Good NYTimes article on the HD-on-DVD format war
09-20-04, 02:59 PM
#1
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Good NYTimes article on the HD-on-DVD format war
Bolded for emphasis:
This sounds familiar:
Bluray: new, complex and expensive technology that is probably technically superior to competitors but less extensible and more monopolistically controlled.
-vs-
HD-DVD- evolutionary improvement of existing technology that is highly extensible across a wide variety of companies and technology but less sophisticated.
I think HD-DVD is going to win.
September 20, 2004
NEW ECONOMY
Competing for DVD Supremacy
By KEN BELSON
If you thought the battle over videocassette formats - VHS or Betamax - was the technology war to end all others, think again.
Like that legendary fight, the current battle over the format for the next generation of digital videodiscs, which will be able to store six times more data than current DVD's and carry high-definition images, will ultimately determine who will reap the billions to be generated from royalties and the sales of new DVD players.
But beyond that, the contest is about no less than competing visions of how entertainment will be delivered in the coming decades. It is also a vivid display of competition in an age when devices seem destined to turn quickly into cheap commodities.
The DVD format war between two powerful camps intensified last week when a group of investors led by Sony agreed to buy Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, a move that many say will give Sony another supporter in Hollywood for adopting Blu-ray, the new DVD technology it is developing with a coalition of partners. That move comes as the big electronics and computer companies and movie studios, which have been coyly neutral on this question for years, start to pick sides
The rivalry between the competing coalitions - Blu-ray, led by Sony and relying heavily on Sony technology, and the HD-DVD format group using technology from its leaders, Toshiba and NEC - is turning into a fight over whether the television or the computer will dominate the living room.
The battle lines appear clear enough. On the Blu-ray side are mainly consumer electronics companies like Panasonic, Samsung and Sharp that have a strong interest in making sure the television set remains the main device for watching movies, playing video games and so on. Many of those companies also have existing relationships with Sony. Samsung, for instance, is building a liquid crystal display factory with Sony in Korea.
"Consumers need something to play on their new, high-definition televisions," said Erin Sullivan, the director of planning at Panasonic Hollywood Lab.
Dell and Hewlett-Packard, two giant computer makers, also joined the Blu-ray group this year. They, too, see their future as much in the consumer electronics market as in computers, and have been selling music players, flat panel screens and other devices.
On the other side, Toshiba and NEC are big computer companies that, broadly speaking, see the television as a display monitor that in the future will have a hard drive run by software and be connected to the Internet. In this vision, home servers will let consumers retrieve digital information throughout their homes, with DVD's being viewed on computers as well as on flat panel televisions. They also expect the new DVD discs to sell well to computer users who want to store more pictures, music and data.
The Toshiba and NEC camp also won an important endorsement in July when Microsoft said that its next Windows operating system would be compatible with the HD-DVD format.
"For the Blu-ray group, it is all about entertainment and for Toshiba it's about computers," said Paul O'Donovan, a principal analyst at Dataquest, a research firm.
The two camps are also taking different approaches to developing their formats. Betting that the new DVD players are likely to turn into inexpensive commodities produced by many manufacturers, and that speed to market is crucial, Toshiba and NEC have chosen essentially to upgrade the technology of the current DVD format, which they say would save money and time, rather than start anew. The discs for the HD-DVD format, which store less data than the Blu-ray discs, are also cheaper to produce, according to Toshiba.
"Our concept," said Hisashi Yamada, Toshiba's key engineer in the development of HD-DVD's and the chief engineer and negotiator for the HD-DVD group, "is to extend the current structure of DVD's very naturally, very smoothly."
Sony and the Blu-ray group have taken a different route. They decided to develop a brand new system because, they say, the jump from standard definition to high definition requires a whole new technology, and consumers will be unwilling to pay for something that is just an upgrade of existing technology.
In this way, the Blu-ray group appears to be sticking to Sony's decades-old strategy: selling products for a premium based on exclusive technology. This tactic worked with big hits like Sony's Trinitron television, but it has faltered in recent years.
Indeed, Sony's go-it-alone style is harder to carry out these days as discount retailers like Wal-Mart and competition from Chinese manufacturers drive prices down.
Of course, by teaming up with archrivals like Panasonic to form the Blu-ray Disc Association, Sony has shared its technology and the cost of developing it. But the Blu-ray group, which now counts 13 members, is still viewed as an exclusive bunch trying to create a worldwide standard that they can control. Blu-ray developers say they kept their group small to make it easier to develop the new format, and the association is now trying to share its technology with more companies.
There is another motive, too. In the early 1990's, Sony and Toshiba fought over the formats for the first generation of DVD's. Sony eventually lost that battle. The current fight may be an effort by Sony to extract a certain amount of revenge on Toshiba. Toshiba, of course, would like to build on its corporate success story.
"Sony is also trying to keep as much for itself," said Mr. O'Donovan, who added that Sony was headed into a cul-de-sac by trying to defend proprietary technology.
Toshiba and NEC, by contrast, have sought approval for its format from the DVD Forum, an international standards group of 220 manufacturers, software companies and others, including many from the Blu-ray group. By trying to win over the widest possible audience for its format, the HD-DVD group is acting more like a computer company advocating more open standards.
Toshiba and NEC appear to have an early jump on the Blu-ray group. In July, Toshiba said it would start selling next-generation DVD recorders using its new format next year. Japan's largest distributor of pre-recorded DVD's, Pony Canyon, will also roll out movies in the HD-DVD format along with Toshiba's new machines.
Memory-Tech, a disc manufacturer based in Tokyo, has already produced 250,000 of the new HD-DVD discs in test runs, and says its factory lines can switch easily between DVD's in the current format and the new HD-DVD's. Those new discs are only 10 percent more expensive to make because they use the same material and equipment as the current generation of DVD's.
Although Sony started selling Blu-ray DVD machines last year, those machines initially cost close to $4,000 and can play very little recorded content.
While the electronics and computer makers tussle over the standard, the first users of the next-generation DVD's may in fact be video game console makers.
Sony will likely use Blu-ray technology in the next generation of PlayStation machines, which may be unveiled sometime next year. If Microsoft, the maker of XBox, wants to beat Sony by putting out its new line of consoles first, it may be forced to use HD-DVD technology simply because those discs may be available sooner. More important, Microsoft may be loath to give its rival, Sony, a market for its Blu-ray technology.
NEW ECONOMY
Competing for DVD Supremacy
By KEN BELSON
If you thought the battle over videocassette formats - VHS or Betamax - was the technology war to end all others, think again.
Like that legendary fight, the current battle over the format for the next generation of digital videodiscs, which will be able to store six times more data than current DVD's and carry high-definition images, will ultimately determine who will reap the billions to be generated from royalties and the sales of new DVD players.
But beyond that, the contest is about no less than competing visions of how entertainment will be delivered in the coming decades. It is also a vivid display of competition in an age when devices seem destined to turn quickly into cheap commodities.
The DVD format war between two powerful camps intensified last week when a group of investors led by Sony agreed to buy Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, a move that many say will give Sony another supporter in Hollywood for adopting Blu-ray, the new DVD technology it is developing with a coalition of partners. That move comes as the big electronics and computer companies and movie studios, which have been coyly neutral on this question for years, start to pick sides
The rivalry between the competing coalitions - Blu-ray, led by Sony and relying heavily on Sony technology, and the HD-DVD format group using technology from its leaders, Toshiba and NEC - is turning into a fight over whether the television or the computer will dominate the living room.
The battle lines appear clear enough. On the Blu-ray side are mainly consumer electronics companies like Panasonic, Samsung and Sharp that have a strong interest in making sure the television set remains the main device for watching movies, playing video games and so on. Many of those companies also have existing relationships with Sony. Samsung, for instance, is building a liquid crystal display factory with Sony in Korea.
"Consumers need something to play on their new, high-definition televisions," said Erin Sullivan, the director of planning at Panasonic Hollywood Lab.
Dell and Hewlett-Packard, two giant computer makers, also joined the Blu-ray group this year. They, too, see their future as much in the consumer electronics market as in computers, and have been selling music players, flat panel screens and other devices.
On the other side, Toshiba and NEC are big computer companies that, broadly speaking, see the television as a display monitor that in the future will have a hard drive run by software and be connected to the Internet. In this vision, home servers will let consumers retrieve digital information throughout their homes, with DVD's being viewed on computers as well as on flat panel televisions. They also expect the new DVD discs to sell well to computer users who want to store more pictures, music and data.
The Toshiba and NEC camp also won an important endorsement in July when Microsoft said that its next Windows operating system would be compatible with the HD-DVD format.
"For the Blu-ray group, it is all about entertainment and for Toshiba it's about computers," said Paul O'Donovan, a principal analyst at Dataquest, a research firm.
The two camps are also taking different approaches to developing their formats. Betting that the new DVD players are likely to turn into inexpensive commodities produced by many manufacturers, and that speed to market is crucial, Toshiba and NEC have chosen essentially to upgrade the technology of the current DVD format, which they say would save money and time, rather than start anew. The discs for the HD-DVD format, which store less data than the Blu-ray discs, are also cheaper to produce, according to Toshiba.
"Our concept," said Hisashi Yamada, Toshiba's key engineer in the development of HD-DVD's and the chief engineer and negotiator for the HD-DVD group, "is to extend the current structure of DVD's very naturally, very smoothly."
Sony and the Blu-ray group have taken a different route. They decided to develop a brand new system because, they say, the jump from standard definition to high definition requires a whole new technology, and consumers will be unwilling to pay for something that is just an upgrade of existing technology.
In this way, the Blu-ray group appears to be sticking to Sony's decades-old strategy: selling products for a premium based on exclusive technology. This tactic worked with big hits like Sony's Trinitron television, but it has faltered in recent years.
Indeed, Sony's go-it-alone style is harder to carry out these days as discount retailers like Wal-Mart and competition from Chinese manufacturers drive prices down.
Of course, by teaming up with archrivals like Panasonic to form the Blu-ray Disc Association, Sony has shared its technology and the cost of developing it. But the Blu-ray group, which now counts 13 members, is still viewed as an exclusive bunch trying to create a worldwide standard that they can control. Blu-ray developers say they kept their group small to make it easier to develop the new format, and the association is now trying to share its technology with more companies.
There is another motive, too. In the early 1990's, Sony and Toshiba fought over the formats for the first generation of DVD's. Sony eventually lost that battle. The current fight may be an effort by Sony to extract a certain amount of revenge on Toshiba. Toshiba, of course, would like to build on its corporate success story.
"Sony is also trying to keep as much for itself," said Mr. O'Donovan, who added that Sony was headed into a cul-de-sac by trying to defend proprietary technology.
Toshiba and NEC, by contrast, have sought approval for its format from the DVD Forum, an international standards group of 220 manufacturers, software companies and others, including many from the Blu-ray group. By trying to win over the widest possible audience for its format, the HD-DVD group is acting more like a computer company advocating more open standards.
Toshiba and NEC appear to have an early jump on the Blu-ray group. In July, Toshiba said it would start selling next-generation DVD recorders using its new format next year. Japan's largest distributor of pre-recorded DVD's, Pony Canyon, will also roll out movies in the HD-DVD format along with Toshiba's new machines.
Memory-Tech, a disc manufacturer based in Tokyo, has already produced 250,000 of the new HD-DVD discs in test runs, and says its factory lines can switch easily between DVD's in the current format and the new HD-DVD's. Those new discs are only 10 percent more expensive to make because they use the same material and equipment as the current generation of DVD's.
Although Sony started selling Blu-ray DVD machines last year, those machines initially cost close to $4,000 and can play very little recorded content.
While the electronics and computer makers tussle over the standard, the first users of the next-generation DVD's may in fact be video game console makers.
Sony will likely use Blu-ray technology in the next generation of PlayStation machines, which may be unveiled sometime next year. If Microsoft, the maker of XBox, wants to beat Sony by putting out its new line of consoles first, it may be forced to use HD-DVD technology simply because those discs may be available sooner. More important, Microsoft may be loath to give its rival, Sony, a market for its Blu-ray technology.
Bluray: new, complex and expensive technology that is probably technically superior to competitors but less extensible and more monopolistically controlled.
-vs-
HD-DVD- evolutionary improvement of existing technology that is highly extensible across a wide variety of companies and technology but less sophisticated.
I think HD-DVD is going to win.
09-20-04, 03:45 PM
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Agreed, this was a good post. I think the key to a victory in any 'Format War' will be whether or not I can still play my old DVDs on an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray- I mean, introduction of both technologies is too close to standard DVD.
Whereas the DVD was introduced about 15 years after VHS; these new formats are coming less than 9 years after standard DVD. What technology manufacturers are asking is for consumers to accept another paradigm shift so soon after the VHS-to-DVD shift.
I don't think it will take unless there's an easy way to make the upgrade and still use old tech.
Also, is there a link for this article?
Whereas the DVD was introduced about 15 years after VHS; these new formats are coming less than 9 years after standard DVD. What technology manufacturers are asking is for consumers to accept another paradigm shift so soon after the VHS-to-DVD shift.
I don't think it will take unless there's an easy way to make the upgrade and still use old tech.
Also, is there a link for this article?
09-20-04, 04:22 PM
#4
DVD Talk Hero
Blu-ray is the superior format, but the good money says Sony will fuck it up.
DVD is still a relatively new format, and I think they're trying to rush out a replacement format too quickly. Yes, I know there are lots of people with HD sets chomping at the bit for HD discs, but I think DVD has achieved such a strong market penetration at this point that any new format is going to be struggling to capture a share.
In some ways, I wonder if DVD shouldn't have been a barely successful iterim format between to old analog VHS and HD. It's achieved such a remarkable growth and market penetration that it's going to difficult to roll out a new format when you have so many consumers already invested in the DVD format.
When it comes down to it, which new format will be taking up shelf space in stores? With DVD the "it" format right now, I don't see many stores bothering much with either format.
The thing about DVD is, when it came out, I think the market was ready for a new format. The Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war sounds like something that's being forced on the market by greedy corporations.
I would wager that most people are satisfied with DVD, and don't see the need to upgrade. The very success of the format is because it's being sold at Wal-Mart and Target, which isn't exactly a haven for the gadget freaks that HD appeals to. With all of the money being thrown around these new formats, it's pretty obvious that their respective owners believe their format will be the next big thing, when in reality, at this point in history, I'd say that HD is still a niche market.
DVD is still a relatively new format, and I think they're trying to rush out a replacement format too quickly. Yes, I know there are lots of people with HD sets chomping at the bit for HD discs, but I think DVD has achieved such a strong market penetration at this point that any new format is going to be struggling to capture a share.
In some ways, I wonder if DVD shouldn't have been a barely successful iterim format between to old analog VHS and HD. It's achieved such a remarkable growth and market penetration that it's going to difficult to roll out a new format when you have so many consumers already invested in the DVD format.
When it comes down to it, which new format will be taking up shelf space in stores? With DVD the "it" format right now, I don't see many stores bothering much with either format.
The thing about DVD is, when it came out, I think the market was ready for a new format. The Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war sounds like something that's being forced on the market by greedy corporations.
I would wager that most people are satisfied with DVD, and don't see the need to upgrade. The very success of the format is because it's being sold at Wal-Mart and Target, which isn't exactly a haven for the gadget freaks that HD appeals to. With all of the money being thrown around these new formats, it's pretty obvious that their respective owners believe their format will be the next big thing, when in reality, at this point in history, I'd say that HD is still a niche market.
09-20-04, 04:39 PM
#5
DVD Talk Legend
I'm definitely sitting this one out to someone wins. The formats are very different, so its probably not going to be a situation where one player will play both Blu-Ray and HDDVD (at least not for a long while) and I would hate to get stuck with another betamax situation considering how expensive the players and possibly discs will be in the begining.
HD TVs are still a niche market, so this product definitely will be for several years. Its going to be tough for two technologies to battle in such a small market.
HD TVs are still a niche market, so this product definitely will be for several years. Its going to be tough for two technologies to battle in such a small market.
09-20-04, 04:57 PM
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Its all about the software. Whichever has the best/biggest range of movies to watch will win.
Sony could have the edge if they decide to dump all their titles to HD. Also having all the James Bond films on HD could be a major coup.
Ill still wait till one of them is a dead format before i decide to enter this market
Sony could have the edge if they decide to dump all their titles to HD. Also having all the James Bond films on HD could be a major coup.
Ill still wait till one of them is a dead format before i decide to enter this market
09-20-04, 05:14 PM
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What will decide the winner is the software providers. Now that SONY has purchased MGM that does give them an advantage of having 2 of the major studios.
However if i'm a software provider. My man concern is my cost to bring to market which if I go for HD-DVD is more minimal than to start with BLU-RAY even if prices will fall in line later down the road.
However if i'm a software provider. My man concern is my cost to bring to market which if I go for HD-DVD is more minimal than to start with BLU-RAY even if prices will fall in line later down the road.
09-21-04, 06:30 PM
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Not a surprise that Sony will be using Blu-Ray in the PS3:
http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/6807/S...-PlayStation-3
This could be the advantage that Sony needs. It will put a lot of (relatively) low-priced Blu-Ray players in people's homes.
http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/6807/S...-PlayStation-3
This could be the advantage that Sony needs. It will put a lot of (relatively) low-priced Blu-Ray players in people's homes.
09-21-04, 06:38 PM
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I'm not even going to bother playing this game. I won't support either format until one comes out a clear winner, and if they don't have backward compatibility no way they're getting my money.
It's awfully early for this. Honestly, this change doesn't need to happen for quite a few years, at least until HD hardware becomes a little more affordable and commonplace.
It's awfully early for this. Honestly, this change doesn't need to happen for quite a few years, at least until HD hardware becomes a little more affordable and commonplace.
09-21-04, 06:56 PM
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its all about what takes off i mean we still have sacd and dvd-audio right?id say dvd-audio has a slight lead but still they're not mainstream.i think dvd is going to live a little longer than we expected.
09-21-04, 07:29 PM
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So what does everyone think that the HD DVD players will cost when they are start coming out,i know that whenever anything first comes out(like VHS or dvd players) it is very expensive(500 bucks?) but if sony is gonna put the blue ray in the PS3 you would think that you would be able to buy a cheap HD DVD player right when they are released for under 200 dollars
09-21-04, 08:55 PM
#13
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The PS3 will be $300 most likely. It won't be out until 2006 though. I would imagine we will see players show up on the market next year in the $500 and up range.
