The Ichiro 258 Hit watch

[El Scorcho]

Results after game 126:

1-5, HR

200 Hits total

36 games to go

58 hits to go to break the record

1.611 hits/game average to break the record

[Deftones]

As much as I'd like to see a record broken, I don't think I want Ichiro to break it. And I like the guy, alot.

[Corleone]

Originally posted by Deftones, Esq
As much as I'd like to see a record broken, I don't think I want Ichiro to break it. And I like the guy, alot.

Your just saying that because he is Japanese... right?

[Deftones]

Originally posted by Corleone
Your just saying that because he is Japanese... right?

Not that he's japanese, but rather that he's not a product of the American Baseball system. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy. I just would like to see an American born player have the record. If that makes me racist, then so be it.

[fumanstan]

You're racist :)

Anyway, i hope Ichiro breaks it.

[twikoff]

*checks to see if anyone started a Adam Dunn 200 Strikeout watch thread*

[Canadian Bacon]

rotfl, how bad do the Mariners suck when this is all fans have to hope for? :lol: I hope he breaks it :up:

[kvrdave]

Originally posted by Canadian Bacon
rotfl, how bad do the Mariners suck when this is all fans have to hope for? :lol: I hope he breaks it :up:

Pretty bad this year. I still think there is a little hope that they will have as many losses as Ichiro has hits.

[shizawn]

Go go Ichiro!

[Deftones]

Well, look at the Dbacks. The only thing they have this year is RJ's perfect game.

[devilshalo]

Hope he does it! Ichiro's still one of my favorite players. Too bad he's stuck on a suck ass Mariner's team this year.

[twikoff]

Originally posted by Deftones, Esq
Well, look at the Dbacks. The only thing they have this year is RJ's perfect game.

did I mention i was there in one of the suites for that game? ;)





btw... Ill be back in the same suite for the sept 8th game against the phillies.. if someone wants to place a bet on another perfect game

[Deftones]

Originally posted by twikoff
did I mention i was there in one of the suites for that game? ;)



I hate you, die!!!!! :lol:

[Roto]

I'm going to be pissed if he gets within 3 or 4 of the record after that beanball took him out for a couple games. Nobody really cares about this record (Who is George Sisler?) unless he pulls it off, then we'll start the great asterisk debate of 162 games vs 154.

[JurisIL]

IMO, Ichiro is one of the best players in baseball.

Hits for huge average, steals bases, and has a ROCKET arm!

As for the record.....five words:

Ain't gonna happen this season.

[The Cow]

Originally posted by twikoff
*checks to see if anyone started a Adam Dunn 200 Strikeout watch thread*
Might be a good thread to start to see if either hits the "mark"...
Dunn's "suck but don't care"
Ichiro's "do we care?"
:)
Something to bump for a few weeks anyway...

MLB will need help now that....
START THE DAMN GAMES!!!

are finally on! :up:

[El Scorcho]

2-4 Friday

202 hits total

35 games to go.

[Da Thrilla]

He can do it! :banana:

[fumanstan]

1/4 in the first game of a double header
3/6 in the second

206 hits now

[Abranut]

Go, Ichiro, Go!

[Roto]

3/4 today with a homerun. unreal
So 209 hits. 49 hits and 32 games to go.
He only has to hit .333 if he can average 4.5 ABs per game to break the record. Currently he is hitting .459 since the all star break and .394 since May 1st.

[shizawn]

3 for 4 today to reach 209 hits. He passed his 2002 total (208) and is only 3 away from last year's total.

Still got a month to go!

[El Scorcho]

The guy is scary to watch. If he hits it anywhere in the infield and not directly at somebody, he's going to beat it out.

[LurkerDan]

Originally posted by Roto
(Who is George Sisler?) A decaying hall of famer...

[B.A.]

Originally posted by Roto
Nobody really cares about this record (Who is George Sisler?) Sisler is one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. The guy played in 15 seasons was only 188 hits shy of 3000. Pretty damn impressive if you ask me.

Sisler's Stats (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats_historical/mlb_individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=122280)

[LurkerDan]

Originally posted by B.A.
Sisler is one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. The guy played in 15 seasons was only 188 hits shy of 3000. Pretty damn impressive if you ask me.

Sisler's Stats (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats_historical/mlb_individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=122280) Like I said, a decaying hall of famer. :)

[El Scorcho]

See, I hate this record (and all hitting records before, say, 1950) because they played in an era where pitchers didnt have specialty pitches, they typically would only see two pitchers -- if that -- in any given game, etc.

Sisler holds the record, fine. But who holds the season hits record since 1950?

[Roto]

There were also a couple good points I heard brought up a couple weeks ago on the radio; you're talking about Negro League days and a lot less travel than what teams do today, especially the Mariners.

The only thing that's going to stop him from breaking the record now is the fact that he has to face the red hot AL West teams for most of the way. Fortunately Oakland is the only one with really scary pitching.

[B.A.]

Originally posted by El Scorcho
See, I hate this record (and all hitting records before, say, 1950) because they played in an era where pitchers didnt have specialty pitches, they typically would only see two pitchers -- if that -- in any given game, etc.

Sisler holds the record, fine. But who holds the season hits record since 1950? You also have to look at the years he played the game. His first five seasons were in the dark ages, when the ball could be as dark as dirt and they only replaced it four or five times a game. His breakout year was the year they began cracking down on that and an unprecedented era in hitting was born.

