Weekend Box Office June 15-19

[LorenzoL]

Wednesday estimate for Batman Begins...

BATMAN BEGINS
3,718

$15,068,368
-- / $4,053
$15,068,368 / 1
N/A

[Matthew Chmiel]

Wednesday and Thursday alone; I predict Batman Begins will have a two day gross of $27 million.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday alone; I predict Batman Begins will have a weekend gross of $55 - 60 million (around $85 million total for the five days).

[Deftones]

Obviously not Star Wars numbers, but that's not bad for a Wednesday. I'm assuming that includes midnight showings too.

[Sierra Disc]

I do worry if Batman is going to be the "Hulk" of this summer, box office wise, big opening, fast drop. I haven't seen it yet, going to tonight, and am very psyched for it -- but the word I've seen seems to indicate it's less "summer action flick" than people might expect. Particularly, the under-18 crowd... $15 million on one day is good, but compare that to Spider-Man, which made $40 million a year ago on a Wednesday opening day. I do wonder how it will do in the long run. It's not the slam-dunk I think it might have once been assumed as.

(Obviously none of this has to do with the quality of the movie, so please no snarky "since when does how a movie does financially mean how it is artistically" comments...)

[Shannon Nutt]

While Star Wars basically had from May 19th until June 15th to rake it the majority of it's cash, Batman Begins has a shorter window...until the June 29th release of War of The Worlds. Still, I think it's a safe bet it will break the 200 million mark (probably well over) when all is said and done...

[Jackskeleton]

I've seen a lot of folks go in yesterday that were just casual batman fans. But the hero name alone is very recognizeable. So I don't see how it could fail.

But I think this will get a decent number of return viewings.

[Joe Molotov]

Howl's Moving Castle is getting a little bit wider release this week. Only 200 screens, but it's better than 30. I'd like to see it crack into the Top 10 this weekend.

[RyoHazuki]

Everyone who walked out of the showing I went to last night seemed to enjoy it. I highly doubt it will face a big drop. I actually think WOM will carry this sucker pretty far.

[scott shelton]

Just wait for the weekend and the families...

[Deftones]

Expect the word of mouth $$$ to be strong w/ this Batman.

[jaeufraser]

I get the feeling most people didn't relaly even know the film was out on Wednesday. And considering the positive buzz, I think a solid opening this weekend is to be expected (perhaps 60 million) and decent drop offs leading to a good overall gross.

[Jackskeleton]

Yeah, I got that feeling also that it wasn't really pounded into everyone that it was a wednesday release.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Yeah, I got that feeling also that it wasn't really pounded into everyone that it was a wednesday release.
*cough*Shrek 2*cough*

This will not be the Hulk of Summer 2005. What differs the two is that Batman Begins is getting praised by both audiences and critics alike whereas Hulk was hated by a majority of the audience. Hulk opened big and dropped huge. I think Batman Begins will have a slow start out the gate (I predict it'll break the $100 million mark right before the June 24th weekend), but unlike most summer films, I think it'll have some stability over the weekends instead of just fading into the limelight (mostly due to the positive word of mouth). While some (if not a lot) still have the awful taste of the last two Batman films in their mouth, I think most will warm up easily to see it due to the word of mouth.

And unless you're an already established franchise (Jurassic Park, Spider-man, Lord of the Rings, Matrix, etc.) or just a Christian (Passion of the Christ), most films don't open big on Wednesday. As Shrek 2 provided to us last year, you can totally bomb out on your opening Wednesday and Thursday and kick complete ass on what actually constitutes as the weeeknd.

And before anybody says, "But Batman is an already established franchise." I'd disagree, especially after Batman and Robin.

:)

[scott shelton]

Those mid-week numbers on SMITH are fantastic.

[LorenzoL]

Thursday estimate...


BATMAN BEGINS

3,718

$9,083,178

-39.7% / $2,443
$24,151,546 / 2

[Para Para]

I'm predicting a weekend gross of $71,500,000 million. Just throwing that out there...

[Trelach24]

I'm going to see Batman Begins on Sunday night hoping to avoide a huge crowd. I don't think I've ever done the Sunday night thing before.

[RichC2]

1 Batman Begins 15.194 - 3858 3,938 39.31
2 Mr. and Mrs. Smith 8.187 -56% 3451 2,372 78.90
3 Madagascar 3.272 -34% 3533 926 139.34
4 Longest Yard 2.667 -39% 3312 805 126.59
5 Revenge of the Sith 2.482 -38% 2923 849 340.58
6 The Perfect Man 2.167 NEW 2084 1,040 2.17
7 Shark Boy & Lava Girl 1.946 -51% 2655 733 19.27
8 Cinderella Man 1.567 -46% 2612 600 39.89
9 Sisterhood...Pants 1.202 -39% 2206 545 28.26
10 The Honeymooners 0.876 -52% 1912 458 7.80

A little on the low end, but after Batman and Robin... I wouldn't have expected more.

[LorenzoL]

Based on the Friday estimate, let me state the obvious and say that Batman Begins will not reach $50 million for the weekend gross.

[Sierra Disc]

Not particularly impressinve Friday numbers - that's no more than Mr. and Mrs. Smith did last weekend. I hope it picks up, but I think we're looking at under $200 million and around $50 million for the weekend for sure at this rate.

[MasterCXtreme]

Definitley won't hit 200m IMO, and like stated above: it's certainly not the summer blockbuster many people might make it out to be.

[Terrell]

Well, I'm disappointed by that number. I liked Begins a lot, and think it is a fine film. Thus, I'd like to have seen it do much better. Hopefully it will show some legs and jog past 200 million.

[Deftones]

Based on the Friday estimate, let me state the obvious and say that Batman Begins will not reach $50 million for the weekend gross.

Yeah, unless it has a monster day today and keep in line w/ Friday's numbers on Sunday it won't make it. I think this is a flick that'll have legs, though. It should get to $175 - $200 million by the end of it's domestic run.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Poor Batman Begins. :(

[Jackskeleton]

Definitley won't hit 200m IMO, and like stated above: it's certainly not the summer blockbuster many people might make it out to be.


Then again, that goes across the board. there really hasn't been any summer block buster that hit to real summer fashion. Star Wars was a thing all its own. Smith had good numbers, but that to wouldn't be Summer numbers.

I'm sure the studios are bit concerned about War of the Worlds and Fantastic four.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Then again, that goes across the board. there really hasn't been any summer block buster that hit to real summer fashion. Star Wars was a thing all its own. Smith had good numbers, but that to wouldn't be Summer numbers.

I'm sure the studios are bit concerned about War of the Worlds and Fantastic four.
At this point in time last year, only 7 films had passed the $100 million mark.

At the point this year, only 6 films have passed the $100 million mark. Not that much of a dramatic difference.

I don't think the studios are too concerned. Like Smith had better numbers than what most were expecting and it looks like it'll have some legs. Then again, The Longest Yard and Madagascar could've had better numbers, but look what they were opening up after.

However, just looking at upcoming films for this summer, only four of them have guaranteed $100 million plus numbers.

- War of the Worlds
- Fantastic Four
- Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
- The Island

Other than that, it's pretty much "who will surprise us and who will disappoint us?" Face it, this summer has a real shitty selection for mainstream films.

[animalmystic]

Damn, this just sucks, I absolutely loved Batman, and I want it to do VERY well! I want sequels dammit, if we could get sequels the calibur, or even close, to this movie I would be very happy.

Like Def said, I hope word of mouth helps this movie out.

I am going to see it again maybe tonight or Sunday,

[Jackskeleton]

At this point in time last year, only 7 films had passed the $100 million mark.

At the point this year, only 6 films have passed the $100 million mark. Not that much of a dramatic difference.

Well, the general concern has happened last year also. This sort of thing isn't a slump that is shruged off easily.

As for Box office block busters. WotW and Fantastic Four are upcoming flicks that are looked at with that sort of game face on. Batman was also suppose to be a power house but it's looking like it will be one WB will come out and say they are happy with.The Island, I don't think it'll slam that 100 mark.

