Box Office - Friday (October 1) Estimates
10-02-04, 02:22 PM
#1
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Box Office - Friday (October 1) Estimates
1 SHARK TALE 4,016 $12,500,000 -- / $3,113
$12,500,000 / 1
2 LADDER 49 3,260 $7,400,000 -- / $2,270
$7,400,000 / 1
3 THE FORGOTTEN 3,144 $3,800,000 240.1% / $1,209
$30,065,000 / 8
4 SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW 2,721 $1,000,000 165.1% / $368
$28,312,000 / 15
5 SHAUN OF THE DEAD 645 $750,000 200% / $1,163
$5,202,000 / 8
6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED 408 $720,000 -- / $1,765
$720,000 / 1
7 MR. 3000 2,239 $690,000 175.6% / $308
$17,265,000 / 15
8 FIRST DAUGHTER 2,280 $620,000 189.3% / $272
$5,587,000 / 8
9 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE 1,986 $600,000 105.4% / $302
$45,317,000 / 22
10 CELLULAR 2,020 $560,000 130.5% / $277
$26,703,000 / 22
11 WIMBLEDON 1,706 $550,000 145.2% / $322
$13,649,000 / 15
$12,500,000 / 1
2 LADDER 49 3,260 $7,400,000 -- / $2,270
$7,400,000 / 1
3 THE FORGOTTEN 3,144 $3,800,000 240.1% / $1,209
$30,065,000 / 8
4 SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW 2,721 $1,000,000 165.1% / $368
$28,312,000 / 15
5 SHAUN OF THE DEAD 645 $750,000 200% / $1,163
$5,202,000 / 8
6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED 408 $720,000 -- / $1,765
$720,000 / 1
7 MR. 3000 2,239 $690,000 175.6% / $308
$17,265,000 / 15
8 FIRST DAUGHTER 2,280 $620,000 189.3% / $272
$5,587,000 / 8
9 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE 1,986 $600,000 105.4% / $302
$45,317,000 / 22
10 CELLULAR 2,020 $560,000 130.5% / $277
$26,703,000 / 22
11 WIMBLEDON 1,706 $550,000 145.2% / $322
$13,649,000 / 15
10-02-04, 03:24 PM
#2
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Shark Tale is not doing nowhere as well as a lot of people thought that it would (not me...I shorted it on HSX 
), and Ladder 49 is doing better.
Looks like The Forgotten is going to have a massive second week decline, probably because of all of the bad word of mouth (I know that I have done my share!).
), and Ladder 49 is doing better. Looks like The Forgotten is going to have a massive second week decline, probably because of all of the bad word of mouth (I know that I have done my share!).
10-02-04, 03:33 PM
#3
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Thread Starter
I shorted Shark Tale as well. It'll probably end up with $40-45 mil with the Saturday/Sunday bump that family films get, but it's still a good short either way.
Shaun of the Dead is holding up nicely. Woman, Thou Art Loosed kinda came out of nowhere. I hadn't even heard of it until yesterday.
Shaun of the Dead is holding up nicely. Woman, Thou Art Loosed kinda came out of nowhere. I hadn't even heard of it until yesterday.
10-02-04, 04:23 PM
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Originally posted by movieking
Shark Tale is not doing nowhere as well as a lot of people thought that it would (not me...I shorted it on HSX ), and Ladder 49 is doing better.
Shark Tale is not doing nowhere as well as a lot of people thought that it would (not me...I shorted it on HSX
), and Ladder 49 is doing better.
10-02-04, 05:25 PM
#7
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Originally posted by fumanstan
Shark Tale looks like its doing about right at expectations to me.
Shark Tale looks like its doing about right at expectations to me.
10-02-04, 08:32 PM
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I think people were way overestimating Shark Tale. The 30 plus million opening it's going to do is flat out fantastic for an October opening, and I'm quite shocked any box office analyst expected it to do in the 40s or 50s at all. Has any film opened in October ever that grossed 40 plus million on opening weekend?
So yeah...good numbers overall I'd say. Even though, I don't want to watch it.
So yeah...good numbers overall I'd say. Even though, I don't want to watch it.
10-02-04, 11:19 PM
#9
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The Sat/Sun drop should be interesting, if there is one. The word-of-mouth out there is pretty lousy (I thought it was awful), so next week might have a precipitous drop. Then again, it doesn't have any strong competition until INCREDIBLES next month, so who knows? This'll probably end up a $100 million+ hit, but it won't do Shrek, Nemo, or Monsters Inc numbers. Still, I suppose Dreamworks will be happy. Groin.
10-03-04, 12:11 AM
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Originally posted by Matt Millheiser
The Sat/Sun drop should be interesting, if there is one. The word-of-mouth out there is pretty lousy (I thought it was awful), so next week might have a precipitous drop. Then again, it doesn't have any strong competition until INCREDIBLES next month, so who knows? This'll probably end up a $100 million+ hit, but it won't do Shrek, Nemo, or Monsters Inc numbers. Still, I suppose Dreamworks will be happy. Groin.
The Sat/Sun drop should be interesting, if there is one. The word-of-mouth out there is pretty lousy (I thought it was awful), so next week might have a precipitous drop. Then again, it doesn't have any strong competition until INCREDIBLES next month, so who knows? This'll probably end up a $100 million+ hit, but it won't do Shrek, Nemo, or Monsters Inc numbers. Still, I suppose Dreamworks will be happy. Groin.
10-03-04, 02:09 PM
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What is bugging me is will Shark Tale take 50% drops every weekend from here on out, or will the drops be less? If one thinks about it, there's really no films coming out that will "dominate" the box office until The Incredibles. Come on, just look at the major mainstream releases coming out in the next few weeks prior to the goliath that will be PIXAR's next film.
Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.
In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.
Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.
Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.
In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.
Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.
10-03-04, 02:44 PM
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Apparently I was in a coma this past week. I return to the forum and there’s all this SHARK TALE FUCKING SUCKS! And DEATH TO CG ANIMATION! talk… Wow.
TAXI has huge buzz. Fox even moved it up a couple of days to grease the wheels. I see it doing well.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, on the other hand, has nobody talking about it. Nobody.
SHALL WE DANCE, “long delayed?” It went from July to October, which was a spectacular move on Miramax’s part. See the film with an audience and you’ll see a big hit in the making. Personally, I thought it stunk. But the audience I caught the film with almost rioted they were having so much fun.
RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.
And yes, SHARK TALE DVD sales will be "out-fucking-standing." No doubt.
I’ll give you credit Chmiel, you certainly put your balls out there. Where these opinions come from, I don’t want to know. Put you have conviction.
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
What is bugging me is will Shark Tale take 50% drops every weekend from here on out, or will the drops be less? If one thinks about it, there's really no films coming out that will "dominate" the box office until The Incredibles. Come on, just look at the major mainstream releases coming out in the next few weeks prior to the goliath that will be PIXAR's next film.
Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.
In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.
Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.
What is bugging me is will Shark Tale take 50% drops every weekend from here on out, or will the drops be less? If one thinks about it, there's really no films coming out that will "dominate" the box office until The Incredibles. Come on, just look at the major mainstream releases coming out in the next few weeks prior to the goliath that will be PIXAR's next film.
Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.
In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.
Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.
TAXI has huge buzz. Fox even moved it up a couple of days to grease the wheels. I see it doing well.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, on the other hand, has nobody talking about it. Nobody.
SHALL WE DANCE, “long delayed?” It went from July to October, which was a spectacular move on Miramax’s part. See the film with an audience and you’ll see a big hit in the making. Personally, I thought it stunk. But the audience I caught the film with almost rioted they were having so much fun.
RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.
And yes, SHARK TALE DVD sales will be "out-fucking-standing." No doubt.
I’ll give you credit Chmiel, you certainly put your balls out there. Where these opinions come from, I don’t want to know. Put you have conviction.
Last edited by scott shelton; 10-05-04 at 11:43 AM.
10-03-04, 03:53 PM
#19
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RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.
Friday Night Lights has been getting good words from mostly everyone who has seen it. It also helps that similar films like Varsity Blues, Remember the Titans, and Miracle have all made bank at the box office; so I can see this one at least making $50-60 million.
Taxi, while being promoted since June, I don't think it'll do that well during it's theatrical release. I suspect something similar to the box office gross of Fox's The Transporter than being something huge. I see a lot of DVD rentals/sales, but not a great run in the box office.
And yes, Shall We Dance was long delayed. Not MGM long delayed (Wicker Park), but I've been seeing trailers for it since January. I don't think the film will do that will. The only audience it will connect with are females. Men are not going to go see the flick. Hopefully it'll tank like Vanessa Williams' Dance With Me.
10-03-04, 08:51 PM
#21
Weekend Estimates:
1 SHARK TALE $49,100,000 NEW $49,100,000
2 LADDER 49 $22,785,000 NEW $22,785,000
3 THE FORGOTTEN $12,000,000 -43% $38,265,000
4 SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW $3,375,000 -49% $30,687,000
5 MR. 3000 $2,601,000 -49% $19,176,000
6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED $2,500,000 NEW $2,500,000
7 SHAUN OF THE DEAD $2,431,000 -27% $6,883,000
8 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE $2,300,000 -43% $47,017,000
9 FIRST DAUGHTER $2,150,000 -46% $7,117,000
10 CELLULAR $2,025,000 -44% $28,168,000
Looks like Shark Tale had huge Sat-Sun increases. That's the highest October opening ever.
1 SHARK TALE $49,100,000 NEW $49,100,000
2 LADDER 49 $22,785,000 NEW $22,785,000
3 THE FORGOTTEN $12,000,000 -43% $38,265,000
4 SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW $3,375,000 -49% $30,687,000
5 MR. 3000 $2,601,000 -49% $19,176,000
6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED $2,500,000 NEW $2,500,000
7 SHAUN OF THE DEAD $2,431,000 -27% $6,883,000
8 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE $2,300,000 -43% $47,017,000
9 FIRST DAUGHTER $2,150,000 -46% $7,117,000
10 CELLULAR $2,025,000 -44% $28,168,000
Looks like Shark Tale had huge Sat-Sun increases. That's the highest October opening ever.
10-03-04, 09:25 PM
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Originally posted by MahatmaPetey
damn...i was hoping I Heart Huckabees would get $70 million this weekend
damn...i was hoping I Heart Huckabees would get $70 million this weekend
10-04-04, 01:20 AM
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Originally posted by MahatmaPetey
the audience i saw it with would disagree with you about it being unfunny and boring.
the audience i saw it with would disagree with you about it being unfunny and boring.
I found it boring. I found that they were just tossing out ideas and phrases out to sound smart and witty, but it failed FOR ME on all those aspects. The least it could do is be funny. It wasn't funny.
I found myself only enjoying the eye candy that Watts brought to the table and everything else felt like it was a waste of two hours.
While your audiance may have loved it, or at the very least, that is how you viewed it with your rose colored glasses. The audiance I saw it with didn't have many nice words to say about it as I over heard walking out. It wasn't something I liked and I do tend to be very open for films. Well generally.
This film will not be a hit with the masses. Now looking at the ranking. it's about a 67% at rotten tomatoes. This isn't showing really much one way or another. If anything it shows that this film is getting a lot of mixed reviews. So it's pretty safe to assume that it will be a hit or miss.
For me, it was a huge miss.