I saw early on that both Virginia and South Carolina were "too close to call" when they relied on exit polling, and that the rest of the country wasn't too far behind on this issue either. The networks have traditionally relied on these sort of predictions to make their early calls, but this year they were WAY off. Any idea why?
kenbuzz
11-03-04, 08:44 AM
Exit polling asks voters as they leave the polls who they voted for. They have no way of accounting for (a) absentee ballots, (b) ballots cast early, (c) people lying, (d) people who voted before the exit pollers showed up, or (e) people who voted after the exit pollers left. If exit polling is done mid-day, they miss the bulk of voters who work, many of whom are Republican, thus their sample is skewed.
Exit polling has become a terribly inaccurate way of predicting the outcome of ALL of the voters.
Goldblum
11-03-04, 08:48 AM
I'm curious myself. Exit polling had my state at 60/40 for Kerry. It ended up being something like 51/49 or 52/48.
Y2K Falcon
11-03-04, 08:52 AM
[DUForums]No, the exit polling got it right! It's the new electronic voting...
"EVERY STATE that has EVoting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.
In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their EVoting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.
So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits
vs.
A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits"[DUForums]
-screwy-
bfrank
11-03-04, 09:12 AM
I think the polls tracked pretty close. Bush by 2% national and all of the states are right as expected and it came down to Ohio which was too close to call.
This is what I expected.
nevermind
11-03-04, 09:12 AM
Originally posted by bfrank
I think the polls tracked pretty close. Bush by 2% national and all of the states are right as expected and it came down to Ohio which was too close to call.
This is what I expected.
what about zogby?
bfrank
11-03-04, 09:13 AM
:o
just read the "exit" part of the title
towbinaj
11-03-04, 10:48 AM
The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.
No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.
Myster X
11-03-04, 10:49 AM
Originally posted by towbinaj
The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.
No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.
Thanks for your two cents.
nevermind
11-03-04, 10:52 AM
Originally posted by towbinaj
The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.
No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.
weeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
Lemondrop
11-03-04, 10:56 AM
Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
wendersfan
11-03-04, 10:57 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 . I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
CaptainMarvel
11-03-04, 10:58 AM
Wow. Just wow.
I wish I'd bought stock in Reynolds, because it's got to take a helluva lot of aluminum foil to make the hats some of you guys are wearing.
_tony_
11-03-04, 11:01 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
nevermind
11-03-04, 11:03 AM
Originally posted by tonytapez
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
:lol:
What is that from? I can't remember...
tublecane
11-03-04, 11:05 AM
it was all the cell phone users.... ;-)
_tony_
11-03-04, 11:06 AM
Originally posted by nevermind
:lol:
What is that from? I can't remember...
http://www.imdb.com/Title?0112508
:)
nevermind
11-03-04, 11:06 AM
Originally posted by tonytapez
http://www.imdb.com/Title?0112508
:)
thanks!
Trigger
11-03-04, 11:07 AM
like all polls it's unreliable. Either that or people voted for Kerry but the Bush camp fixed the election.
leepyswetr
11-03-04, 11:08 AM
Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
I wish I'd bought stock in Reynolds, because it's got to take a helluva lot of aluminum foil to make the hats some of you guys are wearing. rotfl
Mad Dawg
11-03-04, 11:09 AM
This thread has a lot of promise. Hopefully, we don't get bogged down in details like lack of absentee and early voters, or the poor exit poll showing in 2002, or any of that other nonsense. Just keep on track with the conspiracies.
Jam Master Jay
11-03-04, 11:10 AM
Originally posted by tonytapez
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
rotfl :thumbsup:
General Zod
11-03-04, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
Sore loser.
heimerSWT
11-03-04, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by wendersfan
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11? Because, some people are easily convinced by fringe groups with money that the President and his cabinet members created 9/11 in order to undermine our civil liberties. They needed a way to get the Patriot Act passed, so what better way to do that than to destroy the two tallest buildings in the country, and "fake" a plane crash into the mother of all military headquarters.
Haven't you watched "9/11 In Plane Site" yet? Ian Jane said it was Highly Recommended. :rolleyes:
I've seen it 3 times, and cringe at the thought of people actually believing the "evidence" put forth by the people that produced the documentary, and others like them.
