly not hard to pretend, either.
Uh, have any of my posts stated that I'm in the movie industry or run a box office info site? I simply was using public information to make a point about X3's huge decline at the box office. Numbers are a great way to back up an argument.

How is providing facts and figures "pretending you're in the industry"? :lol:

[Nosebleed]

Uh, have any of my posts stated that I'm in the movie industry or run a box office info site? I simply was using public information to make a point about X3's huge decline at the box office. Numbers are a great way to back up an argument.

How is providing facts and figures "pretending you're in the industry"? :lol:
Sorry, it's not you but the other guy who talks it up as if he's in the industry.

Nobody expected The Break Up to do a near $40 million this weekend (except me as I knew it would do Wedding Crashers-esque numbers
:rolleyes:

[Deftones]

Notice how Chimel hasn't even come on to defend himself. :lol:

[Daytripper]

For those of you who are saying the word of mouth on the x-men 3 is bad. entertainmently weekly had it rated B+ by it's readers. only b for mi3, davinci code and poseidon.


Boxofficemojo readers also gave it a B+ and it's currently at a 7.1/10 on IMDB.

[Bugg]

No, but online, they like to talk as if they are! With IMDb and Box Office Mojo, it's certainly not hard to pretend, either.

Yeah, it's pretty strange that someone would talk about box-office expectations and what not, in a box-office thread. :scratch2:

[Daytripper]

According to boxofficemojo, "X-Men 3" grossed 2.9M on Monday. If it sustains that pace (anywhere in the 2-3M per day), that'll push it in the 185-190M neighborhood by Friday. Then surely the film will make at least another 10M Friday-Sunday.

[Deftones]

According to boxofficemojo, "X-Men 3" grossed 2.9M on Monday. If it sustains that pace (anywhere in the 2-3M per day), that'll push it in the 185-190M neighborhood by Friday. Then surely the film will make at least another 10M Friday-Sunday.

No it won't! It won't even get to $200 million! It's doomed by the poor "word of mouth"! rotfl

[Deftones]

Yeah, it's pretty strange that someone would talk about box-office expectations and what not, in a box-office thread. :scratch2:

There's a difference between making predictions, and acting like whatever people are spouting is the gospel. As shown, X-men continues to do strong weekly business, making some people's predictions go down in flames.

[jaeufraser]

Sorry, it's not you but the other guy who talks it up as if he's in the industry.

Well perhaps he is in the industry? Some of us are after all.

[ThirdMan]

I, for one, am in the industry.

And I'm the first to admit that I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about.

Please everyone, enjoy your favorite movies, ignore it when people dump on the movies you like, and let's get back to making predictions - not trading insults.

[raven56706]

I, for one, am in the industry.

And I'm the first to admit that I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about.

Please everyone, enjoy your favorite movies, ignore it when people dump on the movies you like, and let's get back to making predictions - not trading insults.



yeah ok.... way to be blocked for opening multiple accounts.. rotfl...i wonder who this is...

[Daytripper]

No it won't! It won't even get to $200 million! It's doomed by the poor "word of mouth"! rotfl


Good one ;)

BTW, did anyone expect this to do much more business than "X2"? Based on some of the comments, some people are making it's probable 200 plus million box-office take (U.S. only) sound like a failure.

Another question: besides "Austin Powers" and "The Terminator", has any sequel outgrossed it's predecessor by 100 or more million?

[Hokeyboy]

Good one ;)

BTW, did anyone expect this to do much more business than "X2"? Based on some of the comments, some people are making it's probable 200 plus million box-office take (U.S. only) sound like a failure.

Another question: besides "Austin Powers" and "The Terminator", has any sequel outgrossed it's predecessor by 100 or more million?
The Matrix: Reloaded by almost $110 million.
Shrek 2 by almost $200 million. (!)

There's more but suddenly I got

[Daytripper]

The Matrix: Reloaded by almost $110 million.
Shrek 2 by almost $200 million. (!)

There's more but suddenly I got


I knew there were. Just couldn't remember which. Forgot about "Shrek 2". That has to be the record holder.

[Obey The D]

Here's another:
First Blood: $47,212,904
Rambo: First Blood 2: $150,415,432

[Mr. Cinema]

According to Hollywood-Elsewhere, The Omen made $12.5 million yesterday. Wow

[Artman]

lol, looks like Fox's marketing move worked.

[DRG]

Another question: besides "Austin Powers" and "The Terminator", has any sequel outgrossed it's predecessor by 100 or more million?

Another:

Meet the Parents $166,225,040
Meet the Fockers $279,167,575

[Joe Molotov]

And don't forget:
Return of the Jedi = $309 Million
The Phantom Menace = $431 Million

;)

[Mr. Cinema]

I can't think of anymore sequels with a $100 million increase over the previous film. Rush Hour 2 was close, making about $85 mil more than part 1.

[DRG]

What about the reverse? Franchises that dived over 100 mil?

Just off the top of my head:
Basic Instinct $117,727,224
Basic Instinct 2 $3,201,420

Star Wars $460,998,007
The Empire Strikes Back $290,271,960

[Daytripper]

What about the reverse? Franchises that dived over 100 mil?

Just off the top of my head:
Basic Instinct $117,727,224
Basic Instinct 2 $3,201,420

Star Wars $460,998,007
The Empire Strikes Back $290,271,960


LOL! Thanks for that DRG. Poor Sharon Stone.....

Funny how "Empire" made that much less than "Star Wars". I thought it was infinitely better. I assume these totals included all re-releases (?)

[Mr. Cinema]

Jurassic Park: $357 million US
The Lost World: $229 million US

Jaws: $260 m
Jaws 2: $77 m

Back to the Future: $210 m
Back to the Future 2: $118 m (almost)

Gremlins: $153 m
Gremlins 2: $41 m

Grease: $188 m
Grease 2: $15 m

[Seantn]

I don't know the exact numbers, but definitely Blair Witch 1 (over 130 million) to Blair Witch 2 (about 26 million)

[clemente]

I think a better point for comparison on the performance of X3 is the performance of the 3 part of a trilogy when compared to the previous two chapters.

The only example I can think off of the top of my head were the money didn't drastically dry up is The Return of the King.

[Deftones]

X-men 3 actually made more yesterday ($3 million and change) than it did Monday. So much for that dropoff during the week. :lol: