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Does the fact that something better than DVDs is around the corner worry you? [Archive] - DVD Talk Forum
 
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View Full Version : Does the fact that something better than DVDs is around the corner worry you?


Snowmaker
02-13-04, 06:49 AM
Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD are targeted for launch in by late 2005 or early 2006.

All the money and effort I've put into my collection, for some reason this news just worries me. I know my current DVDs will play on the same players, but just knowing that what I have is inferior to another version of the movie that will be out there will bug me. :(

Or am I just being ridiculous?

TomOpus
02-13-04, 07:01 AM
There will always be something better on the horizon. For me, there's no way I will be able to afford HD until the prices come way down. I think it'll take a long time for the general public to accept the new format .. so I'll not worry about it for many years.

Inferior doesn't mean it's a bad version. DVD, when done right, is pretty good. Improvments can only be minute, at best, in an already great transfer job from a pristine print.

Plus not everything currently on DVD will be ported to the next format right away (or if at all).

Don't worry... just enjoy.

nemein
02-13-04, 07:07 AM
As long as the keep the backward compatibility (which considering the number of things that are in this size format now it will probably be awhile before someone changes that) I'm not too worried about it.

mikewendt
02-13-04, 07:35 AM
a little bit. but at this point i think it'll be a while before i start my collection over

matome
02-13-04, 08:05 AM
Nope, it's just a continuous cycle since there will always be something new down the road. I probably won't replace as many DVD's with HD-DVD as I did laserdiscs/DVD's since there won't be such a HUGE difference in convenience or quality to warrant it, but I certainly will upgrade my true faves.

Groucho
02-13-04, 08:06 AM
The fact that a thread like this has been started about once every month since I first came to this forum does.

Bill Geiger
02-13-04, 08:07 AM
Simple answer...no.

Tha Freak
02-13-04, 08:20 AM
SACD and DVD-A where suppose to be revolutionary...but finally, will they survive??

The improvement from VHS to DVD was a major one!!

But will the step from actual DVD to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD will be as important and improving??

I don't think so...until the HD format is the new standard, that most household have a HD set, all TV channel are broardcast in HD and in DD5.1, the actual form of the DVD will be the most popular format...

Maybe some blu-ray player and some movies will be released on that new format for the elite or enthusiast (like us? :D )...

...but for the comon peoples, it will probably take a while before the DVD format is completely replaced!...

But this is just my 2˘... ;)

Cocopugg
02-13-04, 08:25 AM
Rather than worry about a newer format, I hope they come up with a way of storing much more data on a disc. Even Blue Ray isn't enough to please me. What I hope they come up with is a way of copying all my DVDs (about 1,000 so far) to just 1 disc. In other words, I can live with the quality regular DVD offers me, I just want them to reduce the physical size of my collection so all my titles can reside on just 1 disc. When they invent this, then I'll be interested. Until then, I don't even care about HDTV DVD, because only new shows will be produced on this format, and since I'm only interested in older shows (and very little difference will actually show up when older shows are transferred to HDTV DVD), HDTV is not for me...I want storage, not better quality.

CP

boredsilly
02-13-04, 08:34 AM
You also have to remember that every new format doesn't take off. People have taken to dvd's so much due to the low price (dvd's & players are as cheap if not cheaper than there vhs counterparts now) so why not upgrade? I doubt people will be as quick to replace 100's of dvd's with 100's of hd dvd's or whatever is next. DVD's have a good long life left.

Class316
02-13-04, 09:11 AM
Just because something is a lot better does not mean it will kill a format stamped in the head of most common folks.

LD, SVHS, and HD-VHS did not kill VHS

DVD-A and SACD did not kill ACD

HD-TV did not kill TV

Likewise, HD-DVD will not kill DVD.

Of course, HD-DVD won’t be the next “LD” to THAT extreme, but it will be a while before DVD can ever be rooted out. Even VHS is not completely rooted out yet. So don’t hold your breath.

Basically, it’ll be a good while before we can say “when will <insert random title> will come out on DVD”, it will be a good while before we have $50 region free HD-DVD players along with cheap HD-DVDRs discs, affordable HD-DVDR drives, cracked encryption for HD-DVDR discs, and HD-DVDRs for under $20.

nemein
02-13-04, 09:19 AM
I doubt people will be as quick to replace 100's of dvd's with 100's of hd dvd's or whatever is next.

On the flip side though hopefully there will be some good deals to be found as the studios try to get people to buy into the new format :D

jmj713
02-13-04, 09:29 AM
I sincerely doubt that HD-DVD will replace DVD anytime soon. I have a collection of over 400 titles, but that's not the reason I think this way. DVD took off the way it did because it offered the average consumer something a lot better than VHS, and it was tangible difference. HD-DVD simply will not offer that big a difference to the average consumer. I think whenever it'll launch it'll moderately succeed, but it won't do much better than LD.

LasVegasMichael
02-13-04, 09:38 AM
Absolutely not.

LD never took over VHS, and it wasn't even backwards compatible.

I will not be upgrading for SEVERAL years at this point. Didn't upgrade to DVD until 2001, and never upgraded to LD from VHS, so patience I have.

DavidH
02-13-04, 09:53 AM
Yes, it does bother me. I wish my current collection would be the best quality format for at least 10 more years. (Though I guess D-VHS really is now anyway.) But, I do believe in progress.

I'm sure one day I'll sell off my DVDs for HD-DVD. However, it won't be anytime soon. HD-DVDs will have to be about as cheap as regular DVDs which means something like Columbia House will have to carry them at the current offers before I jump into it all. Also, I wouldn't pay more than $500 for an HD-DVD player.

ThatGuamGuy
02-13-04, 09:57 AM
I know my current DVDs will play on the same players, but just knowing that what I have is inferior to another version of the movie that will be out there will bug me.

In my opinion, the experience of watching DVDs will (almost) always be inferior to the experience of watching a movie in theaters, so, no, it doesn't bother me that there may at some point soon be something else also better.

DrMcKittrick
02-13-04, 09:59 AM
I was one of the early adopters of DVD and the format is absolutely incredible. As an HD TV owner I will probably upgrade to the new player (provided the cost is reasonable, when DVD players first came out they were ~$700) but only a few of my DVD's will get the upgrade (ie. LOTR, Matrix, etc.). But I see no reason whatsoever to upgrade an entire collection when it's already perfect.

doc

Jackskeleton
02-13-04, 10:09 AM
no.

I've been through it with plenty of formats already. A new format will not change my feelings on buying dvd's. I still play my LD's even though they are a dead format I still enjoy it for what it is.

Skyfire
02-13-04, 11:10 AM
Well let me see, I started with a Black and White TV powered by glass tubes, then I upgraded into the color TV's, after that I upgraded to a outside antenae, then had to upgrade to one with a remote Control. Next came the Big Screen upgrade. Then recording devices came and I got a great Beta machine, after that I had to upgrade to VHS, then came an upgrade to the DVD's. You think I'm worried about the next upgrade??? Not at all, in a few short years I'll have as many of whats around the corner as anybody else. After all thats why we buy houses with Basements and attics, to put all our old Fads and Hobbies. See ya in the future.

Josh H
02-13-04, 11:22 AM
No, because as I've said before, I doubt the new formats will catch on.

CDs have been around for over 20 years, better formats have been introduced (like DVD Audio and SA-CD) and they haven't even made a dent.

The mass market has adopted DVD. They're not going to rebuy their collection just for better AV quality. DVDs caught because they offered much more over VHS than just A/V quality, with stuff like extras, instant scene access, not having to be rewound etc.

This is much the same reason that CDs caught on.

Anything to rival CDs and DVDs will likely not achieve more than niche market status anytime soon.

It will take something that comes along offering much more than just better a/v quality.

Wild Yams
02-13-04, 11:37 AM
A big difference between HD-DVD taking over DVDs versus how DVDs took over LDs is that you have to get a whole new (and expensive) TV to see the difference, whereas when DVDs first came out, consumers didn't have to invest as much money to upgrade. I think that inevitably everyone will move to HDTV and HD-DVDs, but it's not going to be by the end of 2005 or 2006. Also, it's going to take a while for the studios to put everything out on HD-DVD, just like it took them a couple years to get pretty sizable amounts of titles out on DVD. Don't fret, you still have a couple years to get plenty of enjoyment out of your DVD collection.

vivarey
02-13-04, 11:57 AM
Just wait for the Columbia House HD-DVD Club.

inkonpark
02-13-04, 12:01 PM
Most people in this thread do not worry about new comers.

But, I definitely worry about HD-DVD. During spending a lot of money on regular dvds, I have been hooked up by this good quality medium. I am craving better better quality, and I become techno savvy person.

Probably, after watching real good quality of HD-DVD, my mind will struggle between regular dvd and hd-dvd upgrade, even though we deny this right now...

Jaymole
02-13-04, 12:03 PM
I'm not worried because it will take years before they'll have all the titles that are on DVD now. Plus, I'm happy with the picture DVD offers so I'm not anxious to upgrade. I can live with DVD for the next 20 years and be happy.

Iron_Giant
02-13-04, 12:03 PM
Now that I have an HDTV, I can say that having an HD-DVD player would be high on my list after the price falls a little bit. The clearity makes watching more even more fun than before. I can see myself buying only HD-DVDs when they hit the market and only renting DVDs. If the price was to high for the HD-DVDs, then I would only buying the ones that would get multi-viewing (Star Wars, Terminator 2, Indiana Jones - guy flicks).

But, a really well done DVD can look awesome. After watching Monster Inc., I was wanting all my movies to look like that on HDTV. But, there are only few DVDs (live action or animated) that look that awesome.

jmstone18
02-13-04, 12:05 PM
I will worry about it when they create an interactive format when I can actually become a part of the movie myself, because other then that how much can the next format be. How many different extras could they create for something like Lord of the Rings Extended Editions. So until they build an affordable Holodeck for the home I am not going to worry about it that much.

C_Fletch
02-13-04, 12:20 PM
I would be VERY supprised if 5% of the population even knows that a Blu-Ray HD-DVD player exists in 2007. I'd be even more supprised if there are more than 100 titles available by 2008 or that 1% of the population will even have a player.

Accepting formats is VERY hard to do for the general public. Just look at DVDs for your proof. They were announced as a format back in November of 1995, almost 10 years ago and they have just hit mainstream status in the last year. Then they finally came out in 1997. So it has taken several years to get to this point.

Now look at what happened in the Music industry and what continues to happen. CDs came around in the early 80s. They are THE format and as far as I'm concerned I do not see this format dieing anytime soon. Especially with all of the competing formats(yeah that made sense guys). Really though, talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

I think I was worried about HD-DVD for about an hour. After thinking it through like I have posted I soon realized that was something NOT to worry about.

Cocopugg
02-13-04, 12:26 PM
Originally posted by Josh Hinkle
No, because as I've said before, I doubt the new formats will catch on.

I tend to agree. Not everyone will be willing to throw away cash on a new format that doesn't offer that much of an improvement to the naked eye. Yes, maybe we "the DVD community" can tell the difference, but do you think the average person who makes $20,000 a yr will really see enough difference to care? I don't think so. Most people I talk to still don't own SACDs or DVD audio discs...heck most of them have never even heard of them! Just like regular audio CDs will continue to master the audio market, so will regular DVDs master the video market...and as long as the FCC mandates backwards compatability, forcing manufacturers to make their TV sets compatible with the regular NTSC standards in order to play the regular DVD discs, then HD DVDs will never outsell regular DVDs. Now if the FCC forces ALL TV manufacturers to completely stop producing regular NTSC and PAL TVs and monitors in favor of all HDTVs, then eventually when all our TV sets breakdown and no one can replace the parts, then we will have to cave in and buy the new stuff...til then, DVD wins hands down.

CP

Concorde
02-13-04, 12:50 PM
I'm willing to bet the Asians and Europeans will be jumping all over HD-DVD or Blueray... they always were open to the latest and greatest toys.

Personally, however, I'm going to wait until the new format catches on. I can't be throwing down all kinds of green just because something is new; so, I'll be waiting until the hardware and software gets reasonably priced.

kedalto1
02-13-04, 01:40 PM
DVD is just too hot of an item right now to be put away in a mere two more years. I predict DVD will have a great run just like VHS. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be more of a niche product like LD.

That's just how I think it will play out.

Fed-Ex Pope
02-13-04, 02:40 PM
The thought doesn't bother me at all. Either the technology will be so great that I will gladly snap up my favorites I already own on DVD (Terminator, LotR, Fear and Loathing, ect.) or it won't, leaving me content with the stuff I already own.

I won't be updating most of my current collection, and I won't be an early adopter who pays 200+ bucks too much for an (likely) unreliable HD-player with few features...I'm sitting the next wave out for at LEAST a year after it's North American launch.

Ginwen
02-13-04, 02:46 PM
Doesn't worry me at all. In the unlikely event it does take off, it just means lots of cheap used DVDs for me, at least for a while. At some point if I do adopt the new format, I

Wannabe
02-13-04, 02:59 PM
Since DVD doesn't degrade or break down over time like a VHS cassette, I think it's a perfectly fine format.

It doesn't pay to worry; no one knows what the future will bring. Ultimately, with better compression algorithms and cheaper storage, you probably won't even purchase a physical product beyond the next 15 or 20 years - it will be something like a million title library of video on demand accessible over the internet to your super hdtv wall monitor thingee.

Roy Batty
02-13-04, 03:35 PM
What I hope they come up with is a way of copying all my DVDs (about 1,000 so far) to just 1 disc.

My 250+ CD collection now resides entirely on my iPod (and my hard drive) and I never play CDs anymore, in my car or at home. If we could get the same kind of technology working for video, now that would be something. I love the idea of being able to punch up any movie I own (far too many) juke box style. Yeah, I know I can get DVD players that store hundreds of discs, but even that seems antiquated.

It's important to remember the HDTV (at least the broadcast part) is sattelite technology, and right now cable rules the roost. Blue ray? Bring it on. Like DVD, it will succeed or fail based on the consumer and his/her value perception.

madcougar
02-13-04, 03:50 PM
Hmmm, world hunger, war, a growing deficit, my daughter approaching college age.... HD-DVDS.

I think I have enough to worry about right now.

I guess my non-jackass answer is "no."

chipmac
02-13-04, 03:57 PM
I agree with all of the posts that state that HD DVD will be slow to catch on because of the small percentage of current HDTV owners. Now add to this the possibility of even those small numbers not being able to play HD DVDs because of the need for a DVI connection due to pirating fears from the studios. If the studios demand DVI connections for HD DVD players, how many current owners of HDTVs without DVI will be willing to upgrade their TVs again and also buy a new player. So you then have an even smaller percentage of people that will buy into the new format then just those that will need to upgrade from SD TVs to HDTVs.

I decided to upgrade from an SD analog TV to an HDTV just for DVDs even though I knew it would be a long while before getting an HD signal from cable or sat and OTA is not available to me. But I'm willing to bet I'm in the minority in that kind of purchase as most DVD player owners are content with an SDTV. Now they'll need to convince these people that they not only need a new HDTV but a new HD DVD player.

atari2600
02-13-04, 04:33 PM
yes.

(hey, someone had to agree with you...im just being nice cuz it really doenst bother me at all)

Wild Yams
02-13-04, 05:00 PM
Originally posted by kedalto1
DVD is just too hot of an item right now to be put away in a mere two more years. I predict DVD will have a great run just like VHS. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be more of a niche product like LD.

That's just how I think it will play out.

DVD is hot right now, that is true, but the studios really are kinda coming to the end of what they can release on DVDs. Basically most of everything is already out there, so it is just a matter of time before the DVD market dries up (unless people really are in to buying third releases of discs, or "Ultimate, Super-Mega Extreme Edition!!!" releases). The studios will want the next big thing just to keep sales going. I think that if they are smart (and I have my doubts), they will price HD-DVDs at roughly the same price as regular DVDs to encourage people to buy them (much in the same way DVDs were priced at about the same as VHS when they were released). If they try to sell HD-DVDs at the same price that Laserdiscs used to go for, the studios will end up shooting themselves in the foot and they really will make it only a niche market.

The real benefit of the quality that comes with High Definition is that, unlike NTSC, when you blow it up real huge onto a 20 or 30 foot screen, it still looks great. Once people begin refitting their houses with projection HD systems so they really can feel like they're at the movies, then people will want HD-DVDs because the regular DVDs will look like crap at that size. But that is still a couple years away, and the studios for now will be content to squeeze as much blood from the turnip that is DVD sales. My suspicion is that the studios are not thinking of HD-DVDs as a niche market item though, and will be wanting it to completely supplant DVDs in a couple years when DVD sales begin to dwindle as a result of there not being anything left to put on DVD.

NoirTech
02-13-04, 05:07 PM
I'm not worry about it. Kinda like I wasn't worried about it when buying a computer. If I did, I would never had bought one cause something newer and better was around the corner. It will take sometime for the next format to gather momentum. I feel very comfortable buying current DVD disks.

cinelion
02-13-04, 05:09 PM
the only problem I have with dvds is the dreaded layer change.

Hd-DVD will do away with layer changes. I will adopt it for that very reason. Some movies I love have ridiculous layer changes.
I am in rental mode these days and I do look forward to watching a film sans the layer change.

tpc
02-13-04, 05:34 PM
You know, whether it does, or doesn't catch on, to me it doesn't matter.

I wasn't an early adopter of DVD.. I didn't get into it until 99. That's earlier than most, but it was then that the format was just really starting to pick up steam. The picture on DVDs is immaculate as it is... so there are very, very few films I would feel compelled to upgrade to a newer format. Star Wars, LOTR and a few of my other faves, perhaps, but nothing more than maybe 20 or so of my favorites. If backwards compatibility is an option, I'll probably just wait until I see if the new format is actually going to work at a price point I can agree with, and then I'll make the switch and pick up new movies in HD, while still enjoying my already pristine DVDs.

bga
02-13-04, 05:46 PM
The only reason why DVD's are priced comparably to VHS (actually cheaper) is because DVD's had a different marketing model (sales direct to consumer), instead of the VHS model of sales to video rental stores (at 3-4 times the cost of today's new DVD release), followed by a drop in price to current DVD new release price when the video rental stores sold their excess stock. It appears that this model worked better than the studios expected.

HD-DVD/Blue Ray will probably be sold at a premium, just as CD was sold at a premium over LPs and cassettes. But I predict you'll see the barebones edition on DVD and HD-DVD/Blue Ray will have the SE edition so the studios can "justify" the price premium to Joe Six-Pack.

However, unless a studio created a HD master for their current DVDs, they're not likely to remaster them in a HD DVD format unless it's a very popular title, so most of your current DVD collection will probably only be obsolete if you want to replace it with one that doesn't have a layer change.

kedalto1
02-13-04, 06:00 PM
I just don't see the average movie buyer (read: J6P) trading up their DVD collections just yet for something that looks better. Why I called it a niche market and likened it to LD is because I think the only people that will really buy them will be movie buffs, collectors, and people like that. I don't see people like my parents going out and replacing their player, their television, and their movie collections in the next ten years.

While we are the ones who truly appreciate DVD, we're in no means the primary DVD market. J6P is. The masses have latched on to DVD and I just don't see them changing over to a new format any time soon...especially one that will take a complete renovation of hardware.

gutwrencher
02-13-04, 06:24 PM
Originally posted by Snowmaker


All the money and effort I've put into my collection, for some reason this news just worries me. I know my current DVDs will play on the same players, but just knowing that what I have is inferior to another version of the movie that will be out there will bug me. :(


many of my dvds contain versions and prints of films that are just fine. more than fine, actually. only selected titles will I replace with the next format. be worried about delamination(dvd rot) instead...then maybe your stress will be validated.

Josh H
02-13-04, 06:27 PM
Originally posted by Wild Yams
Once people begin refitting their houses with projection HD systems so they really can feel like they're at the movies, then people will want HD-DVDs because the regular DVDs will look like crap at that size. But that is still a couple years away.....



A couple years away? :confused:

Projection HD systems will NEVER be mainstream. There something only hard core movie buffs, and videophiles will ever adopt.

For one, they're expensive. Secondly, they require a pretty large dedicated room in a home to put in.

smirnoffski
02-13-04, 07:24 PM
What I hope they come up with is a way of copying all my DVDs (about 1,000 so far) to just 1 disc.

Well, you can do that right now!


www.kaleidescape.com


This is what I am looking forward to. Putting all my DVDs bit-for-bit into one hard drive and network it throughout my house.
Sure its $30,000 right now but it will drop in a few years (provided that some sort of copy protection be established.)
Make my own databases of films and best would be some sort of voice command system like.
"List all comedy films" or "Give me Matrix last chapter"
or "Show all things Tom Cruise related (extras and features)" etc.

I am not really worried about HD-DVD, only very few of my films will be upgraded.

Cocopugg
02-13-04, 07:57 PM
Originally posted by bga
However, unless a studio created a HD master for their current DVDs, they're not likely to remaster them in a HD DVD format unless it's a very popular title, so most of your current DVD collection will probably only be obsolete if you want to replace it with one that doesn't have a layer change.

You can copy any DVD today to DVD-R or DVD+R and remove the layer change, so if that's the only reason to upgrade, my little info has just saved you thousands of $$$ ;)

CP

danwiz
02-13-04, 08:18 PM
It doesn't even arouse my concern or worry modules in the slightest!

'Nuff said!

speedyray
02-13-04, 08:31 PM
I have no intention to be an early adopter. I might get one by 2010, who am I kidding about two years in I will get it.

But I mean really, do you think the public is going to go for a more expensive set up like this. How many people do you know - outside of this forum - that really care about anything other than the fact they do not have to rewind it a DVD.

I can not think of one friend my age - 24 - that has an HDTV. We are the group that would have to drive a mainstream conversion IMHO - younger people will not have the money and the studios will be after our demographic. If we can not afford the TV to watch the movie why pay more for the better disc.

I mean, my wife and I will be the first in our group of friends with HiDef - Aiming for Christmas with a 60 inch Pioneer Elite - but my friends don't even understand why I paid so much for speakers and a home theater reciever when their all in one cost 220 bucks. They cannot fathom why I have a $1500 - retail not what I paid - reciever. I point to the THX symbol and they look at me blankly.

I have no fear of this new medium - IMHO it will be the next laser disc - better, but only for audiophiles. I mean it will rock, but joe blow could give a rats ass.

Freud
02-14-04, 02:13 AM
HDTV...when done properly...looks fabulous...much better than even the best DVD's.

However, the current state of broadcast 1080i and 720p is "not ready for prime time". Just go over to avs.com and read the HDTV posts and you'll see what I mean. This year's Grammy's were a horror show for many with HDTV sets...in fact...it has become clear that current HD broadcast compression standards are NOT up to presenting certain types of material (e.g. strobing lights) without significant video degradation.

HDTV is the future...but current 480p DVD's will meet the needs of MOST folks for years to come.

WojtekZ
02-14-04, 02:36 AM
Speedray,

The mid to hi fi AV space is populated by the older/higher income earners. Just walk down the isle and take a look at the significant majority of SACD/DVD-A titles, how many of these titles are by artists that the average 20 something would know of.

I am in the age bracket you speak of but I earn quite a bit more than the average 20 something. I can therefore justify my upcoming HDTV purchase. The gear you speak of unfortunately is not often purchased by the younger population (it is however the younger audience that tells daddy which TV to buy).

WojtekZ
02-14-04, 02:40 AM
Originally posted by ThatGuamGuy
In my opinion, the experience of watching DVDs will (almost) always be inferior to the experience of watching a movie in theaters, so, no, it doesn't bother me that there may at some point soon be something else also better.


I have to strongly disagree with this comment. We are seeing shorter and shorter runs of movies in theatres. I dont think that its unreasonable to think that we may in the next 10-20 years see simultanous release in theatres and/or home release (on whatever media he are using at that time). As we see cinemas moving towards using digital media for projection, I can actually see better quality at home than in theatres. Its much more difficult to get a crystal clear , high contrast picture on at 200' screen than it is on a 8' screen.

hoyalawya
02-14-04, 04:39 AM
Originally posted by Roy Batty
It's important to remember the HDTV (at least the broadcast part) is sattelite technology, and right now cable rules the roost. Blue ray? Bring it on. Like DVD, it will succeed or fail based on the consumer and his/her value perception.

Huh??? If HD broadcasting is sattelite, then how do you explain that I can receive HD signal "over-the-air" by using an "indoor" antenna. HD is currently being broadcasted over the air by broadcasting towers. Cable company also carries HD channels. I am receiving 9 HD channels with my Cox HD cable box.

Back to the topic, yes, I am worried. I already own a fairly big HDTV set (50"). DVD resolution is IMO inadequate on larger displays. Check out these comparison shots.

http://www.geocities.com/sircash13/Gladiator.html
http://www.geocities.com/sircash13/FOTR.html

My next TV upgrade would be to get a 1080p digital projector once the price is under $2000. I hope that HD-DVD will already be released by then. If HD-DVD is available today, I simply would not buy any DVD.

DarthVong
02-14-04, 07:03 AM
Nope, I don't own and HD-TV either. Standard DVD is fine for me right now.

bodomnet
02-14-04, 08:14 AM
It does not worry me as I dont think DVD will just fade away. And it won't for a long time! and if it does I don't plan to replace my dvd's with new formats.

TomOpus
02-14-04, 09:45 AM
Originally posted by Josh Hinkle
A couple years away? :confused:

Projection HD systems will NEVER be mainstream. There something only hard core movie buffs, and videophiles will ever adopt.

For one, they're expensive. Secondly, they require a pretty large dedicated room in a home to put in. I was thinking the extact same thing but you beat me to it.

A high percentage of people finally jumped onto the "DVD Bandwagon" when the players fell under $100 and there was tons of software. I don't see this happening anytime soon with the next format (once they get that figured out).

Cocopugg
02-14-04, 01:17 PM
Let's just say that in 2020, more people will own regular DVDs in their home, than HD DVDs. If you don't think this is true, think back to the past. Before VHS or Betamax, the only format they sold movies to the public was in Super 8 film. Even that was so expensive that they usually sold only clips of, not entire movies. Starting in the 60s, Super 8 movies were found in more homes than any other home movie format, until VHS took over in the 80s. Then VHS had the lead for another 20 yrs. Now it's DVD's turn. So you really shouldn't worry until 2020 or so. By then, there will be plenty of other formats to watch movies in, no doubt. I personally can't wait until movies are transferred onto the new 3D hologram surround sound via personal wrist chip format. I expect this to hit the market sometime around 2050 or so. :)

CP

Kimiakane
02-14-04, 02:25 PM
I have seen HDTV at a few friends homes and it is beautiful! However, how clear does the picture actually need to be, especially when it's a cartoon, an old movie, an old TV series, or for that matter, even a new film. Everything I have is clear enough and sounds good enough.

Eventually we will all own HDTV as it will be the norm, but even then, I see no need (IMHO) for HDTV DVD as it is just fine the way it is. As long as my current collection will play on the next gen players / recorders then all will be right in my world.

It is only going to be a tragedy when and if, holo-discs start to make DVDs as antiquated as VHS or Beta-max! ;)

jough
02-14-04, 03:10 PM
With the coming format war, many people (myself included) will take a "wait and see" approach to a new format.

I don't really see replacing my old DVDs for only a slightly higher resolution.

If HD-DVD were five or ten times the resolution it may be a compelling upgrade, but HD is barely TWICE as good as DVD. And of course the source material will marr even the highest res transfer.

So in the event that an HD format wins, it's higher resolution than the current HD standard, and as affordable as DVD, yeah, maybe I'll let my grandchildren buy me one for Christmas in 2027.

Simpson Purist
02-14-04, 04:48 PM
Not really, I'm always expecting something better anyway.

hoyalawya
02-14-04, 05:44 PM
Originally posted by jough
With the coming format war, many people (myself included) will take a "wait and see" approach to a new format.

I don't really see replacing my old DVDs for only a slightly higher resolution.

If HD-DVD were five or ten times the resolution it may be a compelling upgrade, but HD is barely TWICE as good as DVD. And of course the source material will marr even the highest res transfer.

So in the event that an HD format wins, it's higher resolution than the current HD standard, and as affordable as DVD, yeah, maybe I'll let my grandchildren buy me one for Christmas in 2027.

The pixel count in an anamorphic DVD is 720 * 480 = 345600 pixels. The format of HD-DVD is not finalized yet. If it is 1080p, the pixel count is 1920 * 1080 = 2073600 pixels. Therefore, the pixel count of 1080p is six times more than that of an anamorphic DVD. If the format is 1080i, the pixel count is half that number.

jough
02-14-04, 05:55 PM
Ah, yes, three times, not twice. I used to be able to divide 1920 by 720. ;)

And the format of HD-DVD has been finalised. It'll be Toshiba's AOD. It was ratified by the DVD Forum.

hoyalawya
02-14-04, 06:06 PM
I thought that the DVD forum only approved the used of violet laser and dissed blue-ray. The picture resolution is not yet discussed. However, the approved disc can contain only (I think) 20 GB per side. I don't know how much space 1080p take but vague recall a discussion on another site that the approved format can only contain about 2 hours of 1080p on one side.

jough
02-14-04, 06:16 PM
hoyalawya, that's incorrect.

It's the Blu-Ray that can hold two hours of 1080p on a side (single layer). AOD is 1080i.

Cocopugg
02-14-04, 07:26 PM
Originally posted by hoyalawya
However, the approved disc can contain only (I think) 20 GB per side.

Is that all? Since I'm interested in much more space, rather than picture quality, I think I'll pass on this format. Call me when a disc can squeeze my entire DVD collection on 1 side...Or when it can hold about 10,000 gigs per side. :)

Ginwen
02-14-04, 09:08 PM
Originally posted by WojtekZ
I have to strongly disagree with this comment. We are seeing shorter and shorter runs of movies in theatres. I dont think that its unreasonable to think that we may in the next 10-20 years see simultanous release in theatres and/or home release (on whatever media he are using at that time). As we see cinemas moving towards using digital media for projection, I can actually see better quality at home than in theatres. Its much more difficult to get a crystal clear , high contrast picture on at 200' screen than it is on a 8' screen. You may be correct on the quality, but to me the experience is better. No matter how good my equipment/space gets, for me going out to the movies is going out, watching DVDs at home is sitting around at home watching TV (good TV, but TV nonetheless).

TCG
02-15-04, 06:20 AM
it seems the only thing that HD-DVD will offer over DVD is better audio and video. i can live without that. i buy DVDs primarily for the movies and extras.

RichDB10
02-15-04, 09:47 AM
Doesn't worry me in the slightest....the DVD format offers everything that i can want from it...whether it reaches that for other people is a different matter but for me..it's more than adequate.

Cocopugg
02-15-04, 10:29 AM
Yeah it looks like the industry may have shot itself in the foot by creating such great quality in the regular DVD format. The fact that the picture looks great, audio sounds awesome, and all fits onto a disc the same size as a CD means regular DVDs will rule the market for a very long time. I doubt mainstream America will ever make HD DVD the standard. It will most likely go the same route as laserdisc...Great for ultra geeks, but mom and pop America will be more than happy with their regular DVDs for the next 20+ yrs to come.

Wannabe
02-15-04, 10:54 AM
The speed in which DVD becomes obsolete will depend on several factors:

A) the price point of the new format has to be roughly equivalent to current DVD prices

B) basic players for the new format need to fall to the sub $100 range

C) when the transition to digital television is complete and analog television sets are no longer manufactured

D) general public deems picture quality of new format to be discernably better than DVD

Cocopugg
02-15-04, 02:06 PM
Originally posted by Wannabe
C) when the transition to digital television is complete and analog television sets are no longer manufactured
[/B]

I doubt that day will ever come, since mostly all HDTV sets today also play regular NTSC DVDs, I believe that unlike current NTSC only sets (which will stop being produced when we go to all HDTV), HDTVs will play both signals for many yrs to come...Probably through the next 40+ yrs. At least long enough to last through the rest of my life.

THORN
02-15-04, 09:28 PM
Originally posted by Cocopugg
Rather than worry about a newer format, I hope they come up with a way of storing much more data on a disc. Even Blue Ray isn't enough to please me. What I hope they come up with is a way of copying all my DVDs (about 1,000 so far) to just 1 disc. In other words, I can live with the quality regular DVD offers me, I just want them to reduce the physical size of my collection so all my titles can reside on just 1 disc. When they invent this, then I'll be interested. Until then, I don't even care about HDTV DVD, because only new shows will be produced on this format, and since I'm only interested in older shows (and very little difference will actually show up when older shows are transferred to HDTV DVD), HDTV is not for me...I want storage, not better quality.

CP

hey coco check this thread out http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=347275 i started it the other day ...its right up your alley

thorn

D-Ball
02-16-04, 01:14 AM
I'm not worried at all. Like was stated before, the difference between DVD and HD isn't as noticeable as the difference between DVD and VHS. My DVDs look fine as far as I'm concerned. The HD-DVD market will be a niche market much the same as laserdisc. It will probably catch on for a smaller market, but I don't see it replacing DVD for many years to come.

sracer
02-16-04, 08:58 AM
Re: Saturation of DVD releases. There are still many, many more films that have yet to appear on DVD (that did get released on VHS), so there is still plenty of "room" for DVD releases to grow.

Re:Quality of the DVD format. With the exception of newly released films (last 5-10 yrs), the limiting factor of the overall quality of DVDs has been the original film/TV show elements. Poor DVD encoding/authoring should not be blamed on "limits" of the DVD standard.

I guarantee that there will be Highlander-like releases on HD-DVD as well. Just by examining the bitrates of a DVD disc during playback (if your player has that capability), you will see that there is plenty of bitrate space "available" to devote to the encoded film.

Is it possible to eek out even higher quality HD-DVD discs of older films/shows? Sure... but will the difference be noticeable to the naked eye?

Re:Quality of the DVD Released Material. Aside from the technical merits of the DVD format itself, the material: commentaries, documentaries, scrapbooks, audio clips, etc. are more extensive for newer films than ever before. However, in some (many?) cases, bonus material that was originally released on LaserDisc has NOT made it to DVD. For various reasons such as copyrights and other legalities, this material for older films hasn't made it to DVD.

It would be dangerous to assume that all of the bonus material currently available on DVD will see its way to HD-DVD. I suspect that most of it will, especially big studio releases, but for niche and obscure films, there is some uncertainty.

As for older films, I think that more material will fall through the cracks and NOT be transferred. To bulk up HD-DVD releases of older films, expect to see commentaries by Sarah Karloff's grandkids, or the grand-nephew of the Key Grip on Saturday Night Fever.

Re: "Fear" of "the-next-biggest-thing". My reason for collecting DVDs is simple: To have a personal digital archive of the films and TV shows that have personal significance to me. With few exceptions (those discs too cheap to pass up) this has been the case. I certainly can't justify having the TV movie "Gargoyles" (with Cornel Wilde) on any kind of artistic merit. ;)

I am closing in on "completing" my person digital archive... just a few more TV shows (currently not on disc), and a few more films (again, not on disc) and my DVD collection will be complete. Will I be adding more? Sure! There are about 2-3 films a year that I will probably add.

DVDs are durable enough to withstand repeated playback (unlike VHS) and has sufficient quality to continue to be a pleasant viewing experience... all this to say, no, I'm not worried. :D

sicklerice
02-16-04, 09:50 AM
Can you say SVHS?

HD-DVD is in no sense of the word a sure thing to be big.

I think it probably will. But SVHS is a good example of why it might not.

hoyalawya
02-16-04, 12:40 PM
Most people do not know what SACD or DVD-A are. However, most people (those that watch football and the Super Bowl anyway) have heard of HDTV and might have heard how better it is than regular TV. Suppose that Best Buy places DVD and HD-DVD new releases side-by-side during the release week (when HD-DVD is available) and HD-DVD is only $10-15 more than DVD, tell me that you won't think twice before taking the DVD to the cashier counter. However, I do not think that price will be that low since Hollywood has every incentive to keep titles' resolution as low as possible.

What I am looking forward to is the ability to record and archive HD movies (in OAR) from HBO HD and Showtime HD. When such archiving is economically feasible (through a hack or whatsoever), I will be able to retire many titles in my DVD collection.

couch21
02-16-04, 02:00 PM
I am a firm believer in the law of diminishing returns, particularly when it comes to technology. Each new format produces a smaller "payoff" from the previous benchmark, so the overall improvement curve gets smaller and smaller.

Let's not deny the fact that HD-DVD will present a considerable advantage in disc space to the existing DVD format. Granted, improvements in video and sound quality may or may not even be noticeable to the average mass market consumer. However, I think the extra space will afford lots of advantages in studios providing more extras, and if we're lucky we might some day see an entire Alien Quad box set on one disc instead of nine.

We should only expect that studios will harness the full advantages of extra disc space by making marginal improvements in video/sound quality and adding even more extras. It would be stupid for studios NOT to re-release all of their titles because it's still a great profit mechanism. Will this require us to completely repurchase our collections? Depends on what kind of collector you are.

But let's not deny the other fact as well - HD-DVD is still a long way off from becoming a market standard. Sure, HD-DVDs may make their debut in late 2005, but the Joneses don't determine its market acceptance. Market standards are defined by the "average" consumer, and while I won't even attempt to provide a definition, I know it certainly is NOT someone who can immediately delve into purchasing all of the necessary components (the HDTV tv, receiver/sound system, HD-DVD player, HDTV service, etc.) to fully realize the format's potential. HD-DVD's success and popularity, IMO anyway, depends on when the mainstream audience makes all of the necessary hardware changes first. Furthermore, it's quite possible that HD-DVD's initial high cost will not offset the sharp price drops in the existing DVD format, making the latter even more popular and in-demand than it is now.

And in short, my answer is, HD-DVD is certainly not "around the corner" in that regard. Wait until the format proves itself first before you think about committing yourself to the "next greatest thing." Speculating about future technology is exciting but not really practical; we shouldn't automatically assume it's going to replace standard DVDs, it's just too many of us share that natural hope (or fear) that it will.

jough
02-16-04, 02:19 PM
The extra disc space for HD discs will be taken up by the audio and video. In fact, with AOD (the HD-DVD standard) there will be LESS room for extras than with current DVD (provided the extras are HD as well).

Blu-Ray offers a bit more space (about 7Gb more for a single layered disc, and 14 for a dual) than HD-DVD, and I hope it wins the format war, because it is a superiour format in just about every way.

C_Fletch
02-16-04, 02:34 PM
"How many people do you know - outside of this forum - that really care about anything other than the fact they do not have to rewind it a DVD. "

No one.

In fact the only time I have ever heard anyone comment on anything DVD related it was in reference to the sound and NOT the picture.

CF

bboisvert
02-16-04, 02:55 PM
Does the thought of something better "worry" me?

No.

Does the thought of something better "make me happy"?

Damn right it does.


I find the question itself to be strange. Better = well, better. It's in the very definition of the word. You can still play your existing DVDs until you're old and gray. But why would anyone worry/not want something "better"?

Dammit
02-16-04, 04:23 PM
Originally posted by bboisvert


But why would anyone worry/not want something "better"?

Because some people think that a better format will devalue their current collection/render it obsolete/eat their children.

One might go as far as to say it's related to little d**k syndrome. Some people can't deal with other people having better "equipment" than they do. Others might respond by saying some people want the best equipment to compensate for their own equipment. lol

I say who cares just gimme! Blu-ray, AOD, whatever. I've been watching a lot of HD lately and DVD's low resolution becomes more and more apparent once you get used to HD.

Side rant: HBO is getting on my nerves with the whole zooming in 2:35:1 movies to fit the 16x9 screen thing. It seriously degrades the image quality unless the transfer was made that way but it's obvious a lot of them on HBO were definitely NOT made that way. /end side rant

Cocopugg
02-17-04, 01:23 AM
Originally posted by Dammit
Because some people think that a better format will devalue their current collection/render it obsolete


Nah, I think VHS wearing out and looking alot crappier than DVD is why DVD has taken over. HD DVD doesn't offer anything new to make me want to switch over. If you like old shows, then the regular DVD format will be even better to have them on than HD DVD, because HD DVD will show every piece of dirt, scratch or other impurities so much, you will actually hate the format. To me regular DVD is what I will stay with until I die. Hopefully at least another 40 yrs :)

CP