Mad Dawg
11-03-04, 11:12 AM
Originally posted by wendersfan
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
Give me 100% hard proof that he wasn't! :mad:
Lemondrop
11-03-04, 11:12 AM
Originally posted by wendersfan
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
If you rely on more than US news it is easy to see how the events unfolded .
If your in a state reading about a goat and it's not on the list of areas to be attacked ......
Now , does the secret service wisk you away when your told the country is under attack ?
There is alot of lies surrounding Bush , it seems every story around him is chock full of lies and the mainstream media of this country is happy to not ask the questions . Why have we never been given the data from the flight recorders ? They say "because of a ongoing investigation and criminal procedures" , so they plan in usuing the information in court .
How exactly will giving us the data and cockpit recordings damage a trial that is never going to happen anyway ?
If a trial does happen , ask yourself if the data will be made public ?
The people of this country have a right to know what and whom caused 9-11 , by hiding behind procedures and saying it's in the interest of national security is simply BS .
Im not saying the planes were flown with remote control or anything but what I am suggesting is it was known that the events were going to happen and they were allowed to happen , to further the cause of the NWO's world domination .
If we were given all the information , we could easily find that Osama Bin Laden was the person responsible 100% .
When the government hides the information , it makes itself look and become a guilty party . The say "we can't release the information because of national security" , now ask yourself why we can't be allowed to know what Osama knows ?
Obviously he knew how to get access to the planes and use them as how they were done so telling everyone here how it was done won't give Osama any new information that he can use ..... correct ?
We are being led to slaughter like sheep , lined up and given our daily dose of mis-information . We are all nothing more than Corporate Slaves , just some of us have a easy time figuring it out and others resist and believe the corrupt system that keeps us in check .
Sweet Baby James
11-03-04, 11:14 AM
It looks like some of the DU users have decided to drop by.:lol:
Originally posted by Lemondrop
... to further the cause of the NWO's world domination ....
rotfl
Please keep this up. You're killing me here.
We are being led to slaughter like sheep , lined up and given our daily dose of mis-information . We are all nothing more than Corporate Slaves , just some of us have a easy time figuring it out and others resist and believe the corrupt system that keeps us in check .
Dude, 90% of your posts are in the bargains or hot deals forum, and talk about buying stuff from places like Best Buy, McDonald's, Amazon, etc. That's resisting the corrupt corporate system?
Jam Master Jay
11-03-04, 11:18 AM
:lol:
This thread rules.
DGibFen
11-03-04, 11:19 AM
to further the cause of the NWO's world domination...
http://dl.dyc.edu/~canz/florida/nwo.jpg
_tony_
11-03-04, 11:20 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
If you rely on more than US news it is easy to see how the events unfolded .
If your in a state reading about a goat and it's not on the list of areas to be attacked ......
Now , does the secret service wisk you away when your told the country is under attack ?
There is alot of lies surrounding Bush , it seems every story around him is chock full of lies and the mainstream media of this country is happy to not ask the questions . Why have we never been given the data from the flight recorders ? They say "because of a ongoing investigation and criminal procedures" , so they plan in usuing the information in court .
How exactly will giving us the data and cockpit recordings damage a trial that is never going to happen anyway ?
If a trial does happen , ask yourself if the data will be made public ?
The people of this country have a right to know what and whom caused 9-11 , by hiding behind procedures and saying it's in the interest of national security is simply BS .
Im not saying the planes were flown with remote control or anything but what I am suggesting is it was known that the events were going to happen and they were allowed to happen , to further the cause of the NWO's world domination .
If we were given all the information , we could easily find that Osama Bin Laden was the person responsible 100% .
When the government hides the information , it makes itself look and become a guilty party . The say "we can't release the information because of national security" , now ask yourself why we can't be allowed to know what Osama knows ?
Obviously he knew how to get access to the planes and use them as how they were done so telling everyone here how it was done won't give Osama any new information that he can use ..... correct ?
We are being led to slaughter like sheep , lined up and given our daily dose of mis-information . We are all nothing more than Corporate Slaves , just some of us have a easy time figuring it out and others resist and believe the corrupt system that keeps us in check .
Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
Dude, 90% of your posts are in the bargains or hot deals forum, and talk about buying stuff from places like Best Buy, McDonald's, Amazon, etc. That's resisting the corrupt corporate system?
rotfl
wendersfan
11-03-04, 11:20 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
If you rely on more than US news it is easy to see how the events unfolded . I've written extensively about where and from whom I get my news. You must have missed those posts.
_tony_
11-03-04, 11:23 AM
Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
Dude, 90% of your posts are in the bargains or hot deals forum, and talk about buying stuff from places like Best Buy, McDonald's, Amazon, etc. That's resisting the corrupt corporate system?
Dude, 90% of your posts are in the bargains or hot deals forum, and talk about buying stuff from places like Best Buy, McDonald's, Amazon, etc. That's resisting the corrupt corporate system?
If I was not resisting in the slightest Id be paying full prices for everything I have . I enjoy entertainment as much as the next person . Using bargains has nothing to do with my feelings towards Bush .
I knew when I posted in here Id be wasting my fingers , I have a opinion and you have yours . If you choose to believe the lies the media of this country spouts , that is your choice and nothing anybody says or does will change that .
I hope for the sake of our children that Im a nervous fool whom is to wrapped up in conspiracy to see the light ahead . I fear that is not the case and time will produce the truth .
Sweet Baby James
11-03-04, 11:26 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
If you choose to believe the lies the media of this country spouts Dan Rather has been lying to me?:hscratch:
CaptainMarvel
11-03-04, 11:30 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
If I was not resisting in the slightest Id be paying full prices for everything I have . I enjoy entertainment as much as the next person . Using bargains has nothing to do with my feelings towards Bush .
:lol:
I suppose I'll see you in Best Buy "sticking it to 'da man" on Black Friday, then.
brianluvdvd
11-03-04, 11:31 AM
Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
Dude, 90% of your posts are in the bargains or hot deals forum, and talk about buying stuff from places like Best Buy, McDonald's, Amazon, etc. That's resisting the corrupt corporate system?
Awesome. Simply awesome.
Pharoh
11-03-04, 11:31 AM
To get this thread back on topic:
Fuck zogby!
wendersfan
11-03-04, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by Pharoh
To get this thread back on topic:
Fuck zogby! Yep. I'm glad the Emperor has no clothes.
Sweet Baby James
11-03-04, 11:33 AM
Originally posted by Pharoh
To get this thread back on topic:
Fuck zogby! :lol:
That's the way to reclaim a hijacked thread.
Mad Dawg
11-03-04, 11:34 AM
Originally posted by Pharoh
To get this thread back on topic:
Fuck zogby!
Has he announced that he expertly predicted that Bush would win the popular vote yet? :lol:
DaveNinja
11-03-04, 11:37 AM
Viva la revolution! 10% off coupons for all!
Lemondrop
11-03-04, 11:38 AM
Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
:lol:
I suppose I'll see you in Best Buy "sticking it to 'da man" on Black Friday, then.
No , Best Buy normally sells the stuff on the web so I avoid the drive :)
No hard feelings guys , this is a forum and I normally use it for DVD's . Just felt I needed a vent and I feel better now .
I said I might be paranoid ..... my wife thinks so :)
Have fun .
dtcarson
11-03-04, 11:44 AM
Straight from the horse's mouth:
" Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:
“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.
“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."
(more from Zogby coming soon…)"
http://zogby.com/
IOW, We weren't wrong, that's what the Margin or Error is for.'
logrus9
11-03-04, 11:44 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
my wife thinks so :)
pics??
matchpenalty
11-03-04, 11:44 AM
i have said it before.. changing demographics have not been accounted for... lot of people buying homes, changing their economic situations, more mobile society... there is a lag.. and very poor voter turnout calcs.. I don't think more than one or two pollsters (non exit) figured on the high religious right turnout.. high turnout has always been believed to favor the dems.. not this time. gop voters flocked to the polls, but not in every state.. noone expected 'moral issues' to be the top named issue in so many places as a reason for a vote..