Single Season Hits Leaders (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats_historical/mlb_historical_leaders.jsp?Submit=Submit&sortByStat=H&baseballScope=mlb&statType=1&timeFrame=3&timeSubFrame=4&timeSubFrame=4)

Look how high up Ichiro is on that list.

[fumanstan]

Originally posted by B.A.
You also have to look at the years he played the game. His first five seasons were in the dark ages, when the ball could be as dark as dirt and they only replaced it four or five times a game. His breakout year was the year they began cracking down on that and an unprecedented era in hitting was born.

Single Season Hits Leaders (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats_historical/mlb_historical_leaders.jsp?Submit=Submit&sortByStat=H&baseballScope=mlb&statType=1&timeFrame=3&timeSubFrame=4&timeSubFrame=4)

Look how high up Ichiro is on that list.

Wow, look at the years of everyone ahead of Ichiro. He's the only player in the top 10 after 1930.

Go Ichiro :up:

[B.A.]

Looking at his stats and his ability - you think the guy would have more doubles.

[El Scorcho]

Post 1950:

1. Ichiro -- 242 (2001)
2. Boggs -- 240 (1985)
3. Erstad -- 240 (2000)
4. Carew -- 239 (1977)
5. Mattingly -- 238 (1986)
6. Puckett -- 234 (1988)

The game has changed so much since the pre-1950 days when it comes to hitting. I hate comparing records from pre-1950 to post-1950.

[kvrdave]

Originally posted by El Scorcho
Post 1950:

1. Ichiro -- 242 (2001)
2. Boggs -- 240 (1985)
3. Erstad -- 240 (2000)
4. Carew -- 239 (1977)
5. Mattingly -- 238 (1986)
6. Puckett -- 234 (1988)

The game has changed so much since the pre-1950 days when it comes to hitting. I hate comparing records from pre-1950 to post-1950.

Mighty impressive company to be keeping.

[El Scorcho]

Update:

8/27 (Game 127) - 2 for 4
8/28 (Game 128) - 1 for 4
8/28 (Game 129) - 3 for 6
8/29 (Game 130) - 3 for 4

209 hits total. 32 games to go. 49 hits to go. 1.53 hits per game avg. needed (162 game record)

And for asterisk buffs, 2.04 hits per game needed to break the record in 154 games.

More fun with stats:

* Gone hitless in only 5 games since the All-Star Break
* Hitting .459 since All-Star Break
* Hit .432 in July, .457 in August
* Has THREE 50-hit months this season (May, Jul, Aug) -- he is the first player *ever* to do this

[El Scorcho]

And just for fun:

He'd be hitting .400 if he had 18 more hits this season. Thats 9 more hits during each of his shitty months (april and June -- he batted .255 and .274).

Instead of batting .255 and .274, if he hit .343 and .358 he'd be at .400 right now.

Assuming 120 more at-bats this season, he'd need to hit 275 hits to be a .400 hitter after its all said and done. Which means a 66-for-120 (.550) clip from here on out.

[Dabaomb]

Scorcho, your a Mariners fan? That's why you hate the Yankees :lol:

But I must admit, what Ichiro is doin' is mighty impressive. I personally hope that he breaks the record.

[chrisih8u]

Im glad we didnt have to put up with "OH ICHIRO YOU ARE MAGNIFICENT!" 209 times.

[El Scorcho]

Yeah, Seattle is my #2 team (locality).

Yeah, the magnificent line doesnt really go well with base hits. It's hard to call a slow roller to short that he beats out "magnificent".

[fumanstan]

2/4 so far today... maybe it'll go into extra innings so he'll get more at bats :)

Update: 3/5 now. Go Ichiro Go!

[shizawn]

56 hits in August. Most in a month since 1936.

[IMRICKJAMES]

The greatest thing about this run Ichiro is on lately is the horrible start of the season he had. Usually when good players have a bad first month or so they end the year just doing ok, not their best not horrible, see A-Rod...good numbers but not great for him. And with a month to go Ichiro has raised the average all the way to 370. If it werent for this bad start would we be having an Ichiro .400 Watch thread?

[Maquis]

So the Mariners have 31 games left, and Ichiro needs 46 hits to break the record... Still a tough task, but after 56 hits in August, it's very possible. This will be fun to watch.

[El Scorcho]

Originally posted by IMRICKJAMES
The greatest thing about this run Ichiro is on lately is the horrible start of the season he had. Usually when good players have a bad first month or so they end the year just doing ok, not their best not horrible, see A-Rod...good numbers but not great for him. And with a month to go Ichiro has raised the average all the way to 370. If it werent for this bad start would we be having an Ichiro .400 Watch thread?

As I said a few days ago:

He'd be hitting .400 if he had 18 more hits this season. Thats 9 more hits during each of his shitty months (april and June -- he batted .255 and .274).

Instead of batting .255 and .274, if he hit .343 and .358 he'd be at .400 right now.

Assuming 120 more at-bats this season, he'd need to hit 275 hits to be a .400 hitter after its all said and done. Which means a 66-for-120 (.550) clip from here on out.

Thats whats most impressive. He had TWO shitty months. And he's still hitting .370.

[shizawn]

2-3 today to bring his total up to 214.

[El Scorcho]

44 to go in 30 games left.

Anyone think he's got a shot at flirting with .400?

Assuming my projections are accurate, he'll need to finish with 275 hits in 687 at bats. He's 214-for-575 right now. So he needs to go 61-for-112 (.544) the rest of the way.

It seems like every night he's putting up 3-for-4s and 2-for-3s. Although two or three 0-for-4s would nix this chance.

[neiname]

No way he gets to .400, no way.

[El Scorcho]

Yeah, I don't think so either but I also don't consider it out of the realm of possibility. I think he'll break the 257 hit record and finish around .385 for the season.

[fumanstan]

Reading ESPN's splits on player performance in September, Ichiro "only" averages a shade under .300 in September in his career. Let's see how he holds up :)

[Dabaomb]

Originally posted by neiname
No way he gets to .400, no way.

agreed, but his chances of breaking the hits record are pretty good.

[shizawn]

3 for 5 today.

[Kumar J]

He is now on the news daily in Japan.All of Japan is hoping he breaks that record.He is truly 1 dedicated professional player

[Jeremy517]

95 for 204, .466 since the All-Star break. Sheesh.

[Flashback]

Unbelievable (another multi hit game)...I really think this will happen.

Now what if they still played in the Kingdome? Would a lot more ground balls break through for base hits?

[twikoff]

Originally posted by Flashback
Unbelievable (another multi hit game)...I really think this will happen.

Now what if they still played in the Kingdome? Would a lot more ground balls break through for base hits?

cant really play this game

otherwise, you could say.. "would alot more balls get to the infielders quicker, where he doesnt get 99% of his hits on infield hits?" ;)

[Flashback]

Originally posted by twikoff
cant really play this game

otherwise, you could say.. "would alot more balls get to the infielders quicker, where he doesnt get 99% of his hits on infield hits?" ;)

True...that is definitely the flip side to my question. But his speed is also a factor as well.

Oh well, just a thought. Wonder if I can easily see his stats on turf v. grass.

EDIT:
There is just not enough games on turf to make an argument. His stats are slightly better on grass if I read them correctly but again it's about a 5 to 1 difference in games.

[B.A.]

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/2898514

PERRY: Ichiro a good player but no MVP

Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com

There are some things I like about Ichiro Suzuki.

I have a general fondness for those athletes who manage to become famously known by a single name. I also admire Ichiro for shattering the entirely specious notion that Japanese hitters can't cut it across the pond. And he's enjoyable to watch. He plays excellent defense, has a highlight-seizing arm in right and, like most accomplished bad-ball hitters, his plate appearances are usually entertaining. But Ichiro, for all his merits and likeability, is overrated as a ballplayer.

Ichiro's defense adds to his value, but doesn't make him the MVP.

I say this because Ichiro is now within hailing distance of one of baseball's most time-tested records. I'm of course referring to George Sisler's 1920 record for hits in a season (Ichiro already ranks ninth on the all-time list with 242 hits in 2001). Sisler that year logged 257 safeties, and Ichiro, at present, is on pace for 265 hits. That would be a commendable achievement and worthy of whatever attention it gets. However, it's also likely that his breaking that record would ferry along the idea that Ichiro is one of the elite players in the game. But he's not, and he never has been.

While Ichiro is a productive player, he's still encumbered with some serious limitations. Primarily, he lacks the optimum power numbers for a corner defender. Right field is a power position, and Ichiro, in almost four full seasons with the Mariners, is slugging only .446. His career high for homers is 13, and he's also never hit 35 doubles in a season. In 2004, Ichiro is slugging .467, while the average major league right fielder is slugging .453. So, in terms of power, Ichiro isn't much better than the average right fielder. That's not to say he's a mediocre player — he's much better than that — but a player can be only so valuable when his power is so middling relative to his position.

He's a singles hitter; in fact, almost 80 percent of his career hits have been of the one-base variety. Furthermore, Ichiro, by dint of his speed and extreme groundball tendencies, logs an inordinate number of infield hits. While there's nothing wrong with that trend in and of itself, those kinds of hits don't drive in base runners from second. When a player has such a high percentage of infield hits, this becomes a serious concern.

While Ichiro's career .338 average is excellent, his career on-base percentage of .382 is merely good. OBP is by far the more evocative statistic, and since Ichiro does not post strong walk rates, his winds up being not much higher than his batting average. His ability to reach base is his strength as a player, but his skills in that regard are widely exaggerated because of his ability to ring up high batting averages.

To be sure, Ichiro is an excellent defender, but that's only so useful in right field; it's simply a position of limited defensive contributions. Were he in center, his value would be much greater, but he's not. He's a right fielder, which means that there's a higher offensive gold standard and that his defensive value is circumscribed by the position. His cannon arm is also something that garners him much attention. While his throws to third base and elsewhere make for good highlights, it's an overrated tool. The outfielder's throwing arm simply doesn't come into play enough to make it a critical facet of the game. Nice to have, but ultimately of limited value.

And speaking of "ultimately of limited value," there are his stolen-base totals. From 2001 through 2003, Ichiro averaged just over 40 steals per season, and this year he's on pace for 38. He's been successful in 76.3 percent of his attempts in his career, which points to his efficiency on the base paths. Still, stolen bases simply don't contribute much in the way of runs. There's also some evidence that a batter's stats decline precipitously when there's a stolen base attempt during his plate appearance. It's a decent complementary skill to have, but stolen bases aren't all that valuable in today's game.

Put it all together, and you have a good — not great — player. According to the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) statistic developed by Baseball Prospectus, Ichiro is "only" the 13th-best player hitter in the game this season. That's commendable, but he's not, as one analyst recently called him, an MVP candidate on a bad team. Keep in mind, this is shaping up to be the best season of Ichiro's career, and he's not even one of the ten most productive hitters in baseball.

In 2001, the year he won the AL MVP, he wasn't even the best player on his team. Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez both put more runs on the board, and Boone was more valuable with the glove. Once again, according to the VORP from Baseball Prospectus, Ichiro was the 33rd best hitter in baseball that season. Consider that again: The AL MVP was only the 33rd best hitter in the game. To be fair, we should bump him up a few spots because of his defensive contributions. Still, by no means did he deserve the MVP that season, just as he doesn't deserve it this season or any other.

Ichiro has never been an elite player, and, given his age and skills set, it's likely he never will be. He's a good player, not a great one. Keep that in mind as he assails Sisler's record. It's entirely possible to be both productive and grossly overrated. That's Ichiro.

Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor for FoxSports.com.

[El Scorcho]

Dayn Perry is an idiot.

Ichiro is an elite player with the bat AND with the arm. He also is a singles hitter by choice, as anybody who has ever watched him drill balls off the windows in right field at Safeco in batting practice with regularity can attest. He recognizes his role to the ball club is to get on base for the upcoming hitters, not try to drill balls over the fence.

Dammit, now I have to add Dayn Perry to my list of dipshit sports writers.

[El Scorcho]

BTW, nobody was calling him an MVP candidate this season, so I dont know where he pulled that out of his ass. His 2001 season was MVP worthy, however.

[devilshalo]

If Ichiro isn't an elite player, then all others behind him must be below average enough that Scorcho should be in the MLB.

That's like saying Kobe is the model of what the average NBA player should be. :rolleyes:

[fumanstan]

I never bought the argument that a certain offensive expectation should come based on the position you play. Especially when you excel so much at other aspects of the game.

[Quake1028]

What a fucking idiot. I wonder how some of these people get/keep jobs.

[Roto]

Originally posted by devilshalo
If Ichiro isn't an elite player, then all others behind him must be below average enough that Scorcho should be in the MLB.

That's like saying Kobe is the model of what the average NBA player should be. :rolleyes:
I don't know, I think Scorcho just might be able to make the cut on the Mariners They're giving everyone else a shot :(

[twikoff]

Originally posted by Quake1028
What a fucking idiot. I wonder how some of these people get/keep jobs.

by getting themselves talked about and inciting these types of remarks

love em or hate em, the producers just want you to talk about em

[devilshalo]

Originally posted by Roto
I don't know, I think Scorcho just might be able to make the cut on the Mariners They're giving everyone else a shot :(

C'mon.. Scorcho can be the next Kirby Puckett.

[B.A.]

Originally posted by devilshalo
C'mon.. Scorcho can be the next Kirby Puckett. Please, don't insult my favorite player of all time. Thank you and have a nice day.

[B.A.]

Originally posted by El Scorcho
Dammit, now I have to add Dayn Perry to my list of dipshit sports writers. :lol: I came across that through a Sporting News.com link. I thought you would get a kick out of it. ;)

[Dabaomb]

Originally posted by devilshalo
C'mon.. Scorcho can be the next Kirby Puckett.

well he does have that hairy palm, errr wrist. So at least the Mariner's can hire him to be the mascot or resident freak show or something like that.

[Roto]

Originally posted by B.A.
Please, don't insult my favorite player of all time. Thank you and have a nice day.
He was my favorite player too until I found out what an asshole he could be in his private life.

[B.A.]

Originally posted by Roto
He was my favorite player too until I found out what an asshole he could be in his private life. It's a shame, but he he is still my favorite player.

Pete Rose is a complete dick, but millions of people still consider him their favorite player.

[El Scorcho]

I could be a bench player on the Mariners. I know I could make that team.

[TopHatCat64]

Originally posted by B.A.
Put it all together, and you have a good — not great — player. According to the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) statistic developed by Baseball Prospectus, Ichiro is "only" the 13th-best player hitter in the game this season.

Uh, so being the 13th best hitter in the entire major league doesn't qualify him a great player (at least for this season)?

Well let's see who else is below ichiro in the VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/vorp_player2004.html?PHPSESSID=6ff677999ed4737cebab71abec9433a2) stats

14. Miguel Tejada
17. Manny Ramirez
19. Gary Sheffield
25. Alex Rodriguez

[B.A.]

TopHat is making it look like I said that. -ohbfrank-

[davidh777]

Rob Dibble argued on Baseball Tonight that Ichiro wasn't that valuable to his team (because he doesn't take a lot of pitches) and supported it by comparing the averages of the Mariners' 2-3-4 hitters and to the Angels' 2-3-4 hitters. Right, like you can blame the Ms' crappy season on Ichiro. Funny, I always thought Bobby Valentine was a jerk, but I almost always agreed with him on Baseball Tonight (he was probably still a jerk, though).

I'm an Ichiro fan and would love to see him break this longstanding record.

[fumanstan]

I think this is a case where analyzing every single number and stat in baseball is inconclusive to the actual effect and importance of a player. Of course, maybe they're right and we're just caught up in the record chase :)

[twikoff]

Originally posted by B.A.
TopHat is making it look like I said that. -ohbfrank-

YOUR ARTICLES SUCK ASS!

[B.A.]

:lol:

[Quake1028]

Originally posted by TopHatCat64
Uh, so being the 13th best hitter in the entire major league doesn't qualify him a great player (at least for this season)?

Well let's see who else is below ichiro in the VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/vorp_player2004.html?PHPSESSID=6ff677999ed4737cebab71abec9433a2) stats

14. Miguel Tejada
17. Manny Ramirez
19. Gary Sheffield
25. Alex Rodriguez

If you agree with Bill Simmons then #17 and #19 are the only 2 candidates for AL MVP this year.

[dstrauss]

EDIT: (It's okay, we'll just keep yours.)

[twikoff]

copy my source and replace yours.. then Ill delete this post ;)

<table cellpadding=3 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr><Td>Rank</td><td>Player</td><td>Team</td><td>Pos</td><td>Bat</td><td>Pitch</td><td>Field</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>G Sheffield</td><td>NYY</td><td>OF</td><td>25.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.1</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>H Matsui</td><td>NYY</td><td>OF</td><td>22.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.2</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>C Guillen</td><td>DET</td><td>SS</td><td>18.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>5.4</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>V Guerrero</td><td>ANA</td><td>OF</td><td>20.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.2</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>M Tejada</td><td>BAL</td><td>SS</td><td>18.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>5.3</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>M Ramirez</td><td>BOS</td><td>OF</td><td>20.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.2</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>J Guillen</td><td>ANA</td><td>OF</td><td>19.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.9</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>H Blalock</td><td>TEX</td><td>3B</td><td>17.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>A Rodriguez</td><td>NYY</td><td>3B</td><td>16.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.9</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>M Young</td><td>TEX</td><td>SS</td><td>14.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>5.9</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>M Mora</td><td>BAL</td><td>3B</td><td>18.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>1.6</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>L Ford</td><td>MIN</td><td>OF</td><td>16.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.4</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>J Santana</td><td>MIN</td><td>P</td><td>0.4</td><td>19.8</td><td>0.0</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>J Damon</td><td>BOS</td><td>OF</td><td>14.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>5.9</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td><b>I Suzuki</b></td><td><b>SEA</b></td><td>OF</td><td>17.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.6</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>D Ortiz</td><td>BOS</td><td>1B</td><td>20.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>T Hafner</td><td>CLE</td><td>1B</td><td>18.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>D Jeter</td><td>NYY</td><td>SS</td><td>12.4</td><td>0.0</td><td>6.3</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>V Martinez</td><td>CLE</td><td>C</td><td>15.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.8</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>R Belliard</td><td>CLE</td><td>2B</td><td>13.9</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.9</td><td>18</td></tr></table>

[vdadlani219]

5 for 5...are you kidding me???

[fumanstan]

Hitting .379 now... thats nuts!

[the big train]

The guy is a freakin' machine.

It's not even fair. -ohbfrank-

[B.A.]

He's so overrated.


;)

[Roto]

If just one of those had been a double maybe they could've won the damn game :mad:

ok probably not. I didn't watch it anyway :p

[Dabaomb]

dam the Mariners suck. If it weren't for Ichiro I'd feel really sorry for M's fans.

[Roto]

That's not nice :mad: You should feel sorry for us irregardless

[Dabaomb]

Originally posted by Roto
That's not nice :mad: You should feel sorry for us irregardless

The most overpriced city (I still think NYC is), a crappy baseball team, crappy basketball team, and up-and-coming football team. So look on the bright side, at least u guys have a decent football team.

The NY Giants suck :(

Oh yeah, Ichiro had 1 hit today. I think he was 1-4.

[Roto]

Originally posted by Dabaomb
The most overpriced city (I still think NYC is), a crappy baseball team, crappy basketball team, and up-and-coming football team. So look on the bright side, at least u guys have a decent football team.

The NY Giants suck :(

Oh yeah, Ichiro had 1 hit today. I think he was 1-4.
Yeah but the Huskies can't even beat a WAC team :mad: so the Seahawks better live up to the hype and at least win a playoff game.

So that's 224 hits

[Jeremy517]

Only hit .250 today? Cut him. -ohbfrank-

[Deftones]

Ichiro w/ 2 hits tonight, up to 226.

[JurisIL]

Hmmm....

I might have to eat my words here if he pulls it off...Honestly, I didn't think he had much of a shot.

[Mr. M]

On pace for 257 in 155 games as of today.

To break it in 162 games, needs 32 hits in 26 games, or 1.23 h/g. His season average is 1.66 h/g.

If he gets 4.4 ab/g over those 26 games, only needs to hit .280 for the record.

All the more remarkable in pitcher-friendly Safeco.

[Josh H]

Originally posted by Mr. M

All the more remarkable in pitcher-friendly Safeco.

That really only, for the most part, applies to power hitters. The stadium doesn't really matter for a hitter like Ichiro that just gets a lot of singles and doubles.

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by Josh Hinkle
That really only, for the most part, applies to power hitters. The stadium doesn't really matter for a hitter like Ichiro that just gets a lot of singles and doubles.

Not so. This year, for H and R, Safeco's park factor is 29/30 (ahead of only Petco).

For HR and 2B Safeco is neutral this season (12/30 and 13/30 respectively).

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

In years past Ichiro's home/road splits have been about even, but this year for whatever reason Safeco has significantly affected him. He's only hitting .356 in Seattle!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6615

Split AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home .356 .399 .426 .825
Away .399 .434 .514 .949

[El Scorcho]

You'd think he'd do better in Safeco because the ball slows down considerably with the thick infield grass. This should mean more infield singles for him, especially ones slapped toward the shortstop hole.

[the big train]

1-5 on Wednesday and 2-4 on Thursday.

That makes it 229 hits for the season.

He needs 29 hits in his 23 remaining games to break the record.

[twikoff]

damn
he has pretty weak OBP compared to his batting avg

[El Scorcho]

For those keeping track, he's failed to get a hit in only 5 games since the All-Star break.

[Jeremy517]

Originally posted by twikoff
damn
he has pretty weak OBP compared to his batting avg

Paul Molitor (M's hitting coach) said that he tried to get Ichiro to take more pitches at the start of the year, and said that is the reason that Ichiro only hit .255 in April and that after he told Ichiro to forget about what he told him, Ichiro started hitting again.

[twikoff]

i guess he still has some adjustments to make
that .378 avg is pretty flashy.. but the OBP is too low for someone batting that high.. and the OPS is even worse

of course.. it still puts him among the top leadoff batters.. just not at the top of the list

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by twikoff
i guess he still has some adjustments to make
that .378 avg is pretty flashy.. but the OBP is too low for someone batting that high.. and the OPS is even worse

of course.. it still puts him among the top leadoff batters.. just not at the top of the list

-ohbfrank-

OBP overvalues walks relative to hits. The only way a BB drives in a run (which is the point of the offense, after all) is when the bases are loaded.

Which player would you rather have?
AVG OBP SLG
A: .300 .400 .500
B: .250 .400 .500
C: .400 .400 .500

All else being equal, I'd take Player C every time, even if he didn't draw a single walk all season.

If there is a leadoff hitter you'd rather have, I'm curious who it would be. Rickey, Raines?

[twikoff]

your leadoff batter is up there to get on base, not to drive in runs

[fumanstan]

1/4 tonight. 232 hits now.

[fumanstan]

Another 1/4. 233.

[Roto]

:( not looking good

[vdadlani219]

Well, he's 4 for his last 24.

Averaging 1.61805 hits per game...17 games left = 27.5 hits + 233 = 260

Still on pace to top Sisler, but needs to break out of this mini-slump.

[fumanstan]

Ichiro walks 3 times? :hscratch:

0/2 tonight

[namja]

Originally posted by fumanstan
Ichiro walks 3 times? :hscratch:

0/2 tonight
He must have been reading this thread and twikoff's criticisms about OBP.

[fumanstan]

Ichiro's been "struggling" a bit lately. 238 hits now. 900 for his 4 year MLB career :up:

[Roto]

Originally posted by namja
He must have been reading this thread and twikoff's criticisms about OBP.
:lol: He's got 12 games left and 19 hits to go from what I heard on the radio. I don't think he's going to make it, but it's going to be close. September is looking more like April and June for him. He'd hit .200 one month and .400-.500 the next.

[vdadlani219]

4 for 4 through the 6th inning tonight...15 hits left.

Should get 1-2 more at bats tonight.

The record is not safe!

[Copenhagen]

*crosses fingers*

Break it next Wednesday

[Deftones]

and he gets another one. 207 singles to set the MLB record.

[vdadlani219]

We're not worthy...we're not worthy

[Roto]

4 for 4, huh? *looks about 5 posts up*
He still can't do it. No way. He's got 14 to go in 11 games. Not a chance.

[neiname]

Originally posted by Roto
4 for 4, huh? *looks about 5 posts up*
He still can't do it. No way. He's got 14 to go in 11 games. Not a chance.

Are you kidding me, the man just went 5 for 5. He's going to do it.

[twikoff]

Originally posted by neiname
Are you kidding me, the man just went 5 for 5. He's going to do it.

:lol:

*hands neiname a sarcasm/crow eating detector*

[neiname]

Originally posted by twikoff
:lol:

*hands neiname a sarcasm/crow eating detector*

Damn it...

[fumanstan]

Another 5 for 5 game... come on Ichiro! You can do it!

[Mr. M]

A statistician on an M's board has been playing with probabilities that Ichiro breaks the record:

Prior to last night's 5/5 performance -

81% falls short
6.2% Ties it
12.8% Breaks the record

After the game -

43.03% Falls short
13.1% Ties it
43.87% Breaks the record

Still only a 44% probability of breaking it, but that's a hell of a lot better than 13%.

[Mordred]

Originally posted by Mr. M
A statistician on an M's board has been playing with probabilities that Ichiro breaks the record:

Prior to last night's 5/5 performance -


Still only a 44% probability of breaking it, but that's a hell of a lot better than 13%. 6 of Ichiro's final 11 games are against Texas which has good pitching, but gives up hits (particularly to players like Ichiro) fairly regularly. I'm fairly confident he'll break the record now.

[twikoff]

you know
the mariners are out of the race anyways

they should just go ahead and rest ichiro and the other starters.. and let some of the young guys get some playing time


;)

[El Scorcho]

Originally posted by Mr. M
A statistician on an M's board has been playing with probabilities that Ichiro breaks the record:

Prior to last night's 5/5 performance -


Still only a 44% probability of breaking it, but that's a hell of a lot better than 13%.

I'd like to see what factors he took into account here to come up with these figures.

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by El Scorcho
I'd like to see what factors he took into account here to come up with these figures.

Link (http://seattlemariners.topmlbforums.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=2305)

He bases it on past performance (this season and prior seasons) and expected # of AB. It doesn't factor in things like opposing teams/pitchers.

[El Scorcho]

Originally posted by Mr. M
Link (http://seattlemariners.topmlbforums.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=2305)

He bases it on past performance (this season and prior seasons) and expected # of AB. It doesn't factor in things like opposing teams/pitchers.

Thanks. Good read but as with most statistical analyses in regards to baseball, judgment over which factors weigh heavier than others is subjective. As you said, it doesn't factor in things like pitcher matchups, home/road splits for the remainder of the season, general health, situational hitting, etc. All of these I consider to have more of an effect on his results for the remainder of 2004 than what he did at previous points in his short MLB career.

[Mr. M]

I gathered up his stats vs the starters he's likely to face through the end of the season. The only ones he's really lit up have been Colon, Zito, and Dreese. It will definitely be fun to watch him chase the record.

http://img48.exs.cx/img48/8054/ichiro.jpg

[El Scorcho]

.308 * 44 AB (assuming 4 AB/gm in the remaining 11 games yields 13.5 hits. Awfully close :)

[twikoff]

damn M
you got too much time on your hands





and its really bad when I say that ;)

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by twikoff
damn M
you got too much time on your hands





and its really bad when I say that ;)

What? I just went through all of the gamelogs over the last 4 years!

ESPN helped a little bit. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?batterId=4570) ;)

[Deftones]

2 more hits tonight through 6 innings.

[Copenhagen]

4-6 through 9...247 for the year :up:

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by Copenhagen
4-6 through 9...247 for the year :up:

That's not bad, and he did draw an IBB, but he's no Raul Ibanez.

Raul's line: 6 for 6 with 5 RBI. The M's crank out 16 R on 24 H! -eek-

[Copenhagen]

Yeah Ibanez was on deck when the final out was made, I would have liked to see him go 7-7.

[Dabaomb]

He's getting really close. Go Ichiro!!!!!

[vdadlani219]

10 hits to tie with 10 games left...it's pretty much in the bank.

[Roto]

Originally posted by vdadlani219
10 hits to tie with 10 games left...it's pretty much in the bank.
Not a chance!

[Roto]

Originally posted by Copenhagen
Yeah Ibanez was on deck when the final out was made, I would have liked to see him go 7-7.
And afterwards he could've spit at El Scorcho.

[criptik28]

All these doubters...wonder why?

[sm8680]

George Sisler did it in less games ;)

[Toad]

Go Ichiro!!

[Deftones]

Originally posted by sm8680
George Sisler did it in less games ;)

That is true. It is someone a valid arguement, just as the HR record is.

[El Scorcho]

George Sisler did it against an era of pitchers that had most starters pitching 350-400 innings/season and didn't have any specialized pitchers like the MLB does now.

We can go round and round about this. :)

[twikoff]

you know.. its great and all
and its amazing that the record has lasted this long.. so it says alot for ichiro for breaking it

but really.. i dont really care about this record at all :hscratch:

[Roto]

Ok, twikoff doesn't care. I guess he can just quit wasting his time now -ptth-

Originally posted by criptik28
All these doubters...wonder why?
I'm trying not to jinx him like you idiots -ohbfrank- ;)

[Copenhagen]

I'm just trying to keep him from getting the record until Wednesday :D

[criptik28]

Originally posted by Roto
Ok, twikoff doesn't care. I guess he can just quit wasting his time now -ptth-


I'm trying not to jinx him like you idiots -ohbfrank- ;)

rofl

[Mr. M]

Originally posted by twikoff
you know.. its great and all
and its amazing that the record has lasted this long.. so it says alot for ichiro for breaking it

but really.. i dont really care about this record at all :hscratch:


http://img71.exs.cx/img71/8730/thedisinterestoftwikoff.jpg

You're right, if you had truly cared about the record you'd have had three or four times that many posts. :lol:

[Roto]

Busted! :lol:



Sisler fan :mad:

[Da Thrilla]

It's in the bag!

[twikoff]

sisler fan :lol:

and mr m... -ptth-

hell.. it surprises me as much as anyone else that I dont care anything about it.. i dont have anything at all against ichiro (well, except that his obp isnt higher).. but for some reason it just doesnt excite me..

maybe if he was also chasing batting .400

you would think someone that is going to set a record for most hits in a single season, would also be chasing .400.. but he really isnt even all that close (not like george brett and tony gwynn back in the day :up: )

[Roto]

Originally posted by Da Thrilla
It's in the bag!
[jinx off]No way. I agree with twikoff. Ichiro sucks and he isn't fit to hold George Sisler's jock.[/jinx off]

[twikoff]

:lol:
shut up
I didnt say that rotfl

[the big train]

2-4 tonight

249 hits

[Mr. M]

251

[FantasticVSDoom]

Damn...This might be the guy you should walk. Seems he can anything thrown at him. Would he be the MVP if the Mariners were in the playoff hunt?

[twikoff]

Originally posted by FantasticVSDoom
Damn...This might be the guy you should walk. Seems he can anything thrown at him. Would he be the MVP if the Mariners were in the playoff hunt?

why walk him? he is a singles hitter not a homerun threat
you dont want someone with his speed on base

if he was batting 20-30 points higher.. or hand an OBP 40-60 points higher.. he might get consideration

just seems odd that he can set the all time hits record and not even threaten to bat .400.. and might not even lead baseball in batting avg this season.

[FantasticVSDoom]

Originally posted by twikoff
why walk him? he is a singles hitter not a homerun threat
you dont want someone with his speed on base

if he was batting 20-30 points higher.. or hand an OBP 40-60 points higher.. he might get consideration

just seems odd that he can set the all time hits record and not even threaten to bat .400.. and might not even lead baseball in batting avg this season.
Oh I agree and plus he's the lead off hitter...I just thought it was interesting. Also I was thinking the same thing about his batting avg. It seems very odd that he has so many hits and batting avg. as low as his, I was thinking it was alot higher.

[fumanstan]

A lot of teams HAVE been walking him with a runner in scoring position lately.

[wildcatlh]

Originally posted by twikoff
why walk him? he is a singles hitter not a homerun threat
you dont want someone with his speed on base

if he was batting 20-30 points higher.. or hand an OBP 40-60 points higher.. he might get consideration

just seems odd that he can set the all time hits record and not even threaten to bat .400.. and might not even lead baseball in batting avg this season.

If there's a man on 2nd or 3rd, I'm giving serious consideration to walking Ichiro if I'm an opposing manager.

As for the "not hitting .400"... if you look at the top 10 hits in a season, not all of those players hit .400.

[twikoff]

you've got to throw the ball WAY outside to walk him ;)

[El Scorcho]

Ichiro with 252 hits.

Record is 257.

6 games to go.

[Kumar J]

Someone should start a poll !Could Ichiro break the record or not!

[Mr. M]

253 - lines a high fb for a 2B against Hudson in the top of the 1st.

[Autotelik]

254. lead off single in top of 5th

[Kumar J]

Wish he hits a homerun for the 257!Should be sweet

[Autotelik]

255. 1 for 2 so far tonight. in the 6th inning now

[Homer Simpson]

Top 3rd B:2 S: 2 O: 1
Ichiro Suzuki singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jermaine Dye. Miguel Olivo scores. Willie Bloomquist to 3rd.

1 for 2 today so far, 256 and counting...

[vdadlani219]

Ichiro due up 3rd in the top of the 5th...could tie the record!

[Y2K Falcon]

Hahahahha. They're gonna IBB Ichiro.

[Y2K Falcon]

OK. Maybe not.... 0-2 count

[vdadlani219]

And Ichiro gets 3 hits in 1 at-bat!!! MVP!!!

[vdadlani219]

striikkkkkkkeeeeeeee

[Roto]

He almost just tied the record. Byrnes made a nice running grab. He probably gets one more AB today.

[Thor Simpson]

Top of the 9th. Up now...

[Thor Simpson]

K. :(

[Kumar J]

Surely with all the fair play he is getting he can break the record.

[Dabaomb]

Originally posted by Thor Simpson
K. :(

:jawdrop: Thor in the sports forum???

If you were here more, I would've knew who you were and voted for you :o

[Copenhagen]

Leadoff single :up:

[Big Worms]

257. Just tied the record.

[Roto]

Pretty cool to see George Sisler's daughter and his grandkids there cheering Ichiro on.

Dumbass almost hurt himself jumping on top of the wall to go after a fly ball -ohbfrank- That would've been perfect.

[Roto]

Leading off this inning

[Roto]

FOUL BALL! :mad:

[Roto]

There it is! Right up the middle! :banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana:

[Copenhagen]

Nice :up:

[Roto]

Cmon Edgar, knock him in

[Roto]

Sweet, Edgar is the one to bring him home for his 100th run of the year. He's had 100 runs all 4 years he's been here.

How pathetic, 258 hits and only 100 runs :mad:

[shizawn]

Congrats Ichiro!

[Mad Dawg]

:up:

[Roto]

He's coming up again in the 3rd inning . And they have been giving the pitchers special marked balls ever since 250. I wonder if it's rigged :D

[Roto]

Oh man, huge catch by Lance Nyxe (however it's spelled) kept him from a double

[B.A.]

Way to go Ichiro!*

[Roto]

:lol:@the *

[IMRICKJAMES]

This stupid asterik debate!! If Ichiro only got this record because he played in more games how come the record was 84 years old? How come all the people that were in 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc practically played in the stone age? How come Pete Rose, The Hit King, playing in the same number games as Ichiro never even got close?

[Dabaomb]

big congrats to Ichiro :up:

This chase for the record has completely taken the attention off of Edgar's farewell tour but I assume that he'll get more exposure now that Ichiro has broken the record.

[Shamu]

Ichiro is also in the race for the At Bat race! Last I looked he was on pace for 704, one less than the current record!

[Dabaomb]

1 more hit tonight...he's up to 260 now.

[Big Worms]

Well he ends the season with 262 hits! Simply amazing!