[Deftones]

Yeah, but last year didn't have a monster Star Wars hit, right? Or was Shrek 2 released last year. I can't remember.

The big monster BO hits will always help to even out lackluster years.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Yeah, but last year didn't have a monster Star Wars hit, right? Or was Shrek 2 released last year. I can't remember.

The big monster BO hits will always help to even out lackluster years.
Last year had a triple slam of Passion of the Christ, Shrek 2, and Spider-man 2.

[Get Me Coffee]

Damn, this just sucks, I absolutely loved Batman, and I want it to do VERY well! I want sequels dammit, if we could get sequels the calibur, or even close, to this movie I would be very happy.

Like Def said, I hope word of mouth helps this movie out.

I am going to see it again maybe tonight or Sunday,

Don't worry, we'll get our sequels! C'mon the Joker is next!

[Get Me Coffee]

Well, the general concern has happened last year also. This sort of thing isn't a slump that is shruged off easily.

As for Box office block busters. WotW and Fantastic Four are upcoming flicks that are looked at with that sort of game face on. Batman was also suppose to be a power house but it's looking like it will be one WB will come out and say they are happy with.The Island, I don't think it'll slam that 100 mark.

I agree The Island isn't going to past that 100mil benchmark.

[Matthew Chmiel]

I agree The Island isn't going to past that 100mil benchmark.
Michael Bay is guaranteed a $100 million film.

As of now, all his films with the exception of the original Bad Boys have grossed over $100 million.

The Island looks like a dumb hokey sci-fi action thriller, but with little competition, The Island will probably secure itself a $100 million gross with no effort at all.

[Jackskeleton]

The Island looks like a dumb hokey sci-fi action thriller

I think that's the nail in the coffen. It has a Gattaca feel to it. I'm really just not sure how folks will react to it. Considering the previews get a :wtf: from the crowd whenever they've played in theaters I've been in. I'm just not sure what it's going to do.

I have a feeling F4 will have the same thing happen to it that Batman is. a fairly big opening, but just shy of what they were shooting/hoping for.

[Sierra Disc]

I'm so sick of hearing about this "slump." What I don't get is, people are buying DVDs by the kazillions, so even a flop can be profitable on DVD - and the studios surely get their cut of that, so they're not hurting for cash. What we're seeing is a new trend where home viewing is eclipsing theatrical viewing, and it's going to be interesting to see where it goes. I'm definitely at the point where I only see 6-7 movies a year at the theater because the experience is so crappy and I can wait 4 months for DVD anyway. I'm bummed about "Batman Begins," but the Monday-morning woe-is-me reports about this "slump" we keep hearing about won't make me sob a bit.

[Jackskeleton]

that slunp doesn't help the movie theaters. so we discuss it since it shouldn't be tossed out.

yes, there's a market structure change that the studios are making the best bang from dvd sales. but that doesn't help theaters at all.

[Sierra Disc]

That's a good point about the theaters, I hadn't thought about them. Of course, the theaters I've been going to are so crappy I wouldn't be too broken up if they all burned down! It seems like theater owners need to modernize and make the experience more pleasant for most of us...

[Jackskeleton]

The problem is that the studio isn't producing films that seem to have any sort of legs behind them. I'm sure other factors come into play, but the theater doesn't make much of anything on the film the first few weeks it's released. By the time the theater starts making a good % of the box office take, most films are already dead by then.

[Matthew Chmiel]

That's a good point about the theaters, I hadn't thought about them. Of course, the theaters I've been going to are so crappy I wouldn't be too broken up if they all burned down! It seems like theater owners need to modernize and make the experience more pleasant for most of us...
A majority of the theaters in Vegas are pretty much well up to standards. Nice stadium seating and top of the line sound systems are pretty much standard in all the theaters here, but it would be nice for a few theaters out here to use DLP on a regular basis (the Palms played films in digital during CineVegas this past week and a few Century Theaters will only break out the DLP for when a Star Wars film is released).

