DVDTalk HSX Leaderboard: Week 8 (Box Office Game) [Archive]

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Groucho

06-02-04, 11:06 AM

Here is the leaderboard for the DVDTalk HSX League as of 6/2. Interested in joining? Check the next post down for rules and other information.

The Best

<Table border><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">Rank</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk Username</TD><TD ALIGN="left">HSX Username</TD><TD ALIGN="left" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">Net Worth</TD><TD ALIGN="center">Last Week</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">1</TD><TD ALIGN="left">JasonF</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_JasonF</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$12,213,283.97</TD><TD ALIGN="center">1</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">2</TD><TD ALIGN="left">MrN</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_mrn</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$6,664,390.00</TD><TD ALIGN="center">3</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">3</TD><TD ALIGN="left">movieking</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Movieking</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$5,790,880.82</TD><TD ALIGN="center">2</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">4</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Antennaball</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_antennaball</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$5,617,919.12</TD><TD ALIGN="center">6</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">5</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Jackskeleton</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTALK_Jackskeleton</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$5,502,435.13</TD><TD ALIGN="center">5</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">6</TD><TD ALIGN="left">cruzness</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_cruzness</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$4,884,928.61</TD><TD ALIGN="center">4</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">7</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Groucho</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Groucho2</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$4,725,591.93</TD><TD ALIGN="center">-</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">8</TD><TD ALIGN="left">rushmore223</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_rushmore223</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$4,634,814.83</TD><TD ALIGN="center">9</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">9</TD><TD ALIGN="left">devilshalo</TD><TD ALIGN="left">devilshalo</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$4,602,231.56</TD><TD ALIGN="center">-</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="center">10</TD><TD ALIGN="left">luckymepooh</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_luckymepooh</TD><TD ALIGN="right" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat:$#,##0.00">$4,546,523.33</TD><TD ALIGN="center">10</TD></TR></Table>

The Rest (in alphabetical order)

<Table border><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Alien Redrum</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_AlienRedrum</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Angus Scrimm</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_angusscrimm</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Anjanettea</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Anjanettea</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">B.A.</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_BA</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">BadlyDrawnBoy</TD><TD ALIGN="left">BadlyDrawnBoy</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">BRIAN_1972</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_BRIAN_1972</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Corvin</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Corvin</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">dimitrios3</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_dimitrios3</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">DodgingCars</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_DodgingCars</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">DRG</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_DRG</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">drjay</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_drjay</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">filmerp</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Dvdtalk_filmerp</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">flashburn</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_flashburn</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">fnordboy</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_fnordboy</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Fred C. Dobbs</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_FredCDobbs</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">gcribbs</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Dvdtalk_gcribbs</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">genapp</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_genapp</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Giles</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Giles</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">glassdragon</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDtalk_glassdragon</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">innocentfreak</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Bizastard</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">ivelostr2</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_ivelostr2</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">j123vt_99</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_j123vt_99</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Jack's Smirking</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_JacksSmirk</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">jdpatri</TD><TD ALIGN="left">jdpatri</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">J-Dubya</TD><TD ALIGN="left">JDubya</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">JNielsen</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_jnielsen</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Jocko6577</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Jocko6577</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">johnglass</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_johnglass</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Jonny2k1</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Jonny2k1</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">kninestile</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_kninestile</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Kumar J</TD><TD ALIGN="left">Dvdtalk_KumarJ</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">majorjoe23</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTALK_majorjoe23</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">mano365</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_mano365</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">matome</TD><TD ALIGN="left">matome</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">MFRONE</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_MFRONE</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Mittman</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Mittman</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">mookyman</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Mookyman</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Mordred</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Mordred</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">mrglass</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTALK_mrglass</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">namja</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_namja</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">OutcastJA</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_outcastja</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">RoboDad</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_RoboDad</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">RyoHazuki</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_RyoHazuki</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Sherbz</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Sherbz</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">shill66</TD><TD ALIGN="left">dvdtalk_swh</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">shill66 (alt)</TD><TD ALIGN="left">dvdtalk_swh2</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">shimmoril</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_shimmoril</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">solipsta</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_solipsta</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Suprmallet</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Suprmallet</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">TeeSeeJay</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_TeeSeeJay</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">The Dude</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_TheDude</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">TomOpus</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_TomOpus</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Trigger</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Trigger</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">tywebb1976</TD><TD ALIGN="left">dvd_talk_tywebb1976</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Venom</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Venom</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">vism</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_vism</TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Vryce</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_Vryce</TD></TR></Table>

The Noobs (Players Added Since Last Week)

<Table border><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD ALIGN="left">Vonner</TD><TD ALIGN="left">DVDTalk_vonner</TD></TR></Table>

Groucho

06-02-04, 11:07 AM

What is the Hollywood Stock Exchange?

From the website (www.hsx.com): “Buy shares of your favorite actors and their new movies. Watch their values rise or fall based on their success. Prices soar with a blockbuster opening at the box office and plummet with a bomb no one went to see.” For those who have never played, the game is as a complicated or as easy as you want to make it (much like the real stock market).

Now, I know several of you already have HSX accounts. To keep things fair, in order to participate in the league you’ll need to start up a new account. Here’s what you need to do to join the league:

1. Go to www.hsx.com and start up a new account.

2. You can use any username you want, although if everybody used the format “DVDTalk_[DVDTalk Username]” it would make things easier to track. For example, if my DVDTalk username was "Stockbroker" my account for the league will be DVDTalk_Stockbroker.

When signing up, put down BadlyDrawnBoy in the "Did a friend refer you?" column. Feel free to take advantage of any of the special offers and freebies offered at this time as well.

3. After you sign up, go to “Account Information” and set your “Screen Name” to be exactly the same as your screen name here at DVDTalk. This will help avoid confusion.

4. Come back here and post your HSX user name. You need to have a new account, or I won’t add you to the league.

5. Entry into the league is always open...we welcome newcomers!

Remember, new players: add this week's "Bottom Feeder" (BadlyDrawnBoy) as your referral when signing up!

Mano

06-02-04, 04:56 PM

So what calls and puts did everyone pick up today? I picked up the calls for PITC2 and STEPF and the put for GARFI, all for $20 mil. I'm not sure what to short yet.

Vonner

06-02-04, 06:56 PM

I took the call on PITC2 and the put on GARFI.

devilshalo

06-02-04, 07:04 PM

I have no idea what to do for Garfield. It's a crap shoot because I keep thinking about what Scooby Poo did.

solipsta

06-02-04, 10:05 PM

I think Garfield will crap out.....about 13 mil or so at the most.

I expect PITC2 and STEPF to go way above the calls...

Groucho

06-03-04, 12:00 AM

Looks like I'm the lone gunman here, taking the PUT on STEPF. While I don't think it'll bomb, I don't think it'll make $20 million either. My prediction: $15 million.

gcribbs

06-03-04, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by Groucho
Looks like I'm the lone gunman here, taking the PUT on STEPF. While I don't think it'll bomb, I don't think it'll make $20 million either. My prediction: $15 million.

I agree. STEPF will not hit 20 million. Of course that does not mean you can not make some money off the call.

I am not sure about GARFI yet. PITC2 will hit 40 million or close IMO.

Trigger

06-03-04, 12:46 AM

congrats to JasonF for kicking the shit out of everyone here. Got any stock tips? ;)

I'm digging my way out of the hole... I've got some that I bought right. Hero at 16, FH911 at 24, and Riddick at 60... Riddick dipped for awhile, but now it has shot up. I think I even bought more while it dipped. I am pretty spread out, but I have 250k to invest in something good. Any ideas?

I got a call on Riddick - that'll clear 20M for sure (I think). I don't ever do the calls or puts... hope this works out.

Jackskeleton

06-03-04, 01:45 AM

Wow, the top 2-5 are really close to each other. looks like it's going to be a fight to reach the #2 spot. Jason isn't going to have anything to worry for a long time. :p especially with the ability to buy a ton of shares of the latest new releases. Good show. Good show indeed.

karnblack

06-03-04, 01:52 AM

Just joined.

Username: DVDTalk_karnblack

This sounds fun. I'll post more after I get up to speed.

RyoHazuki

06-03-04, 03:09 AM

You jerks. I thought getting close to $4 mil would at least put me in the top 10. I really need The Ring 2 to skyrocket right now.

devilshalo

06-03-04, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by Groucho
Looks like I'm the lone gunman here, taking the PUT on STEPF. While I don't think it'll bomb, I don't think it'll make $20 million either. My prediction: $15 million.

I bought the PUT on Stepford Wives, also. Very little in terms of marketing. I doubt it will make $20M.

movieking

06-03-04, 06:52 AM

My thoughts:

Stepford Wives>Garfield>Chronicles of Riddick

Of course, I have been wrong before....

...although not about Bruce Almighty 2. It is up over 6 already today. Rough for anyone who shorted it, good for anyone who bought it low.

movieking

06-03-04, 09:04 AM

Anyone else think that Harry Potter is overvalued now? I don't see it doing the huge business that it seems to have been predicted.

Groucho

06-03-04, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by movieking
Stepford Wives>Garfield>Chronicles of Riddick:eek: :whofart:Originally posted by movieking
Anyone else think that Harry Potter is overvalued now? I don't see it doing the huge business that it seems to have been predicted. I don't think it is, especially when looking at the openings of the previous films. On the other hand, I don't think it's undervalued either.

B.A.

06-03-04, 09:14 AM

HP3CA finally started to drop this morning. I was wondering when it would peak.

Jackskeleton

06-03-04, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by movieking
My thoughts:

Stepford Wives>Garfield>Chronicles of Riddick

Of course, I have been wrong before....

...although not about Bruce Almighty 2. It is up over 6 already today. Rough for anyone who shorted it, good for anyone who bought it low.

No way, between the free ticket in pitch black re-release, the amount of advertisment for the film and so forth, Chronicles will do good numbers. Stepford may have the big hollywood names, but can you honestly ask any joe average on the street when the film comes out? Garfield, well as bad as it looks it will still draw in the younger crowd.

Groucho

06-03-04, 02:37 PM

One thing to consider about Garfield is that it has significant juggernauts competing for it's audience: Shrek 2 and Harry Potter. Stepford and Riddick on the other hand, are the pretty much the only game in town for their respective audiences.

devilshalo

06-03-04, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Garfield, well as bad as it looks it will still draw in the younger crowd.

Like I said... the freakin' Scooby Poo factor. I have no idea if it will be a hit, or will audiences wise up to the crap fest.

Jackskeleton

06-03-04, 09:55 PM

It's a tough call indeed. either welcome me into the 6 million club. w00t w00t. hopefully I'm not counting my chickens there since I just crossed the line. That Shrek2 warrent is really helping out with everything. a little under a million dollars right there alone. sweeeeeeeet

gcribbs

06-04-04, 12:08 AM

I am down a bit today. over 50k :(

gcribbs

06-04-04, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by RyoHazuki
You jerks. I thought getting close to $4 mil would at least put me in the top 10. I really need The Ring 2 to skyrocket right now.

personally I would dump ring 2. it is trading in a narrow range and the odds are you will not make much off it.

Since it is a long way from release the big money is not going to cause a huge move unless some big news comes out about it.

IMO :)

RyoHazuki

06-04-04, 01:30 AM

I dumped it in favor of F911. With the trailer and its quick arrival to theaters, I am hoping to make some serious coin.

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 01:48 AM

FH911 moved quickly.. damn quickly. once the trailer hit the forum I jumped up and bumped my stakes from 25000 to 50000. damn near made me 200k in one day.

gcribbs

06-04-04, 02:10 AM

The problem is that it will open in about 1000 theaters which means it will adjust at 2.9 x gross and have only 4 weeks to makes the money.

It will not make the 12 million it needs to hit the current market price unless it gets more theaters which is unlikely in this short of a release time.

Of course it could still go way up for a week or two and make you money.

I also think many people will be just as likely to avoid and talk this movie down so the actual ticket sales might be hard to guess.

YMMV. IMO....

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 02:40 AM

I don't care what it actually makes, by then I'll already have shorted and sold the hell out of it. :)

B.A.

06-04-04, 09:08 AM

BWSH2 is dropping like a bomb. Hope no one loses too much money.

rushmore223

06-04-04, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by B.A.
BWSH2 is dropping like a bomb. Hope no one loses too much money.

I'm not gonna sell my Shrek 2 BW, it's a long summer, and it will easily make $100 million over the warrant.

Just gotta weather the storm.

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 01:34 PM

Oh man, that was a hit. 100k right there in that move. brought me back down to the 5 million club. :( :p

The high fee's for jumping ship to invest in another item doesn't seem all that worth it. perhaps folks just wanted to pump in that extra cash to potter. Either way, it's going to cover that warrent price by the end of the week. :p 10 point drop. ouch, that just hurt.

Groucho

06-04-04, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
100k right there in that move. brought me back down to the 5 million club.It sucks to have to "slum it" with the little people, doesn't it? ;)

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 02:03 PM

Yup. feel so... ugh.. dirty. :p

Vryce

06-04-04, 02:06 PM

BWSH2 1000 H$76.91 H$86.91 -10.50 H$86,910.00 H$10,000.00 +13% Trade

:(

But I think it will be fine, it should definetly make the mark by the deadline. It just sucks to see it down so much.

This one looks much better :)

BWHP3 5000 H$32.32 H$40.36 +1.30 H$201,800.00 H$40,222.00 +24% Trade

And of course this one

HP3CA 10000 H$12.60 H$16.43 +2.34 H$164,300.00 H$38,350.00 +30% Trade

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 02:11 PM

Yeah, looks like you jumped on it a bit later at 76 per share. But there is no way that it wont hit it's mark. it looks to do 100 more than the strike price. I assume people jumped off it so they could invest the money into potter since it's already a given they could jump back on before sep 7th.

Vryce

06-04-04, 02:15 PM

I had it earlier, but sold it when it went up. I regretted it, so I bought a little more. I should have kept it, but I thought I was selling off another stock. Stupid me. :(

I only had 400 shares, but I bought it for

05/20/2004 14:01 Buy BWSH2 200 H$19.30 H$(3,898.60) Success

and

05/23/2004 21:33 Buy BWSH2 200 H$25.15 H$(5,080.30) Success

I'd still be up a lot even with it down 11.

B.A.

06-04-04, 02:58 PM

I'm about to break the $4 million mark since I shorted that BWSH2. :up:

TomOpus

06-04-04, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by rushmore223
I'm not gonna sell my Shrek 2 BW, it's a long summer, and it will easily make $100 million over the warrant.

Just gotta weather the storm. I'm hanging onto mine too... but it's tough to see it drop so much. -eek-

Jackskeleton

06-04-04, 04:32 PM

Yeah, it's all about what your plans are for it and the money you have invested. at this point the fee's to take your cash out of the 859k stock have to be huge. So if you are going to pump it into something else then you better be sure that it can make back the fee's from both stock options.

I'm holding on to it. I would hate to see my "+350%" percentage go away. :p

B.A.

06-04-04, 05:32 PM

I'm just shorting it until it bottoms out, then I will pick it back up again. Even if I subtract the fees given from adding/dropping I will still come out ahead by quite a bit. I got in on it early, but not as early as some of you.

gcribbs

06-04-04, 09:49 PM

I bought it at $5 a share then sold it at one point and rebought it at $21 a share so selling it is not real worth it.

I figured if I missed the cover on a sell short cover rebuy strategy I could lose money after the four commissions.

Jackskeleton

06-05-04, 01:12 AM

Yeah, I picked it up at five and then shorted it when it was first falling, then picked it up at 17 when it was on the rise again and it hasn't stopped till now. Not worth the fee's. what profit there is to be made will be eaten with the fees.

gcribbs

06-05-04, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Yeah, I picked it up at five and then shorted it when it was first falling, then picked it up at 17 when it was on the rise again and it hasn't stopped till now. Not worth the fee's. what profit there is to be made will be eaten with the fees.

plus I used to think it was going to be worth $100 a share now it looks like it will be worth $180 a share -eek-

So my $21 purchase price of 10,000 shares will net me $1.59 million profit and you $1.63 million -eek-

JasonF

06-05-04, 02:19 PM

Here are some numbers for Harry Potter this weekend, based on Box Office Mojo's report of $40.8 million for Friday

Worst-Case Estimate for Total Weekend B.O: $110.16 million (2.7 internal multiplier)
HPOT3: Halt -- $278.08; Adjust -- $319.46; change +$41.38
HP3CA: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $17.08; delist: $30.16; change +$13.08
HP3PU: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $.05; delist: $0; change -$.05

Low Estimate for Total Weekend B.O.: $118.3 million (2.9 internal multiplier)
HPOT3: Halt -- $278.08; Adjust -- $343.07; change +$64.99
HP3CA: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $17.08; delist: $38.30; change +$21.22
HP3PU: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $.05; delist: $0; change -$.05

High Estimate for Total Weekend B.O.: $126.48 million (3.1 internal multiplier)
HPOT3: Halt -- $278.08; Adjust -- $366.79; change +$88.71
HP3CA: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $17.08; delist: $46.48; change +$29.40
HP3PU: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $.05; delist: $0; change -$.05

Best Case Estimate for Total Weekend B.O.: $134.64 million (3.3 internal multiplier)
HPOT3: Halt -- $278.08; Adjust -- $390.45; change +$112.37
HP3CA: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $17.08; delist: $54.64; change +$37.56
HP3PU: Strike -- $80; Halt -- $.05; delist: $0; change -$.05

HPOTT and HPOT2 had 2.8 and 3.0 internal multipliers, respectively.

movieking

06-05-04, 02:29 PM

A lot better than I had though. Oh well, another big loss for me this weekend. I wonder if it will beat Spider-man. I hope so.

Jackskeleton

06-05-04, 02:38 PM

another big loss for you? what did you do short potter?

RyoHazuki

06-05-04, 03:47 PM

Holy crap. I signed in this morning and for no apparent reason, I'm down about $800,000.

JasonF

06-05-04, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by RyoHazuki
Holy crap. I signed in this morning and for no apparent reason, I'm down about $800,000.

Ports usually bleed red on Saturdays -- because it's commission-free, people tend to sell a lot of things they've been holding and want to get rid of. Usually, things bounce back by Sunday, paticularly once people sell off the openers and put that money into other things.

RyoHazuki

06-05-04, 04:11 PM

This wasn't prices dropping or anything. Just my net worth was like $800k less.

JasonF

06-05-04, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by RyoHazuki
This wasn't prices dropping or anything. Just my net worth was like $800k less.

If the "Today's Change" of the individual securities you have doesn't add up to the total "Today's Change," there are two possibilities: either something screwy is going on, or you were penalized for some reason. The standard HSX penalty is 25% of the port's value; based on your port size, $800k seems about right. You might want to send a polite note to support@hsx.com explaining what you see in your port and why you think it's incorrect, and asking for them to let you know what's going on.

RyoHazuki

06-05-04, 07:13 PM

I sent an email. I wonder what I could have done that would result in penalizing.

glassdragon

06-06-04, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Vryce
BWSH2 1000 H$76.91 H$86.91 -10.50 H$86,910.00 H$10,000.00 +13% Trade

:(

But I think it will be fine, it should definetly make the mark by the deadline. It just sucks to see it down so much.

This one looks much better :)

BWHP3 5000 H$32.32 H$40.36 +1.30 H$201,800.00 H$40,222.00 +24% Trade

And of course this one

HP3CA 10000 H$12.60 H$16.43 +2.34 H$164,300.00 H$38,350.00 +30% Trade

BWSH2 10000 H$19.04 H$75.91 0 H$759,100.00 H$568,700.00 +298%

and

BWHP3 10000 H$19.04 H$45.11 0 H$451,100.00 H$260,700.00 +136%

there you go ;)

gcribbs

06-06-04, 10:52 AM

Well BWSH2 is back towards the upside a bit today.

Now if only my other stocks would move up a bit :)

movieking

06-06-04, 11:11 AM

I shorted some Potter, but since it was so expensive, I didn't have a lot to short regardless. I have definitely been on a losing streak lately. I would say that the last 5 to 10 stocks that I put a considerable amount of money into have crapped out for me. Oh well, hopefully it will turn around soon.

gcribbs

06-06-04, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by movieking
I shorted some Potter, but since it was so expensive, I didn't have a lot to short regardless. I have definitely been on a losing streak lately. I would say that the last 5 to 10 stocks that I put a considerable amount of money into have crapped out for me. Oh well, hopefully it will turn around soon.

It will turn around. some of this is luck and much is timing. I have guessed wrong on a bunch of stocks also.

As long as you end up guessing right more than wrong you will start going back up again.

Only JasonF seems to never be wrong ;)

gcribbs

06-06-04, 12:12 PM

actually with the drop down to 33.5 mil on Sat and with a possible drop again on Sunday the high numbers for Potter might not happen. It looks like it will be under 100 million or close to that.

Looks like the BWHP3 price is reacting to the news.

JasonF

06-06-04, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by gcribbs
Only JasonF seems to never be wrong ;)

Not this week. Notwithstanding my analysis earlier this thread (which were apparently based on overinflated Friday numbers), it looks like HPOT3 will adjust down slightly.

By the way, did people find my Friday-number analysis useful? I could keep doing it when I have time on Saturday mornings, but I won't bother if nobody cares.

gcribbs

06-06-04, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by JasonF
Not this week. Notwithstanding my analysis earlier this thread (which were apparently based on overinflated Friday numbers), it looks like HPOT3 will adjust down slightly.

By the way, did people find my Friday-number analysis useful? I could keep doing it when I have time on Saturday mornings, but I won't bother if nobody cares.

I liked the numbers.

I would be interested in seeing them in the future if you have the time.

movieking

06-06-04, 02:02 PM

Keep the numbers coming, if you have the time. I would be interested in seeing them as well.

movieking

06-06-04, 02:36 PM

The adjust is in: Harry Potter is down $9.41

Whoo!!! I actually made a couple of bucks shorting it!

JasonF

06-06-04, 02:54 PM

OK -- I can't promise I'll be available every Saturday to do this, but when I'm around, I'll post my analysis.

movieking

06-06-04, 02:58 PM

Question for you veteran traders that was probably posed in one of the earlier threads but I missed:

Can you short puts/calls and if so, how does it work? Just curious.

Jackskeleton

06-06-04, 03:08 PM

Just short them. :p since they cash out at zero you get all the profit from what you just shorted.

say for example this short:
GARCA 10000 H$1.87 H$0.96 -1.30 H$27,800.00 H$9,100.0

When and if I'm correct on a garfield short I will gain 27,800 since it cashes out at zero.

Jackskeleton

06-06-04, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by movieking
I shorted some Potter, but since it was so expensive, I didn't have a lot to short regardless. I have definitely been on a losing streak lately. I would say that the last 5 to 10 stocks that I put a considerable amount of money into have crapped out for me. Oh well, hopefully it will turn around soon.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (HPOT3)
Halted: H$278.08
Weekend: $92.645M
Adjusted: H$268.67

Be thankful you shorted it. :D 10 bucks per share. w00t w00t. :p

damn, that's gotta suck.

Groucho

06-06-04, 03:55 PM

Wow, I would have been happy with Jason's "Worst Case Estimate." Didn't even come close to that. :(

B.A.

06-06-04, 04:42 PM

The adjust on Harry Potter sucked. :(

TomOpus

06-06-04, 06:54 PM

Glad I didn't hold HPOT3 and shorted the HWHP3 before the tumble :)

Jackskeleton

06-06-04, 08:22 PM

oh man, that's just gotta suck for most of you.

Jackskeleton

06-06-04, 08:49 PM

It should be interesting to see the results of the list tonight.

cruzness

06-06-04, 11:42 PM

Is it just me or does anyone else think that the Sunday estimate for HPOT3 seem like it could be low? The theaters were packed for the afternoon show.

devilshalo

06-07-04, 01:37 AM

I didn't gain or fall... kinda evened out.

gcribbs

06-07-04, 02:21 AM

not bad I am only down $114k in early trading :(

Jackskeleton

06-07-04, 02:41 AM

I had a nice weekend. a gain of 500k on sunday alone. and I didn't even touch the potter fund. Then again that call/put will push me up some tomorrow. SWWEEEEEEEEET. :)

Vryce

06-07-04, 07:42 AM

So, does that mean since the Harry Potter Calls/Puts are halted, that the current values are what they will be?

Just wondering, since I really have no clue what I'm doing. Should I sell off what I have so I have money to put into other things?

Weekend wasn't too good for me. I'm down about 32K.

Groucho

06-07-04, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Vryce
So, does that mean since the Harry Potter Calls/Puts are halted, that the current values are what they will be?No. They will be adjusted tonight (7pm Eastern) based on potter's weekend gross (92 million). Since the strike price was 80 million, the call will delist down to 12, and the put will delist down to 0.

You can't buy or sell them any more at this point...all you can do is sit back and wait for them to delist.

Vryce

06-07-04, 09:18 AM

HPOT3 1000 H$213.82 H$252.92 -15.75 H$252,920.00 H$39,100.00 +18% Trade

Ouch. :(

And most of my other stocks are down as well...

I'm at about 44K loss now...

I don't think I was any good at picking anything. I didn't use any shorts, because I don't know how they work much less what I'm doing. I just picked stuff I thought would be a safe bet.

Though I don't think anyone expected the Harry Potter situation.

Trigger

06-07-04, 09:20 AM

I didn't touch any of the harry potter movies.

Vryce

06-07-04, 09:26 AM

I've got some in both 4 and 5, and they are down as well. Though its probably a reaction the the HP3 news.

I'm considering dumping everything, taking a hit and starting again. But I think the fees to sell off would be too great. Unless I wait for the fee free day.. Is there such a thing?

Groucho

06-07-04, 09:29 AM

There is a 24-hour commission free trading period every weekend between Saturday 1pm (Eastern) and Sunday 1pm (Eastern). If you're going to dump everything, that's the time to do it.

Another extreme alternative is to reset your account. You can do this once per season, and it sets you back to H$2 million with no holdings (as if you were a new player again).

devilshalo

06-07-04, 09:57 AM

Hope some of you bought into the LVBON ipo over the weekend. Anything with Peter Jackson attached should do nicely for a short while.

Vryce

06-07-04, 08:04 PM

Hmmm.. i seem to have made a little on the HP3 call.

It delisted at $13.69. I bought it for about 12.61 or so..

Though I'm down about 86K so far today. :(

Jackskeleton

06-07-04, 08:12 PM

yeah, it didn't do much. Atleast potter pays off something after crapping out on the weekend.

B.A.

06-07-04, 08:28 PM

Instead of adding the money from the HP3CA delist - they subtracted it from my account! :mad:

Jackskeleton

06-07-04, 08:44 PM

whaaaaa?

B.A.

06-07-04, 08:48 PM

Yeah, instead of adding the $136k+, they subtracted it so I am even worse off than I was before. If it is still like that in the morning, I'll have to write an email.

Jackskeleton

06-07-04, 11:07 PM

FH911 is just been on fire going up like crazy. in other news, the Potter Warrent is funny. it went up and made tons of cash, now it's crashing down and making even more. baw ha ha ha ha ha

B.A.

06-07-04, 11:21 PM

I've made quite a bit shorting it - I'm glad I was at least ahead of the curve on that one.

gcribbs

06-08-04, 01:47 AM

Wow. Jack is sure making his run towards the top :)

and in spite of his "mistakes" Movieking is holding strong :)

Of course JasonF and MrN are holding on to 1 and 2 like they own the spots :)

I could keep going but I will someone else have some fun :)

Next weekend could make or break me. I figure break is more like it :)

RyoHazuki

06-08-04, 02:05 AM

No response yet from HSX about my missing $800k. Whats the deal?

gcribbs

06-08-04, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by RyoHazuki
No response yet from HSX about my missing $800k. Whats the deal?

I think it takes a day or two.

have you posted anything on the message boards?

Did they email you telling you any reason for the loss?

gcribbs

06-08-04, 06:46 AM

http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2004/jun11.php

interesting advance guesses. It looks like this site is expecting all three new openers to do slow business.

Jackskeleton

06-08-04, 06:59 AM

No way will chronicles do that low. sure it has heavy competition, but it's still the only new adult targeted item out there. Potter and Shrek 2 will fight it out for the younger audiance but the older crowd will be heading to Riddrick because besides Day After and Troy, it's the only thing adult targeted.

Garfield is going to get chewed out because of the flood of child targeted films out there right now. Stepford will face typical female crowds and split the date flick audiance.

interesting week indeed.

gcribbs

06-08-04, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
No way will chronicles do that low. sure it has heavy competition, but it's still the only new adult targeted item out there. Potter and Shrek 2 will fight it out for the younger audiance but the older crowd will be heading to Riddrick because besides Day After and Troy, it's the only thing adult targeted.

Garfield is going to get chewed out because of the flood of child targeted films out there right now. Stepford will face typical female crowds and split the date flick audiance.

interesting week indeed.

I didn't think so either for Riddick although the guesses from the week before were very accurate.

if he is right it will hit only around a $61 adjust for the weekend -eek-

Jackskeleton

06-08-04, 07:10 AM

well it's currently at $68.83 and rising. So if people do follow suit his views then it would be wise to short the stock as it will be coming down. I'm going to sit out on that option. the call is also rising so I don't think it's to believable till other estimates come out wed and thurs.

TomOpus

06-08-04, 08:18 AM

Man, Saturday killed me. So many bad decisions :( But, between Sunday and Monday I gained H$600k and jumped from #16 to #10. w00t!

gcribbs

06-08-04, 02:58 PM

I am on a rollercoaster.

up and down.

I am tempted to sell everything so I can watch a movie today without wanting to check my progress -eek-

RyoHazuki

06-08-04, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by gcribbs
I think it takes a day or two.

have you posted anything on the message boards?

Did they email you telling you any reason for the loss? Its been a couple of days.

No I haven't. Im afraid of message boards.

No they haven't.

Jackskeleton

06-09-04, 02:05 AM

Well what a decent day. :)

gcribbs

06-09-04, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by Jackskeleton
Well what a decent day. :)

It sure looks like it :)

you are starting to grow fast. A few more weeks and you will be making JasonF sweat :)

JasonF

06-09-04, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by gcribbs
It sure looks like it :)

you are starting to grow fast. A few more weeks and you will be making JasonF sweat :)

Between Jack and MrN (along with my lackluster performance for the last week or so), it wouldn't surprise me to see myself knocked out of my #1 position within the next few weeks.

Uh ... I mean ... bring it on, bee-otches! My HSX mojo is strong, and I shall crush all of you. We're going to STEPF, and we're going to TRMNL, and we're going to WCHIC, and we're going to 2BROS, and we're going to FH911. And then we're going to SPID2! Yeeeeaaaarrrrggghhh!


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