Mr. Cinema

Per Deadline Hollywood, early Friday and weekend estimates:

1. Shutter Island (Paramount) NEW [2,991 Theaters]
Friday $13.5M, Estimated $35M Weekend

2. Valentine's Day (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,665 Theaters]
Friday $5.6M (-61%), Estimated Weekend $17M, Estimated Cume $89M

3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians (Fox) Week 2 [3,396 Theaters]
Friday $4.0M (-58%), Estimated Weekend $16M, Estimated Cume $62M

4. Avatar (Fox) Week 10 [2,582 Theaters]
Friday $4.0M, Estimated Weekend $16M, Estimated Cume $687M

5. The Wolfman (Universal) Week 2 [3,223 Theaters]
Friday $3.0M (-68%), Estimated Weekend $9.0M, Estimated Cume $49.5M

6. Dear John (Relativity/Sony) Week 3 [3,062 Theaters]
Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $66.2M

7. Tooth Fairy (Fox) Week 5 [2,523 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $50M

8. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) Week 10 [1,089 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $3.0M, Estimated Cume $21.5M

9. From Paris With Love (Lionsgate ) Week [2,311 Theaters]
Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $21.2M

10. Edge of Darkness (Alcon/Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,118 Theaters]
Estimated weekend $2.3M, Estimated Cume $40.5M

---------------------------------

Poor Wolfman. That looks like around a 70% drop for the weekend. O-U-C-H. I was hoping it would hold a little better, but it reminds me of Friday the 13th's pattern last year. That opened to over $40 mil and dropped 80% in weekend 2. I'm not sure Wolfman will be able to even double its opening, which would put it around $62 mil.

islandclaws

Great numbers for Marty on Shutter Island. Word of mouth has been good; I'd love to see it crack $100m for him.

Sucks for Wolfman. Guess we won't be seeing any big budget werewolf films for a while again.

Fucking Avatar. Week #10 and it's still doing north of $15m! That's incredible.

Troy Stiffler

Poor Avatar.

Good for Scorcese & Co.! Can't wait to see what they do next.

Joe Molotov

It seems like only months ago it was having 50+ Million weekends.

Matthew Chmiel

Argh, I didn't see this thread due to the non-clever thread title.

I think Shutter Island was a success due to the last Marty / Leo outing. While Gangs of New York and The Aviator didn't set the world on fire, everyone seemed to love The Departed.

It's interesting to see all three of last week's openings all drop significantly huge this weekend, most likely due to the negative word of mouth on all three. I was more shocked to see some Facebook statuses trashing Chris Columbus as a director from people who don't know that much about cinema or film in general. Christ, I've been saying that for years (motherfucker ruined Rent).

I am curious to see how My Name Is Khan does in it's second weekend. It had one of the biggest PSAs last weekend and Fox Searchlight barely expanded it in it's second weekend (only by a handful of screens). I want to see it, but at the same time, I know of not a single person that has seen it (Rotten Tomatoes only has four reviews posted).

Dr. DVD

Good for Scorsese. Shutter isn't perfect, but I think it could easily be stated it's the best (new) movie released to date in 2010. Everyone walking out of my showing yesterday seemed to like it, so hopefully it can stick around.

Mr. Cinema

Here's Deadline Hollywood talking about The Wolfman:

That movie's complete disintegration is another story of this weekend. A legacy of fired Universal Pictures chief Marc Shmuger, the film cost a giant $200M (but with tax credits the net budget came down to about $175M). Not only did the pic drop huge domestically, but it also fell apart overseas where it hadn't opened particularly well any way. As one of my financial sources says, "This is a huge, huge writeoff."

Matthew Chmiel

I want to know how much the actual film cost (i.e. production, post, etc). I'm assuming a good portion of that $175 - 200 million came from just trying to get the project off the ground (i.e. hiring writers to script, directors, etc). There's also money wasted by having Rick Baker and his team on board developing effects for the film that just never got used.

I wonder if Romanek had a pay or play deal.

cranberries fan

Yeah poor Wolfman (there was maybe less than 25 people at the showing I was at today).

I like it and will buy the Blu when it comes out for sure.

Defiant1

I know. What a bomb!

JumpCutz

Yikes!
So The Wolfman is indeed the critically lambasted financial disaster many had predicted months ago?
A clusterfuck of overspending, bad decisions and general movie making malaise.
What a surprise.

johnnysd

Wow, if Avatar wins Best Oicture it could actually do $800m domestic

RichC2

Winning Best Pic doesn't give THAT big of a boost.

Dr. DVD

Interesting statement. So by "legacy" and "write-off" does that mean they are going to lay the blame at some fired ex-chief's doorstep and act like it never happened?

Rypro 525

I am very currious to see how Cop Out does next week. If it makes more then 30 mil overall, it will be Smith's highest grossing flick.

Mr. Cinema

Box Office Mojo Estimates:

1 N Shutter Island Par. $40,200,000 - 2,991 - $13,440 $40,200,000 $80 1
2 1 Valentine's Day WB $17,160,000 -69.5% 3,665 - $4,682 $87,422,000 $52 2
3 4 Avatar Fox $16,100,000 -31.8% 2,581 -104 $6,238 $687,821,000 - 10
4 3 Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief Fox $15,300,000 -51.0% 3,396 +40 $4,505 $58,760,000 $95 2
5 2 The Wolfman Uni. $9,846,000 -68.7% 3,223 +1 $3,055 $50,315,000 $150 2
6 5 Dear John SGem $7,300,000 -54.6% 3,062 +87 $2,384 $65,971,000 $25 3
7 6 Tooth Fairy Fox $4,500,000 -25.7% 2,523 -225 $1,784 $49,867,000 $48 5
8 9 Crazy Heart FoxS $3,025,000 -29.1% 1,089 +84 $2,778 $21,585,000 $7 10
9 7 From Paris with Love LGF $2,500,000 -54.5% 2,311 -411 $1,082 $21,200,000 $52 3
10 8 Edge of Darkness WB $2,210,000 -54.4% 2,118 -497 $1,043 $40,314,000 $80 4

Mr. Cinema

That's what it sounds like. This looks to be an even worse disaster than Evan Almighty, which at least managed to get to $100 mil domestic, even though its budget was enormous. I wonder if that guy greenlit that film too.

Dr. DVD

Well, FWIW, The Wolfman in its original form, Romanek directing with make-up and FX by Rick Baker, must have looked like a winner. However, given Universal's abhorrent output as of late, sounds like they needed to fire him.

Mr. Cinema

I believe the reason given for Universal firing Romanek was due to budget concerns, which now sounds absurd given the numbers we've seen.

The Antipodean

Maybe then he can afford to buy his own plane.

GameOver

Avatar is surpassing all expectations,look for possibly 800 million Domestic now and maybe even 3 Billion overall...

Geofferson

Looks like the ridiculous amount of marketing for Shutter Island paid off.

raven56706

Avatar did me a favor, it beat titanic in the all time list...i can sleep better now

Matthew Chmiel

It wont past $750 million and that's being generous. Unless it wins Best Picture, but I don't see it making more than $800 million.

The film suffered its biggest drop yet this weekend (32%). Its biggest drop previously was in weekend eight (two weekends ago) when it dropped 27%.

Of course, that doesn't stop the film from standing still with no drop at all similar to weekend nine. Even if that's the case, the film will be on it's (relative) last legs when we move into weekend twelve when Alice takes over a majority of the 3D screens out there. Everyone seems to forget this fact.

resinrats

I'd say Avatar will have $700M by next weekend.