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DRG
10-02-04, 02:22 PM
1 SHARK TALE 4,016 $12,500,000 -- / $3,113
$12,500,000 / 1

2 LADDER 49 3,260 $7,400,000 -- / $2,270
$7,400,000 / 1

3 THE FORGOTTEN 3,144 $3,800,000 240.1% / $1,209
$30,065,000 / 8

4 SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW 2,721 $1,000,000 165.1% / $368
$28,312,000 / 15

5 SHAUN OF THE DEAD 645 $750,000 200% / $1,163
$5,202,000 / 8

6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED 408 $720,000 -- / $1,765
$720,000 / 1

7 MR. 3000 2,239 $690,000 175.6% / $308
$17,265,000 / 15

8 FIRST DAUGHTER 2,280 $620,000 189.3% / $272
$5,587,000 / 8

9 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE 1,986 $600,000 105.4% / $302
$45,317,000 / 22

10 CELLULAR 2,020 $560,000 130.5% / $277
$26,703,000 / 22

11 WIMBLEDON 1,706 $550,000 145.2% / $322
$13,649,000 / 15

movieking
10-02-04, 03:24 PM
Shark Tale is not doing nowhere as well as a lot of people thought that it would (not me...I shorted it on HSX :) ), and Ladder 49 is doing better.

Looks like The Forgotten is going to have a massive second week decline, probably because of all of the bad word of mouth (I know that I have done my share!).

DRG
10-02-04, 03:33 PM
I shorted Shark Tale as well. It'll probably end up with $40-45 mil with the Saturday/Sunday bump that family films get, but it's still a good short either way.

Shaun of the Dead is holding up nicely. Woman, Thou Art Loosed kinda came out of nowhere. I hadn't even heard of it until yesterday.

NitroJMS
10-02-04, 04:23 PM
Originally posted by movieking
Shark Tale is not doing nowhere as well as a lot of people thought that it would (not me...I shorted it on HSX :) ), and Ladder 49 is doing better.

Does that mean Shark Tale is performing strongly?

fumanstan
10-02-04, 05:05 PM
Shark Tale looks like its doing about right at expectations to me.

Mr.Blonde510
10-02-04, 05:23 PM
Good for both openers, but unlike other animated films, Shark Tale will drop big next week.

movieking
10-02-04, 05:25 PM
Originally posted by fumanstan
Shark Tale looks like its doing about right at expectations to me.

Depends on your expectations. I generally look at the strike price of HSX, as well as the stock price. The strike price was $60M, and the stock price was between $50M and $55M the last time I checked.

jaeufraser
10-02-04, 08:32 PM
I think people were way overestimating Shark Tale. The 30 plus million opening it's going to do is flat out fantastic for an October opening, and I'm quite shocked any box office analyst expected it to do in the 40s or 50s at all. Has any film opened in October ever that grossed 40 plus million on opening weekend?

So yeah...good numbers overall I'd say. Even though, I don't want to watch it.

Hokeyboy
10-02-04, 11:19 PM
The Sat/Sun drop should be interesting, if there is one. The word-of-mouth out there is pretty lousy (I thought it was awful), so next week might have a precipitous drop. Then again, it doesn't have any strong competition until INCREDIBLES next month, so who knows? This'll probably end up a $100 million+ hit, but it won't do Shrek, Nemo, or Monsters Inc numbers. Still, I suppose Dreamworks will be happy. Groin.

Mr.Blonde510
10-03-04, 12:11 AM
Originally posted by Matt Millheiser
The Sat/Sun drop should be interesting, if there is one. The word-of-mouth out there is pretty lousy (I thought it was awful), so next week might have a precipitous drop. Then again, it doesn't have any strong competition until INCREDIBLES next month, so who knows? This'll probably end up a $100 million+ hit, but it won't do Shrek, Nemo, or Monsters Inc numbers. Still, I suppose Dreamworks will be happy. Groin.

There wont be a drop on Saturday, if it performs anything like other animated kid flicks, it should have a hefty increase.

jaeufraser
10-03-04, 12:27 AM
Yeah, for some reason I don't think WOM is going to kill this movie. It won't be pulling in massive numbers, but it should be able to continue along to a decent gross.

movieking
10-03-04, 01:45 PM
It ended up with almost $50, and a very slight drop on HSX, so it must have held and improved on its Friday night audience.

Matthew Chmiel
10-03-04, 02:09 PM
What is bugging me is will Shark Tale take 50% drops every weekend from here on out, or will the drops be less? If one thinks about it, there's really no films coming out that will "dominate" the box office until The Incredibles. Come on, just look at the major mainstream releases coming out in the next few weeks prior to the goliath that will be PIXAR's next film.

Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.

In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.

Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.

The Antipodean
10-03-04, 02:41 PM
What the hell is "Woman Thou Art Loosed?"

scott shelton
10-03-04, 02:44 PM
Apparently I was in a coma this past week. I return to the forum and there’s all this SHARK TALE FUCKING SUCKS! And DEATH TO CG ANIMATION! talk… Wow.


Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
What is bugging me is will Shark Tale take 50% drops every weekend from here on out, or will the drops be less? If one thinks about it, there's really no films coming out that will "dominate" the box office until The Incredibles. Come on, just look at the major mainstream releases coming out in the next few weeks prior to the goliath that will be PIXAR's next film.

Taxi will make some money, but I don't think it'll turn profit.
Friday Night Lights could go either way, but I see it being profitable.
Raise Your Voice will be dead on arrival.
Shall We Dance was long delayed and everyone hates JLO and Richard Gere.
I honestly have no clue how Team America will preform.
The Grudge will make profit because it's being released at Halloween.
Surviving Christmas might be a sleeper hit, could go either way.
Jude Law is not on a roll currently, so I can see Alfie tanking.

In that list, there is not one family film with the exception of Raise Your Voice. But Raise Your Voice is only geared toward pre-teen girls. So that leaves Shark Tale being the only film that appears to everyone in a family. I believe Shark Tale will end up with a domestic total around the range of $135 million. $150 million if it's lucky.

Unless the DVD sales are out-fucking-standing, I don't think the world will be be graced with a Shark Tale 2. I believe all the major studios learned their lesson from the barrage of terrible sequels in 2003.



TAXI has huge buzz. Fox even moved it up a couple of days to grease the wheels. I see it doing well.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, on the other hand, has nobody talking about it. Nobody.

SHALL WE DANCE, “long delayed?” It went from July to October, which was a spectacular move on Miramax’s part. See the film with an audience and you’ll see a big hit in the making. Personally, I thought it stunk. But the audience I caught the film with almost rioted they were having so much fun.

RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.

And yes, SHARK TALE DVD sales will be "out-fucking-standing." No doubt.

I’ll give you credit Chmiel, you certainly put your balls out there. Where these opinions come from, I don’t want to know. Put you have conviction.

Mr.Blonde510
10-03-04, 02:48 PM
Wheres this huge buzz for Taxi and good reviews?

Friday Night Lights is the one with great early reviews and some good buzz, atleast from what I heard.

scott shelton
10-03-04, 02:52 PM
Originally posted by Sierra Disc
What the hell is "Woman Thou Art Loosed?"

Regional release, based on a self-help book.

jaeufraser
10-03-04, 03:44 PM
Impressive numbers for Shark Tale. I didn't think it'd be able to do that much, nonetheless big numbers I'm sure Dreamworks is happy.

Matthew Chmiel
10-03-04, 03:53 PM
RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.
Warner Brothers promoted Cinderella Story months prior to it's release. Hell, there was even a tie-in with Denny's to promote Duff's summer film. But as of now, New Line has done nothing to promote Raise Your Voice to a mass audience. The only promotion I have seen for the film is a little featurette during Century Theaters' Twenty-esque ripoff. The film will tank faster than the Olsen Twins' New York Minute... mark my words...

Friday Night Lights has been getting good words from mostly everyone who has seen it. It also helps that similar films like Varsity Blues, Remember the Titans, and Miracle have all made bank at the box office; so I can see this one at least making $50-60 million.

Taxi, while being promoted since June, I don't think it'll do that well during it's theatrical release. I suspect something similar to the box office gross of Fox's The Transporter than being something huge. I see a lot of DVD rentals/sales, but not a great run in the box office.