However, at the rate the theater prices are increasing in Vegas (they've gone from $5.50 to $6.25 in less than a year for matinee), the theaters are going to need to bring more to the audience then just a par presentation.

And it's no wonder why the studios question why less people are going to the movies. Why spend $10 a person to see a movie in a sub-par presentation when you can spend $20 a few months later and see an excellent presentation in your own home theater...

[PopcornTreeCt]

Hollywood needs to stop ignoring DVD sales because consumers haven't. They keep saying it's a disappointing year, well guess what, next year ain't gonna be any better! This is it, the movie theatre experience isn't dead but expectations need to be lowered. $100 million dollar movies are going to be on the decline unless movie theatres do something about it.

[Nesbit]

The thing that worries me most about the Batman opening is what will this mean for the sequel? I have no doubts there will be one but how much influence will the studio have on the finished product if this one didn't meet box office expectations. Bring on the nipples!

[Jackskeleton]

Hollywood needs to stop ignoring DVD sales because consumers haven't. They keep saying it's a disappointing year, well guess what, next year ain't gonna be any better! This is it, the movie theatre experience isn't dead but expectations need to be lowered. $100 million dollar movies are going to be on the decline unless movie theatres do something about it.


Uh... your all over the place with that comment. So Hollywood needs to wake up and realize dvd sales? They do. They gladly will turn the profit when it comes to dvd sales in saving a production.

Now you also said that Movie Theatres need to do something about it.... Like what can they actually do? If they lower the price of admission you will see a larger amount of quality scaled back in your theatre going experience. Less take in means less workers so the clean up crews will be cut back meaning dirty floors. Less advancements in theatre equipment like sound system and projection means. Higher prices of snacks.

Hollywood(the studios) aren't really to concerned right now about the theatre chains and that's a major issue. The studios are still getting as much, if not more box office cash but the theatre going experience seems like it's about on the edge with chains going under or close to it more often. What needs to be done is a better % deal needs to be struck with the studios and the theatre chains and if not that, The studio should work on helping the chains by not advertising or pushing back the dvd release by an extra month or so. That way there is actually some benefit to going and seeing a movie in the big screen.

Yes, home theatre experiences are now almost as equal to going out and that plays a big factor in which films folks go and see opposed to which ones they stay home and wait for.

[Xndman]

This probably isn't the thread for this but since there is talk of a summer movie slump I'll bring it up. If studies want to decrease cost and increase profitability, why don't they just lower the amount actors are paid? For example, I don't know exactly what Tom's getting for WOTWs, but I'm sure it's in excess of $20 million. Will this movie really do any better because it has Tom Cruise? I've never gone to see a movie because of an actor. IMO the writer and director make the films. Lets point to Spiderman, couldn't Toby and Kirsten really be replaced by thousands of other actors?

[Patman]

Bankable actors attract better talent, and more money to front the film. The production values suffer if they can't get the "bankable" talent.

[devilshalo]

The thing is that the Hollywood Studios only care about themselves and not how it affects the industry as a whole. They're shooting themselves in the foot on the theatrical screen and tv screen because they rely too heavily on the home video market. If they had not tried to release a home video product so soon after first airing, maybe theater grosses and tv ratings would be higher.

[RichC2]

