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View Full Version : DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates (merged)


Sloth911
07-13-04, 01:54 PM
link (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040713/tc_afp/afplifestyle_germany_us_040713172320)

Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.

"These things can scratch or simply get lost."

Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."

Bushdog
07-13-04, 01:55 PM
Unless piracy can figure a way to work into the system he envisions, people will not abandon media.

RoyalTea
07-13-04, 01:55 PM
what about flying cars? weren't we supposed to have flying cars like, four years ago?

someone needs to be fired.

B.A.
07-13-04, 01:57 PM
I'm still waiting for my hover-board.

TexasGuy
07-13-04, 02:00 PM
Originally posted by RoyalTea
what about flying cars? weren't we supposed to have flying cars like, four years ago?



http://www.waffle-iron.com/10/dukes_hazzard_reduced.jpg

dick_grayson
07-13-04, 02:00 PM
they will be.....for the super-rich, maybe. Even so, I'll be living on the moon by then, so I won't need dvds.

RoyalTea
07-13-04, 02:00 PM
Originally posted by B.A.
I'm still waiting for my hover-board. Do you think that hoverboards will be a precursor, or an offshoot of the flying car industry? or are they completely different technologies altogether?

Bandoman
07-13-04, 02:02 PM
I'd settle for anti-grav boots.

fryinpan1
07-13-04, 02:03 PM
I think Gates' comments are ridiculous, but here they are:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040713/tc_afp/afplifestyle_germany_us_040713172320

FRANKFURT (AFP) - DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at the latest, Microsoft boss and founder Bill Gates (news - web sites) predicted.

Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.


"These things can scratch or simply get lost."


Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."

Barings
07-13-04, 02:04 PM
He's right, but he's wrong about the timeline. I think they will be about 25 to 40 years, but closer to shorter end of that estimate.

Everyone has been envisioning the all-in-one entertainment centre for decades where people can use the computer, television, music, and later the world wide web through a single source.

I'm sure the merging of media sources will take place, especially as internet cable gets faster and hard drives get bigger (and lower in cost). However, it will occur at a much slower pace than what he expects.

Josh Z
07-13-04, 02:04 PM
Originally posted by fryinpan1
Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it.

Isn't that called TiVo right now?

Galileo01
07-13-04, 02:05 PM
That is exactly what I thought!

Zodiac_Speaking
07-13-04, 02:07 PM
Who's Bill Gates to tell what the future holds. I see dvd lasting as long as the consumers want it to, not a monoply business telling us when it will end.

mverleg1
07-13-04, 02:07 PM
Originally posted by RoyalTea
Do you think that hoverboards will be a precursor, or an offshoot of the flying car industry? or are they completely different technologies altogether? They will develop in parallel. Once hover converstion technology has been developed, there will be 2 tracks, one group that makes the setup smaller, and one group that works to lift more weight. They will be based on the same technology, and most likely, the hoverboard group will get to market quicker, but the flying car market won't be far behind.

:)

MV

TexasGuy
07-13-04, 02:08 PM
Didn't Gates also predict that by now we wouldn't have hard drives and would "lease" all our software rather than buy it?

DVD Polizei
07-13-04, 02:09 PM
Bill said this 10 years ago. He needs to get out of his house more.

jtorres138
07-13-04, 02:10 PM
Originally posted by RoyalTea
what about flying cars? weren't we supposed to have flying cars like, four years ago?

someone needs to be fired.

If I'm remembering correctly, a FOX late 80's/early 90's tv show called "Beyond 2000" said that "flying cars" would be available in 2014. I don't know why I remember this, I watched this show when I was 12 or so.

B.A.
07-13-04, 02:11 PM
Originally posted by mverleg1
They will develop in parallel. Once hover converstion technology has been developed, there will be 2 tracks, one group that makes the setup smaller, and one group that works to lift more weight. They will be based on the same technology, and most likely, the hoverboard group will get to market quicker, but the flying car market won't be far behind.

:)

MV I was going to say the same thing, but w/ a little more eloquence.


;)

Tsar Chasm
07-13-04, 02:13 PM
Much like I find CD players to be obsolete, I think Gates is right on the money with respect to psychotic DVD collectors like me.

10 years ago, I drooled when I installed a 120MB hard drive in my 486dx66.

TexasGuy, we lease all of our software at the company I work at. It's called Software Assurance. As a corporation, we need to protect ourselves against upgrades etc... so we pay a maintenance fee (usually 25-40% of the actual license) each year. Sounds like another word for lease to me.

eXcentris
07-13-04, 02:15 PM
When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch...

So my computer will know that I'm in the mood to watch a Korean film over a Japanese film? How about if I'm in the mood for twin Swedish supermodels, is it going to provide that as well?

pilot
07-13-04, 02:16 PM
This is from the man who said "640k should be enough for anybody." ...who cares what he thinks!

ScandalUMD
07-13-04, 02:19 PM
I think he's right. Once all that content can be available over the internet, there is no reason for people to collect the physical discs, unless you just want to put them on your shelf.

His vision of things sounds good to me. You pay once, and no more double dipping, no more DVD rot, no more losing the discs, and if you want to watch a movie someplace other than your home you enter a password and your whole library is available to you. What's more, since the distribution method is cheaper, and retailers would be cut out of the chain, consumer prices would be cheaper.

This also provides better piracy protection to content holders. They want the purchase of a movie to just be a license to use content anyway, with limited permitted uses of the disc I bought, so I don't see why my use of the license I paid for should be connected to the durability of the DVD disc.

bboisvert
07-13-04, 02:26 PM
I don't know...

For one thing, it's going to take a hell of a lot longer than a decade to get the tremendous amount of home video material available on the Internet or elsewhere (in a format/delivery method that protects the rights of the copyright holders).

And then, people have to get plugged into whatever theoretical technology "knows what we want to watch". And then there's the costs involved. There are still quite a few people out there watching analog cable TV in mono on a 20" TV. This, in a world that was supposed to have fully embraced HDTV a long time ago.

What Gates is talking about may happen, but it is much further away than he's talking about. I'd be shocked if this became the norm within my lifetime.

Shannon Nutt
07-13-04, 02:27 PM
Gates comments remind me of those who said VHS and pay Cable would mark the end of the movie theaters.

Yes, DVD may be replaced with a better format, but it isn't going to be VOD. People still like owning a physical product and things like extras, commentaries and interactive options are a HUGE reason for DVD's success.

Gates will be obsolete before DVDs are...

ThatGuamGuy
07-13-04, 02:27 PM
Bill Gates, and others, have been predicting for *years* that television would be obsolete and computers would be the *only* place to watch stuff.

Seems like that's taken quite a bit of time. If I had to guess, I'd paraphrase 'singles' ... People *like* their televisions. (especially compared to their computers.)

I also like the Trey Parker quote, regarding when they were working on the Internet cartoon "Princess", "Nobody we know watches anything on the Internet except porn." While there are definite exceptions to this, I still think we're a long way away from actually getting rid of TV, DVDs, etc., in favor of *just* computers.

*Especially* considering the massive copyright problems that storing them exclusively on computers would be likely to cause.

matome
07-13-04, 02:28 PM
That sounds great unless the studios want to charge you everytime you want to watch the movie, instead of owning it outright.

Lecithin
07-13-04, 02:31 PM
Besides, what would I display next to all my action figures if the DVD cases no longer existed?

DVD/Action Figure display in HT (http://home.mchsi.com/~brebro2/page_1.html)

wz42
07-13-04, 02:31 PM
Perhaps instead of predicting these idiot visions of the future he should work on an OS that isn't a piece of crap. I know I like my TV and DVD recorder more than my computer that has basically the same stuff cause I know I can plop down when I get home and flip it on *knowing* that it'll work everytime.

