Dr. DVD

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/c...4-05-09&p=.htm


While that is better than The Mummy it is not as good as its sequel. What this means is anyone's guess.

While Van Helsing's number would be outstanding in a month like February, March, or April, I am sure the studio wanted them to be North of $70 million, since the general consensus of the public is that this movie "sucks nuts" and will take a major hit by Troy next weekend. That is of course assuming that DVDTalk is representative of the general public.


That said, I seem to notice that Sunday's numbers are always significantly lower for a movie than those on Friday or Saturday. Why is that so often the case?
While Van Helsing will most likely not make back its budget domestically, the DVD, game, and overseas will help it in the long run I feel.

Now to the next big thing...TROY!!! I honestly think that WB needs this to open North of $70 million to even consider making back its budget. Given its R rating, that might prove difficult.

Rammsteinfan

If TROY can do business like Gladiator then it might and I guess it would have to do a little better... I have a feeling they will have to rely on overseas as well.

Sessa17

While certainly not a bad opening, in today's modern movie market, I think this means a definite dissapointment for this movie. With Troy opening next weekend & not exactly overwhelmingly positive word of mouth, this movie will plumet fast, & with Shrek 2 opening in two weeks, be it a different audience, Van Helsing will quickly fade out of everyone's mind. Probably not much more than $110 million domestic take.

With DVDs sales & overseas, the movie will indeed make it's obsurdl budget back, but giving that they already had plans for 2 sequels, a TV series, & massive amusement park tie-ins before this movie was even released, I think the end box office gross will not warrent any of that, thus making Van Helsing a pretty bid dissapointment.

Troy Stiffler

Troy is R? That surprises me. Very cool. I was thinking it was going to have 'pretty' battles and what-not.

I still see Van Helsing making upwards of $120mil. I mean, not many people (critics and audiences) liked The Mummy Returns. But it still made some good bank.

I see Troy making $45+ even though it's R. I think Van Helsing will bring in another $25-$30 next weekend, putting it around $95.

devilshalo

Glad Mean Girls is doing good

Goldberg74

The funny thing is New York Minute opened at #4 with only $6.4M. That's gotta hurt...

Top 5:

1. Van Helsing - $54.2M ($54.2M/1)
2. Mean Girls - $14M ($42.3M/2)
3. Man On Fire - $7.9M ($56M/3)
4. New York Minute - $6.2M ($6.2M/1)
5. 13 Going on 30 - $5.5M ($42.6M/3)

Seantn

Yeah, cause the Olsen's are so strapped for cash...

Matthew Chmiel

I predict in the end, Van Helsing will have a domestic take of around $140 million. If the film drops 50% every weekend, it'll still take in around $105 million. And that's without how much the film takes in during weekdays (which should be somewhere between $20 - 30 million).

I honestly think Troy will guarantee a $40 million gross next weekend. While the film will take away a huge audience of who would go and see Van Helsing in it's second weekend, the question is will it do more than a $40 million weekend? The females will be there for the males (Bana, Bloom, and Pitt) and the guys will be there for the action sequences. Too bad Warner couldn't choose to show this in IMAX and yet they're putting Catwoman in the format.

While Gladiator made $50 million it's opening weekend four years ago, I could see this doing around the same.

Van Helsing will take a 50% drop and will make around $25 million next weekend.

Dr. DVD

Maybe if Van Helsing had the Olsen's as two of the brides it would have broken $60 mil.

Both Mummy movies made their money and then some, but neither of them had to worry about a major release coming out against it the next week. I think that if Troy were not coming out this weekend, Van Helsing would still have a fighting chance. You never know, it being PG-13 might help it catch some spillover from those too young to see Troy.
That said, I really don't see why they had so much tied in to Van Helsing. While I liked the movie, I don't see how it merited any of its event spin offs.

Matthew Chmiel

Uh. No.

The only reason The Mummy made as much as it did was that it had a little film called Star Wars - Episode 1: The Phantom Menace opening a little bit shortly after The Mummy did. When people were turned away as TPM was sold out, they went and saw The Mummy instead.