1. Batman Begins WB $46,935,000 - 3,858 - $12,165 $71,087,000 $120 / - 1
2. Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $27,300,000 -45.8% 3,451 +27 $7,910 $97,961,000 $110 / - 2
3. Madagascar DW $11,100,000 -35.4% 3,533 -396 $3,141 $147,195,000 - / - 4
4. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $9,700,000 -34.7% 2,923 -399 $3,318 $347,802,000 $113 / - 5
5. The Longest Yard Par. $8,000,000 -42.4% 3,312 -342 $2,415 $131,905,000 $82 / - 4
6. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $6,633,000 -47.3% 2,655 - $2,498 $23,955,000 - / - 2
7. The Perfect Man Uni. $5,478,000 - 2,087 - $2,624 $5,478,000 - / - 1
8. Cinderella Man Uni. $5,233,000 -46.2% 2,610 -210 $2,004 $43,554,000 $88 / - 3
9. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $3,170,000 -44.5% 2,206 -377 $1,436 $30,203,000 $25 / - 3
10. The Honeymooners Par. $2,570,000 -53.6% 1,912 - $1,344 $9,473,000 $25 / - 2
11. Crash Lions $1,250,000 -33.4% 651 -257 $1,920 $46,375,000 $6.50 / - 7
12. Monster-in-Law NL $1,125,000 -57.1% 1,165 -784 $965 $78,697,000 $43 / - 6
13. Howl's Moving Castle BV $802,000 +87.4% 202 +166 $3,970 $1,420,000 - / - 2
14. High Tension Lions $600,000 -68.4% 1,209 -114 $496 $3,200,000 - / - 2

- 20 Layer Cake SPC $177,000 -30.2% 145 -51 $1,220 $1,842,000 - / - 6

3rd highest opening weekend for Batman (uninflated), 1st highest for first 5 days. Despite all the hype that it'd be #1 with $60 - $65m, the film opened very much in line with other batmans - it's always been about the legs with the series. And considering it's take on Wednesday and Thursday, it's hard to really consider the #s to be a disappointment.

But it better keep jogging right along, I need those sequels... dammit.

[Para Para]

I'm predicting a weekend gross of $71,500,000 million. Just throwing that out there...

uhmm, I guess I wasn't too far off... I was talking about the 5-day gross as well, so yeah.

[sabre]

batman begins reminds me of terminator 3 box office performance. terminator 3 was a word of mouth $150 million costing movie. no one wanted to see terminator 3 because of no cameron. after batman and robin the public has lost interest in batman and x-men and spiderman are in. Batman begins like terminator 3 will get good word of mouth and hopefully make 150 million at least. i may actually see the movie again which is unusual for me to just support the film and good filmaking.

[Terrell]

after batman and robin the public has lost interest in batman and x-men and spiderman are in.

Well, the same could be argued about the prequels. After TPM, the public lost interest in Star Wars. But AOTC made 310 million and made more on opening weekend than TPM. Certainly less than TPM, but it and the prequels have performed exactly like the original three films did at the box office. I know, comparing Batman to Star Wars is not exactly a fair comparison.

So I'm not sure all of this could be attributed Batman & Robin. That was almost a decade ago. I'd argue that already having 4 Batman films was the reason people just weren't as excited. With Spider-Man, that was the first time he had ever been brought to the big screen. Not so with Batman.

[jaeufraser]

This probably isn't the thread for this but since there is talk of a summer movie slump I'll bring it up. If studies want to decrease cost and increase profitability, why don't they just lower the amount actors are paid? For example, I don't know exactly what Tom's getting for WOTWs, but I'm sure it's in excess of $20 million. Will this movie really do any better because it has Tom Cruise? I've never gone to see a movie because of an actor. IMO the writer and director make the films. Lets point to Spiderman, couldn't Toby and Kirsten really be replaced by thousands of other actors?

No, I don't think that would work. Look at Tom Cruise's films...now look at their box office. Do you really think it's mere coincidence that nearly all of them have grossed north of 100 million dollars? And do you really think casting is so irrelevant that "anyone" could play these roles?

It's not a magic science, but it's obvious that stars do help in box office. Let's take The Longest Yard for instance...it's on course to 150 million or so. Take Adam Sandler out of the equation, that probably wouldn't be the case. Yes, you can find examples of star films failing, or of non star films succeeding, but in general it does work. And you're not paying the actors for their work...you're paying for them as a product, as a marketing tool. And people like Tom Cruise, Will Smith, Julia Roberts, Jim Carrey...they're worth it. Heck just look at last week, Mr and Mrs Smith...no way that movie opens to 50 million dollars without the hype surrouding its two leads.

Besides, the problem here isn't studio profits, its theater profits. And the reason lowering the actor's pay wouldn't work, is because those salaries are based on demand...if WB offers Tommy only 5 million to do movies in the future, wouldn't you imagine he just won't accept? And the highest bidder will then get him.

As for Batman's opening...a bit soft, and probably a bit disapointing to WB. Let's see how it holds up next week to get a better picture. The T3 comparison seems spot on now.

[Sessa17]

Michael Bay is guaranteed a $100 million film.

As of now, all his films with the exception of the original Bad Boys have grossed over $100 million.

The Island looks like a dumb hokey sci-fi action thriller, but with little competition, The Island will probably secure itself a $100 million gross with no effort at all.

I'd be willing to place a bet that the film does not make $100. Ewan is not a box office draw (despite being one of my favorite actors), Scarlett is not even a household name yet, & the average Joe has no clue what the film is about even after seeing the trailer. I've seen this trailer twice, on opening night for movies in a sold out 700 seat theater & both times it got absolutely zero reaction. It will probably have a around a $25 million opening weekend & an upward battle from there unless it is somehow really surprising which I doubt.

[Just Lurking]

I cannot see Island making $100 million but the traders over HSX have it making $116 in its first four weeks and $128 million by Labor Day (roughly 6 weeks) with warrant positions.
I have not been impressed with shots I have seen so far. You guys have pushed me into shorting it.

[TomOpus]

I cannot see Island making $100 million but the traders over HSX have it making $116 in its first four weeks and $128 million by Labor Day (roughly 6 weeks) with warrant positions.
I have not been impressed with shots I have seen so far. You guys have pushed me into shorting it.That might be a wise move. Batman Begins adjusted -42 on HSX. This shows that there were high expectations for BB.

[Jackskeleton]

HSX usually over shoots it a great deal when it comes to the Summer warrents. Batman's warrent dropped a shit load since the less than steller box office take was released.

[devilshalo]

I played safe and just shorted Perfect Man's opening for some pocket change.

[resinrats]

I wouln'd say $71 M is bad for Batman. If studios now expect $100M opening to consider a film a success, they are pretty much always be dissapointed.

[Wazootyman]

Are people really expecting Fantastic Four to be that much of a box office draw? I really like comic book films, but everything just seems second rate about it... directors, stars, special effects look kind of weak, and even the franchise itself feels second rate - It's quite obvious that it is no Spider-man, and it is no Batman.

I know Spider-man hit so well, because people were itching for a Spider-man movie, and one just hadn't hit. It cashed in on the pent up demand (and the quality of the movie to boot). I just don't feel that Fantastic Four is as popular of a series, and while there might be some demand, it just seems like it has a bomb written all over it.

[devilshalo]

Are people really expecting Fantastic Four to be that much of a box office draw?
I expect Charlie's Angels (not the sequel) type numbers. Did anyone expect Scooby Doo to be a box office draw?

[scott shelton]

I expect Charlie's Angels (not the sequel) type numbers.


ANGELS 1 worldwide: $264,105,545

ANGELS 2 worldwide: $259,175,788

They would probably take the sequel's numbers if they had to. ;)

[fryinpan1]

Great second week numbers for Mr. & Mrs. Smith. It has already made $134 million worldwide.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=mrandmrssmith.htm

I do not expect Fantastic Four to be huge. I don't think it looks very good and I doubt the reviews will be too kind.

[raven56706]

Everyone go watch Batman Begins.... you will not be disappointed

[devilshalo]

I do not expect Fantastic Four to be huge. I don't think it looks very good and I doubt the reviews will be too kind.
Like I said, just because it looks like crap and gets bad reviews doesn't mean it won't make money. Sure, all signs may point to box office bomb but yet this film (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=scoobydoo.htm) made money.

[Geofferson]

Everyone go watch Batman Begins.... you will not be disappointed
What he said. :)

[Jackskeleton]

Fantastic Four is another summer movie that the studio is hoping for some good numbers. Considering how much they have spent on NBA finals marketing and so forth they are hoping for that. Though for the time being, Smith seems to keep them happy enough.

[fitprod]

RE: Fantastic Four

I haven't sensed a pending failure like this since... Catwoman.