And yes, Shall We Dance was long delayed. Not MGM long delayed (Wicker Park), but I've been seeing trailers for it since January. I don't think the film will do that will. The only audience it will connect with are females. Men are not going to go see the flick. Hopefully it'll tank like Vanessa Williams' Dance With Me.

MahatmaPetey
10-03-04, 07:58 PM
damn...i was hoping I Heart Huckabees would get $70 million this weekend :(

matome
10-03-04, 08:51 PM
<b>Weekend Estimates:

1 SHARK TALE $49,100,000 NEW $49,100,000
2 LADDER 49 $22,785,000 NEW $22,785,000
3 THE FORGOTTEN $12,000,000 -43% $38,265,000
4 SKY CAPTAIN & THE WORLD OF TOMORROW $3,375,000 -49% $30,687,000
5 MR. 3000 $2,601,000 -49% $19,176,000
6 WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED $2,500,000 NEW $2,500,000
7 SHAUN OF THE DEAD $2,431,000 -27% $6,883,000
8 RESIDENT EVIL: APOCALYPSE $2,300,000 -43% $47,017,000
9 FIRST DAUGHTER $2,150,000 -46% $7,117,000
10 CELLULAR $2,025,000 -44% $28,168,000
</b>

Looks like <i>Shark Tale</i> had huge Sat-Sun increases. That's the highest October opening ever.

Jackskeleton
10-03-04, 09:25 PM
Originally posted by MahatmaPetey
damn...i was hoping I Heart Huckabees would get $70 million this weekend :(

ugh, god no. the movie wasn't very good. I don't care if you call it an existentialist comedy. That may cover the whole pointless factor. But I don't read anything in the title that says it was going to be unfunny and boring.

MahatmaPetey
10-03-04, 11:10 PM
the audience i saw it with would disagree with you about it being unfunny and boring.

Jackskeleton
10-04-04, 01:20 AM
Originally posted by MahatmaPetey
the audience i saw it with would disagree with you about it being unfunny and boring.

Really, I couldn't give a shit about what the audiance you saw it with thought. I didn't like it. That is MY opinion on it.

I found it boring. I found that they were just tossing out ideas and phrases out to sound smart and witty, but it failed FOR ME on all those aspects. The least it could do is be funny. It wasn't funny.

I found myself only enjoying the eye candy that Watts brought to the table and everything else felt like it was a waste of two hours.

While your audiance may have loved it, or at the very least, that is how you viewed it with your rose colored glasses. The audiance I saw it with didn't have many nice words to say about it as I over heard walking out. It wasn't something I liked and I do tend to be very open for films. Well generally.

This film will not be a hit with the masses. Now looking at the ranking. it's about a 67% at rotten tomatoes. This isn't showing really much one way or another. If anything it shows that this film is getting a lot of mixed reviews. So it's pretty safe to assume that it will be a hit or miss.

For me, it was a huge miss.

Seantn
10-04-04, 09:37 AM
AudiEnce.

Matthew Chmiel
10-04-04, 10:02 AM
If anything it shows that this film is getting a lot of mixed reviews.
Mixed reviews would mean 50% at Rotten Tomatoes (half like it, half hate it).

67% means it's mostly pulling in positive reviews. Not a lot of positive reviews to warrant it certified fresh (75%), but enough to determine it's getting a lot of positive reviews.

jaeufraser
10-04-04, 11:43 AM
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
Mixed reviews would mean 50% at Rotten Tomatoes (half like it, half hate it).

67% means it's mostly pulling in positive reviews. Not a lot of positive reviews to warrant it certified fresh (75%), but enough to determine it's getting a lot of positive reviews.

I'm pretty sure Huckabees is a very polarizing film, and not the type of film that's going to appeal to a mainstream audience, despite it's all star cast.

In general the reviews have been positive and by those who like this film they seem to really like the film, so it obviously works for some people. I'll have to check it out...I loved Russell's Three Kings, was so so on Flirting with Disaster. Granted, I don't think any film should star Tea Leoni but that's me.

Jackskeleton
10-04-04, 03:10 PM
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
Mixed reviews would mean 50% at Rotten Tomatoes (half like it, half hate it).