Ginwen
07-13-04, 02:33 PM
People always like to say this kind of garbage. It sounds visionary and futuristic, and gets quoted a lot, but it's just a bunch of crap.

People like to own a tangible product, that they can hold in their hands; that will never, ever be replaced by media-on-demand (or Electronic Books, which everyone used to claim would replace real books).

KKnight
07-13-04, 02:34 PM
Originally posted by ScandalUMD
I think he's right. Once all that content can be available over the internet, there is no reason for people to collect the physical discs, unless you just want to put them on your shelf.

His vision of things sounds good to me. You pay once, and no more double dipping, no more DVD rot, no more losing the discs, and if you want to watch a movie someplace other than your home you enter a password and your whole library is available to you. What's more, since the distribution method is cheaper, and retailers would be cut out of the chain, consumer prices would be cheaper.

This also provides better piracy protection to content holders. They want the purchase of a movie to just be a license to use content anyway, with limited permitted uses of the disc I bought, so I don't see why my use of the license I paid for should be connected to the durability of the DVD disc. I see many problems to that theory. If you want access to your library everywhere, your library has to be stored in a place that's accessible in all places. For contents to be available over the Internet, they have to be stored via some severs somewhere. In turns, you have to pay them to store your contents and your preferences. In the long run, they will make you pay monthly subscription fees just to store your library. It's more than double dipping IMHO.

Otto
07-13-04, 02:34 PM
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/Yavanna/avery4.gif

"Where's my flying car? I was promised flying cars!"

emhello
07-13-04, 02:35 PM
Who is this 'Bill Gates'?

CRM114
07-13-04, 02:35 PM
Bill Gates is an authority on media now? Let me know when his company can make an operating system first.

wz42
07-13-04, 02:38 PM
Originally posted by ScandalUMD

What's more, since the distribution method is cheaper, and retailers would be cut out of the chain, consumer prices would be cheaper.


With no retailers we'd be dealing directly with the studios who'll have exclusive rights over their titles. I tend to think that prices will skyrocket without stores like DDD/DVDsoon/pawn shops etc bringing down the market forces.

Is it just me or is he talking about the old divx format from Circuit City?

Sex Fiend
07-13-04, 02:43 PM
Originally posted by emhello
Who is this 'Bill Gates'?

Just some megalomaniacal nerd who's trying to take over the world by turning everyone's computer screen blue. Pay no attention to him...

Pistol Pete
07-13-04, 02:44 PM
I say he's dead wrong. People like to own the physical media of content they are purchasing for long term ownership and like to view/hear short term transmitted content for free:


Long term ownership
CDs & DVDs: very successful
DiVX: catastrophic failure
Downloaded music: only financially successful when tied to hardware (ipod). Not $$ successful when only content is sold. Users want it for free because there is a lesser valuation placed on ephemeral content.

Short term usage
PPV: moderately successful in special cases (hotels, movies not yet out on DVD, etc)
Commercial and Cable TV: advertiser supported successful
Pay TV: successful for some programming (certain series, decent movies, etc). There is a reason that there are a total of 6 or so major pay channel conglomerates (less if you consider collectives like HBO-Cinemax).


Software and content leasing is what Bill wants. He would like to resell MS Ofiice to us every couple years. This is not the same as mantenance fees. The major difference is that with a maintenance fee, the software will continue working if you decide not to upgrade to the latest version. With software leasing, the package will cease to operate. You must continue to pay to run the software.

And as much as Hollywood would love a content leasing model it really doesn't make sense for static media. Do you really want George Lucas to "upgrade" Star Wars every year?

bigE
07-13-04, 02:46 PM
Originally posted by wz42
Perhaps instead of predicting these idiot visions of the future he should work on an OS that isn't a piece of crap.

AMEN to that! This from a corporation that leaves beta testing to the consumers.

fryinpan1
07-13-04, 02:47 PM
Maybe instead of forced trailers, DVDs could include free spam.

breaux124
07-13-04, 02:49 PM
I don't think he's exactly wrong. With Blu-ray discs coming out soon. They will be the same size as current red-laser DVD media but with the ability to hold 27GB per side (or layer ... can't remember). I don't think media in general will go away though. Soon everyone will be watching HD Movies on discs.

steebo777
07-13-04, 02:49 PM
Originally posted by Sex Fiend
Just some megalomaniacal nerd who's trying to take over the world by turning everyone's computer screen blue. Pay no attention to him...
If only we could...

redskull47
07-13-04, 02:57 PM
Originally posted by ScandalUMD
What's more, since the distribution method is cheaper, and retailers would be cut out of the chain, consumer prices would be cheaper.

Except that with retailers out of the chain, lots of stores will go out of business, hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost, and then no one will be able to pay for "video on demand."

ScandalUMD
07-13-04, 02:59 PM
Originally posted by Shannon Nutt
Gates comments remind me of those who said VHS and pay Cable would mark the end of the movie theaters.

Yes, DVD may be replaced with a better format, but it isn't going to be VOD. People still like owning a physical product and things like extras, commentaries and interactive options are a HUGE reason for DVD's success.

Gates will be obsolete before DVDs are...

All those extras can be streamed on demand like anything else. And people's desire to own a physical product hasn't slackened the demand for music downloads.

It may be that people will want to save their collections on their own big-ass hard drives rather than on remote servers, but if the price point is right, on-demand could easily eclipse retail DVDs. Obviously hard-drive failure would be a concern, but if they let you re-download stuff free or inexpensively, then it would be much more secure than owning discs.

The only thing we're waiting for is for broadband to hit critical mass and for bandwidth to be cheaper than DVD production and distribution.

Originally posted by ThatGuamGuy
Bill Gates, and others, have been predicting for *years* that television would be obsolete and computers would be the *only* place to watch stuff.

Seems like that's taken quite a bit of time. If I had to guess, I'd paraphrase 'singles' ... People *like* their televisions. (especially compared to their computers.)



Over the last few years, my television has become more and more like a computer and that's a good thing. I like the channel guides and on-demand cable. People with TiVos also have data storage connected to their TVs. And a DVD is really just software.

The TV and PC may not merge into a common interface, but they're likely to start sharing more and more features.


Originally posted by KKnight
I see many problems to that theory. If you want access to your library everywhere, your library has to be stored in a place that's accessible in all places. For contents to be available over the Internet, they have to be stored via some severs somewhere. In turns, you have to pay them to store your contents and your preferences. In the long run, they will make you pay monthly subscription fees just to store your library. It's more than double dipping IMHO.

Granted. If they set the thing up as a rip-off, then nobody would buy it.

bodomnet
07-13-04, 02:59 PM
So many good points in this thread.. the spam + os ones.. :D just great.

Though I wont go against this, if it does take over atm I cant exactly see it, people do like owning discs (and not just discs, artwork and booklets to) and mostly for cd, but dvd to we cant all own a lap-top and take our media every where we go. With a cd and discman you can..

And I cant see my family sitting around the pc for an evenings tv.

The Cow
07-13-04, 02:59 PM
Originally posted by Pistol Pete
I say he's dead wrong.

Long term ownership
CDs & DVDs: very successful
DiVX: catastrophic failure


The counter argument would be Vinyl records (LPs and 45s), Cassettes, and VHS. All very succesful, but for the most part faded. It's about the technology.

AndyCapps
07-13-04, 03:00 PM
"640K should be enough for anyone" -- Bill Gates

ScandalUMD
07-13-04, 03:03 PM
Originally posted by redskull47
Except that with retailers out of the chain, lots of stores will go out of business, hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost, and then no one will be able to pay for "video on demand."

Home video has only been a major moneymaker for large-scale retailers for about 4 years. Wal-Mart, Target, and Best Buy will survive. I expect a major economic catastrophe will be averted. Blockbuster probably won't make it, though.

aynrandgirl
07-13-04, 03:11 PM
Originally posted by ScandalUMD

His vision of things sounds good to me. You pay once, and no more double dipping, no more DVD rot, no more losing the discs, and if you want to watch a movie someplace other than your home you enter a password and your whole library is available to you.

Except that previous interviews establish Gates' vision of the future as pay-per-view, with Microsoft getting a cut of every view. When it comes to monopolistic, screw-the-consumer attitude, Microsoft is very happy to bed with MPAA, as long as they get a cut of the action and exclusive rights to peddle the software required to display the movies.

drjay
07-13-04, 03:13 PM
Streaming video on command (at the quality we get from DVD) would require an amount of impossibly stupid bandwidth, and it would be a waste, IMHO. You would need thick fiber going to every single house, and if that house didn't have MSN-Uberconnect or whatever, you wouldn't be able to watch "your" movies.

Bill Gates pisses me off when he makes these statements because he just assumes everyone will use his OS, his ISP, his machine, etc. If that isn't the case, his megalomaniacal plan won't exactly work.

But hey whatever, it'll just make piracy that much easier.

Tommy_Harn
07-13-04, 03:17 PM
www."TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it"talk.com?

Has a nice ring to it.

Pistol Pete
07-13-04, 03:19 PM
Originally posted by The Cow
The counter argument would be Vinyl records (LPs and 45s), Cassettes, and VHS. All very succesful, but for the most part faded. It's about the technology.
Faded vinyl and tapes are a technology limitation, not a built-in restriction necessary for the business model to work.

ANDREMIKE
07-13-04, 03:24 PM
I think the DVD's will go away too. However there will be something new and better to replace it. I would like to see music and movies on memory sticks. I think memory sticks will be the next media...

Th0r S1mpson
07-13-04, 03:28 PM
If we're not way beyond DVD's in 10 years I'll be extremely dissapointed. As long as I can still play my collection it's cool.

waveform
07-13-04, 03:33 PM
well, according to the dvds, Bill Gates will be obsolete in 10 years.

DRG
07-13-04, 03:33 PM
Originally posted by Pistol Pete
I say he's dead wrong. People like to own the physical media of content they are purchasing for long term ownership and like to view/hear short term transmitted content for free:

Agreed. He may have a point if we're talking about that subset of people who strictly rent movies, but for people like us (at least most of DVD Talk) the collecting is part of the fun of it. I like having this cool collection of DVDs that I own. If things came to a pay-for-view only format liek that I would just find a way to keep them in a 'permanent' format regardless, whether it be on a disc or a hard drive or whatever.

P.S. I find it especially funny these comments come from a man who clearly himself covets ownership of things, whether it be companies, trademarks, etc.

Otto
07-13-04, 03:36 PM
He was actually talking about media in general, if you notice:
"If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous."

But yes, I agree with Pistol Pete. He's dead wrong if he thinks he can change people's entire value system within 10 years. Right or wrong, people place greater valuation on actual physical media than they do on the content of that media. Offer them the content without the media, and their internal valuation of it drops to 0.00, as the RIAA will be glad to point out to you.

Music is the most obvious example. People download the music for free, but will pay for the CD containing the music. Although they're starting to buck up and pay for it via iTunes and such, there's a lot of complaints about that ephemeral quality of the music, as people still seem to place no value on the data.

Witness the people bitching up a storm on Apple's own discussion forums. Why are they complaining? Because they bought X amount of music, formatted their hard drive, and there's no way for them to redownload their music. They dislike the idea that the data itself has value and that value can easily be destroyed. Yes, they're idiots, but they have a point. People do not value mere collections of bits. Witness the lack of backups these people have. I regularly back up important data, but very large numbers of people do not. Why? Because data is so easy to get. Go online, and there it is. The idea that some data is one time obtainable only and valuable because of that is bit of a new idea to them, and a lot of people haven't grasped it yet.

IT people understand about paying for data. We've been doing it for years. The rest of the world has not and it's going to be a hell of a transition to push that into movies and television and music. DivX failed so miserably because the world wasn't ready for the idea of a thing you pay for but which you do not actually own. Rental they grasp. You pay to use it. But DivX you bought and then could throw away or keep or whatever. And yet you still had to pay to use it every time. It wasn't a concept that fitted in. But really all it was was paying every time you accessed that set of data on the disc. To the users, data simply has no value even though the data is what they are paying to get. It going to take a lot to overcome that.

nightmaster
07-13-04, 03:38 PM
Originally posted by matome
[B]That sounds great unless the studios want to charge you everytime you want to watch the movie, instead of owning it outright.

Which we all know they invariably would want to do. Greed would definitely win the day in that scenario.

twikoff
07-13-04, 03:39 PM
Originally posted by ANDREMIKE
I think the DVD's will go away too. However there will be something new and better to replace it. I would like to see music and movies on memory sticks. I think memory sticks will be the next media...

yep, this is my thought as well
once you can fit a few gig on a jumpdrive....

CRM114
07-13-04, 03:40 PM
Apparently, there are movies on demand now in certain cable companies. Anyone experience this?

To move the data necessary over a network with DVD quality or higher, I would think we'd need a lot fatter pipes into our houses. Maybe some will have fiber right into their house but look how long its taking regular broadband to make its way around the country.

I would LOVE it if I had no media. I would pack my DVDs away if it was possible to watch any 16:9 DD5.1 film anytime I wanted. Of course, if it was $5 everytime, that would suck. $1 would work. :)

wordtoyamotha
07-13-04, 03:41 PM
Dvd's being obsolete in 10 years is what Bill Gates WANTS to happen....

Tracer Bullet
07-13-04, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by Thor Simpson
If we're not way beyond DVD's in 10 years I'll be extremely dissapointed. As long as I can still play my collection it's cool.

I just watched the new Rebo & Zooty film on datacrystal last night. Where have you been?

Pistol Pete
07-13-04, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by Thor Simpson
If we're not way beyond DVD's in 10 years I'll be extremely dissapointed. As long as I can still play my collection it's cool.
I'll be very surprised if some form of DVD is not the primary video media format. Getting the hardware and content companies together on development of the DVD was a huge effort. Even then mavericks like Disney pushed DiVX slowing adaptation of the standard. A widely-accepted completely new standard is quite a long way off.

Memory chips have a long way to come to beat DVDs. The manufactuing technology for DVDs is simple and efficient (stamp press - like making records). In quantity, they are dirt cheap to produce. Good luck achieving that level of efficiency with any active electronic recording technology.

nightmaster
07-13-04, 03:51 PM
Gates' vision of the future of DVD ticks me off as I'm sure it does many others. THIS from a guy who hasn't made any changes of note for years in what is the most used browser around. 10 years to move into a scenario where everything is available to anyone at anytime? Closest I see we have to that is to have hard copies of what we want to watch.....and at present that's DVD. I bought my first VCR in 1982, and look at how long it's taking to kill THAT medium, even with the advent of DVD as well as many variations of recordable media. Bill loves the spotlight, that's all. When DVD is replaced I still don't see it being with some media that isn't tangible, as in something that you are unable to walk into a store and either buy or rent. I don't see Bill's vision being very cost efficient either. People are irked at the prices of cable, pay per view and satellite TV already......and being able to just start watching virtually anything I can name in a minutes notice seems like an expensive concept for the consumer.

Josh H
07-13-04, 04:00 PM
People (especially sony) said that about CDs various times over the past couple decades.

There will be better technology, but it will in all likelihood be much longer than 20 years before DVDs are replaced as the dominant home video format. Joe Six Pack doesn't care about better picture and sound, DVD offered much more than that over VHS (extras, scene selection, durability etc) just like CDs did over cassetes and the other formats.

New movie formats will likely hit the same resistance as mini-disc, SA-CDs and DVD-audio, as picture and sound won't get the average person to rebuy their collection.

Jazzbutcher
07-13-04, 04:03 PM
Weren't we also supposed to have flying cars by now?
:rolleyes:

El-Kabong
07-13-04, 04:06 PM
Originally posted by DVD Polizei
Bill said this 10 years ago. He needs to get out of his house more.

He's been trying - but do you know how BIG his house is?

eau
07-13-04, 04:10 PM
If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.
If you consider that nowadays we have to apply security patches and fixes to the computer, and to reboot the OS every now and then because it quits working, it's more ridiculous!

jkester
07-13-04, 04:13 PM
Originally posted by ANDREMIKE
I think the DVD's will go away too. However there will be something new and better to replace it. I would like to see music and movies on memory sticks. I think memory sticks will be the next media...

I think you're wrong :) Just as people value physical media, they also value physical media that is tangibly at least semi-big. DVDs are compact enough, and people will think of a smaller medium as less valuable.

SuperJim88
07-13-04, 04:15 PM
Where does the blue-ray DVD fits into this evloutionary timeline?

ANDREMIKE
07-13-04, 04:15 PM
On second thought... VHS has been around for what 25+years? DVD's have only been around for about 10 years. Therefore, I think DVD's will be around for much longer then 10 more years... Especially since there just starting to sell equipment to allow you to record on DVD. I predict VHS will be gone in 10 years..

PixyJunket
07-13-04, 04:17 PM
Wow.. a thread about a Bill Gates quote about DVDs and we have Windows bashing? What a bunch of disgusting losers.

ChrisHicks
07-13-04, 04:26 PM
<-----gets in line now to have brain replaced with a brand new mini computer running the newest version of XP POOP.

I just wish they would skip all this "use a pc for the internet" crap and just figure out a way to just plug the internet right into our heads. this would be great for me because I can't type worth a crap. :)

Cusm
07-13-04, 04:30 PM
I am sure in 10 years most of us on this board will consider DVDs as obsolete as VHS is to us today, but there will be many that are still using them regularly. And as stated earlier he was addressing the media, and I think he is dead wrong on this account.

drjay
07-13-04, 04:33 PM
Chris I agree completely. I'm just waiting to download my brain to a hard drive so that I can interact with my pr0nvids.

Rivero
07-13-04, 04:34 PM
Originally posted by RoyalTea
what about flying cars? weren't we supposed to have flying cars like, four years ago?

Never, ever, never never going to happen. Ever.

ArchibaldTuttle
07-13-04, 04:36 PM
Originally posted by pilot
This is from the man who said "640k should be enough for anybody." ...who cares what he thinks!

thats exactly what I thought of when I read this threads title, I mean he's right but its kind of "duh" thing if you have any common sense

Luc TC
07-13-04, 04:37 PM
I believe he's wrong also. Until our generation dies out and the new generation embraced the new ways, it will be around just like how the old folks today still using VHS and cassette tape. My parents still hasn't got into the convenient of DVD and CDs. Until their generation dies, VHS and cassette will be around.

I say at least 25 years. It's not that easy to change people's way.

Iron_Giant
07-13-04, 04:37 PM
Originally posted by Shannon Nutt
Gates comments remind me of those who said VHS and pay Cable would mark the end of the movie theaters.

Yes, DVD may be replaced with a better format, but it isn't going to be VOD. People still like owning a physical product and things like extras, commentaries and interactive options are a HUGE reason for DVD's success.

Gates will be obsolete before DVDs are...
The exact words I was going to type.

It is just like the people who said that PC would be replaced years ago by having a central server. Never happened and never will. I want my own PC and my own DVD collection.

Plus there is more money for the studio by selling DVDs and not everyone will have the "Internet Connection" nor the hardware to run the "PC Gates wants us all to buy from him".

darkflounder
07-13-04, 04:39 PM
Originally posted by TracerBullet
I just watched the new Rebo & Zooty film on datacrystal last night. Where have you been?

Datacrystals? That's so 2240! Are those players even compatible with the new Vorlon hologram screens?

jough
07-13-04, 04:40 PM
This is the same guy who thought the internet was a passing fad back in 1994, right?

darqleo
07-13-04, 04:41 PM
If Bill Gates created the DVD he'd be singing a different tune.
And the fact is, people like to collect stuff. How boring to just download movies from your computer/TV !!!

Pistol Pete
07-13-04, 04:46 PM
Bill Gates is no visionary. Heck, in 1994 this guy thought that the internet wouldn't amount to anything worth worrying about. His only skills lie in controlling a market through tying a poor product to a widely distributed mediocre one.

As a visionary, Steve Jobs makes Bill Gates look like retarded child.

Otto
07-13-04, 04:50 PM
Originally posted by CRM114
Apparently, there are movies on demand now in certain cable companies. Anyone experience this?
Yes. My cable company has about 50 or so movies available on deman. They also have about 20 or so On Demand channels for various networks. Like HBO on Demand, Cinemax on Demand, Showtime, etc, etc. Also Discovery, Cartoon Network, Anime channel, Home and Garden, etc. Loads of 'em. It works pretty well, actually. The quality is good on most programming I've watched, but the catalog is rather sparse. Although one nice thing is that they have lots of series type of episodes. Like Showitme On Demand has the last couple of seasons of Penn and Teller available, and I was able to watch the ones I missed pretty easily.

Cost is usually $1-3 for a movie, the channel based ones are free if you happen to get that channel in your package.

Otto
07-13-04, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by Cusm
I am sure in 10 years most of us on this board will consider DVDs as obsolete as VHS is to us today, but there will be many that are still using them regularly. And as stated earlier he was addressing the media, and I think he is dead wrong on this account.
I would start up crystaltalk.com, but it'd be quickly infested by a bunch of new age hippies talking about friggin' energies or something.

Numanoid
07-13-04, 04:53 PM
http://imzadi2063.tripod.com/images/isochips.jpg

CRM114
07-13-04, 05:02 PM
Originally posted by Otto
Yes. My cable company has about 50 or so movies available on deman. They also have about 20 or so On Demand channels for various networks. Like HBO on Demand, Cinemax on Demand, Showtime, etc, etc. Also Discovery, Cartoon Network, Anime channel, Home and Garden, etc. Loads of 'em. It works pretty well, actually. The quality is good on most programming I've watched, but the catalog is rather sparse. Although one nice thing is that they have lots of series type of episodes. Like Showitme On Demand has the last couple of seasons of Penn and Teller available, and I was able to watch the ones I missed pretty easily.

Cost is usually $1-3 for a movie, the channel based ones are free if you happen to get that channel in your package.

Does it begin playing immediately at any time? THIS is the future. I think media IS dead. Wire your house with ethernet and set up a music server for the house. Plug in some Airport Expresses or Tivos. That's the beginning of the future.

The Cow
07-13-04, 05:06 PM
Originally posted by CRM114
Does it begin playing immediately at any time? THIS is the future. I think media IS dead. Wire your house with ethernet and set up a music server for the house. Plug in some Airport Expresses or Tivos. That's the beginning of the future.
On my cable system you get the movie for a 24 hour period. You can pause, rewind, fast-forward, rewatch as much as you want during that period.

nightmaster
07-13-04, 05:20 PM
Originally posted by eau
If you consider that nowadays we have to apply security patches and fixes to the computer, and to reboot the OS every now and then because it quits working, it's more ridiculous!

Amen to THAT. Early on I decided to actually learn to build and configure these things after a few trips to the PC repair shops in '96. Most peoples' problems aren't hardware based...they are OS based, virus based, compatibility based 8 years later.....Joe Six Pack is pretty much forced to learn how to work on his PC in at least SOME way or spend $40 or more an hour getting a PC repairman to do stuff like format a hard drive or retrieve files some virus has deleted. If the DVD is going to be obsolete in 10 years then by now computers should be virus-free and user friendly to the degree that you turn them on and they work.....no rebooting, no upgrading various cards, getting patches and updates from dozens of different companies, just turn 'em on and use 'em.....hell, even the VCR did that.

kvrdave
07-13-04, 05:39 PM
Piracy is the main obstacle.

Personally, I can envision paying to download a movie (or buying it through retail) onto my massive harddrive. Then using a media stick to put the desired movie from my library on it, and plugging it into my hologram doohickey. It would also be tied directly into my HD, but the media stick is essential so that I can take it to my friend's house, my car, etc.

However, if they caharge essentially the same price (as they do for downloading music), I will continue to buy movie rather than download it.

Tracer Bullet
07-13-04, 05:42 PM
Originally posted by darkflounder
Datacrystals? That's so 2240! Are those players even compatible with the new Vorlon hologram screens?

The players are, but there are no datacrystals that have been done in holovision yet. There are no plans to reissue new editions, either. :(

El-Kabong
07-13-04, 05:45 PM
Screw this Video on Demand crap! What about flying cars? We were supposed to have flying cars in 2001!

Hello - this is THE FUTURE, people. Someone lied to me as a kid!

Otto
07-13-04, 06:05 PM
Originally posted by CRM114
Does it begin playing immediately at any time? THIS is the future. I think media IS dead. Wire your house with ethernet and set up a music server for the house. Plug in some Airport Expresses or Tivos. That's the beginning of the future.
Sure. You go to the menu, select it, it makes it available to you for about 3-4 hours, and starts up after a short delay (10-30 seconds, depending on how bad the network overhead is). Paid material is available for 24 hours. You can rewind and FF and such. It sends the keypresses back to the head end for the actual ff'ing and rw'ing though, so it's a bit slow to respond (it buffers somewhat, but obviously it can't buffer the whole thing).

The PVR version of the digital cable box does the same thing, except the show gets downloaded to the hard drive, as I understand it, eliminating the fast forward and rewind issues. I do not have one of these PVRs, so I don't know. I see the advantages of it, but the fact is that when I used one, it was incapable of doing the things I take for granted on the Tivo. If it was a Tivo style interface with that kind of feature set, and then had the on demand as well, it'd be a no-brainer decision. I'd use it in a heartbeat. But I have not yet seen any interface as good for my activities as Tivo's. Some of the free interfaces like MythTV and Freevo come close. The cable company PVR boxes don't even get in the ballpark yet.

Mike Lowrey
07-13-04, 06:17 PM
I see one more problem. Who determines release date after theatrical runs?

namja
07-13-04, 06:55 PM
Originally posted by ANDREMIKE
On second thought... VHS has been around for what 25+years? DVD's have only been around for about 10 years. Therefore, I think DVD's will be around for much longer then 10 more years... Especially since there just starting to sell equipment to allow you to record on DVD. I predict VHS will be gone in 10 years..
In 10 years, the DVD will be like what the VHS is now (it's not obsolete, but it's so on its way out).

I'd like to see better memory cards as well. Imagine if something like a CompactFlash card could store 100 GB and it was super fast.

CRM114
07-13-04, 07:14 PM
Originally posted by Otto
Sure. You go to the menu, select it, it makes it available to you for about 3-4 hours, and starts up after a short delay (10-30 seconds, depending on how bad the network overhead is). Paid material is available for 24 hours. You can rewind and FF and such. It sends the keypresses back to the head end for the actual ff'ing and rw'ing though, so it's a bit slow to respond (it buffers somewhat, but obviously it can't buffer the whole thing).

The PVR version of the digital cable box does the same thing, except the show gets downloaded to the hard drive, as I understand it, eliminating the fast forward and rewind issues. I do not have one of these PVRs, so I don't know. I see the advantages of it, but the fact is that when I used one, it was incapable of doing the things I take for granted on the Tivo. If it was a Tivo style interface with that kind of feature set, and then had the on demand as well, it'd be a no-brainer decision. I'd use it in a heartbeat. But I have not yet seen any interface as good for my activities as Tivo's. Some of the free interfaces like MythTV and Freevo come close. The cable company PVR boxes don't even get in the ballpark yet.

But I presume the movies on demand are the full frame versions on HBO? Is there HBO HD on demand? Thats what would sell me.

WojtekZ
07-13-04, 07:52 PM
Apple has proved that people will buy music online without caring about a hard copy. Bill's 10 year target is NOT unrealistic. Being a network engineer, I see it as plausible that we see network speeds that would easily allow for streamed HD content available almost anywhere (wireless is a remote but plausible possibility). With an HD stream being about 19Mbps today, this is about 2-4x the speed of residential broadband services available in my neighbourhood today. My Internet connection today is about 200x faster than it was 10 years ago.

I also believe that we may be less than 10 years away from seeing near simultaneous release in theatres and DVD.

gutwrencher
07-13-04, 08:00 PM
in *this* ear and out the other. maybe when I'm 80...but I wont be giving a shit by then. I'll be more worried about my eyesight.

JimRochester
07-13-04, 08:39 PM
Does that mean I'll no longer be able to buy used movies for $8?

Mike Lowrey
07-13-04, 08:40 PM
Originally posted by WojtekZ
With an HD stream being about 19Mbps today, this is about 2-4x the speed of residential broadband services available in my neighbourhood today. My Internet connection today is about 200x faster than it was 10 years ago.

Had a 2400 Baud, did ya? I remember it took over 50 minutes to download 700K on that thing.

I also believe that we may be less than 10 years away from seeing near simultaneous release in theatres and DVD.

Well, I'm already there. I don't go to the theaters anymore (last time was for LOTR:TTT). I wait for the DVDs for the select few movies I want to see. Why pay movie ticket price and then $50 for popcorn and a Coke, when I can wait a few more months and buy the movie and special features that I don't get in the theater for ~$20?

An article about DVD a couple years ago said that theatrical releases were just basically (teaser) trailers for the DVD.

pilot
07-13-04, 08:44 PM
Originally posted by AndyCapps
"640K should be enough for anyone" -- Bill Gates

copycat! i said that earlier in the thread.. yer too slow! :P

speedyray
07-13-04, 09:29 PM
Yeah, right.

It is too accepted. Hell, the CD has been on death watch for years, there are better mediums that have come and gone. It is widely accepted and has decent quality. How many people do you know clamoring to buy DVD Audio instead of a CD on new release day (hint - not many)

I think even HD-DVD will not replace DVD, HD I think will become like LaserDisc in that us here in the forum will probably buy it, but joe six pack could care less. It may catch on, but not till it is as cheap as DVD (real cheap).

I could be wrong, but I don't really think so. I think the reason DVD caught on in the way it did, was not so much how good it was, but how much better it was than VHS.

Oh, and I want them on a shelf, not someone serving them up to me. If I want to watch something, I don;t need some company keeping track of what I watch.

Oh, and if its running on MS technology it is sure to not work and piss you off at least once a week. My DVD player always work.

Playitagainsam
07-13-04, 09:33 PM
Can we put a contract on Bill?

Time and again, the idea of a Big Brother-ish society in which you don't own anything, and things are being given to you on a "pay-per-use" basis has proven unrealistic. There are still parts of the world that are technologically "passť", there are people who like to collect things, hell, I'd even say this goes against the basic human nature.

Not to mention that, judging by the way companies understand the "demand-suppy" equation, and pretend to know better what you and me want to see, we may well end up in a situation in which we're offered 'controlled" content (by various socio-political or even plainly economical forces)... do you really want a company like Universal to decide what films it will have available for the public?

I just listened to GUilermo del Toro's commentary on "Devil's backbone" ,and he observes that the work he'd done with kids in Spain cannot be repeated in Hollywood, since children are expected to fill different social roles.

So Bill Gates touts video-on-demand (based on Microsoft technology, of course), and Sony/Columbia wants to release films in fullscreen only.... what else is next?

Oh, and by the way... comparing the lack of a physical medium in case of video files to mp3 is erroneous, since an mp3 file is a stereo audio file and that's it. We're not talking about alternate audio tracks in several languages, subtitles, featurettes, Follow the White Rabbit schemes and so on.

Otto
07-13-04, 10:28 PM
Originally posted by CRM114
But I presume the movies on demand are the full frame versions on HBO? Is there HBO HD on demand? Thats what would sell me.
The PPV movies on demand come in both widescreen and full frame formats. The stuff on the channel On demand channels is basically identical to the broadcast version of those channels, so it's usually full frame.

There are HD channels too, I think. I have no HD box.

Here's my channel lineup: http://tvlistings2.zap2it.com/edit_preview.asp?partner_id=national&zipcode=38103&system=74578
-Channels 150-166 are all OnDemand channels that come with basic-digital cable.
-If you look at every set of premium channels, like HBO, you'll see a "-DEM" channel which is the OnDemand channel for that premium network, like 316 HBODEM.
-All the "IN#" channels are "In Demand" which is like DirecTV's PPV, where it repeats the same show over and over.
-The "IC#" channels are "InControl" channels, where they have various movies that you can select and view in an on demand type of mode (you pay for these movies).
-Down around the 800's are the HD channels, and I believe that INHD2 is an On Demand HD channel. Not sure there.

obladioblada
07-13-04, 10:33 PM
I hate the idea of all 500 of my movies being confinded into a small device that can be destroyed by an ahole with a virus. I'd rather take my chances with a fire buring down my house (which would still take my computer anyway). Gates most likely doesnt collect anything as cheap as DVDs, so he as no frame of reference for the people who have pretty collections like my precious. He probably collects $20,000 paintings and has 500 of them. Then again his $20,000 is most likely equal to my $20.00. Anyway, I predict that collecting paintings will be obsolete in 10 years because all of the good ones can be viewed on the internet.

calhoun07
07-13-04, 11:04 PM
Originally posted by Numanoid
http://imzadi2063.tripod.com/images/isochips.jpg

I have a friend who keeps on insisting all movies in the future will be available in chip format only and make DVDs obsolete. Personally, I think DVDs are here for the long haul. The people who produce these things know they cannot and will not get the majority of the buying public to switch over to a new format, even if it is fundamenetaly "better." It is like DAT compared to regular cassette. DAT is far superior to DAT, but people stuck with cassette tapes as long as they did because it was adequate for what it provided. Like wise with CDs in light of new CD formats. The new CD formats are hardly taking over music stores. People were more likely to make a switch from inferior products to more superior products but, to the common person, digital sound is digital sound if it's on a CD and they don't care about SACD or DVD Audio. Hell, I know I am not replacing my huge CD collection anytime soon.

Likewise with DVDs. It won the format war with VHS so quickly because it was clear to the average person DVD was better than VHS. Only to the hard core enthusist will chip movies or HDDVD or whatever comes later really appeal to. Chip movies or whatever will only be niche formats, much like DAT.

Bill Gates reminds me more of the whining person who says, "Why buy such and such movie or TV show on DVD when you can watch it on TV?" The basic answer is: my schedule, my time, and I don't have to pay anybody a monthly fee to watch my DVDs whenever I want.

And I am still waiting for the day X Box demolishes Playstation in the game market. And still waiting....

eau
07-14-04, 01:16 AM
When I read this thread, this movie comes to mind - Kill Bill.

Qui Gon Jim
07-14-04, 08:14 AM
Originally posted by gutwrencher
in *this* ear and out the other. maybe when I'm 80...but I wont be giving a shit by then. I'll be more worried about my eyesight.

No worries about your eyesight:
http://www.startrek.com/imageuploads/200307/burton02/120x90.jpg

kenbuzz
07-14-04, 08:39 AM
"These things can scratch or simply get lost."
Cats do this too, and they're not obsolete yet.
http://www.rmad.org/weekly/lost_cat__Wonder2.jpg

Maquis
07-14-04, 09:12 AM
I agree with other opinions here. People will always want disks or other form of phycial media to own a movie on. Face it, we live in a materialistic country!

I also think that the big-brother aspect will still scare too many people away. I know I don't need to have the studios tracking my watching habits so they can cram more directed advertising down my throat.

wz42
07-14-04, 09:46 AM
Originally posted by Pistol Pete
As a visionary, Steve Jobs makes Bill Gates look like retarded child.

look?

RockyMtnBri
07-14-04, 09:55 AM
Remember, Gates is also the fella who said we'd never need more than 640KB of memory in a PC! That why MS DOS had to be patched with memory managers. He's no Nostradamus.

billy9215
07-14-04, 10:23 AM
Close this thread.

Sex Fiend
07-14-04, 04:58 PM
Originally posted by billy9215
Close this thread.

You heard Mr. Gates. Close it !!!

bloopbleep
07-14-04, 05:14 PM
he might be a little right I watched the first 3 seasons of sopranos on demand never bought a dvd boxset of sopranos,now I am watching curb your enthusaism and dead like me on demand,watching them when it is convient also 10 years ago,I never heard about the internet,online dating,playstation or hdtv,so anything can happen.

Tracer Bullet
07-14-04, 06:42 PM
Originally posted by PixyJunket
Wow.. a thread about a Bill Gates quote about DVDs and we have Windows bashing? What a bunch of disgusting losers.

rotfl

Sunday Morning
07-14-04, 07:39 PM
I think it would be kinda funny if bill gates found out that money will be obsolete in 10 years.

calhoun07
07-15-04, 12:11 AM
Originally posted by Sunday Morning
I think it would be kinda funny if bill gates found out that money will be obsolete in 10 years.

It will be. He will need a chip in his hand to conduct business.

B5Erik
07-15-04, 02:45 AM
Originally posted by calhoun07
I have a friend who keeps on insisting all movies in the future will be available in chip format only and make DVDs obsolete. Personally, I think DVDs are here for the long haul. The people who produce these things know they cannot and will not get the majority of the buying public to switch over to a new format, even if it is fundamenetaly "better." It is like DAT compared to regular cassette. DAT is far superior to DAT, but people stuck with cassette tapes as long as they did because it was adequate for what it provided. Like wise with CDs in light of new CD formats. The new CD formats are hardly taking over music stores. People were more likely to make a switch from inferior products to more superior products but, to the common person, digital sound is digital sound if it's on a CD and they don't care about SACD or DVD Audio. Hell, I know I am not replacing my huge CD collection anytime soon.

Likewise with DVDs. It won the format war with VHS so quickly because it was clear to the average person DVD was better than VHS. Only to the hard core enthusist will chip movies or HDDVD or whatever comes later really appeal to. Chip movies or whatever will only be niche formats, much like DAT.

Bill Gates reminds me more of the whining person who says, "Why buy such and such movie or TV show on DVD when you can watch it on TV?" The basic answer is: my schedule, my time, and I don't have to pay anybody a monthly fee to watch my DVDs whenever I want.



There are a lot of reasons why DVD will be around as long as CD has been. Half the country (or more) has switched over to DVD from VHS and loves it. DVDs look great on HDTV's, and people have invested a lot of money in their collections. Just like the new DVD Audio and SACD are superior to CD but haven't caught on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray discs are going to be a tough sell as well.

Video on demand means paying each time you watch a title. People like to pay once for their movies. People, as has been noted dozens of times on this thread, LOVE to have something tangible to put on their shelves or in their racks - people want to have video/movie libraries. Getting it all over the computer or even through digital cable just isn't the same. Sure, SOME people will prefer video on demand, but a hell of a lot will prefer DVD (or it's successor, whenever that happens).

DVD will be around for quite a while. Maybe not forever, but considering that there are still people who play vinyl records and watch VHS or LaserDisc you can bank on DVD as a long term format.

Consumers, by and large, don't like to switch formats. DAT and Mini-Disc are good examples of superior technology that failed miserably (and I love my Mini-Disc deck). Once people are comfortable with a format they want to stick with it.

Qui Gon Jim
07-15-04, 11:05 AM
Originally posted by calhoun07
It will be. He will need a chip in his hand to conduct business.

Cash will never be obsolete because politicians won't be able to hide being bribed without untracable cash.

tanman
07-15-04, 01:39 PM
Originally posted by The Cow
The counter argument would be Vinyl records (LPs and 45s), Cassettes, and VHS. All very succesful, but for the most part faded. It's about the technology.

Yeah, but everything that has replaced it is just another physical item. And Vinyls are still going strong. Just ask any "true" audophile.

People can learn to pop a DVD into a DVD player rather then a VHS into a VCR but accessing your library on a computer is something that the majority of people just won't want to do.

Think about it. How much would all of this cost? The minimum is a very expensive computer. How much do you need to access a DVD? You can use grandma's TV hook it up to a VCR and pop any DVD in. It is accessable to virtually the entire population. Many more people can add a $30 DVD player to their existing TV then a $1500 + computer.

tanman
07-15-04, 02:05 PM
Originally posted by WojtekZ
Apple has proved that people will buy music online without caring about a hard copy. Bill's 10 year target is NOT unrealistic. Being a network engineer, I see it as plausible that we see network speeds that would easily allow for streamed HD content available almost anywhere (wireless is a remote but plausible possibility). With an HD stream being about 19Mbps today, this is about 2-4x the speed of residential broadband services available in my neighbourhood today. My Internet connection today is about 200x faster than it was 10 years ago.

I also believe that we may be less than 10 years away from seeing near simultaneous release in theatres and DVD.

A couple of things.

1. How many people have BOUGHT music online? As compared with how many have bought a CD? I don't think it will catch on. An earlier poster was right in that people don't value data as much as a physical object. I see no reason to purchase music online that I can just buy on a CD or download for free As for an electronic version I have virtually all of my music ripped on my PC from the CDs so I can make any mixes that I like but I still own the original CD. The only reason why legitimate downloaded music is marginally successful is because people want specific tracks. You're not going to but specific chapters of a movie.

2. How much more does it cost to download and play an mp3 then it does to play a CD. A whole lot more. For one you need a computer. Surely you have some Aunt or Grandma who doesn't have a computer but has a CD player.

3. Music is totally different then music. The portability of music is important to people. They like listening to it at home, in the car, or on the go. Movies are a 2 hour committment that you can't just watch while driving or taking the dog out for a walk.

Don't you understand that as a Tech guy you are only a very small subset of the population that has access to the things required for movies on demand. The vast majority of people can afford a $30 DVD player to hook up to their TV.

duy37
07-15-04, 02:25 PM
i dont think we'll see this in 10 years..maybe 50 when it'll make sense because of limited resources and overcrowding. storing 1000 dvds takes up ALOT of space not to mention the hassle of organizing your collection. sure its a great hobby but it does take up alot of time.

though i love to show off my massive dvd collection, the minimalist in me wants a super clean living room, with the minimal items, not having to go out to best buy to buy dvds or wait for the mailbox...just turn on my TV and watch whatever movie i own.

but who knows, the future is unperdictable.

jough
07-15-04, 03:15 PM
The problem with digital music and video: Digital Rights Management.

With a CD or DVD no one can stop you from watching or listening to the same content over and over and over. You're going to your brother-in-law's house for a picnic? Bring over that new "50 First Dates" DVD for everyone to enjoy. Leave it there so their kids can watch it.

When you get it back, you decide that you don't want to watch it anymore and you sell it to someone else, who watches if 1,000 times and then sells it to someone else.

With DRM and digital music and video, all of a sudden the studios/companies want to limit how many times you can watch or listen to something, and where. You can't sell/give the files to a friend, and even in your own home you can't transfer the files to another device without PERMISSION.

You can only transfer files to a portable device so many times, and can only transfer to one device.

Now, I won't go so far to say that people who download from sites like iTunes are all morons, but they must either be not aware of the arcane restrictions or just don't care.

Me, I have no love for the CD. If I can download music at a high bitrate from a site and have the freedom to do whatever the hell I want with it just as I would an MP3 file that I ripped from a CD, I'd download and purchase a LOT more music.

That's why file trading systems are flourishing. It's not that people want to be pirates and try to get something for free (although of course some people would fit that description) - it's just that there ARE NO LEGAL ALTERNATIVES. Companies aren't offering a legit alternative for downloading that doesn't come with bizarre licensing restrictions. I don't want someone knowing every time I listen to an album, because my computer/device has to go out to the internet to make sure I have permission to play it or not.

If these problems still haven't been solved for music, where the bandwidth has nearly caught up to the technology, it's a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG way off for movies.

When you can deal with the data as easily and unencumbered as you would the physical disc, THEN it will be a viable alternative to CD/DVD. Until then, it's just the pipe-dream of content holders.

They aren't meeting a market demand with a download/non-media system. They're trying to cut manufacturing costs.

Who wants this other than content providers?

BassDude
07-15-04, 03:45 PM
Don't people who download music burn them onto CDs anyway? Creating a physical product that lasts after the HD is erased, they sell the PC, ActiveX ruins their registry, etc...

I do...but i don't fit the profile. Don't own an MP3 player, etc.

I agree with those who say the average consumer wants a tangible product as opposed to digital bits.

And say what ya want about Gates...but he speaks..and we discuss it for 5 pages!

Feathers McGraw
07-15-04, 04:02 PM
Originally posted by B5Erik Consumers, by and large, don't like to switch formats. DAT and Mini-Disc are good examples of superior technology that failed miserably (and I love my Mini-Disc deck). Once people are comfortable with a format they want to stick with it.

Lots of good points there, I'll talk about just this one.

It's not so much comfortableness, it's more that there has to be a damn good reason to switch technologies, because you've invested so much into the previous standard.

With vinyl to cd's, it was better sound, smaller form factor, more durable packaging, and longer life. (Some of these aren't as good as promised, but c'est la vie).

With vhs to dvd, it was again better sound and video, *widescreen* (people vastly underrate how important this was), and extras like commentaries, deleted scenes, etc.

That's why I think successors to dvd like blu-ray are going to have a lot of trouble. There are no advantages in packaging, storage, extras etc. For many, the sound and video won't be noticeably better.

And even then, for most, they'll just decide that dvd quality is good enough. That's why cd is still going strong, they're good enough for most.

As other's have posted, the whole point of this Gate's thing is what he wants. He wants to sell your movie to you every time you watch it. Sell your spreadsheet to you every time you load it.

wz42
07-15-04, 05:53 PM
Originally posted by BassDude
And say what ya want about Gates...but he speaks..and we discuss it for 5 pages! ]

True however I suspect that's because no matter how hair brained his ideas are he has the ability to put it into beta so it'll be here; if it stays it'll be up to the consumer (hopefully).

Also people here are a little obesessed with anything to do with DVD (not that that's a bad thing). Even that one liner from the dude from Jeopardy has gotton two pages...

Playitagainsam
07-15-04, 06:48 PM
Originally posted by jough
The problem with digital music and video: Digital Rights Management.

With a CD or DVD no one can stop you from watching or listening to the same content over and over and over. You're going to your brother-in-law's house for a picnic? Bring over that new "50 First Dates" DVD for everyone to enjoy. Leave it there so their kids can watch it.

When you get it back, you decide that you don't want to watch it anymore and you sell it to someone else, who watches if 1,000 times and then sells it to someone else.

With DRM and digital music and video, all of a sudden the studios/companies want to limit how many times you can watch or listen to something, and where. You can't sell/give the files to a friend, and even in your own home you can't transfer the files to another device without PERMISSION.

You can only transfer files to a portable device so many times, and can only transfer to one device.

Now, I won't go so far to say that people who download from sites like iTunes are all morons, but they must either be not aware of the arcane restrictions or just don't care.

Me, I have no love for the CD. If I can download music at a high bitrate from a site and have the freedom to do whatever the hell I want with it just as I would an MP3 file that I ripped from a CD, I'd download and purchase a LOT more music.

That's why file trading systems are flourishing. It's not that people want to be pirates and try to get something for free (although of course some people would fit that description) - it's just that there ARE NO LEGAL ALTERNATIVES. Companies aren't offering a legit alternative for downloading that doesn't come with bizarre licensing restrictions. I don't want someone knowing every time I listen to an album, because my computer/device has to go out to the internet to make sure I have permission to play it or not.

If these problems still haven't been solved for music, where the bandwidth has nearly caught up to the technology, it's a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG way off for movies.

When you can deal with the data as easily and unencumbered as you would the physical disc, THEN it will be a viable alternative to CD/DVD. Until then, it's just the pipe-dream of content holders.

They aren't meeting a market demand with a download/non-media system. They're trying to cut manufacturing costs.

Who wants this other than content providers?

Bingo.
Excellent, painfully valid points.

Get Me Coffee
07-15-04, 07:24 PM
Originally posted by jough
They aren't meeting a market demand with a download/non-media system. They're trying to cut manufacturing costs.

You NAILED IT!

Zodiac_Speaking
07-15-04, 10:09 PM
Face it: While most of us here might switch to whatever the nearby future holds (HDDVD), the vast majority won't. Bill Gates will be obsolete in 10 years. Why? A little group I know called Project Mayhem.

But seriously, you had VHS which was the movie only, maybe some trailers, and lately some extras after the feature, but to access it or a spot in the film you had to painstakingly FF or Rewind to the part. DVD you have scene selections and everything dvd has to offer at a main menu. Guess what Blu-Ray or HD-DVD will have? Main menus! The vast majority won't be impressed enough to get rid of the dvds. Not enough people have HDTVs yet, and those who do, like me, can only enjoy 8 HD channels (well, atleast with Cox).

Qui Gon Jim
07-16-04, 08:11 AM
Originally posted by jough

Me, I have no love for the CD. If I can download music at a high bitrate from a site and have the freedom to do whatever the hell I want with it just as I would an MP3 file that I ripped from a CD, I'd download and purchase a LOT more music.

That's why file trading systems are flourishing. It's not that people want to be pirates and try to get something for free (although of course some people would fit that description) - it's just that there ARE NO LEGAL ALTERNATIVES. Companies aren't offering a legit alternative for downloading that doesn't come with bizarre licensing restrictions. I don't want someone knowing every time I listen to an album, because my computer/device has to go out to the internet to make sure I have permission to play it or not.

Great points, and let me add that the CD sales would be far further along the obsolesence path but for corporate greed. If, in it's prime, Napster had been able to come to legal agreements with the studios and work out a scheme where they made money, the studios made money while keeping it affordable for the masses, then I would say that digital music downloads would have a far greater market penetration. Problem was all the studios saw was dollar signs for themselves and lost sight of what the customers would want. By shutting down Napster they irreperably fractured the market into severall smaller but less user friendly alternatives.

Corporate short term greed blinded them to the big picture.

Qui Gon Jim
07-16-04, 08:19 AM
Originally posted by jonpeters
Face it: While most of us here might switch to whatever the nearby future holds (HDDVD), the vast majority won't. Bill Gates will be obsolete in 10 years. Why? A little group I know called Project Mayhem.

But seriously, you had VHS which was the movie only, maybe some trailers, and lately some extras after the feature, but to access it or a spot in the film you had to painstakingly FF or Rewind to the part. DVD you have scene selections and everything dvd has to offer at a main menu. Guess what Blu-Ray or HD-DVD will have? Main menus! The vast majority won't be impressed enough to get rid of the dvds. Not enough people have HDTVs yet, and those who do, like me, can only enjoy 8 HD channels (well, atleast with Cox).

I disagree with this argument in one way: The switch to HD-DVD will be gradual, and as the players come down in price, they will replace standard DVD players. It won't make your current library obsolete, and won't be a huge change like VHS to DVD or Vinyl to CD.

It will be a slow transition but just look at video games. The consumer of video games has no problem updating their format every five years or so. When there is a transition now, backwards comatibility is going to be built in (GB to GBA, XB to XB2, PS to PS2 to PS3, now evern GC to GC2).

HD-DVD will take all the things people love abot DVDs and add better picture and larger storage capacity.

TOPDAWG
07-16-04, 08:51 AM
I don't think something like this will ever fly. Odd as it may sound folks want something to show for their money. If they buy a movie and they have nothing on the shelf they feel like they never got anything. Just like game fans say games cost to much cause all they look at is a case and CD they don't think of whats on the CD what you pay for and crap.

It's like buying a car off someone and having them just bring it over for ya when you need it.

PS. I'd still be Bill Gates bitch no matter WTF the man would say about crap.

nightmaster
07-16-04, 06:16 PM
Originally posted by jough

They aren't meeting a market demand with a download/non-media system. They're trying to cut manufacturing costs.
Who wants this other than content providers?

I had NOT given this alot of thought. You are right on the money, jough.
To have a system where you just watch whatever you want whenever you want by calling it up on a remote. What does that do?
The companies are no longer going have to go to the trouble and expenditure of manufacturing discs, cases, sleeves, wrapping, shipping the product to market......Gates has figured out a WONDERFUL way to:
Put lots and LOTS of people out of work.
Dictate pricing of services.
Sell something to the consumer that they don't in actuality physically posess. No resale value on ebay or the pawnshops there, by Golly.

Now, I've brought up the comments made by the music business before when we were told how the CD prices would PLUMMET once CD's were established and vinyl was gone. When did that happen again? Oh yeah. It never did happen, in spite of the fact that CDs are far less expensive to produce than vinyl was. Give 'em a chance to physically sell us nothing for a price and they'll be all OVER that.

TBFL
07-16-04, 08:01 PM
http://www.viewaskew.com/tv/leno/flyingcar.html


More Flying Car.....

BizRodian
07-16-04, 08:33 PM
People can get eveything on their computers right now, and very few do. People like to collect physical things.

donald gregory
07-18-04, 11:04 PM
Wow, this is a long thread with an interesting discussion and some great points that have been brought up.

People have mentioned how much consumers love dvds, but what hasn't been mentioned was how much studios and companies love dvds. They are much cheaper to produce in bulk than VHS, and they can charge more because the consumer values them more. Studios do not want to see DVDs disappear anytime soon. They are the cash cow that revitalized a stagnant entertainment marketplace.

The Movies On Demand will take a bite out of the dvd market absolutely, eventually. But On Demand isn't that much more convenient than popping a dvd in the player, whereas, (and this is the BIG reason why dvds and cds are so successful) both dvds and cds are much more convenient than VHS and tapes because there's no rewinding, or having to fast forward/rewind search for what you're looking for.