It'll make more than Catwoman, but not much more. When the core audience, Comic Book Fans/Geeks show no interest in the film, you are dead.

There's a reason Fox has re-cut the trailer three times, and placed the advance critic screeenings only three days in advanced.

fitprod

[neiname]

RE: Fantastic Four

I haven't sensed a pending failure like this since... Catwoman.

It'll make more than Catwoman, but not much more. When the core audience, Comic Book Fans/Geeks show no interest in the film, you are dead.

There's a reason Fox has re-cut the trailer three times, and placed the advance critic screeenings only three days in advanced.

fitprod

CatWoman made $40,202,379, I also believe Fantastic Four will have issues but it will reach $100 million with no problems. I still see people also asking whether a movie will top $100 million, I would argue that for some of these blockbusters now $150-$175 million is the new $100 million.

[RichC2]

Weekend Actuals:

1 N Batman Begins WB $48,745,440 - 3,858 - $12,634 $72,896,986 $150 / - 1
2 1 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $26,037,023 -48.3% 3,451 +27 $7,544 $96,697,986 $110 / - 2
3 2 Madagascar DW $10,737,325 -37.5% 3,533 -396 $3,039 $146,831,846 - / - 4
4 3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $10,038,498 -32.4% 2,923 -399 $3,434 $348,140,685 $113 / - 5
5 4 The Longest Yard Par. $8,239,853 -40.6% 3,312 -342 $2,487 $132,144,471 $82 / - 4
6 5 The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $6,692,907 -46.8% 2,655 - $2,520 $24,015,408 - / - 2
7 6 Cinderella Man Uni. $5,572,285 -42.7% 2,610 -210 $2,134 $43,893,695 $88 / - 3
8 N The Perfect Man Uni. $5,300,980 - 2,087 - $2,540 $5,300,980 $10 / - 1
9 7 The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $3,127,232 -45.2% 2,206 -377 $1,417 $30,160,110 $25 / - 3
10 8 The Honeymooners Par. $2,648,330 -52.2% 1,912 - $1,385 $9,551,584 $25 / - 2


Batman Begins actually beat its estimate by nearly $2m, and several sites were reporting that it was a "bloated" estimate... nice!

Also, FX reportedly bought cable-rights for the flick for a hefty $25m.

[fumanstan]

RE: Fantastic Four

I haven't sensed a pending failure like this since... Catwoman.

It'll make more than Catwoman, but not much more. When the core audience, Comic Book Fans/Geeks show no interest in the film, you are dead.

There's a reason Fox has re-cut the trailer three times, and placed the advance critic screeenings only three days in advanced.

fitprod

I don't think that's even close to being the case. Fantastic Four doesn't nearly have the negative buzz as Catwoman did. I think the reaction to FF has been pretty mixed from those who felt the trailers were fine and others who thought it looked terrible. I expect $100 million as well.

[DRG]

Well, so far Premiere magazine's predictions (http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=418590) have been really hit or miss.

Imagine that.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Well, so far Premiere magazine's predictions (http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=418590) have been really hit or miss.

Imagine that.
And by "hit or miss" you mean "miss every year they do their stupid fucking predictions" then you'd be correct. ;)

[Goat3001]

I think F4 has a chance at $150m with positive buzz. Otherwise it'll top off at $100 or less. I think people have learned their lesson from The Hulk. Not all comic book movies are going to be good. But then again this one has Jessica Alba.

[Artman]

It'll make more than Catwoman, but not much more. When the core audience, Comic Book Fans/Geeks show no interest in the film, you are dead.


How bout the general public?

[Matthew Chmiel]

I think F4 has a chance at $150m with positive buzz. Otherwise it'll top off at $100 or less. I think people have learned their lesson from The Hulk. Not all comic book movies are going to be good. But then again this one has Jessica Alba showing off horrible acting skills and delivering terrible dialog.
Fixed.

[Matthew Chmiel]

Actuals...
1. Batman Begins - $48,745,440 | $72,896,986
2. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $26,037,023 | $96,697,986
3. Madagascar - $10,737,325 | $146,831,846
4. Star Wars: Episode III - $10,038,498 | $348,140,685
5. The Longest Yard - $8,239,853 | $132,144,471
6. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl In 3D - $6,692,908 | $24,015,408
7. Cinderella Man - $5,572,285 | $43,893,695
8. The Perfect Man - $5,300,980 | $5,300,980
9. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $3,127,232 | $30,160,110
10. The Honeymooners - $2,648,330 | $9,551,584

Other points:
- Crash should top around $50 million once it's done in theaters (it's currently at $46 million). :thumbsup:
- Lords of Dogtown will not pass the $15 million mark.
- High Tension will not pass the $5 million mark.

[Jackskeleton]

Fixed.

I don't care if she just says "duh" the whole movie long. Sking tight outfit on a hot chick means the seats will be filled.

[Matthew Chmiel]

I don't care if she just says "duh" the whole movie long. Sking tight outfit on a hot chick means the seats will be filled.
Then why did Catwoman bomb? I don't mean to sound like a queer or nothing, but I'd do Halle Berry. :)

[neiname]

Wow, the Honeymooners is hurting.

[Jackskeleton]

Then why did Catwoman bomb? I don't mean to sound like a queer or nothing, but I'd do Halle Berry. :)



i wouldn't touch her with your dick. and F4 atleast looks better than that. atleast it takes after the comic.

[Drexl]

Michael Bay is guaranteed a $100 million film.

That is true. His contract with the devil says so.

[Matthew Chmiel]

i wouldn't touch her with your dick. and F4 atleast looks better than that. atleast it takes after the comic.
Well let me tell you this, I've touched a lot worse with my dick. ;)



And I just insulted myself... shit...

[Kumar J]

Don't flatter yourself :)

[TomOpus]

Well let me tell you this, I've touched a lot worse with my dick. ;)



And I just insulted myself... shit...I would think you insulted some/most of your "close" female friends :D

[Mr. Cinema]

I think F4 has a chance at $150m with positive buzz. Otherwise it'll top off at $100 or less. I think people have learned their lesson from The Hulk. Not all comic book movies are going to be good. But then again this one has Jessica Alba.
I loved The Hulk. But he's my favorite comic character. Still, I think the main problem people had with it was they were expecting 2 hrs of Hulk Smash and all they got was about 30 minutes. Ang Lee was trying to make the film be too deep and emotional. The audience wanted a "fun" Hulk movie. I think the sequel will be just that.

[Fielding Mellish]

Wonder how all the haters are gonna feel when (and if) the FF out-earns Batman this summer.

(I'm looking directly at you, Mr. Knowles!)

Judging from Batman Begins' relatively soft start, you have to admit that it's at least possible.

[LorenzoL]

Wonder how all the haters are gonna feel when (and if) the FF out-earns Batman this summer.

(I'm looking directly at you, Mr. Knowles!)

Judging from Batman Begins' relatively soft start, you have to admit that it's at least possible.

I'm in the naysayers camp that this will happen.

My faith in humankind will sorely be tested if FF does out earns Batman Begins IMHO.

[Mr. Cinema]

I think, #1, FF won't open as big as Batman did its first week. #2, Batman isn't likely to drop 50-60% its second weekend like I think FF will.

War of the Worlds could factor in some of this. The buzz is good on this and if it carries over its second weekend, that could easily take a chunk of some $$$ from FF.

[Terrell]

but I'd do Halle Berry

You and I both. I don't care what anyone thinks of Halle Berry the person or actress. But any redblooded, hetero male has to know Halle Berry is incredibly hot. It's not even debateable.

[Dead]

Then why did Catwoman bomb? I don't mean to sound like a queer or nothing, but I'd do Halle Berry. :)


We really don't need to use "queer" in our discussions. In the future, please find a nicer way to phrase your comments.

[Matthew Chmiel]

We really don't need to use "queer" in our discussions. In the future, please find a nicer way to phrase your comments.
The quote is a play on a commonly used quote from the movie Orgazmo though. :(