67% means it's mostly pulling in positive reviews. Not a lot of positive reviews to warrant it certified fresh (75%), but enough to determine it's getting a lot of positive reviews.

Well considering Rotten tomatoes is open to just about any reviewing site around, lets then go to the Cream of the crop. You know, those reviewers that do matter in the long run. In that section the film is being graded as a 50% fresh. Would you look at that.. MIXED REVIEWS. -rolleyes-

So while the general rate of those E-site reviewers is higher. That is to be expected since Online reviewers are more into the indie scene while those writing for papers would most likely hit towards a general audiance market.

Like I said, this film will have those who love it and those like me who hated it. It's not going to be a smash hit towards the general audiance and will not hit mainstream well considering its theater count.

mrpayroll
10-04-04, 03:30 PM
<TABLE BORDER> <TH COLSPAN=12> <b>Final Figures for Weekend Oct 1 - 3, 2004</b> </TH>
<TR> </TH> <TH> TW </TH> <TH> LW </TH> <TH> Title </TH> <TH> Studio </TH> <TH> Weekend Gross </TH> <TH> % Change </TH> <TH> Theater Count </TH> <TH> Change </TH> <TH> Average </TH> <TH> Total Gross </TH> <TH> Cost* </TH> <TH> Week # </TH> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> N </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Shark Tale </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> DW </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $47,604,606 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4,016 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $11,853 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $47,604,606 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $75 / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> N </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Ladder 49 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> BV </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $22,088,204 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3,260 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $6,775 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $22,088,204 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> The Forgotten </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> SonR </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $11,820,733 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -43.80% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3,144 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 40 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,759 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $38,085,523 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $42 / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Par. </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,278,417 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -50.80% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,721 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -449 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $1,204 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $30,590,216 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $70 / $35 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Mr. 3000 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> BV </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,526,420 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -50.40% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,239 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -497 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $1,128 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $19,101,298 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Shaun of the Dead </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Focus </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,481,020 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -25.50% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 645 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 38 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,846 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $6,933,441 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Resident Evil: Apocalypse </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> SGem </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,310,267 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -42.80% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1,986 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -850 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $1,163 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $47,027,651 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $45 / $25 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 8 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> N </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Woman, Thou Art Loosed </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Magn. </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,225,000 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 408 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $5,453 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,225,000 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> First Daughter </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Fox </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,158,637 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -46.10% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,280 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 20 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $946 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $7,125,371 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> - / - </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 10 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> Cellular </TD> <TD ALIGN = left> NL </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,014,074 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -45% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,020 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -743 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $997 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $28,157,508 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $25 / $20 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> </TR>
</TABLE>


NOTE: Woman, Thou Art Loosed is revised but still an estimate


Chris

jaeufraser
10-04-04, 04:45 PM
Too bad Sky Captain did so poorly, I really enjoyed that. I have heard though, that it's actual production budget is way overstated, and is more in the range of 40 million dollars. So I've heard, which means it's not that bad.

Matthew Chmiel
10-04-04, 06:22 PM
You know, those reviewers that do matter in the long run.Wait, you're saying that reviewers actually do matter?

mookyman
10-04-04, 06:26 PM
You're entitled to your opinion, Jack. But keep in mind that Huckabee's hasn't opened wide yet, and there are still critics that haven't weighed in. I mean, you're singling out the cream of the crop, but that only contains three reviewers that mean anything to me (thumbs up from Peter Travers and J. Hoberman, thumbs down from Owen Gleiberman).

Jackskeleton
10-04-04, 07:05 PM
I've always maintained that it was my opinion. When people point out that there is a whole audience that disagrees with me then I feel the need to take a stand.

Not to mention I've maintained a level that it will be a split vote and it is the type of film that is either going to be a love it or hate it level. You aren't going to leave the theater with a middle ground.

I didn't enjoy the film and I felt it missed its mark by a great deal.

Wait, you're saying that reviewers actually do matter?

What I'm saying is that there are some reviewers that you come to trust. While other reviews such as from indiefilmsrock.com and no name sites like that factor into the rating, but you will never hear their name again. the cream of the crop points out those that do have some stake to claim here.


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