Pharoh
11-03-04, 12:08 PM
Originally posted by matchpenalty
i have said it before.. changing demographics have not been accounted for... lot of people buying homes, changing their economic situations, more mobile society... there is a lag.. and very poor voter turnout calcs.. I don't think more than one or two pollsters (non exit) figured on the high religious right turnout.. high turnout has always been believed to favor the dems.. not this time. gop voters flocked to the polls, but not in every state.. noone expected 'moral issues' to be the top named issue in so many places as a reason for a vote..
Luntz, amongst others, got it correct.
Pharoh
11-05-04, 11:12 PM
According to a report prepared by pollsters Joe Lenski and Warren Mitofsky, the new $10M system designed to prevent any election night mishaps had flaws that the networks were unaware of. The report, obtained by the New York Times, stated "We share all the members' concerns about the inaccuracies in the projections produced by the early waves of exit poll data and we are personally miffed about the early results." The report explained that survey takers were often stopped by legal barriers and unable to get close enough to the polls to collect adequate samples. Also John Kerry supporters were more open to pollsters, resulting in "the biggest partisan skew" since at least '88, "the earliest election the report tracked."
Networks said that the data was rectified throughout the night, making the final poll accurate. "Lenski acknowledged that subscribers should have been made aware of the problems that were becoming apparent throughout the day, as all of the partners running the systems were. He said no subscribers had asked for their money back"
The report from the exit pollsters stressed that the way the information spread across the Internet lead to the false reading of the information, "saving some of its harshest words for the networks and subscribers," whom it accused of the leak. More from the report: "If it were not for leaks we would not have much of the problem forced on us by the leakees: the nonsubscribing media and the politicos. ... They don't know how to evaluate what is being leaked, and then they demand that the leaked results be accurate in midday before it is vetted and before it is complete. ... We made a mistake in not realizing the full impact of these leaked exit poll numbers on the political discourse of the day"
talemyn
11-06-04, 12:24 AM
Originally posted by Lemondrop
If you rely on more than US news it is easy to see how the events unfolded .
If your in a state reading about a goat and it's not on the list of areas to be attacked ......
Now , does the secret service wisk you away when your told the country is under attack ?
. . .
We are being led to slaughter like sheep , lined up and given our daily dose of mis-information . We are all nothing more than Corporate Slaves , just some of us have a easy time figuring it out and others resist and believe the corrupt system that keeps us in check . You've inspired me . . . my latest creation - - - > http://www.mindspring.com/~boycekb/images/Smilies/TinFoilHat.gif
kvrdave
11-06-04, 12:30 AM
:lol:
You wield powerful magic. I fear the day it is used against me.
wmansir
11-06-04, 03:05 AM
Dick Morris thinks (http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/31590.htm) this years exit polls were the worst he has ever seen. He's sure there was some kind of hanky panky going on (though sadly, for him, hookers were probably not involved) and thinks there should be an investigation.
That an exit poll is always right is an axiom of politics. It is easier to assume that a compass is not pointing north than to assume that an exit poll is incorrect. It takes a deliberate act of fraud and bias to get an exit poll wrong. Since the variables of whether or not a person will actually vote are eliminated in exit polling, it is like peeking at the answer before taking the test.
But these exit polls were wrong. And the fact that they were so totally, disastrously wrong is a national scandal. There should be a national investigation to unearth the story behind the bias.
Conspiracy theory from the other side, other than bias by the poll takers: MoveOn, etc, found out which polling places were going to be polled and encouraged Kerry supporters to swarm those polling stations to inflate Kerry support.
If true, it would seem fairly easy to discover since it would involve the co-ordination of several hundred people at least.
OldDude
11-06-04, 07:22 AM
I guess I didn't see this thread, but I posted about the same comment in another thread.
On Wednesday's NBC Nightly News, Stone Phillips did a segment on the exit poll error issue. Not saying he is right as I haven't investigated further, but his words:
The early exit polls were way off. The demographics of the early voters and how they voted was significantly different (but they don't understand why) from the total day exit poll. The total day exit polls were very accurate.
Although he didn't say it, obviously if you poll all day and wait 'til the poll closes to report the number, you are not very far ahead of the official count. I imagine they will have to understand how the early voter differs from the total sample and use stratified samples.
Please return to your "tin foil hat" theories about how the early polls prove the election was rigged. -smile-
Buy: