I thought maybe I'll do this with every big summer movie until people start to get bored with them.
How much do you guys think the Wolfgang Petersen film will do opening weekend? It has a superb cast and a sweeping epic feel to it, but it is rated R which could hinder some of its box office intake.
I think Troy will do around 35 million, but I see this film having strong legs. If the good reviews and the word of mouth is strong it could help Troy be a true blockbuster.
Past polls:
Van Helsing (http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=361912)
cruzness
05-09-04, 11:48 PM
Right around 55-60 million. The R rating will keep it from doing super blockbuster numbers but this film should have legs considering the casting.
caiman
05-09-04, 11:51 PM
I guess 55 million.
I REALLY want this movie to be good. It has so much going for it. Some of the early reviews worry me a little though.
TomOpus
05-09-04, 11:53 PM
I haven't seen a screen count yet.. but I was thinking it would average about $3800 - $4100 per screen.
whynotsmile
05-09-04, 11:57 PM
dont forget, the film is 2:45 minutes
Matthew Chmiel
05-10-04, 12:17 AM
Originally posted by TomOpus
I haven't seen a screen count yet.. but I was thinking it would average about $3800 - $4100 per screen.
The film is opening on 3250 screens come Friday, and do you mean $3800 - 4100 per day or for the entire weekend? Cause if that's the entire weekend average then that's ****ing awful. :)
TomOpus
05-10-04, 12:19 AM
Cool... thanks Matthew. yeah, per day :)
I'll say ~$38 million.
matome
05-10-04, 08:56 AM
R-rated and 2hr 45min? This ain't no Passion, so $45 mil.
Groucho
05-10-04, 09:01 AM
35-50 million is my vote. That's possibly a bit too generous, we'll see.
Geofferson
05-10-04, 09:50 AM
$38M
MrN
05-10-04, 12:02 PM
I think if Van Helsing managed to make $50+M then Troy will make around $60M.
fryinpan1
05-10-04, 02:12 PM
I hope it does well, but I predict 45-50 million opening weekend.
FiveO
05-10-04, 07:03 PM
36.2 Million.
Just a guess.
Dr. DVD
05-10-04, 07:48 PM
I'll guess about $44 million.
fumanstan
05-10-04, 08:33 PM
35-50. It oughta do better then Gladtiaor's numbers thanks to Pitt and Bloom.
Gyno Rhino
05-10-04, 10:29 PM
I think Troy will clear the 50 mark.
mdc3000
05-10-04, 11:56 PM
45million...
MATT
B.A.
05-11-04, 12:23 AM
$51 mil
Dabaomb
05-11-04, 01:51 AM
I voted for $75 million. I mean if Van Helsing can make $55 million, then I think that Troy will do much bigger #s. Gladiator movies are huge and I think that Pitt & Bloom will draw the female audience in.
This is my second most anticipated summer movie after Spider Man 2. I've been wantin' to see this since the trailers in the Fall.
Also, to the OP, when makin' a frequency distribution poll, I have some suggestions (I'm studyin' for the Chartered Financial Analyst Exam so all this stuff is fresh in my mind).
1) Define an interval that has an equal range. (e.g. your first interval is 20, then 15, 15, 25, 25). You can do it in increments of 10, 15, or even 20. You have up to 10 choices in a poll so if you went by 15 million intervals it could be 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, etc.
2) Your intervals need to be mutually exclusive, i.e. the values can't overlap (e.g. if you think that the movie is gonna make $50 million, do you choose $35-50 million or $50-75 million?) To fix that just use the <= (Less than or equal too)
The Zizz
05-11-04, 04:00 AM
$40 million.
Rivero
05-11-04, 07:26 AM
$60 Million. You heard it here first.
fryinpan1
05-11-04, 09:58 AM
The Weekend Warrior projects $67 million for Troy.
55ish.
Long run time and R rating looks limiting. But a lot of advertising.
Jackskeleton
05-11-04, 10:35 AM
I think the long run time is the major factor that is going to come into play. It would need a lot more screens to catch up with that advantage that Helsing had and that bearly squeezed past the 50 mark.
44-55 is my guess
Geofferson
05-11-04, 10:37 AM
I don't see Troy topping Van Helsing's opening weekend gross. Even with Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom and Eric Bana - it will have a diverse audience, but I doubt that it'll be released on more screens than Van Helsing was. I think Universal set a record with the # of Van Helsing screens.
Fincher Fan
05-11-04, 10:51 AM
Hard to say. I'd guess maybe $38m-$43m, but it seems a bit conservative. Maybe closer to $48m.
MrN
05-11-04, 12:03 PM
Originally posted by Geofferson
I don't see Troy topping Van Helsing's opening weekend gross. Even with Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom and Eric Bana - it will have a diverse audience, but I doubt that it'll be released on more screens than Van Helsing was. I think Universal set a record with the # of Van Helsing screens.
According to boxofficemojo, Van Helsing opened on 3575 screens. They estimate Troy will open on 3400+ screens. Running time will lower Troy's screenings, but on the other hand, VH is getting bad word of mouth. If you look at the daily numbers, it made just a tad more on Saturday than it did Friday (which is not typical) and its actual box office was a couple of million lower than the Sunday estimate.
I'm now hearing that VH will maybe make $150M, which is its budget before marketing.
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