People expected the same out of Spider-man/Star Wars - Episode 2: Attack of the Clones, but nobody expected Spider-man to be the phenomenon it was ($120 million opening weekend).

Jackskeleton

It's not going to hurt in the pocket book, it's going to hurt them in their career. BACK TO DIRECT TO VIDEO'S FOR THE BOTH OF THEM!

Matthew Chmiel

Sweet. Maybe they can pull a Disney and release It Takes Two 2.

Wazootyman

Uh. No.

The only reason The Mummy made as much as it did is because it opened relatively big (43 million, 5 years ago) and then proceeded to drop roughly 50% every weekend. It wasn't until it's 3rd weekend that it contended with The Phantom Menace, and by then it had already made half of it gross

Matthew Chmiel

The Mummy dropped 40% after released. Once TPM started making millions, the drops became less (what was once 40% drops, became 20-25% drops).

scott shelton

Chmiel is right.

jaeufraser

How does this matter? The drops became less because of Phantom Menace? or perhaps the drop offs became less because the film was making a LOT less money at that point, where drop offs usually reduce anyway.

The Mummy opened at 43 million. Universal knew it had a hit opening weekend. And The Mummy had grossed 100 million by the day Phantom Menace opened. With a final gross of 155 million, you're trying to tell me it's because of Star Wars that The Mummy was a big hit? Even though it made 2/3rd of its gross before it came out? I might agree some people wanted a movie in anticipation of Star Wars, but I don't think it had much else effect.

Now Van Helsing...I think it'll end up grossing around what The Mummy did, or possibly lower in the 120s. I haven't seen it yet, but I'll be back to bash or praise it lata.

Matthew Chmiel

If Star Wars never opened, the drops would've continued at 40%, if not more. The fact that TPM opened up let The Mummy get a little bit more of an audience. Due to TPM more people were exposed to The Mummy (and then due to the huge DVD/VHS rentals and sales which guaranteed The Mummy Returns).

If it wasn't for Star Wars, The Mummy probably would've only had a final domestic gross of around $120-125 million.

P.S. And I would say The Mummy was not a hit, but profitable when in theaters. The production budget for the film was estimated somewhere in between $80 - 120 million. Add advertising and distrubution into the mix, and the film mostly broke even. It didn't achieve "hit" status until it made a killing on video.

fumanstan

I don't see how Phantom Menace had any effect on the success of the Mummy. I agree with jaeufraser here.

DodgingCars

The theory is that there were only two big movies out when TPM was released. The Mummy and TPM. Because TPM was selling out and generally crowded, people went to see another big movie instead (wait for TPM crowds to die down) -- and they went to see The Mummy.

Wazootyman

I remember watching some behind the scenes thing on The Mummy, and Sommers said "On the Saturday after it was released, Universal called me up and said "Your movie is going to make $40 million this weekend, what are your plans for a sequel?"

Also, aside from the $155 million domestic, it made $250 at the international box office. It was a hit long before it got to video.

Terrell

Yeah, but with video sales nowadays, all movies are profitable and most become hits because of DVD.

Shannon Nutt

Troy is going to have trouble making money...the film is 2 hours and 45 minutes long (or close to that). This means only three shows per day in most theaters. Plus it's rated R. I'm expecting about a $30 to $35 million take next weekend...probably only outdoing the second week of Van Helsing by about $5 million or so.

Groucho

I hear that theory bandied about a lot here, but it really doesn't work that way. Movies that are out at the same time as a huge blockbuster get a small boost, but not enough to turn them into a big hit themselves.

Most people, when confronted with a sold-out show, tend to come back later. Especially when it comes to something like Star Wars.

Matthew Chmiel

Yeah I know, but I was talking about while the film was in theaters. Yes, with DVD, most films are now profitable (mostly for the fact people buy DVDs more than they rent thanks due to no rental window). But the studios like their films to at least break even when they're released to theaters. The Mummy did that domestically (and as Wazootyman said, it also made $250 million profit (basically) when released internationally).

Neeb

>>It's not going to hurt in the pocket book, it's going to hurt them in their career. BACK TO DIRECT TO VIDEO'S FOR THE BOTH OF THEM!